Can Ryan Goins stick?

[DuckDuckGose]

If you reorder it by sample size and don't exclude the small bad samples it would look like this;

 

2012: AA: 105; 618 PA

2013: AAA: 90; 418 PA

2011 A+: 109; 398 PA

2010 A: 122; 338 PA

2010 A+: 47; 182 PA

2009 A-: 114; 110 PA

2009 A: 46; 89 PA

2012 R: -8; 52 PA

2013: MLB: 107; 39 PA

 

Looks a lot less stellar

[havok24]

44 pages? You sure this isn't a Ryan Braun thread and not a Ryan Goins thread?

[theblujay]

Thames murdered minor league pitching. He was way above league average. How did he do in the MLB?

 

Goins didnt murder minor league pitching. He was even below league average in AAA this year....how is he going to do in the MLB?

 

I'm sure you could find someone who's the opposite of Thames too. How does Thames relate to Goins at all.

[GD]

Thames murdered minor league pitching. He was way above league average. How did he do in the MLB?

 

Goins didnt murder minor league pitching. He was even below league average in AAA this year....how is he going to do in the MLB?

 

I don't agree with this argument

 

Thames needed to hit a ton because he couldn't do anything else. The argument for Goins is that he can do everything else well enough to marginally hit. Like if Goins put up Thames' 96 wRC+, there's a decent chance he'd be a legitimate asset.

[theblujay]

If you reorder it by sample size and don't exclude the small bad samples it would look like this;

 

2012: AA: 105; 618 PA

2013: AAA: 90; 418 PA

2011 A+: 109; 398 PA

2010 A: 122; 338 PA

2010 A+: 47; 182 PA

2009 A-: 114; 110 PA

2009 A: 46; 89 PA

2012 R: -8; 52 PA

2013: MLB: 107; 39 PA

 

Looks a lot less stellar

All I see is that he struggled when he was promoted mid season, but then came back to the same level the following year. By that I would guess he would struggle in the MLB this year, but that hasn't happened yet

[DuckDuckGose]

Really though, everything with the exception of 2013 in AAA and 2012 in AA is now irrelevant.

 

My favourite part;

 

2012 R: -8; 52 PA

2013: MLB: 107; 39 PA

 

One was actually a larger sample than the other yet one is definitive and the other isn't even considered.

[DuckDuckGose]

Okay.... Forget the player names.

 

Player As minor league stats:

 

Age 22 2009 A+: 153 wRC+

Age 23 2010 AA: 142 wRC+

Age 24 2011 AAA: 150 wRC+

Age 24 2011 MLB: 107 wRC+

Age 25 2012 MLB: 87 wRC+

Age 25 2012 AAA: 141 wRC+

Age 26 2013 AAA: 129 wRC+

 

Player Bs minor league stats:

 

Age 24 2012: AA: 105

Age 25 2013: AAA: 90

Age 23 2011 A+: 109

Age 22 2010 A: 122

Age 22 2010 A+: 47

Age 21 2009 A-: 114

Age 21 2009 A: 46

Age 24 2012 R: -8

Age 25 2013: MLB: 107

 

Just added their ages too

[DuckDuckGose]

All I see is that he struggled when he was promoted mid season, but then came back to the same level the following year.

 

Why ignore the failure though. He succeeded at an advanced age for the level, he failed at an advanced age too.

 

By that I would guess he would struggle in the MLB this year, but that hasn't happened yet

[GD]

Looks a lot less stellar

 

Didn't think of this, smart

 

Diff/PA/BABIP

2012: AA: +12, 618, .323

2013: AAA: -2, 418, .316

2011 A+: +8, 398, .343

2010 A: +24, 338, .370

2010 A+: -55, 182, .252

2009 A-: +14, 110, .385

2009 A: -70, 89, .271

2012 R: -129, 52, .158

2013 MLB: +17, 39, .406

 

Takes a lot of shine off. His best performances have come from SSS and BABIP.

[GD]

I'm not sure why I plucked out Thames, probably because he was mentioned a lot in this thread. It might be better to find a player who is more Goins like.

 

Too much f***ing stat pasting for me, but Darwin Barney?

[theblujay]

Okay.... Forget the player names.

 

Player As minor league stats:

 

2009 A+: 153 wRC+

2010 AA: 142 wRC+

2011 AAA: 150 wRC+

2011 MLB: 107 wRC+

2012 MLB: 87 wRC+

2012 AAA: 141 wRC+

2013 AAA: 129 wRC+

 

Player Bs minor league stats:

 

2012: AA: 105

2013: AAA: 90

2011 A+: 109

2010 A: 122

2010 A+: 47

2009 A-: 114

2009 A: 46

2012 R: -8

2013: MLB: 107

 

Try adding a player that succeeded

[GD]

Try adding a player that succeeded

 

Darwin Barney seems like a fit

[theblujay]

The only time he had those low wRC+s was when he was promoted mid season. Then he made adjustments and the next year he improved. Why is this hard to understand.

