Kawasaki, AA, Gord Ash, Jose Cruz... a bit of history

[Olerud363]

Wow!!!

 

AA has basically just put himself in a situation where he has to win the division, or win the wild card game. Anything less including a wild card loss will be grounds to discuss his dismissal...

 

So what does Jose Cruz have to do with it?? Jose Cruz wasn't exactly Kawasaki. He was, as a young kid, a guy who hit .250, walked a lot, a real lot, and hit for middling power (middling for 1990s standards).

 

In 1998 and 1999 he got sent down and replaced by "vets". Cruz was not bad, on pace for 4 WAR in 1999, the "vets", chiefly Brian McRae in 1999 were awful. In retrospect Gord Ash was tarred and feathered by the "progressive" baseball media (mainly early baseball prospectus) for the Jose Cruz moves.

 

This was sort of a early big battle between the saber fans and the blue jays organization. Ash was almost confrontational. The fans began calling him Dr. Evil (he did dress up as Dr. Evil one day... can't remember why but he really did). Ash and his scouts basically confronted the fans and the saber community. F-U. We will outscout you and win. Screw Jose Cruz and his stupid walks.

 

This had a number of effects.

 

1. Jose Cruz was replaced by horrible players.

 

2. When Jose came back full time in 2000/2001 he lost a lot of his walks (didn't regain them until he played with San Fran later). According to WAR he was 2.7 in 100 games in 1999, but regressed to 2 in 150 or so by 2001. His numbers looked way better to Cito and Ash, but weren't.

 

3. It seemed to send a message to the team "we don't value a good approach at the plate".

 

Now we send down a guy with a 24-23 bb/k, and keep a guy with a 6-49 bb/k, a lower slugging, and an on base 100 points lower.

 

I know Kawasaki will probably be back. But Jose Cruz came back too. But not the same. And the message to the team was "we don't care about approach at the plate. You'll be sent down anyway, be aggressive boys!".

 

Who cares if a player has a .230 on base percentage. It doesn't matter. It's about scouting, and never losing an assett. Right??

 

It might be. But AA has put himself into a corner. If the team has a horrible record he will be tarred and feathered. If they win 86 games, or even get a wild card but lose the play-in every single move will be analyzed and AA will still be tarred and feathered as Ash was in 1999.

 

AA has made his life difficult. Barrying a deep playoff run he will get a lot of criticism for giving roster space and playing time to horrible players like Boni. In the end if it's 86 wins, and we needed 90 there will be all kinds of decisions (including this one) that people will look at closely, a win lost here, and a win lost there.

[HERPDERP]

Never thought I'd see the 5-tool, all-star potential Jose Cruz compared with the 1-tool Japanese player.

[dineke]

That's one of the things I hate about AA... Make a bunch of big moves in the off season but then bring in useless role players.

[Olerud363]

Never thought I'd see the 5-tool, all-star potential Jose Cruz compared with the 1-tool Japanese player.

 

You don't get it mr. HerpDerp.

 

We are looking at performance not "tools".

 

Boni has lots of tools, defence, speed, gap power, average, aggressiveness, tooliness, arm, clutchiness?? Is that a tool?? I know Kawasaki has clutch hits, but does he have the clutch tool?? I don't think so. Boni does right??

 

Tools are a bunch of garbage for idiots. What matters is reality. Mr. Herp Derp, you yourseltf might have a tonne of tools. I don't know. And I don't care.

 

Reality is strike out to walk ratio, on base percentage, defensive metrics. Slugging. War. They may not be perfect. But better then the toolshed.

 

The similarity between Cruz and Kawasaki is that both were players with a good strikeout to walk ratio, a good approach at the plate, and according to WAR were both doing OK.

 

The similarity is they both got sent down. One for "vets", one for "toolsheds".

 

Ash was slammed for this in retrospect, and the same may happen to AA. AA has put himself now into a situation where he has to go deep in the playoffs.

 

AA, like Ash makes moves that are anti-sabermetric... so even when Gordie Ash won 88 games he still got slammed because the saber people pointed out all the little moves that lost a win here, and a win there and prevented a playoff appearance.

