Travis Snider Pirate perfomance thread

[Nox]

They can note that hard breaking balls are currently tying up a hitter who normally handles them, as an example. .

 

Explain how this isn't 100% captured in data (flight path of the ball, result of the play, history of the players/peers all being present).

 

Then the individual's baseball IQ comes into play because he has to form an option as to why and report his opinion on whether its a glitch, a hole in the swing or just a timing thing.

 

So, in other words, force create a narrative that has no business being existing. This is exactly the type of garbage that is harmful.

[Nox]

Telling you how it is, is hardly talking out if my ass.

 

No, you're not explaining "how it is".

 

You're both trying to justify what the simple minded BlueJays do and furthermore you're attempting to project the archaic methodology across every team.

 

This is not how it works. You have no clue.

[KSaw]

You spend a fair bit of time stating that GMs, managers, coaches and scouts are wrong. And yet they all have jobs in pro baseball. Nothing is perfect but you tend to deliver the everything is wrong message. That doesn't add up. You must think that everyone working in baseball is stupid.

 

It's sort if like the shorter pitchers thing. The info now available on paper really does say that height doesn't matter. However, no stat explains why most pitchers are taller. It's easy to say that shorter guys don't get a shot but it's just as possible, even probable that most shorter guys suck and we are left with the best of the best.

[o2cui2i]

No, you're not explaining "how it is".

 

You're both trying to justify what the simple minded BlueJays do and furthermore you're attempting to project the archaic methodology across every team.

 

This is not how it works. You have no clue.

 

hey, it looked like a strike to me...

[GD]

You spend a fair bit of time stating that GMs, managers, coaches and scouts are wrong.

 

Now would be a nice time to stop pretending you know exactly what every GM, manager, and coach does.

[kcjaysfan]

You spend a fair bit of time stating that GMs, managers, coaches and scouts are wrong. And yet they all have jobs in pro baseball.

 

That's a pretty fallacious appeal to authority argument.

[CHRIS]

It's sort if like the shorter pitchers thing. The info now available on paper really does say that height doesn't matter. However, no stat explains why most pitchers are taller. It's easy to say that shorter guys don't get a shot but it's just as possible, even probable that most shorter guys suck and we are left with the best of the best.

 

Isn't it more likely that short guys got the shaft because scouts had a pre-conceived notion of what a pitching prospect should look like and helped steer their organization away from the short pitchers in favour of the tall, lanky guys? And that it took data analysis to say that short pitchers are actually okay?

[Nox]

And yet they all have jobs in pro baseball.

 

Hilarious logic.

 

You must think that everyone working in baseball is stupid.

 

Far from it. There are plenty of really, really smart people in baseball.

 

But there are enough left over from the previous generation of shallow thinking idiots that perceptions like those that you choose to promote on here run rampant enough. There's nothing wrong with calling ******** for what it is.

 

It's sort if like the shorter pitchers thing. The info now available on paper really does say that height doesn't matter. However, no stat explains why most pitchers are taller. It's easy to say that shorter guys don't get a shot but it's just as possible, even probable that most shorter guys suck and we are left with the best of the best.

 

Do you know why short pitchers don't work (as well)? Do you know why?!

 

Physics, that's why. (more to do with optics than the length of limbs too). Simple, Newtonian, deterministic physics.

 

If I feel like embarrassing you later I might post an article or paper showing as much.

[Olerud363]

Explain how this isn't 100% captured in data (flight path of the ball, result of the play, history of the players/peers all being present).

 

 

 

So, in other words, force create a narrative that has no business being existing. This is exactly the type of garbage that is harmful.

 

You're quote at the bottom was from Nicholas Taleb?? Correct?? Interesting. I see where you are coming from.

 

Taleb's philosaphy is basically that 90% of what humans do is a bunch of crap. Many make their way in the world by convincing others that their crap is real. People aren't good at detecting the crap so Tabel believes in old school punishment to get rid of the crap.

 

So as an example if you build a house and the house collapses, and kills someone's family your family dies. That's a bit extreme. But if your a banker and you lose money for your clients the system must be so that you also lose all your money and never work again. In reality the banker often doesn't lose anything just the clients.

 

If you are a baseball president (or GM) and you waste 100 million dollars and several young prospects on crap... then you must be embarassed and pay in a real and permanent fashion.

 

So the best thing for the Toronto Blue Jay franchise would be to publically fire and embarass Beeston, Cito, Murphy and a lot of the scouts. Send a message to the next regime that Rogers doesn't put up with phony crap.

 

If his moves don't work AA should spend the rest of his life poor, embarassed, known as a failure and a phony-fat-girly-man. His wife should leave him and children should laugh at him and hit him with a stick. Instead he will probably get promoted to President... and that is why the Blue Jays fail.

[Nox]

Taleb's philosaphy is basically that 90% of what humans do is a bunch of crap.

