On base thread continued...

[GD]

?? errors happen all the time at a realistic clip..........you playin on rookie? lol Not a shred of truth to that. Throwing from the outfield with bautista is drastically diff then rajai davis, you can throw out runners with bautista, not with davis unless the runner makes a mistake. Speed and range also come into play as well as defensive attributes. Players with worse d makes more errors. Do you even play the show? Sure doesn't sound like you do.

 

Pitch counts, stats at bats all happen realistically, if your K all the time and cannot walk you suck at hitting.

 

How many other sports games have you played? Compared to other games yes the show is that realistic. It plays a very realistic game of ball. You have to train yourself to recognize pitches out of the pitchers hand and you can learn to judge the zone and talk walks with regularity. Just like real baseball.

 

I love me some show but come on now, when you can play Edwin Encarnacion in CF and not notice much difference because the game has no concept of range it's not the most realistic game ever. It's great, though I'd take FIFA over it any day.

[dineke]

2k > the show...

 

ok probably not but I'm stuck with it cause I have an xbox. You can draw a ton of walks in that game.

[GD]

2k > the show...

 

ok probably not but I'm stuck with it cause I have an xbox. You can draw a ton of walks in that game.

 

2k sucks, lol.

[dineke]

2k sucks, lol.

 

eh.. still baseball, but I'm still on the 2k9 version. I play it once in a blue moon.

[Arkadium]

We are at .340 obp for May. Yankees are .290, Orioles .318, Boston .328, Tampa .366

 

Cool, thanks.... that's great info. Where do you go to get it?

[Abomination]

Cool, thanks.... that's great info. Where do you go to get it?

 

Just baseball-reference. Click on the team from the front page standings, then go to batting -> splits.

[Metallijay]

I love me some show but come on now, when you can play Edwin Encarnacion in CF and not notice much difference because the game has no concept of range it's not the most realistic game ever. It's great, though I'd take FIFA over it any day.

 

Umm no. Range makes a huge diff as does their thros from the outfield. There is noticebale diff in range and speed.

[Metallijay]

2k > the show...

 

ok probably not but I'm stuck with it cause I have an xbox. You can draw a ton of walks in that game.

 

ROFL, 2k baseball is terrible. Might be the worst sports franchise this gen. The show is the best. I had an xbox before I had a ps3, and a ps3 was worth it for the show alone. along with a slew of other exclusives.

[GD]

Umm no. Range makes a huge diff as does their thros from the outfield. There is noticebale diff in range and speed.

 

I disagree so I'll end this here.

[Metallijay]

I disagree so I'll end this here.

 

Disagree all you want your flat wrong, EE will not cover half the ground in the outfield as a Davis or another fast player with range. The developers post often at operation sports, post this nonsense over there they will laugh you off the forum. Speed, range, arm strength make a difference in the field.

[GD]

Disagree all you want your flat wrong, EE will not cover half the ground in the outfield as a Davis or another fast player with range. The developers post often at operation sports, post this nonsense over there they will laugh you off the forum. Speed, range, arm strength make a difference in the field.

 

I post often at Operation Sports as well, now please kindly shut the hell up because it's easier than continuing to argue this. Unless you have a set of sliders to suggest. I've tried TNK's but the OFs still aren't right.

[Olerud363]

May 8th 2013

 

Farrel 21-12 .343 on base

Jays 13-21 .304 on base

 

Jays show some fight. Now above .300 in on base percentage.

 

Projected home runs - 210 1st in A.L.

Projected runs - 624 10th in A.L.

 

The dream of 200+ homeruns and less than 600 runs was unrealistic. But 200+ homers and less than 700 runs is possible.

 

Today's J.P. Arencibia k/bb ratio 45-2. Can J.P. get 200 ks with less than 10 walks??

 

This thread was started on May 8th

 

Today is Tuesday May 21, 2013

 

Farrell 27-18 .342

Jays 18-26 .309

 

We've made no progress in catching crafty John and his on base percentage loving band of idiots. But we haven't fallen any farther behind. Some sort of good news is that the race for the 2nd wild card is currently kindof weak. Jays only 6 games back. Things have improved slightly for the Jays since the day this thread was started.