 

So now AA is in the same situation. If the Blue Jays win 86 and Boni has 500 place appearances with a .230 on base percentage then AA deserves to be fired.

[Deadpool]

AA has basically just put himself in a situation where he has to win the division, or win the wild card game. Anything less including a wild card loss will be grounds to discuss his dismissal...

 

This is pretty hyperbolic. From a baseball standpoint, the Kawasaki move was not the right move, but from an asset management it, arguably, was.

 

(Edit: Man, that was a lot of commas...)

 

Kawasaki is 31, he is what he is. They're not sending him down to learn how to walk less and hit for more power.

 

 

Never thought I'd see the 5-tool, all-star potential Jose Cruz compared with the 1-tool Japanese player.

 

By the standard definition, he's probably a 2 tool player (speed and fielding, lacking a true hit tool, power or an arm), however, I'd argue that his ability to work a count and draw walks at a rate much higher than most of his teammates could give him an unofficial 3rd tool.

[Olerud363]

This is pretty hyperbolic. From a baseball standpoint, the Kawasaki move was not the right move, but from an asset management it, arguably, was.

 

(Edit: Man, that was a lot of commas...)

 

Kawasaki is 31, he is what he is. They're not sending him down to learn how to walk less and hit for more power.

 

 

 

 

By the standard definition, he's probably a 2 tool player (speed and fielding, lacking a true hit tool, power or an arm), however, I'd argue that his ability to work a count and draw walks at a rate much higher than most of his teammates could give him an unofficial 3rd tool.

 

His arm is only average for a short stop, possibly a bit below average (for a short stop), but his arm is as good as Maicers or Boni's. His arm would be very good for a second basemen.

 

We don't really know about his hit tool yet... he was OK in Japan. He hasn't had enough at bats in North America for us to know yet.

 

Can he hit hard line drives at a level with Boni and Maicer?? No question. I saw his game winning double ("I am Japanese game") live, watched his homer, his triples. There is no doubt when he connects he can hit the ball hard... so even though he is a noodle he is not limited that way, he can hit the ball out, and way out of the infield. So like Boni and Maicer the question is how often can he can hit the ball hard?? That is hard to scout.

 

So this isn't hyperbole. There was a choice between a number of players. We rejected the one with a great bb/k ratio. That has effects beyond the immediate move.

[CHRIS]

The fans began calling him Dr. Evil (he did dress up as Dr. Evil one day... can't remember why but he really did).

 

Gord Ash was very, very bald.

[CHRIS]

That's one of the things I hate about AA... Make a bunch of big moves in the off season but then bring in useless role players.

 

This is what I find frustrating as well.

 

"WE'RE ALL IN! Well, kinda."

- AA

[Olerud363]

This is pretty hyperbolic. From a baseball standpoint, the Kawasaki move was not the right move, but from an asset management it, arguably, was.

 

(Edit: Man, that was a lot of commas...)

 

Kawasaki is 31, he is what he is. They're not sending him down to learn how to walk less and hit for more power.

 

 

 

 

By the standard definition, he's probably a 2 tool player (speed and fielding, lacking a true hit tool, power or an arm), however, I'd argue that his ability to work a count and draw walks at a rate much higher than most of his teammates could give him an unofficial 3rd tool.

 

So what I am trying to say is that at the end of the season we end up looking back and analyzing what happened. You look at the team and you say "how did so and so get all those at bats??", he really messed up. And why did so and so lose playing time??

 

In the late 90s it was Jose Cruz that was the guy. At the end of the day Jacob Brumfield, Brian Macrae, and a 20 year old very raw Vernon Wells, got significant time in center. And in November you'd look back and say "wft?? How did that happen". Fire Gordie Ash.

 

AA has put himself in the same boat. Jays win 86. Boni has 500 plate appearances with a .250 oba and -2 WAR. Kawasaki does eventually come back and play well for a bit but only gets 250 plate appearances. People will say "wtf?? how did that happen??".