[gruber92]

Thames murdered minor league pitching. He was way above league average. How did he do in the MLB?

 

Goins didnt murder minor league pitching. He was even below league average in AAA this year....how is he going to do in the MLB?

 

Again,Thames can't play defense and that is why he's at least not on an MLB bench. Why do you keep referring to offense only? It's really f***ing annoying considering Johnny Mac has had a nice MLB career.

[gruber92]

Johnny Mac shouldn't have had the career he had. Like Delmon Young or Yuniesky Betancourt.

 

But he did. Should've's and would've's don't mean s***. I'll take the word of MLB GM's and coaching staffs.

[gruber92]

When I say he shouldn't have had the career he did I mean that he had 1 WAR in 999 games and benefited greatly from an era in which the average front office was completely worthless. Like Delmon Young and Yuniesky Betancourt. He is indeed a good comp for Goins, but that's not a flattering comp.

 

No not flattering,but good enough to be on a 25 man,hopefully ours.

[gruber92]

Johhny Mac really wasn't good enough to be on a 25-man though. The people who employed him just didn't realize it.

 

He managed to stay in the bigs for a long time. His employers could not have all been idiots.

[GD]

No not flattering,but good enough to be on a 25 man,hopefully ours.

 

The only thing we're arguing is that Goins should be in no way allowed to start. On a 25 man? Sure. Absolutely. I'd take him as my 25th man. It's just the whole starting thing.

[GD]

His employers could not have all been idiots.

 

He's been employed by Dave Dombrowski, Kevin Towers, Alex Anthopoulos, and Ruben Amaro Jr off the top of my head. You'd be surprised.

[gruber92]

Pretty much. Good defender. Character guy. Useless major-leaguer.

 

Johnny Mac adds more value to a MLB roster than JPA does. Don't use the phrase "good defender" anywhere near the name Arencibia is located. Thin ice.

[gruber92]

One could day the same about Delmon Young and Yuniesky Betancourt. It shouldn't be surprising to you that most MLB teams make terrible decisions. Hell, the one that gave Mac half his pro games employs JPA Arencibia.

 

JPA is a special case for sure. Starting catcher? That is beyond any sort of cognitive rationale. If he's our starting catcher to start 2014,there could be a mutiny.

[gruber92]

This actually isn't true. Your evaluation of the worth of a defensive run seems to be off.

 

True enough,Johnny had a few seasons a hairline under 0 WAR. If he could only hit just a little,man his bat was bad.

[GD]

If he could only hit just a little,man his bat was bad.

 

I feel like we'll be saying this about a certain someone soon enough.

[GD]

Gose? Arencibia?

 

Goins, lol.

[gruber92]

Its actually a nice example of how important something like WAR is. You've obviously been watching the game a long time, and can probably play it pretty well. However, even with so much exposure to the game, it just isn't possible to quantify the impact of a guy like John McDonald without advanced statistics. He's a likable guy, seems to play good defense, and maybe even seems to come up with timely hits. Because he's so likable, the inclination is that he's a useful player despite his struggles with the bat. This is based on little more than a gut feeling though.

 

Something like WAR tells you with reasonable accuracy his overall value as a player. It removes the need for guesswork and gut feelings and gets right to the only question that matters: how many runs does John McDonald provide over a replacement-level player? The answer is roughly 0. But we need the advanced stats to tell us that because neither you nor me nor major league scouts and GMs can appropriately weigh his offensive and defensive contributions without bias or guesswork.

 

Pretty much dead on when you have a large enough sample size. Johnny Mac was pretty much a NL pitcher hitting.

[G-Snarls]

At this rate, the Goins thread will be larger than the around baseball thread by the end of September.

[gruber92]

I feel like we'll be saying this about a certain someone soon enough.

 

Lol,nice.

 

I'm still going to stand by my assessment that Goins will hit enough to be on the 25 man.

 

We'll see..

[gruber92]

Gose? Arencibia?

 

JPA's soon enough has come and gone.

[G-Snarls]

JPA's soon enough has come and gone.

 

What falls from grace of this team's two top position player prospects of the past decade. The names Snider and Arencibia will remain in infamy forever.

[Abomination]

Goins' wRC+ through the years:

 

2009 A-: 114

2010 A: 122

2011 A+: 109

2012: AA: 105

2013: AAA: 90

2013: MLB: 107

 

Hmmm, one does not fit the others.

 

(BTW league average for 2B: 90 wRC+)

 

I'm not sure where to get wRC+ for minor league splits, but I find this interesting: (numbers from 2010->2013, vs righties / lefties)

 

2010: .285, .346, .385 / .217, .296, .261

2011: .290, .338, .424 / .266, .346, .351

2012: .299, .349, .412 / .265, .326, .381

2013: .287, .342, .399 / .205, .237, .295

 

Goins numbers vs righties during the last 4 years are incredibly consistent. Maybe he'll hit lefties well enough, maybe he won't, but his bat would appear to be a legit play vs righties. Maybe you play Izzy vs lefties and end up with an effective platoon at a decent price.