 

I know there is another thread bashing J.P. But that is reserved for bashing his overall game (defense and offense). This one is for on base percentage so once in a while I want to check in on how J.P.s game is evolving in that respect.

 

J.P. Arencibia k/bb 52-2. On base percentage .245.

 

Carlos Santana k/bb on base: 31-23 .403, Buster Posey k/bb On base - 22-22 .396

 

Apparently J.P, Santana, and Posey are the three top young catchers in the game. The difference between the 3 being that Posey has been in the playoffs and world series while Santana and Arencibia have not.

 

#of JPA walks since May 8th - 0

#of JPA quotes about how good of a run producer he is since May 8th- not sure maybe only 2 or 3 from that one article??

 

Yan Gomes career triple slash (166 plate appearances) - .238 .279 .464

JP Arencibia career triple slash (1050 plate appearances) - .223 .271 .438

 

Good news - Yan has small sample size. If Yan slumps JP will be back ahead soon.

Bad news - Yan has small sample size. if Yan gets hot he will quickly crush JP in terms of career OPS.

[GD]

crafty John

 

reported.

[Olerud363]

Today is May 28th 2013

 

Farrell 32-20 .346 team on base percentage

Blue Jays 22-29 .317 team on base percentage

 

For the last while the team has been in a holding pattern they haven't gained anything on the John Farrell's mighty sox, but haven't lost ground either. They are only 6.5 games back of the second wild card.

 

The team on base percentage is now average. Things change slowly, but they are changing. Let's hope for continued improvement.

 

Since we last spoke J.P. Arencibia has walked and now holds a 59-3 k/bb ratio. He still can't go on like this... can he?? It's amazing how long this has lasted. J.P. continues to do just enough power hitting to hold off Thole, despite a .250 on base percentage. Every time I think he is now bad enough to justify calling up Thole and splitting the job, he drives in three runs or something.

[Olerud363]

Today is June 3rd 2013

 

Farrell - 35-23 .345

Jays - 24-33 .317

 

Still in a holding pattern. Every day it gets later and it becomes less likely that the early season story will change.

 

The winners get to write the history book. That's just the way it works. John Farrell will get to write the story. A draft is allready written and the ink is drying. Things could change... but it's getting later.

 

The John Farrell story (as of June 3rd 2013).

 

"John Farrell was/is a great and kind man. A long with Brian Butterfield he was the only competent member of the Toronto Blue Jays management team. After repeated philosiphical differences with Toronto management he was traded to Boston in Dec 2012. In retrospect this was the most important move of the 2012/13 offseason.

 

Farrell is a former pitcher and has a simple philosaphy for the offense. He has one meeting with the GM and says "Get me some guys who can get the F' on base". Then he has one meeting in March with the hitting coach "Get the guys the F on base". He then ignores the offense and concentrates on helping the pitchers (he has more expertese on this).

 

In Toronto he was forced to babysit and constantly argue with the hitting Coach (who didn't believe in on base percentage). This affected the pitching because he was not able to fully focus on helping the pitchers. In Boston Farrell is able to trust his GM and hitting coach. He know the boys will get on base so he is able to concentrate on helping the pitchers.

 

In November 2013 John Farrell will be accepting his manager of the year award with a smug look on his face. In April of 2014 he will recieve his world series ring with the same smug look."

 

I'm not saying the above story is 100% true. Just saying that the winners get to write history, this is one possible version they might write.

[GD]

I hate this thread. It's just so captain obvious-y.

[Olerud363]

I hate this thread. It's just so captain obvious-y.

 

That's not fair. I've only been updating it once a week lately. Not like in late April when I was updating it hourly.... And I think it's very interesting that Farrell has been able to run a very effective offence in Boston. Whether he deserves credit for it or not on his arrival they've transformed (back) to a patient offense.

 

On a related note the fact that I only update this weekly might be a sign that the season really is over. When the team is in trouble fans go on and on about it being over and their own pet peeve issue (Arencibia, Gibbons, on base percentage, whatever they don't like).

 

When it really is over interest tends to die down.

[GD]

We know getting on base is an effective way to win ballgames, and we know that we don't do it well. I just don't see the point of updating it or anything, it's pretty apparent.

[Olerud363]

We know getting on base is an effective way to win ballgames, and we know that we don't do it well. I just don't see the point of updating it or anything, it's pretty apparent.