 

AAs moves still might work out. Who knows. But he's raised the stakes. That's all I'm saying. He's at the point where has to win big, or everything will (justifiably) be criticized.

[Deadpool]

So this isn't hyperbole. There was a choice between a number of players. We rejected the one with a great bb/k ratio. That has effects beyond the immediate move.

 

It was hyperbole when you said: "Anything less including a wild card loss will be grounds to discuss his dismissal... ". If AA is going to be fired, I should hope demoting Munenori Kawasaki in late June is not the reason.

 

Small issues with your grading. Firstly, the 20/80 scale (typically used to define "tools") doesn't account for position, so you can't say "he has power for a second baseman" or "he has a good arm for a second baseman" when using the generally accepted definition of "tools". And you'd have to work pretty damn hard to convince me that Kawasaki would have anything approaching a power tool, even for a second baseman.

 

I will grant you that he had an excellent hit tool (.297 career average) while he was in Japan. I haven't seen it translate as of yet, but I'll accept that it might.

 

That said, I would prefer Kawasaki to Bonifacio on this team and PROBABLY Izturis (though, Izturis has decent career numbers and a bit more positional flexibility), but without finding a trading partner, letting either of those assets walk for nothing (particularly when you'd be on the hook for all of Izzy's salary even if he signed with another team, which he would) is not the right move.

 

I'd have put Melky on the DL, or optioned Loup if it were my call to make.

[Deadpool]

So what I am trying to say is that at the end of the season we end up looking back and analyzing what happened. You look at the team and you say "how did so and so get all those at bats??", he really messed up. And why did so and so lose playing time??

 

In the late 90s it was Jose Cruz that was the guy. At the end of the day Jacob Brumfield, Brian Macrae, and a 20 year old very raw Vernon Wells, got significant time in center. And in November you'd look back and say "wft?? How did that happen". Fire Gordie Ash.

 

AA has put himself in the same boat. Jays win 86. Boni has 500 plate appearances with a .250 oba and -2 WAR. Kawasaki does eventually come back and play well for a bit but only gets 250 plate appearances. People will say "wtf?? how did that happen??".

 

AAs moves still might work out. Who knows. But he's raised the stakes. That's all I'm saying. He's at the point where has to win big, or everything will (justifiably) be criticized.

 

Man, we had Cito managing this team forFREAKINGever, so we've all seen washed up has beens get at bats they didn't deserve over say, Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado and even Travis Snider (rookies riding the pine FTW!).

 

There's a difference between playing aging vets over young up-and-comers and this situation, in that Kawasaki is 31 years old and you're not "developing" him at all.

 

Also, there is nothing hyperbolic in saying that "[AA] will (justifiably) be criticized." for this move. That's possible, even probable. When you say it's grounds for dismissal that's when we take the exaggeration train to hyperbole town.

[Olerud363]

Gord Ash was very, very bald.

 

Gord Ash wasn't as slick as AA. Wasn't as good politically. But like AA he was a baseball outsider with a big scouting staff. And they did develop players.

 

Wells, Halladay, Rios, McGowan looked good for a while. Felipe Lopez looked good, Josh Phelps. The farm looked very, very good at times.

 

But he wasn't sabermetric savy... and he always made a couple of stupid moves that tanked the team.

 

What is the difference between AA and Gord Ash?? Both outsiders, big scouting staff, never won a thing.

 

This is why I'm saying that AA now has to win big. If AA just wins 86 like Ash, then he's Gord Ash without developing a farm system. That is he's lower then low. A failure of epic porportions.

[Olerud363]

Gord Ash was very, very bald.

 

ha ha... I first read that as "very, very, bad" which is why I replied with the AA/Ash comparison.

 

But yes he was very, very, bald. They are both fat. Gord Ash was fatter I think, but older. AA will probably be just as fat if not more fat as he ages. AA has much better hair which is very important when talking to Rogers suits. AA won't be slammed quite as much as Ash was because he has better hair.

 

Ash - developed better players.

AA - didn't develop a farm system, but had much better hair.

