Can Ryan Goins stick?

[KingKat]

I have a question: what made his uzr so high? He certainly looked like an excellent defender, but not GOAT. You don't go on good luck streaks on defense, like how you would point to a high babip.

 

You can convert an inordinate number of difficult plays over a small sample (plays that just don't come up with the same frequency over a full season). It's not the ability that warps the sample (clearly the ability is there), it's the type of plays that warp the sample. He saved an exceptional amount of runs over his small sample. It simply won't be possible for him to provide that kind of value over a full season (unless as has been stated, he's the best defender of all time).

[KingKat]

That's ridiculous. Defense is subject to just as much streakiness, which is why it takes three years for defensive stats like UZR to stabilize to the player's true talent level.

 

Defense isn't a constant. Players do have good and bad runs on defense but there are plays that some players simply can't make. Goins can make good plays. He may also provide more misplays over a full season but it's not a stretch to conclude he is a good defender even if you need a much larger sample to determine just how good. As I posted above, the opportunity to provide defensive value isn't distributed evenly over a season no matter how good your are defensively. That's the fishy part of his sample for me. Not that he's not as good as he looked (I'm willing to believe that he is) more that he won't possibly provide as much value over a larger sample.

[Boxcar]

I love how you guys ripped me for hating that Phillips trade idea, and now all these renowned posters start trashing it too and you guys go quiet.

 

People ripped you for thinking that Phillips is barely an upgrade on Goins, dumbass.

[Boxcar]

I've never seen someone with such a huge false sense of superiority. What do you even mean reading comprehension? It's painfully simple. You liked the trade before NJH and BTS didn't.

 

You're surely aware that BTS came up with that trade idea in the first place, right? He started hating on it because board celebrity superstar NJH said it was ridiculous. BTS is dumn.

[flafson]

Originally Posted by King View Post

I DEFINITELY AGREE BTS NJH YOU GUYS ARE GODS LET ME SUCK YOUR DICK

 

Did he really say that?

[GD]

I don't care about his UZR. We all know defensive stats are nowhere near perfect anyway.

 

I don't really know much about defensive stats so I don't know about how uzr works and what the other defensive stars say about him

 

Lol get the f*** out. This is why I cannot stand anything you say. You act like an expert on s*** you know nothing about. If you don't know anything about defensive stats how the hell would you even know they're not reliable? Because over a large enough sample, they are, so either educate yourself or stop chiming in on s*** you don't know or understand.

 

Did he really say that?

 

Totally.

[GD]

This thread has inspired a new avatar for me.

 

I can't see it on my phone but anything is better than Mario in a god damn Man City uni.

[JSFIP]

I can't see it on my phone but anything is better than Mario in a god damn Man City uni.

 

Lol you thought he was me. Get it together bro.

[JSFIP]

You're surely aware that BTS came up with that trade idea in the first place, right? He started hating on it because board celebrity superstar NJH said it was ridiculous. BTS is dumn.

 

Ban.

[Nox]

You don't go on good luck streaks on defense, like how you would point to a high babip.

 

Nice of you to show so succinctly 2 things you clearly have no understanding of.

[theblujay]

Nice of you to show so succinctly 2 things you clearly have no understanding of.

You seem smart most of the time so I'm not sure how you're missing this. A high BABIP is a result of good luck. This doesn't happen on defense because they play is entirely up to you and your ability once the ball is hit.

[theblujay]

Lol get the f*** out. This is why I cannot stand anything you say. You act like an expert on s*** you know nothing about. If you don't know anything about defensive stats how the hell would you even know they're not reliable? Because over a large enough sample, they are, so either educate yourself or stop chiming in on s*** you don't know or understand.

 

 

 

Totally.

 

How can you possibly tell me that one can quantify defensive ability with precision? The fact that its very hard is known without understanding sabr defensive stats.

[kcjaysfan]

This doesn't happen on defense because they play is entirely up to you and your ability once the ball is hit.

 

A fielder has no control over where the ball is hit. Over a small sample size, this can lead to fluctuations in defensive metrics, regardless of the skill of the defender.

[KingKat]

You seem smart most of the time so I'm not sure how you're missing this. A high BABIP is a result of good luck. This doesn't happen on defense because they play is entirely up to you and your ability once the ball is hit.