'

I've been on the board for 5 or 6 years and believe it or not there have been some spirited debates about this. Spirited in the sense that it is not obvious that everyone "knows" that getting on base is an effective way to win ballgames.

 

The most recent "debate" was last year by a guy called "grant77" who I believe I saw show his face here a couple of times.

 

Grant77 was a huge defender of Cito and Murphy had all kinds of cherry picked data showing that the Blue Jays offense was over-effecient. And that the conventional run projection formulas didn't work for the blue jays. That the Jays brainiacs had designed a unique .315 on base percentage offense that could score 800 runs.

 

The debate reached it's climax at around late July last year, when the Jays were near the top in runs scored but near the bottom in on base percentage. Some of us thought the offense was bound to collapse, others thought that the offense was one of the best in baseball.

 

So ofcourse it collapsed but right around the Bautista injury.... so everybody who thought the offense was good had an escape clause. The offense collapsed because of injury.

 

Thus I feel the need to follow the offense through the year. To keep track of how our low on base percentage offense is doing with a healthy Bautista.

[Olerud363]

I hate this thread. It's just so captain obvious-y.

 

Today: June 5th.

 

Farrell 36-23 .348

Jays 24-34 .316

 

So it may be captain obvious. This may be a thread that everyone hates. But this is an issue I've looked at for 20 years. For 20 years I've hoped that this would turn around. For 20 years I wanted to follow an organization that has a good on base percentage.

 

The Farrell thing is really frustrating to me. There have been a handful of people that I thought could turn this around. In 99 I had huge hopes for Jim Fergosi. Fergosi oversaw a great Philly offense in the early 90s. One of the first successful "beer league slugger" teams I remember.

 

And Fergosi produced. In 99 the Jays had an offense on the rise. 6th in on base percentage. But something happened between Fergosi and Sarge. I don't know what. All of a sudden Cito was hitting coach and immediately things went backwards. The offensive levels in 2000 were so high no one noticed. The offense seemed good compared to historical standards but it was mediocre compared to 2000 standards. Another step back in 2001 and people noticed. Cito fired.

 

Then J.P. Riccardi gave me hope. Mixed results. Good offenses in 2003 and 2006 but not consistent. The result is somehow Cito is back. Things quickly tank.

 

Then John Farrell. A smart progressive guy from the sox. Says the right things. But no results. And his hitting coach doesn't believe in obp??? wtf. Maybe Farrell doesn't really believe in on base percentage??

 

But Farrell goes to the sox and he is everything I hoped for. A smart progressive manager leading a great organization to a great season. His offense has a great on base percentage.

 

I know your all sick of it. But it's frustrating. John Farrell and the red sox fans are living the dream (again) while we are a laughing stock (again).

[John_Havok]

I think you assign far too much credit to the impact of a manager on his team. It's like you're saying that if Farrell were here this season the Jays would have an elite OBP with the same players that currently have a crappy one, and largely the same offense that he had last year, and had a crappy one.

[cesarb182]

Keep doing it bro

make another comparison of Yan Gomes and JK Arencibia now that Gomes continued hot and Arencibia continued to getting K's

i always believed that we would be better with this guy on the plate, or any other guy.

[Olerud363]

I think you assign far too much credit to the impact of a manager on his team. It's like you're saying that if Farrell were here this season the Jays would have an elite OBP with the same players that currently have a crappy one, and largely the same offense that he had last year, and had a crappy one.

 

That's not quite what I think...

 

I explained this in another post... I suspect Farrell doesn't spend much time at all working with the hitters. My impression is that as a former pitching coach, and a former pitcher he prefers working with the pitchers.

 

My impression is that Farrell has some meetings with the GM going over the type of hitters he'd like, then he has some meetings with the hitting coach going over the general approach he'd like to see.

 

Adam Lind is quoted as saying that Farrell and Murphy had opposite philosaphies. I suspect Farrell wasn't able to get what he wanted from the GM and hitting coach in Toronto.

 

Some will say "well why didn't Farrell fire Murphy??". That leads to larger questions. Did he even have the power to fire Murphy?? If not why did he take the job?? Well manager jobs don't come along often. He may have had a much better impression of AA and Murphy as he was interviewing but the reality of working with them on a day to day basis was different.