 

Not sure that's a fair description.

 

Many make their way in the world by convincing others that their crap is real.

 

This is accurate.

 

One of the things Taleb goes on ad nausem about is having skin in the game. I don't think it's a major problem in baseball with executive pay structures. GMs don't get multimillion dollar bonuses for short term incentives (like making the playoffs for one year or something like that). There's probably enough downside to failing. I would like to think Ruben Amaro won't be hired again once he gets fired in Philly. Other teams will be able to see he ran that franchise into the ground and won't extend him a GM job.

 

The asymmetry isn't the joke that it is in other disciplines.

 

If AA gets promoted after this debacle, I retract everything above.

[Olerud363]

Not sure that's a fair description.

 

 

 

This is accurate.

 

One of the things Taleb goes on ad nausem about is having skin in the game. I don't think it's a major problem in baseball with executive pay structures. GMs don't get multimillion dollar bonuses for short term incentives (like making the playoffs for one year or something like that). There's probably enough downside to failing. I would like to think Ruben Amaro won't be hired again once he gets fired in Philly. Other teams will be able to see he ran that franchise into th d and won't extend him a GM job.

 

The asymmetry isn't the joke that it is in other disciplines.

 

If AA gets promoted after this debacle, I retract everything above.

 

I partially disagree about "skin in the game". Many of the people involved with the 1997 debacle (namely Beeston and Cito) are still around for what is (so far) a very similar season.

 

Gord Ash has had a fairly cushy life as a columnist I believe, then as an assistant GM.

 

The downside for AA is something similiar, AA's downside is what would amount to a dream life for someone aspiring to get into baseball. Still a downside as compared to being a GM I suppose.

 

The bigger problem is that Beeston, Consultant Cito, the older scouts have no downside at all, they will always be remembered for 92/93 no matter how many times they've messed up since, they messed up 95, 97, clubhouse mutiny in 2009, and are still around.

 

Compare that to Tampa Bays front office which seems to have some younger baseball prospectus types trying to prove themselves.

[o2cui2i]

I partially disagree about "skin in the game". Many of the people involved with the 1997 debacle (namely Beeston and Cito) are still around for what is (so far) a very similar season.

 

Gord Ash has had a fairly cushy life as a columnist I believe, then as an assistant GM.

 

The downside for AA is something similiar, AA's downside is what would amount to a dream life for someone aspiring to get into baseball. Still a downside as compared to being a GM I suppose.

 

The bigger problem is that Beeston, Consultant Cito, the older scouts have no downside at all, they will always be remembered for 92/93 no matter how many times they've messed up since, they messed up 95, 97, clubhouse mutiny in 2009, and are still around.

 

Compare that to Tampa Bays front office which seems to have some younger baseball prospectus types trying to prove themselves.

 

I hear the jays have an opening in the mail room for a guy who want to work his way up from the bottom.. or down from the top. it's a 2 way door of opportunity.

[GD]

Many of the people involved with the 1997 debacle (namely Beeston and Cito) are still around for what is (so far) a very similar season.

 

What was the 1997 debacle, signing Clemens? T'was before my time as a Jays / sports fan lol.

[HASHTAGYOLOSWAG]

Hey what is this thread...Nope.

 

You all sound like children arguing over a chocolate bar in the playground.

[Olerud363]

What was the 1997 debacle, signing Clemens? T'was before my time as a Jays / sports fan lol.

 

They lost Alomar after 95, and won 74 in 96. Then they tried to reload off of a 74 win season (sound familar??). They gave away Olerud for Robert Person so that Joe Carter could play 1st. Got Clemens, and made some other big moves. Were preseason favourites then the season happened.

 

The Clemens signing was brilliant. The team would of won about 60 games without him. Everything else was pretty much the worst series of moves you could make.

 

- signed Benito Santiago to catch -- puts up J.P. Arencibia like numbers except for free agent money.

- big trade for Carlos Garcia to play second... Carlos Garcia meet Bonifacio. you guys could be twins

- same trade also netted Orlando Merced, erily similar player to Melky. He was OK. but nothing special.

 

- traded Olerud so Carter could play first. Carter put up what is generally regarded as the worst 100 rbi season ever.

 

Robert Person who they acquired for Olerud was pretty bad. Offense was horrible.

 

For all their effort in the offseason improved from 74 wins to 76. There was apparrently a clubhouse mutiny, led by Clemens, and Gaston got fired.

[GD]

For all their effort in the offseason improved from 74 wins to 76. There was apparrently a clubhouse mutiny, led by Clemens, and Gaston got fired.

 

Thanks for the summary. Sounds quite like this year lol.

[Metallijay]

Thanks for the summary. Sounds quite like this year lol.

 

Friggin depressing.

[Olerud363]

Friggin depressing.

