MiLB Recap, May 13

[John_Havok]

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W - (v) Buffalo 5, Louisville 4

 

SP Claudio Vargas 6 IP, 2 ER on 7 hits, 2 BB, 3 K

Jeffress 0.1 IP, 2 ER on 3 hits, 2 BB

Carlyle 1.2 IP, 1 K

Wagner 1 IP, 1 hit, 1 K, save(10)

 

Gose, 1-4, walk, run, 3 K

Sierra 2-5, RBI, run, 3K

L. Jimenez 1-3, walk, 2 runs

Gomez 3-4, 3-run HR

Thole 1-3, walk, RBI

LaRoche 1-4

 

 

New Hampshire did not play.

 

 

L - (v) Dunedin 2, Fort Myers 6

 

SP Aaron Sanchez 5 IP, 3 ER on 3 hits, 4 BB, 1 K

Antolin 0.2 IP, 1ER on 1 hit, 1BB, 1K

Davis 0.2 IP, 1K

Grifantini 0.1 IP, 2ER on 2 hits, 1BB

Gracey 1.1 IP, 1 hit, 1 K

 

Berti 2-5, 2 SB(19)

Burns 2-3, walk, RBI, CS(6)

Talley, 1-4

AJ Jimenez 1-3

Mooney 1-2, 2 walks, run

Chung 1-3, walk

Newman 2-3, walk, RBI, run

 

 

W - (h) Lansing 5, Great Lakes 0

 

SP Daniel Norris 4 IP, 1 hit, 3 walks, 5 K

Ghysels 2 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 K

Kadish 2 IP, 4 K

Sikula 1 IP, 3 K

 

Pompey, 0-3, walk, run, SB(9)

Smith Jr, 1-2, 2 walks, run

Lopes 0-3, walk, run

Fuenmayor 1-4

Sweeney 3-4, 2 RBI, CS(1)

Guerrero 1-3, 2 RBI

 

Havok's performance of the day goes to Mauro Gomez

[ElNik2013]

Gose off to a horrible start in May. Good outing by Norris for a change. Sanchez didn't have a Sanchez type outing, but at least he got his work in, I think he got 8GO and 3FO and I think he still hasn't given up a HR. When is this Andy Burns guy gonna be promoted? Dwight Smith Jr seems to be off to a good start.

[Caper]

Hurl,

 

If you were drafting for the Jays... Who would you take at the 10 spot? Keeping in mind, what you can realistically hope will be available.

[John_Havok]

Wagner hit 101 MPH on the radar gun, I read.

 

An excerpt from the Buffalo game recap:

 

"Power…in the form of Mauro Gomez as the slugger launched a three-run opposite field home run in the eighth inning that gave Buffalo the lead. And then even more power from closer Neil Wagner, who hit 101 mph on the Louisville Slugger Field in-stadium radar gun, in picking up his 10th save of the season."

[GD]

Atta f***ing boy, Norris.

[Boxcar]

You guys realize he walked 3 guys in 4 innings?

[Boxcar]

It doesn't really make sense, but the one hit is more important. 92 hits in 65 career IP, he's given up a lot of hits for whatever reason.

 

So a lucky BABIP game is more important than the fact that he walked nearly a batter per inning. K.

[Caper]

Atta f***ing boy, Norris.

 

Yeah... I did listen to the Lansing feed... and the announcers were saying it was a "weird" outing for Norris.... He seemed to throw a lot of pitches.

[OtisNixonFan]

Might be time to give Wagner a look? Especially if we cast Esmeralda Rogers off to the magical island.

[Laika]

DIPS doesn't quite apply to low-level minor leaguers who don't know how to pitch.

 

What an absurd thing to pull out of your buttocks. Sure they do.

 

Doesn't mean the run values of events are the same. The "FIP" or whatever might need to be tweaked, but DIPS would still matter. The biggest obstacle is by the time you obtain a meaningful sample size, with kids that age, they've probably developed and changed their true talent level. Still, it's better than ERA or whatever.

 

And yeah, one inning of # of hits given up is completely meaningless.

[TheHurl]

So a lucky BABIP game is more important than the fact that he walked nearly a batter per inning. K.

 

Pretty much yes. Striking out five and getting five ground balls. One was thrown away, two didn't get past the pitcher. of his 5 K's two were in the 3rd and two more in the 4th. 3 walks...couldn't care less if he's getting weak contact. It's still just one game but it's probably his best since his no hit effort in his pro debut

[Laika]

Norris has gotten lit up literally every time he's taken the mound in his career.

 

I don't think you know what literally means.

 

It does mean something that he managed to get through an outing without allowing a run, and with only one hit.

 

Not really. It's one outing.

 

I'll admit to not know this situation too closely or being a MiLB expert, but good prospects don't give up 12.7 H/9.

 

SSS

 

There is something to sabermetric principles not applying to all levels of baseball, Norris needs work on things that are second nature for players at the upper levels and you can't assume that his ridiculous strand rates and BABIPs are total flukes.

 

The very base level principles still apply. The coefficients and the significant values just need to be tweaked, or figured out again.

 

The kid has like, 60 career innings. I'd rather assume his true talent is 9/10ths of the way towards his FIP, then put on my theory induced blindness goggles and call him "hittable".

[John_Havok]

Okay, what you say is fair. I used literally to draw attention to how frequently he's gotten lit up. This isn't a guy who'll be off-and-on, he's never strung together multiple passable outings in a row. I'd also add that the hits dilute his somewhat-impressive 8.2 K/9, since the K% is a lot lower.

 

I remember listening to the BA podcast (w/ JJ Cooper and John Manuel) some time in the offseason, and they were really concerned about Norris. It's okay to get a little rocked in your first year in pro ball, but nobody posts a 7.97 ERA in the Appy League.

 

As Davidi explained on the jays broadcast tonight Norris is struggling to maintain consistent delivery mechanics, especially his release point. It really explains his wildness. He can't really learn how to pitch until he gets those mechanics down