 

Farrell can only ask the GM to get him hitters and a hitting coach who are able to execute a high on base percentage approach.... In Toronto only 1/3 were completely on board with on base percentage. In Boston it's 3/3.

[Olerud363]

Keep doing it bro

make another comparison of Yan Gomes and JK Arencibia now that Gomes continued hot and Arencibia continued to getting K's

i always believed that we would be better with this guy on the plate, or any other guy.

 

Yan Gomes career - .(197 PA) .244 .281 .478 .758

J.P. career - (1108 PA) .222 .269 .436 .705

 

Yan Gomes sucks. We get it. He's about to fall apart because of his horrible swing.

 

Questions

 

Why does our catcher have a career OPS 50 points less than a guy who has the worst swing in the history of baseball??

[GD]

Why does our catcher have a career OPS 50 points less than a guy who has the worst swing in the history of baseball??

 

Because our management is inept and DINGERZ.

[cesarb182]

Yan Gomes career - .(197 PA) .244 .281 .478 .758

J.P. career - (1108 PA) .222 .269 .436 .705

 

Yan Gomes sucks. We get it. He's about to fall apart because of his horrible swing.

 

Questions

 

Why does our catcher have a career OPS 50 points less than a guy who has the worst swing in the history of baseball??

 

I would like to make a comparison of those two this year,

 

J.P Arencibia 2013 (207AB) - .222 .244 .449 .693 K/BB 68/5

Yan Gomes 2013 (82AB) (MLB) - .293 .302 .610 .912 K/BB 15/2

 

Gomes is not the walk type of guy but wouldn't the pitchers be more aggressive against a rookie bench player?

I don't wanna look like a flatterer, but i've been watching the indians and they're all very impressed with this guy, he's been giving some clutch hits

i saw on Baseball Tonight Barry Larkin saying that although he was marked with a 1.83s between catch the pitch and throw to second baseman when Barry was coaching Brazil to WBC he saw some throws close to 1.70 mark, thing that only Pudge, Johnny Bench, guys like this would do it, again i'm not saying this guy is a top player and i'm not trying to be a suckass but i think we would have way better plate approachs and defensive plays with Gomes catching, not that this is a huge thing

 

He surely has a weird stance, but which failures do you see on his swing?

[Olerud363]

I would like to make a comparison of those two this year,

 

J.P Arencibia 2013 (207AB) - .222 .244 .449 .693 K/BB 68/5

Yan Gomes 2013 (82AB) (MLB) - .293 .302 .610 .912 K/BB 15/2

 

Gomes is not the walk type of guy but wouldn't the pitchers be more aggressive against a rookie bench player?

I don't wanna look like a flatterer, but i've been watching the indians and they're all very impressed with this guy, he's been giving some clutch hits

i saw on Baseball Tonight Barry Larkin saying that although he was marked with a 1.83s between catch the pitch and throw to second baseman when Barry was coaching Brazil to WBC he saw some throws close to 1.70 mark, thing that only Pudge, Johnny Bench, guys like this would do it, again i'm not saying this guy is a top player and i'm not trying to be a suckass but i think we would have way better plate approachs and defensive plays with Gomes catching, not that this is a huge thing

 

He surely has a weird stance, but which failures do you see on his swing?

 

I don't have a problem with his swing. I've been told it's horrible. Last time this was brought up a couple of guys said that Gomes would be crashing soon because his swing is so bad.

[Olerud363]

Farrell 39-25 .352 team on base

Jays 27-35 .313 team on base

 

Things are now getting worse. We are quickly approaching the half way point and the Jays are now slowly drifting completely out of it.

 

Some say this is a "captain obvious" thread. The thread isn't about just pointing out that the Jays don't get on base. We all know that.

 

The thread is about discussing why the team doesn't get on base (in 2013 and most other years since 1993) and suggesting ways to improve the situation.

 

Look at it this way. Players go up and down like crazy. Lind and Saltamachia had a sub .300 on base average the last 3 years. Now both are getting on base this year.

 

Lind - 2010-2012 told to rip and grip, awful

Lind - spring training 2013 gets in semi-argument with AA in spring training, where AA gets mad and says basically "jesus christ Adam, ofcourse we want you to get on base, don't listen to any dang fools (like the previous hitting coach) that says otherwise.

