The Turnaround and Reyes

[sachmo55]

It depends on a lot of things:

 

- Is Bautista a monster who will age like Konerko and Ortiz, or will he continue to decline from his 0.375 wOBA of the last two years?

- Is Dickey an ace at this age and in this division?

- Do we continue to use an everyday catcher that is worth somewhere between -1 and 1 fWAR a season?

- Will Reyes' health and skills hold up into his 30s?

- Can Lawrie stay healthy? If so, how good is he?

- How high can payroll go?

 

To complicate matters, we have a terrible FO handicapping our results by a few wins every year due to sheer stupidity. If a lot of the above break right, we probably still won't make it but we'll be decent. If a lot don't break right, AA will be fired before the end of 2014 and we enter a 3+ year rebuild with a new GM.

 

Another question is can Buehrle continue to be crafty and successful over the next 2 years?

 

At some point that velocity is going to be too low to get by.

[Nox]

KSaw - You're being a raging homer in this thread.

 

Making the playoffs is possible but highly unlikely. That's not really up for debate.

[Abomination]

jays magic number is 93 for wild card. lol we can count down until they are mathematically done.

 

The number required is difficult to say. Assuming a 2 wildcard format, and the AL:

 

2012: 93 wins

2011: 90 wins

2010: 89 wins

2009: 87 wins

2008: 89 wins

2007: 88 wins

2006: 90 wins

2005: 93 wins

2004: 91 wins

2003: 93 wins

[KSaw]

Why are we throwing in a 10 game win streak? I mean, yah, the conditional probability of us making the playoffs given a forthcoming 10 game winning streak is obviously higher but that condition is non-sensical.

 

I merely picked a number. I could have said 7 or 6 or 8. The point was simply that streaks out of the norm occur and are factors just like hard luck losses and slumps.

[sachmo55]

KSaw - You're being a raging homer in this thread.

 

Making the playoffs is possible but highly unlikely. That's not really up for debate.

 

Its the same for most fans, when the team is winning, it feels like a big streak is imminent

When they're losing it seems like the sky is falling

[saskjayfan]

This isn't an elite team that's underachieving: they just aren't very good. Their rotation depth sucks, they get replacement-level production from C and 2B, Lawrie is out long-term, and it remains to be seen whether LF and CF are even league-average this year.

 

This team was 4th in runs scored per game in May. This was without Reyes....I wouldn't call that a not very good team. The Bullpen has been very good all year. Starting pitching...Buehrle has looked good the last 5 starts...Dickey who has battle injuries...looked amazing last start.....Johnson looked very good allowing only one earned run last start....those three horses have to carry you. When I see Dickey, Johnson and Buehrle...I don't think not very good....Rogers has pitched well lately and Morrow has great stuff...if he comes back healthy and gets on a roll you have 4 starting pitchers with good stuff...they don't have the luxury to have things not go their way...but if things click...I think you are being very harsh in your assesment..the talent level is still pretty good on this team.....Johnson's start tomorrow will be very telling...

[Nox]

I merely picked a number. I could have said 7 or 6 or 8. The point was simply that streaks out of the norm occur and are factors just like hard luck losses and slumps.

 

That's all built into the simulations that come up the commonly quoted playoff odds. Seasons with big streaks happen. That's obvious. But there's no added reason to expect one in the 2013 Jays' case.

[o2cui2i]

The number required is difficult to say. Assuming a 2 wildcard format, and the AL:

 

2012: 93 wins

2011: 90 wins

2010: 89 wins

2009: 87 wins

2008: 89 wins

2007: 88 wins

2006: 90 wins

2005: 93 wins

2004: 91 wins

2003: 93 wins

 

 

I guess you dont understand what I meant. their elimination number is 93. any combination of teams in front wining or jays losing pulls the number down.

[KSaw]

KSaw - You're being a raging homer in this thread.

 

Making the playoffs is possible but highly unlikely. That's not really up for debate.

 

Lol perhaps. But it really is my opinion. Trust me if I thought that the sky was falling I'd state that too.

[sachmo55]

This isn't an elite team that's underachieving: they just aren't very good. Their rotation depth sucks, they get replacement-level production from C and 2B, Lawrie is out long-term, and it remains to be seen whether LF and CF are even league-average this year.

 

Shut up! I'll continue my irrational and unconditional support of Rasmus regardless of any evidence that suggests otherwise

[Abomination]

I guess you dont understand what I meant. their elimination number is 93. any combination of teams in front wining or jays losing pulls the number down.

 

Got it, should have read it a little more carefully.

[KSaw]

But yes, they are a long shot. I just see a club that is moving in the right direction.

[GD]

KSaw - You're being a raging homer in this thread.

 

Wow, I'm shocked, that's so uncommon for Kirk.

[o2cui2i]

Got it, should have read it a little more carefully.

 

no worries bro. just thought this was the right thread to start a count down to meaningless baseball. lol

[GD]

Kind of an interesting thread to talk about Bautista actually.

 

29 = 0.422 wOBA

30 = 0.443 wOBA

31 = 0.378 wOBA

32 = 0.362 wOBA

 

Obviously still a very good player and dangerous bat, but it seems pretty clear that he's not what he once was. I wonder what we should expect from him in his age-33 and 34 seasons? Will he stick in the 0.370 range, or drop down towards 0.350?

