Can Ryan Goins stick?

[Boxcar]

Just so its official, GD has taken the under on Goins getting 1 WAR (Given a reasonable amount of playing time). Gruber and I are taking the over

 

Easy money for Gordon Douglas.

[GD]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUUq58cyY9o

 

 

What's the PA cutoff? Like 500 PA? I dunno.

[John_Havok]

I'd say 550. If Goins is going to be the man, he should be well over 600

[Olerud363]

I'd say 550. If Goins is going to be the man, he should be well over 600

 

Brendan Ryan has never gotten 500 plate appearances and has a couple of 3 WAR and a 4 WAR season.

 

If Goins gets 550 plate appearances he has to have more than 1 WAR.

 

They aren't going to give him time unless he's playing well... And I mean well for him would be .250, .260 with an on base hovering around .300.

 

If he hit .186 or something... or if his D falls apart they stop playing him.

[John_Havok]

Well if y'all want to agree on 500, that's fine too. It's a nice round cutoff

[Olerud363]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUUq58cyY9o

 

 

What's the PA cutoff? Like 500 PA? I dunno.

 

What happens if he gets 1+ WAR in less than 500 PA like last year?? I am not sure if this is a great bet. If he gets 500 plate appearances he's playing well. Whatever the case he'll start out hitting 9th, possibly be platooned, get pinch hit for... so if he's starts hitting as bad as you think he will he won't get 500 PAs.

 

It would be hilarious if you guys agree that he HAS to have 500 plate appearances to avoid a short sample size flukey season of 1+ WAR kind of like last years 35 games.

 

Then he is awesome with a mid summer injury. Hits .288 .344 .412, ridiculous D, but 497 plate appearances.... 5 WAR !!! But you win because he didn't get 500 plate appearnaces.

[GD]

I'd be a little cautious on that actually on the over. If he gets that many PA's, he's probably going to surpass 1 WAR because it means he is actually playing well.

 

s***. yeah. Would 350 or something be better?

[gruber92]

s***. yeah. Would 350 or something be better?

 

What? Are you serious? I'd say 525.

[GD]

I don't know jack about betting lol.

 

I like what JFaS suggested, I think.

[Laika]

Maybe a better, more simple bet - will Goins get 550 PA? (or 500)

 

If he sucks then he won't (in extreme likelihood).

 

If he doesn't blow chunks then he probably will.

[GD]

Maybe a better, more simple bet - will Goins get 550 PA? (or 500)

 

If he sucks then he won't (in extreme likelihood).

 

If he doesn't blow chunks then he probably will.

 

He could hit .250/.275/.300 and be called a passable bat with great defense from the eye test and get those 550 PA knowing this org. I like the WAR/xPA.

[Caper]

500 PAs would be 499 PAs too many

 

Why would you want to give a guy 1 PA?

[GD]

Why would you want to give a guy 1 PA?

 

Same reason you'd give Sean Nolin 1.1 IP.

 

There is no justifiable reason

[theblujay]

I don't care how you structure it to make it work. I'll take Goins passing 1 WAR if he's given consistent time as the starter.

[gruber92]

A bet like this should should be WAR/600 PA with 300 PA for action. If you use 500 or 600 PA gruber can't lose - Goins will either play well and meet the threshold or suck and void the bet by not meeting the threshold.

 

Make it 400 PA for action and its on.

[gruber92]

My client won't go a single PA above 350 for action.

 

400 PA batting ninth is equivalent to about 100 games. Anything under that isn't sufficient enough playing time,especially for a rookie who projects to have a wRC+ in the low 60's. Agreed?

[G-Snarls]

Same reason you'd give Sean Nolin 1.1 IP.

 

There is no justifiable reason

 

Brilliant

[Caper]

Same reason you'd give Sean Nolin 1.1 IP.

 

There is no justifiable reason

 

What was that reason?

[theblujay]

Gordie I'll do an avatar bet on o/u 1 WAR/600 PA for Goins (min 350 PAs). Winner determines the other person's avatar for a certain amount of time.

[GD]

What was that reason?

 

Quote the post

[GD]

I'm in if GD isn't.

 

I'll let you have this one, I'm not really interested in an avatar bet. Also, now I have even more reason to hope that Goins is genuinely good.

[theblujay]

I'm in if GD isn't.

 

Ok let's do it

[theblujay]

I'll let you have this one, I'm not really interested in an avatar bet. Also, now I have even more reason to hope that Goins is genuinely good.

 

Good excuse. You just know I'm gonna win

[GD]

Good excuse. You just know I'm gonna win

 

I'll be included in the bet for pure bragging rights

[gruber92]

Let's set the minimum amount of PA at 400 and we're off.

[theblujay]

Not to delve too far into the wonderfully exciting world of internet message board avatar bets, but essentially your stance is that he'll be better than "scrub" level (scrub level = below 1 WAR). So he could be anywhere from a bench/role player level to a future HOFer, and you'd win. What this means for the other side is that he has to be an absolute pile of poo for them to win. The type of guy who really should not have a job, at all, in the majors ... let alone as a starter. And, yet, you're asking for a minimum PA, as well? So not only does he absolutely have to suck the suck, but the organization has to be dumb enough to give that suck at least 2/3 of a season's worth of PAs? Have a little more integrity than that.

They are 100% convinced of this without any doubt

[G-Snarls]

This thread will get bumped all year, every time he has a good game or a bad one

 

Prepare yourselves

[Convo]

Goins goins gone!

[Olerud363]

Not to delve too far into the wonderfully exciting world of internet message board avatar bets, but essentially your stance is that he'll be better than "scrub" level (scrub level = below 1 WAR). So he could be anywhere from a bench/role player level to a future HOFer, and you'd win. What this means for the other side is that he has to be an absolute pile of poo for them to win. The type of guy who really should not have a job, at all, in the majors ... let alone as a starter. And, yet, you're asking for a minimum PA, as well? So not only does he absolutely have to suck the suck, but the organization has to be dumb enough to give that suck at least 2/3 of a season's worth of PAs? Have a little more integrity than that.

 

I predicted that Goins could hit .260 with a .305 on base percentage and have a 1 WAR or maybe 2 based on defense. I said this was an optimistic prediction and conceded the downside is huge for Goins.

 

I was told I was basically deranged, delusional, crazy, incompetent. I got flamed and trashed.

 

I think the Gruber guy is a bit aggressive, but the other side is just as agressive. They are the ones saying "bring it on".

 

Basically if you do not predict Ryan Goins will suck, if you do not predict he will suck the suck you are trashed on this board by some people. If you do not predict Ryan Goin will be a pile of poo you are trashed. If you predict Ryan Goins will be the 7th worst hitter in baseball you are trashed. The only way to not get trashed is to basically predict he will be the very worst hitter in baseball by a large margin.

 

So I am not sure the Gruber guy is at fault. The other side is strongly confident Ryan Goins will be an absolute disaster and are happy to take bets on it.

 

The plate appearance is needed because it is always possible he breaks an ankle, or the Jays make a move in May or something and through know fault of his own Goins doesn't get enough playing time.

[KingKat]

 

 

If you predict Ryan Goins will be the 7th worst hitter in baseball you are trashed. The only way to not get trashed is to basically predict he will be the very worst hitter in baseball by a large margin.

 

 

BS much?