 

Fat kid with a triple last night. Nothing special but keeping pace with Melky so far... In fact if you assumed a Snider/Sierra platoon that might be better then Melky 2013... especially considering the way Melky is moving around so far.

[oakville69]

I like Morrow. He can be very dominating at times and strike out 10 hitters. On the other hand, he usually gets hurt every year, & I doubt we will see him pitch 200 innings.

 

Overall, this has been one of AA's best acquisitions. He traded Brandon league for Morrow.

 

Morrow's temper last night was shocking. Why was he so upset? I understand giving up B2B HR's is annoying, but he finished 7 innings with the lead.

[Dr Negative]

I think Snider is going to have a big second half. The Pirates seem to be handling him very well.

[Captain Adama]

I like Morrow. He can be very dominating at times and strike out 10 hitters. On the other hand, he usually gets hurt every year, & I doubt we will see him pitch 200 innings.

 

Overall, this has been one of AA's best acquisitions. He traded Brandon league for Morrow.

 

Morrow's temper last night was shocking. Why was he so upset? I understand giving up B2B HR's is annoying, but he finished 7 innings with the lead.

 

Probably cause he knew the offense bailed him out of an otherwise disastrous start?

[oakville69]

Probably cause he knew the offense bailed him out of an otherwise disastrous start?

 

Fair point

[Olerud363]

Fair point

 

The fat kid hits another triple...

 

He's doing OK right now. Nothing special. But as it stands now we'd be better off having a Snider/Sierra platoon in left, and 16 million more towards the Yu Darvish posting fee, or the Chapman signing bonus or something...

 

It's a long season this could all change, but so far underwelmed by the Snider/Lincoln/Melky roster shake.

 

This all changes if Melky gets the average up to .320... it also all change if Snider goes an a power tear. Just something to keep an eye on.

[Camps]

Snider is still my favourite player in MLB, but for the current season, Melky > Snider.

[crrr]

The fat kid hits another triple...

 

He's doing OK right now. Nothing special. But as it stands now we'd be better off having a Snider/Sierra platoon in left, and 16 million more towards the Yu Darvish posting fee, or the Chapman signing bonus or something...

 

It's a long season this could all change, but so far underwelmed by the Snider/Lincoln/Melky roster shake.

 

This all changes if Melky gets the average up to .320... it also all change if Snider goes an a power tear. Just something to keep an eye on.

 

I don't see why Melky would need to be a .320 hitter to justify that chain of moves.

[CHRIS]

The problem with any type of Snider/Melky comparison is that it's tough to know how Snider would have developed in this organization. After seeing what Lind has been able to do so far this season, I'd like to think that Snider could have similar success, but you never know.

 

Such a shame that they couldn't have given the Fred Lewis, Corey Patterson, Eric Thames and Juan Rivera ABs to Snider.

[Olerud363]

I don't see why Melky would need to be a .320 hitter to justify that chain of moves.

 

There are an infinite number of ways that the moves could turn out.

 

Given Melky's secondary skills he needs to hit above .300 to be a good player. But like all baseball statements it's not black and white. These are all shades of gray. It's not like Melky would be way better if he hits .302 then he would hitting .298.

 

Snider and Melky are actually tied in WAR right now. The way I see it Snider's path to be way better is to start hitting for the kind of power we always hoped for. Melky's path is to get his average up some more.

 

All I'm saying is that if Melky hits .320 he'd likely be a very good player... if he hits .280 he would be an average player.

[Olerud363]

The problem with any type of Snider/Melky comparison is that it's tough to know how Snider would have developed in this organization. After seeing what Lind has been able to do so far this season, I'd like to think that Snider could have similar success, but you never know.

 

Such a shame that they couldn't have given the Fred Lewis, Corey Patterson, Eric Thames and Juan Rivera ABs to Snider.

 

All I ever wanted for Snider was one year of 500+ Murphy free at bats. Even better would be two years of 500+ Murphy free at bats.

[crrr]

There are an infinite number of ways that the moves could turn out.

 

Given Melky's secondary skills he needs to hit above .300 to be a good player. But like all baseball statements it's not black and white. These are all shades of gray. It's not like Melky would be way better if he hits .302 then he would hitting .298.

 

Snider and Melky are actually tied in WAR right now. The way I see it Snider's path to be way better is to start hitting for the kind of power we always hoped for. Melky's path is to get his average up some more.

 

All I'm saying is that if Melky hits .320 he'd likely be a very good player... if he hits .280 he would be an average player.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that Melky is likely better than Snider even if he hits .270. As someone noted, Pitt is hiding Snider vs LHers, and he's not even really tearing up the RHers he's facing.

 

also, I dont think it's very reasonable to expect Snider to go on a power tear, his power has dried up considerably

[crrr]

Snider is showing he can be a somewhat valuable platoon player, nothing more.