 

Well he obviously isn't a .420+ wOBA bat anymore, but his wOBA is rising again after another slow start this year, so I'd say he's a fairly dangerous ~.380-.390 wOBA bat with decent power going forward. The whole Walktista thing is a very valuable skill for when he declines. Old player skills ftw lol.

[KSaw]

That's all built into the simulations that come up the commonly quoted playoff odds. Seasons with big streaks happen. That's obvious. But there's no added reason to expect one in the 2013 Jays' case.

 

Yes it's built into simulations. They haven't had one yet. Do simulations not figure at least one for a club projected for as many wins as this team was?

[sachmo55]

Kind of an interesting thread to talk about Bautista actually.

 

29 = 0.422 wOBA

30 = 0.443 wOBA

31 = 0.378 wOBA

32 = 0.362 wOBA

 

Obviously still a very good player and dangerous bat, but it seems pretty clear that he's not what he once was. I wonder what we should expect from him in his age-33 and 34 seasons? Will he stick in the 0.370 range, or drop down towards 0.350?

 

I don't really know the actual aging curve of the average power hitter, but nothing in jose's peripherals indicate much has changed: swinging at the same kind of pitches, same rate of contact, same walk and k-rates and very similar hr/fb%.

 

Only real change is a slightincrease in gb & a big increase in line drives, but those lead to an increase in babip.

 

He's currently on a babip cold spell, once it stabilizes, I think he sticks in the .370-.380 range.

[Nox]

Yes it's built into simulations. They haven't had one yet. Do simulations not figure at least one for a club projected for as many wins as this team was?

 

That, that is just not how this stuff works.

 

We are not due a 7-10 game winning streak. It may happen but it's not likely. The fact that we have not had one yet does NOT make it more likely that we will.

[sachmo55]

That, that is just not how this stuff works.

 

We are not due a 7-10 game winning streak. It may happen but it's not likely. The fact that we have not had one yet does NOT make it more likely that we will.

 

Gambler's fallacy at its finest lol

[Nox]

Gambler's fallacy at its finest lol

 

Exactly.

[Dr. Dinger]

Our playoff odds are at 0.3% currently. We should probably be happy if this team even makes it back to .500 at all.

[magits]

Kind of an interesting thread to talk about Bautista actually.

 

29 = 0.422 wOBA

30 = 0.443 wOBA

31 = 0.378 wOBA

32 = 0.362 wOBA

 

Obviously still a very good player and dangerous bat, but it seems pretty clear that he's not what he once was. I wonder what we should expect from him in his age-33 and 34 seasons? Will he stick in the 0.370 range, or drop down towards 0.350?

 

Well, he's been slumping horribly for the past week. Before that his wOBA was around 380+.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

We're currently 8.5 out of the WC with several key players due back.

 

They pretty much have to go on a run now (Road trip against a poor White Sox team and a slumping Rangers team). Huge stretch against the AL East at the end of the month might be our last realistic kick at the can.

 

It's not impossible, but the odds are so small.

[o2cui2i]

We're currently 8.5 out of the WC with several key players due back.

 

They pretty much have to go on a run now (Road trip against a poor White Sox team and a slumping Rangers team). Huge stretch against the AL East at the end of the month might be our last realistic kick at the can.

 

It's not impossible, but the odds are so small.

 

too many weak links still. we have a catcher who's number one tool is the fact that he's a tool. the upside pretty much ends after that. We have no one who can play second base, yet they send out any one of several elves they employ for their circus. Dickey and Buehrle have come around and started being useful, but the rotation has leprosy and we never know who's Dickey will fall off next.

 

we have to hope that Thole catches and hits his way into catching a LOT of games so we get less of twitter boy.

[KSaw]

That, that is just not how this stuff works.

 

We are not due a 7-10 game winning streak. It may happen but it's not likely. The fact that we have not had one yet does NOT make it more likely that we will.

 

Yes I get that all results that are based on random numbers are independent. Red can hit on roulette 120x in a row. Baseball results are not based on RNGs. Health, schedule, condition of opponents and more are factors. To say that it is likely for a team to catch a winning streak because it is getting pitching, has upcoming stretches of home games and a clubhouse that is emotionally sky high is a factor based opinion and not a they are due thing at all. Nothing is ever due.

[KSaw]

I still find it almost comical that the current club is still mirroring the 1989 Blue Jays. 27-34 is a parallel record. They finished off in first with 89 wins. They began their season just as badly. It would be fun to see the pattern continue.

[Nox]

Sure, there may be causal factors that contribute to a winning streak outside of random variation around a team's true talent level. But you can't expect said factors to line up in this one instance. They may, but it remains unlikely.

 

A proper simulation encapsulates all of this anyways.

[Chappy]

Series by series isn't good enough anymore. Two weeks ago maybe, but now there has to be some sweeps in the mix. Realistically this team needs a 7-10 game win streak this month before anyone should take them seriously.

 

Not being mathematically out of it doesn't mean this team has a chance. They haven't earned that type of optimism.

[KSaw]

Honestly I think that streaks have little to do with luck. I mean a lucky break here and there but I think that they are more about players playing well at the same time and it mentally affecting their confidence levels. It also gets into the heads of opponents and impacts how they play. Teams facing a hot team often try to attack weaknesses instead if playing to their own strengths. It's so much mental. You're hot, you're relaxed and focused. Winning or losing is contagious isn't a myth. It's not anecdotal either. It's just human factor.

[KSaw]

The '89 Jays were 42-45 at the break-- if anyone cares.

 

*12-24 start

*Same record today

*42-45 at break

*89-73 finish