The Turnaround and Reyes

[KSaw]

Firstly, very good source says that Reyes' personal target to return is June 27 as the Red Sox series begins. And while no one and I mean no one will attach a date to his probable return, July 9 seems to be the hush hush real target date.

 

Now while none of that may be exact or work out as hoped, the reality is that he ought to be back before or at least by the All-Star Break. The way the club is putting things together, they ought to be at or a couple games over .500 by then. They come out of the break and start a 10-game home stand that includes 4 games with the Astros and with Reyes. I dare say buckle up because this is far from over.

[G-Snarls]

I don't dare let myself get that optimistic about being .500 any time soon

[BlueJayWay]

Actually, it is probably over :/ Just dug themselves too deep a hole. I'd like to believe, but rationally, logically, they have a very hard path even just to get back to possibly being somewhat on the fringes of a playoff race by September.

 

Now the good news is that they can bring almost this entire club back next year, and with a few tweaks, I think are close to being a very good team. Most of the pieces are here.

[Dr Negative]

Most of the pieces except 5 starting pitchers.

[GD]

Actually, it is probably over :/ Just dug themselves too deep a hole. I'd like to believe, but rationally, logically, they have a very hard path even just to get back to possibly being somewhat on the fringes of a playoff race by September.

 

Now the good news is that they can bring almost this entire club back next year, and with a few tweaks, I think are close to being a very good team. Most of the pieces are here.

 

I agree with literally all of this. If we can upgrade catcher, get rid of Maicer, and get a lot of depth guys signed (which we'll have a LOT more of next year - Stroman, Hutch, Drabek, Sanchez, Nolin, etc), I see no reason that we wouldn't be a very good team next year. I don't honestly believe that our true talent level is how we played at the beginning of the year. We just dug ourselves a deep hole. It happens.

 

I don't trust AA to make the necessary moves, though.

[saskjayfan]

I don't dare let myself get that optimistic about being .500 any time soon

 

getting to .500 is really dependant on starting pitching...buehrle, dickey, johnson and oddly enough rogers.....the last week should at least have given you a glimmer of hope....the offense was very good in may...once reyes gets back they will be that much better...

[KSaw]

I don't dare let myself get that optimistic about being .500 any time soon

 

I hear you but from what I'm seeing, this is a team on an upswing. Dickey and Buehrle are simply starting to look quite good and JJ looks right. That's a huge leap forward.

[theblujay]

I'm thinking about it like this: As long as we are within 6 games back at the start of September we have a chance. It's gonna take an amazing run, but when healthy and performing well this team could be very good.

[GD]

This isn't an elite team that's underachieving: they just aren't very good. Their rotation depth sucks, they get replacement-level production from C and 2B, Lawrie is out long-term, and it remains to be seen whether LF and CF are even league-average this year.

 

They aren't elite by any means, but I don't think they're *bad.* I would venture to say that the biggest problem is our rotation depth, but that'll improve next year as youngins fill in. Stroman, Nolin, Hutch, all back. Drabek, even. Maybe Sanchez, depending on his development. That's some solid depth imo. We do need some more pieces, namely an upgrade at C, but I think we should be somewhat competitive next year.

 

Edit: If Jimenez develops at C quicker than expected, that's another solid piece.

[KSaw]

I'm thinking about it like this: As long as we are within 6 games back at the start of September we have a chance. It's gonna take an amazing run, but when healthy and performing well this team could be very good.

 

Honestly, I see them that close long before September but I'm also figuring on 13-8 to finish of June with the way they are looking currently.

[GD]

I'm not holding my breath. Guys like Dickey, Bautista, Edwin, and Buehrle are another year into their 30s, and we're probably losing JJ. I'm not expecting to see a winning team as long as this management group is here. I've always said I think 2013 is the best this current team will be.

 

I think that's fair and I agree that I don't think that AA will do the necessary moves to make this team a contender. But I don't think we're too far away.

[BlueJayWay]

I look at it this way. Tomorrow is game 62, so after that will be 100 games left exactly. Let's just say they win tomorrow (what the hell, JJ is due). If they go .600 from that point on (a % a lot of people thought they had a chance to do before this season), that's 60 wins plus the 28....gets them to an 88-74 finish. That might actually win the 2nd wildcard (before last season the 2nd wildcard, if it existed, would have won between 87-89 games in the AL). Even if it didn't, it would probably come close and make September pretty interesting. That's probably the far end of the "reasonable hope" curve. It probably won't happen. But it's the kind of thing that has to happen if September is not going to be another boring one.

[KSaw]

I'm not holding my breath. Guys like Dickey, Bautista, Edwin, and Buehrle are another year into their 30s, and we're probably losing JJ. I'm not expecting to see a winning team as long as this management group is here. I've always said I think 2013 is the best this current team will be.

 

I can understand you not holding your breath. This is a team that starts JPA at catcher. I see it too. I'm just a bit more positive with the way the other pieces are starting to fall into place.

[GD]

I look at it this way. Tomorrow is game 62, so after that will be 100 games left exactly. Let's just say they win tomorrow (what the hell, JJ is due). If they go .600 from that point on (a % a lot of people thought they had a chance to do before this season), that's 60 wins plus the 28....gets them to an 88-74 finish. That might actually win the 2nd wildcard (before last season the 2nd wildcard, if it existed, would have won between 87-89 games in the AL). Even if it didn't, it would probably come close and make September pretty interesting. That's probably the far end of the "reasonable hope" curve. It probably won't happen. But it's the kind of thing that has to happen if September is not going to be another boring one.