 

This is wrong although it is a pervasive misunderstanding. A hitter's BABIP is largely determined by the quality of the contact the hitter makes not just by luck. Luck is a factor in small sample size but over time the BABIP will normalize not to league average but to the quality of a hitter's contact (there are other complicating factors such as the way BABIP handles homeruns but basically BABIP is hitter specific). A pitcher's BABIP is much more luck driven though not necessarily completely luck driven (some exceptional pitchers such as Mariano Rivera due seem to have an ability to limit the quality of the contact they give up). Except for Rivera type outliers, pitchers BABIP will normalize to league average for the type of contact they give up (ground ball or fly ball). Hitter's BABIP normalizes to the hitter's own BABIP not to the leagues.

 

Expecting hitter's BABIP to normalize the way pitcher's BABIP does is the most persistent faux-sabermetric myth out there and a staple of terrible fantasy advice.

[KingKat]

A fielder has no control over where the ball is hit. Over a small sample size, this can lead to fluctuations in defensive metrics, regardless of the skill of the defender.

 

This is what I was trying to argue ealier but you put it much more succintly. Brett Lawrie can make three amazing, run saving, limit of the fielding range plays in a game. He won't make three of those a week much less three per game over a full season. That's why it's pretty easy for defensive value to be inflated in a small sample.

[theblujay]

This is what I was trying to argue ealier but you put it much more succintly. Brett Lawrie can make three amazing, run saving, limit of the fielding range plays in a game. He won't make three of those a week much less three per game over a full season. That's why it's pretty easy for defensive value to be inflated in a small sample.

 

The thing is you guys haven't showed me proof that Goins happened to have a lot of balls hit just at the edge of his range, giving him chances to make amazing plays. The only thing you have is the fact that no one else put up numbers similar to Goins. He's probably inflated a little because he's probably not a legendary defender, but he's still excellent.

[GD]

The thing is you guys haven't showed me proof that Goins happened to have a lot of balls hit just at the edge of his range, giving him chances to make amazing plays. The only thing you have is the fact that no one else put up numbers similar to Goins. He's probably inflated a little because he's probably not a legendary defender, but he's still excellent.

 

If he has to be a legendarily good fielding 2B just to put up roughly 1.9 fWAR/600 then he probably isn't better than a util guy.

[GD]

Lol you thought he was me. Get it together bro.

 

Oh my god I just realized it was JFaS. Jesus christ I hate Mondays.

[Nox]

You seem smart most of the time so I'm not sure how you're missing this. A high BABIP is a result of good luck. This doesn't happen on defense because they play is entirely up to you and your ability once the ball is hit.

 

Basically what the others said already. This is just a very wrong way of thinking of things. There's some degree of random variation in virtually everything.

[JSFIP]

Oh my god I just realized it was JFaS. Jesus christ I hate Mondays.

 

C'mon GD you're better than that. That's King level

[GD]

C'mon GD you're better than that. That's King level

 

Oh god I've sunk that low?

[JSFIP]

Oh god I've sunk that low?

 

No not yet.

[GD]

I don't know about you guys, but JSFIP is probably my favourite poster on the forum.

 

theblujay will be heart broken.

[theblujay]

Oh man just imagine if Goins defies the odds and becomes an everyday guy. This will be hilarious to read

[JSFIP]

I don't know about you guys, but JSFIP is probably my favourite poster on the forum.

 

I can tell you want me to make this my signature. And you have succeeded. Thanks BTS.

[GD]

Oh man just imagine if Goins defies the odds and becomes an everyday guy. This will be hilarious to read

 

Then we'll all be thrilled about the sudden emergence of a legitimate starter and be happy for him. We don't hate Goins we just try and be realistic and in the process deal with you.

[JSFIP]

You just know King is so rattled that BTS said he liked me more than him.

[GD]

You just know King is so rattled that BTS said he liked me more than him.

 

He's probably crying in his mom's basement. Poor kid just had his dreams shattered by his very own idol.

[theblujay]

GD, you can say all you want about how bad Goins is, but it doesn't change the fact that Phillips isn't close to enough of an upgrade to consider giving up all that value.

[GD]

GD, you can say all you want about how bad Goins is, but it doesn't change the fact that Phillips isn't close to enough of an upgrade to consider giving up all that value.

 

I enjoy how you change the topic when you know you're out of things to bitch about to an already resolved issue.