 

5 tools for GMs?? Tallness, Hair, shmooziness, fatness (or lack of)... what else?? AA is a 2-tool GM, hair and shmooziness, average height. Very fat and will likely get fatter as he ages.

[dmrich28]

ha ha... I first read that as "very, very, bad" which is why I replied with the AA/Ash comparison.

 

But yes he was very, very, bald. They are both fat. Gord Ash was fatter I think, but older. AA will probably be just as fat if not more fat as he ages. AA has much better hair which is very important when talking to Rogers suits. AA won't be slammed quite as much as Ash was because he has better hair.

 

Ash - developed better players.

AA - didn't develop a farm system, but had much better hair.

 

5 tools for GMs?? Tallness, Hair, shmooziness, fatness (or lack of)... what else?? AA is a 2-tool GM, hair and shmooziness, average height. Very fat and will likely get fatter as he ages.

 

I hope you're kidding because I just spit out my coffee laughing

[Olerud363]

This is what I find frustrating as well.

 

"WE'RE ALL IN! Well, kinda."

- AA

 

We can't give Travis Snider 500 at bats in 2010 because we are only 10 games back and we gotta keep trying, a miracle might happen and we want good old Cito to have the best team (Fred Lewis and all) to try and get him out on a winning note.

 

But we can give Boni 500 at bats in 2013... because.... because... WE CANT LOSE A GUY WITH BONI-TOOLS NO MATTER WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Olerud363]

I hope you're kidding because I just spit out my coffee laughing

 

Kidding?? I'm not really kidding. I mean I'm plagarizing Scott Adams and Dilbert quite a bit. But I used to read Dilbert in College in the late 90s... it was real big then. And I thought Scott Adams was kidding, but looking back with 10+ years of experience in the work force I realize he wasn't kidding at all.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that in a coorporation like Rogers, AAs hair and confidence will get cut him a bit more slack then Gord Ash would get.

 

I mean AA allready has had Jeff Blair write the AA-Jesus-Saviour book... Gord Ash in 97 did the same thing (Clemens and all) and didn't get a Jesus-saviour-book. Hair is important. Especially if you want to get compared to Jesus. Jesus had good hair.

[KSaw]

Gord Ash wasn't as slick as AA. Wasn't as good politically. But like AA he was a baseball outsider with a big scouting staff. And they did develop players.

 

Wells, Halladay, Rios, McGowan looked good for a while. Felipe Lopez looked good, Josh Phelps. The farm looked very, very good at times.

 

But he wasn't sabermetric savy... and he always made a couple of stupid moves that tanked the team.

 

What is the difference between AA and Gord Ash?? Both outsiders, big scouting staff, never won a thing.

 

This is why I'm saying that AA now has to win big. If AA just wins 86 like Ash, then he's Gord Ash without developing a farm system. That is he's lower then low. A failure of epic porportions.

 

Gord Ash never had a good knowledge of his own system. That is a common comment that has been made by many baseball people over the years. And when one looks back and sees Ash dealing off Michael Young or releasing Casey Blake, along with other talent loss moves, one has to wonder.

 

Lets also remember that Toronto had Bob Engle, Tim Wilken and Chris Buckley scouting back then. Wilken and Buckley are now Scouting Directors in the Major Leagues.

[TheHurl]

If the Jays continue over 30K on average and have sell outs like the July 1st game, AA will not be fired. Plain and simple.

[DuckDuckGose]

Wow!!!

 

AA has basically just put himself in a situation where he has to win the division, or win the wild card game. Anything less including a wild card loss will be grounds to discuss his dismissal...

 

So what does Jose Cruz have to do with it?? Jose Cruz wasn't exactly Kawasaki. He was, as a young kid, a guy who hit .250, walked a lot, a real lot, and hit for middling power (middling for 1990s standards).

 

In 1998 and 1999 he got sent down and replaced by "vets". Cruz was not bad, on pace for 4 WAR in 1999, the "vets", chiefly Brian McRae in 1999 were awful. In retrospect Gord Ash was tarred and feathered by the "progressive" baseball media (mainly early baseball prospectus) for the Jose Cruz moves.