Lind - 2013 gets on base.

 

Is it that simple??

 

Salty - doesn't get on base.

Salty - media calls him out does he deserve to be part of the red sox??

Salty - Strong personality Farrell tells the little bugger to get on base.

Salty - Gets on base.

 

Is it that simple?? No but you need to make it clear to the player getting on base is important.

 

J.P. Arencibia - doesn't get on base.

J.P. Arencibia - thinks he's a super star, nobody seems to tell him otherwise except fan-boys on twitter who J.P. laughs at.

J.P. Arencibia - gets worse every year at getting on base.

 

The point is you need strong personalities to get in these guys faces and be clear about hitting philosaphy.

 

John Farrell seems to be that kind of personality. I bet he got fed up with the fool hitting coach in Toronto which was part of the reason he left. Now we've given him free to the red sox and the guy is doing a great job getting a certain message to their hitters.

[John_Havok]

I don't have a problem with his swing. I've been told it's horrible. Last time this was brought up a couple of guys said that Gomes would be crashing soon because his swing is so bad.

 

His swing has holes. And if he played every day he would be exposed, just like Rajai Davis. The fact that Cleveland is using him sparingly which gives the appearance of him performing so well. If he was performing that well and people really thought he had the talent, he'd be playing every day.

[Olerud363]

Farrell .350 team on base championship caliber team

Blue Jays .312 team on base a team going no where, with nothing to hope for, nothing good, nothing meaningful.

 

Yeah I'm negative sometimes. I'm not trying to troll. Several times I've laid out my view of the Toronto Blue Jays circa 1994-2013... but just so people understand where I am coming from here it is again.

 

The Toronto Blue Jays are stuck in an endless cycle of mediocroty. They win 75 to 85 games. The organization is full of crony politicians.

 

On base percentage is very important. That is "captain obvious" as someone said. I follow on base percentage closely... not only for the sake of on base percentage itself, but because I think it is a good surrogate marker of the overall health of an organization.

 

A good organization, like the Boston Red Sox, has a high team on base percentage because they are a terrific organization and run by very smart people. This shows up in many ways, The team on base percentage is ussually high. They retool with smart pickups, they acquire a group of players (dempster, victorino, gomes, drew) that they can buy low (in both dollars and young players), that are sabermetric pickups. They retool without giving up a single young player or draft pick.

 

A high team on base percentage indicates a good organization... a smart organization that can react well to problems. If a pitcher such as Ricky Romero or John Lester starts to fall apart mid career an organization with a high on base percentage can fix him, while an organization with a low team on base percentage cannot.

 

Not that on base percentage itself has anything to do with pitching mechanics... it is just that both problems are to be addressed by the same minds. A high on base percentage indicates a smart organization. A smart organization can fix problems. So John Lester will atleast get his career stabalized while Ricky Romero will not.

 

If a team has a high on base percentage they will tend to find the old "slop-baller" on the cheap, a Ryan Dempster. The team with the low on base percentage, run by inferior minds, will go for the more expensive (in terms of young players) R.A. Dickey and Buerhle.

 

And no I don't think John Farrell himself is completely responsible for the Boston offense doing well. But I think there is a synergy. Good baseball minds find each other, John Farrell left the Blue Jays for the Red Sox, not just because of "dream job" but because he wanted to be with fellow keen minds.

 

So in the end we had an 11 game winning streak... which is part of the endless cycle of mediocroty. Without it we would of won 65 and maybe something would of been done to end the cycle.

 

But the cycle continues for... well at least several years more. The 11 game winning streak was part of the cycle. The 11 game winning streak means the Jays win 79, or 77, or 83, or maybe even 86. Or maybe 78. I don't know what the number will be. Just a number of hopelessness. The 15th overall pick to be wasted on a Deck McGuire type or a D.J. Davis * and the same s*** next year.

 

There are no good young players. No farm system. No developing an exciting young team. No high round draft pick. No exciting player to follow in the farm. In a lot of ways this is the lowest it's ever been. #Beastly. #itneverends.

 

*(note that good players don't spend 2 years in short season. Mike Trout was allready contending for batting titles and on the top prospect lists at this point... even Anthony Gose (as good as he is turning out) was holding his own in full-season.

Edited June 29, 2013 by Olerud363