 

If there's an optimistic view I'm taking, it's this one. Makes it seem like we do have a chance haha.

[ManOnThird]

It's pretty depressing to see the types of guys Texas was bringing in to pinch hit in the 9th innning, compared to the scrubs on the Jays main lineup. One team is a winner, the other is not.

 

I see the Jays taking all season just to get to .500, and then having to listen to 'well it was a great recovery, they showed a lot of spirit and what this team is really about,' all winter long.

[theblujay]

If there's an optimistic view I'm taking, it's this one. Makes it seem like we do have a chance haha.

 

I'm just gonna take it series by series. We won this one, bonus game tomorrow

[Nox]

If they go .600 from that point on (a % a lot of people thought they had a chance to do before this season),

 

No reasonable person thought this was a 97 win team coming into the year.

[GD]

I'm just gonna take it series by series. We won this one, bonus game tomorrow

 

That's what I've been doing, haven't really been thinking about playoffs. Hope we sweep, it'd be a great statement.

[GD]

No reasonable person thought this was a 97 win team coming into the year.

 

Yeah, but I think it was reasonable to assume that we'd have a stretch of ~.600 ball or so. Obviously not 100 games long, but still.People were pretty stupid in their expectations but this seemed like a good team.

[KSaw]

If there's an optimistic view I'm taking, it's this one. Makes it seem like we do have a chance haha.

 

13-8 to finish June (difficult but realistic with the bit of current swagger they have going on)

 

8-5 in July leading up to the ASB (very realistic with the amount of home games and the opppnents)

 

10-game home stand with 4 v Houston right after the break will define their chances IMO.

[Nox]

Yeah, but I think it was reasonable to assume that we'd have a stretch of ~.600 ball or so. People were pretty stupid in their expectations but this seemed like a good team.

 

A "stretch" of 100 games at that pace is not that likely. Just because we've played under our true talent level thus far does not make it more likely we'll perform above going forward.

 

My stance on this team has not really changed. It was constructed as a 86-88 win team. Because of injuries and normal random variation, we've been worse than that. Assuming we play at our true talent rest of season, we project to miss the playoffs pretty easily.

[BlueJayWay]

No reasonable person thought this was a 97 win team coming into the year.

mmmmmmm maybe not, but a lot of projections had them had ~90 wins. And it's not outlandish for a 90 win true talent team (if you accept that's what they might be) to play at a 97 win pace for 100 games.

[o2cui2i]

jays magic number is 93 for wild card. lol we can count down until they are mathematically done.

[KSaw]

A "stretch" of 100 games at that pace is not that likely. Just because we've played under our true talent level thus far does not make it more likely we'll perform above going forward.

 

My stance on this team has not really changed. It was constructed as a 86-88 win team. Because of injuries and normal random variation, we've been worse than that. Assuming we play at our true talent rest of season, we project to miss the playoffs pretty easily.

 

I don't think it's as simple as that. Factor in injuries and slumps but you also have to factor in winning streaks that include some luck factor. Toss is just one 10-game winning streak at any point and then figure them for playing to value and it becomes close. Anything can happen and while it may be hard to rely on, emotional wins and a group of guys on a high can really rack up a bunch of wins fast.

[o2cui2i]

My stance on this team has not really changed. It was constructed as a 86-88 win team. Because of injuries and normal random variation, we've been worse than that. Assuming we play at our true talent rest of season, we project to miss the playoffs pretty easily.

 

Jays need to rethink how they approach the preseason. the team was NOT ready to play april 1st. too many AB, too many pitches and too much thought was giving to s***** players who were never going to make this team.

 

that's on AA for picking through the rubbish on an all in season and on Gibbons for not telling AA to FO.

[GD]

I don't think it's as simple as that. Factor in injuries and slumps but you also have to factor in winning streaks that include some luck factor. Toss is just one 10-game winning streak at any point and then figure them for playing to value and it becomes close. Anything can happen and while it may be hard to rely on, emotional wins and a group of guys on a high can really rack up a bunch of wins fast.

 

You can't depend/factor in luck to any teams' projections, much less this team's.

[KSaw]

Here's a question. Let's just say that they carry their current high for a bit and do run off 21-13 into the ASB like I suggest. Then they start the 10-game home stand with Reyes in the lineup and have the 4 games v the Astros during the stand. Still counting them out?

[Nox]

I don't think it's as simple as that. Factor in injuries and slumps but you also have to factor in winning streaks that include some luck factor. Toss is just one 10-game winning streak at any point and then figure them for playing to value and it becomes close. Anything can happen and while it may be hard to rely on, emotional wins and a group of guys on a high can really rack up a bunch of wins fast.

 

Why are we throwing in a 10 game win streak? I mean, yah, the conditional probability of us making the playoffs given a forthcoming 10 game winning streak is obviously higher but that condition is non-sensical.

[KSaw]

You can't depend/factor in luck to any teams' projections, much less this team's.

 

No, you can't depend on it. Agreed. Though it does just seem to happen for all teams every year at some point. Small sample sizes provide some wacky results.

[o2cui2i]

You can't depend/factor in luck to any teams' projections, much less this team's.

 

Jays are really unlucky that their GM thinks JPA is a viable major league catcher, that Bonifacio can play baseball... luck plays such a big role.

 

OBP means nothing, if you played ball you'd know that! lol