 

This was sort of a early big battle between the saber fans and the blue jays organization. Ash was almost confrontational. The fans began calling him Dr. Evil (he did dress up as Dr. Evil one day... can't remember why but he really did). Ash and his scouts basically confronted the fans and the saber community. F-U. We will outscout you and win. Screw Jose Cruz and his stupid walks.

 

This had a number of effects.

 

1. Jose Cruz was replaced by horrible players.

 

2. When Jose came back full time in 2000/2001 he lost a lot of his walks (didn't regain them until he played with San Fran later). According to WAR he was 2.7 in 100 games in 1999, but regressed to 2 in 150 or so by 2001. His numbers looked way better to Cito and Ash, but weren't.

 

3. It seemed to send a message to the team "we don't value a good approach at the plate".

 

Now we send down a guy with a 24-23 bb/k, and keep a guy with a 6-49 bb/k, a lower slugging, and an on base 100 points lower.

 

I know Kawasaki will probably be back. But Jose Cruz came back too. But not the same. And the message to the team was "we don't care about approach at the plate. You'll be sent down anyway, be aggressive boys!".

 

Who cares if a player has a .230 on base percentage. It doesn't matter. It's about scouting, and never losing an assett. Right??

 

It might be. But AA has put himself into a corner. If the team has a horrible record he will be tarred and feathered. If they win 86 games, or even get a wild card but lose the play-in every single move will be analyzed and AA will still be tarred and feathered as Ash was in 1999.

 

AA has made his life difficult. Barrying a deep playoff run he will get a lot of criticism for giving roster space and playing time to horrible players like Boni. In the end if it's 86 wins, and we needed 90 there will be all kinds of decisions (including this one) that people will look at closely, a win lost here, and a win lost there.

 

I read through this thread and I have to say I do not disagree with you but, I feel you are missing the point. The Jays season doesn't rely on which one of Kawasaki or Bonifacio gets 150 ABs in a bench role the rest of the way. It relies on Bautista, Reyes, Dickey, Johnson, Lawrie, Buehrle, Morrow, Janssen and Edwin, the core players that AA has put in place and staked his reputation on. These are the guys that are going to take us to the playoffs and if they play well the team should be in striking distance in it's first playoff appearance since '93.

[DuckDuckGose]

That's assuming they don't add to this group going forward which, I'm sure they will. Plus the Jays are a game over .500, just got Reyes back and are about to get Santos, Lawrie, Perez and hopefully Morrow off the DL in the next month and a half.

[vdartanian]

Never thought I'd see the 5-tool, all-star potential Jose Cruz compared with the 1-tool Japanese player.

 

What is his one tool exactly, the ability to do headstands or the ability to induce comedy by massacring the English language.

 

I mean I like pulling for the guy, but sending Kawasaki back to AAA was 1 billion % the right move to make here.

 

Not why anyone in there right mind would question this.

 

#intangibles #funnyjap #clubhousepresents

[BabbaGanoush]

What is his one tool exactly, the ability to do headstands or the ability to induce comedy by massacring the English language.

 

I mean I like pulling for the guy, but sending Kawasaki back to AAA was 1 billion % the right move to make here.

 

Not why anyone in there right mind would question this.

 

#intangibles #funnyjap #clubhousepresents

 

Kawasaki OBP .320, Bonerface OBP .230

 

Thats why.

[LGBJ29]

You don't get it mr. HerpDerp.

 

We are looking at performance not "tools".

 

Boni has lots of tools, defence, speed, gap power, average, aggressiveness, tooliness, arm, clutchiness?? Is that a tool?? I know Kawasaki has clutch hits, but does he have the clutch tool?? I don't think so. Boni does right??

 

Tools are a bunch of garbage for idiots. What matters is reality. Mr. Herp Derp, you yourseltf might have a tonne of tools. I don't know. And I don't care.

 

Reality is strike out to walk ratio, on base percentage, defensive metrics. Slugging. War. They may not be perfect. But better then the toolshed.

 

The similarity between Cruz and Kawasaki is that both were players with a good strikeout to walk ratio, a good approach at the plate, and according to WAR were both doing OK.

 

The similarity is they both got sent down. One for "vets", one for "toolsheds".

 

Ash was slammed for this in retrospect, and the same may happen to AA. AA has put himself now into a situation where he has to go deep in the playoffs.

 

AA, like Ash makes moves that are anti-sabermetric... so even when Gordie Ash won 88 games he still got slammed because the saber people pointed out all the little moves that lost a win here, and a win there and prevented a playoff appearance.

 

So now AA is in the same situation. If the Blue Jays win 86 and Boni has 500 place appearances with a .230 on base percentage then AA deserves to be fired.

 

By the logic displayed in bold, you would have got rid of EE, Lind, Esmil, etc. by now. We all would have, but if they Jays org wasnt focusing on tools, then we would not have the 4 and 5 hitters in our lineup today. As a bench player you need tools in order to provide something significant to replace a player in the starting lineup. Ex. Boni can come in and run and steal a base. Kawasaki just does everything OK, no where does he excel over players in any tool category, so why keep a player on the bench who isn't going to be an upgrade in any area late in the game?

And why are you worrying about him changing his approach in the minors? He's 31

[LGBJ29]

Kawasaki OBP .320, Bonerface OBP .230

 

Thats why.

 

lol, oh and kawasaki can pinch run and steal on any pitch too right?

[o2cui2i]

We can't give Travis Snider 500 at bats in 2010 because we are only 10 games back and we gotta keep trying, a miracle might happen and we want good old Cito to have the best team (Fred Lewis and all) to try and get him out on a winning note.

 

But we can give Boni 500 at bats in 2013... because.... because... WE CANT LOSE A GUY WITH BONI-TOOLS NO MATTER WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

if grinning is a tool, then Boni is a 1 tool player. skills are only tools if you can do them well. Boni does a lot of s*** very s*****. he cant hit from 2 sides, plays several positions very poorly, cant throw worth a s***, has concrete hands and is a smug little s***.

 

other than that, I think he's very toolsy.

[o2cui2i]

lol, oh and kawasaki can pinch run and steal on any pitch too right?

 

Davis is better on the bases than Boni and gets on base by himself against lefties. so Boni is a lesser version of Rajai. I'm sure Davis could play some really s***** second too. just give him a chance coach. lol

[LGBJ29]

Davis is better on the bases than Boni and gets on base by himself against lefties. so Boni is a lesser version of Rajai. I'm sure Davis could play some really s***** second too. just give him a chance coach. lol

 

sure, but Davis is always in the starting lineup vs lefties, and can also get injured.

[DuckDuckGose]

So basically what you are saying is they have multiple ways to add and re-tool this team in the off-season. You've lost faith with AA which is fine but, that doesn't mean the Jays can't get better. JPA has been bad enough that he may be replaced, there is a glaring hole at 2B that can be addressed, players are coming back from injury, Lawrie may take a step forward, Stroman will be one year closer to MLB ready and there is a bevy of young controllable BP pieces that can be moved. It has been a very difficult season but, it's not all doom and gloom in T.O.

[BabbaGanoush]

lol, oh and kawasaki can pinch run and steal on any pitch too right?

 

Davis does that, and can actually hit a little. No place for Boner on this team with Davis the pinch runner and when Kawasaki can easily be a decent back up to Izzy and Reyes

[DuckDuckGose]

So adding to this group will require one of three things to happen; we move even more pieces from a pretty weak farm, payroll goes up again, or AA suddenly gets good at his job and finds wins on the cheap.

 

FA, big names if payroll goes up, value guys if it stays level

 

Trading farm pieces for someone who fits the budget

 

Trading MLB pieces; Rasmus, JPA, Delabar, Cecil, Janssen, Boni, Izturis, Rajai, Melky all could get SOMETHING back

 

Plus Hutch, Happ, Santos, Perez, Morrow and Reyes are all coming back from injury which are some significant additions