On base thread continued...

[Metallijay]

Farrell .350 team on base championship caliber team

Blue Jays .312 team on base a team going no where, with nothing to hope for, nothing good, nothing meaningful.

 

Yeah I'm negative sometimes. I'm not trying to troll. Several times I've laid out my view of the Toronto Blue Jays circa 1994-2013... but just so people understand where I am coming from here it is again.

 

The Toronto Blue Jays are stuck in an endless cycle of mediocroty. They win 75 to 85 games. The organization is full of crony politicians.

 

On base percentage is very important. That is "captain obvious" as someone said. I follow on base percentage closely... not only for the sake of on base percentage itself, but because I think it is a good surrogate marker of the overall health of an organization.

 

A good organization, like the Boston Red Sox, has a high team on base percentage because they are a terrific organization and run by very smart people. This shows up in many ways, The team on base percentage is ussually high. They retool with smart pickups, they acquire a group of players (dempster, victorino, gomes, drew) that they can buy low (in both dollars and young players), that are sabermetric pickups. They retool without giving up a single young player or draft pick.

 

A high team on base percentage indicates a good organization... a smart organization that can react well to problems. If a pitcher such as Ricky Romero or John Lester starts to fall apart mid career an organization with a high on base percentage can fix him, while an organization with a low team on base percentage cannot.

 

Not that on base percentage itself has anything to do with pitching mechanics... it is just that both problems are to be addressed by the same minds. A high on base percentage indicates a smart organization. A smart organization can fix problems. So John Lester will atleast get his career stabalized while Ricky Romero will not.

 

If a team has a high on base percentage they will tend to find the old "slop-baller" on the cheap, a Ryan Dempster. The team with the low on base percentage, run by inferior minds, will go for the more expensive (in terms of young players) R.A. Dickey and Buerhle.

 

And no I don't think John Farrell himself is completely responsible for the Boston offense doing well. But I think there is a synergy. Good baseball minds find each other, John Farrell left the Blue Jays for the Red Sox, not just because of "dream job" but because he wanted to be with fellow keen minds.

 

So in the end we had an 11 game winning streak... which is part of the endless cycle of mediocroty. Without it we would of won 65 and maybe something would of been done to end the cycle.

 

But the cycle continues for... well at least several years more. The 11 game winning streak was part of the cycle. The 11 game winning streak means the Jays win 79, or 77, or 83, or maybe even 86. Or maybe 78. I don't know what the number will be. Just a number of hopelessness. The 15th overall pick and the same s*** next year.

 

There are no good young players. No farm system. No developing an exciting young team. No high round draft pick. No exciting player to follow in the farm. In a lot of ways this is the lowest it's ever been. #Beastly. #itneverends.

 

Totally agree, watching the sox bat especially with 2 strikes last night was the polar opposite of the Jays. Jays hitters were just too easy to shut down early in the game, hacking at pitches early in the count even though they were borderline, or out of the zone for quick outs. Watching this night in and night out is infuriating. You normally wait for a good pich to hit until you get 2 strikes, it's pretty basic, yet Jays hitters continually hack regardless of where the pitch is early in counts. Where is the sound plate approach and pitch recognition?

 

The bigger issue is it has been like this a long time..........Same issues cropping up. The lack of developing good position players is perhaps an even bigger issue. What was the last great position player the Jays developed? Delgado.

 

People who deny there are not major flaws in this team and organization are simply in denial.

[flafson]

Totally agree, watching the sox bat especially with 2 strikes last night was the polar opposite of the Jays. Jays hitters were just too easy to shut down early in the game, hacking at pitches early in the count even though they were borderline, or out of the zone for quick outs. Watching this night in and night out is infuriating. You normally wait for a good pich to hit until you get 2 strikes, it's pretty basic, yet Jays hitters continually hack regardless of where the pitch is early in counts. Where is the sound plate approach and pitch recognition?

 

The bigger issue is it has been like this a long time..........Same issues cropping up. The lack of developing good position players is perhaps an even bigger issue. What was the last great position player the Jays developed? Delgado.

 

People who deny there are not major flaws in this team and organization are simply in denial.

 

Do you suggest that the coaches are telling the players not to get on base but to just hit the fences? I'm no expert but i kinda doubt it.

[Olerud363]

Totally agree, watching the sox bat especially with 2 strikes last night was the polar opposite of the Jays. Jays hitters were just too easy to shut down early in the game, hacking at pitches early in the count even though they were borderline, or out of the zone for quick outs. Watching this night in and night out is infuriating. You normally wait for a good pich to hit until you get 2 strikes, it's pretty basic, yet Jays hitters continually hack regardless of where the pitch is early in counts. Where is the sound plate approach and pitch recognition?

 

The bigger issue is it has been like this a long time..........Same issues cropping up. The lack of developing good position players is perhaps an even bigger issue. What was the last great position player the Jays developed? Delgado.

 

People who deny there are not major flaws in this team and organization are simply in denial.

 

My breaking point was looking at D.J. Davis's stats in bluefield, and Deck McGuires stats in new hampshire.

 

Even at a very young age the Jays are getting no where (in terms of plate discipline) with D.J. Davis.

 

D.J. Davis... 1 walk 10 strikeouts, in BlueField... f'n short season. Travis Snider dominated that league in his draft year. Second year he dominated Lansing. D.J. Davis in year two, when Snider was blowing apart the midwest league, is still struggling in a rookie league... it isn't even considered A-ball.

 

The same minds that brought you Deck McGuire (5somethhing era in aa in what is essentially development year 4) have brought you D.J. Davis. These things are correlated.

 

And now because of the stupid 11 game win streak we get this s*** for at least 5 more years. And they get the 14th pick next year which they will mess up.

[Olerud363]

Do you suggest that the coaches are telling the players not to get on base but to just hit the fences? I'm no expert but i kinda doubt it.

 

You are correct. It's not as simple as the coaches "telling" the players "not" to get on base. It's a complicated problem that starts from the day the players enter the organization, and actually starts the day before that when our great "baseball ninja" and "savy beast" and their crew decide what players, coaches, and consultants to bring in.

[flafson]

Thing is, this offseason we got 5 position players that suppose to be contact hitters and no power hitters, yet our OBP still sucks.

So to me it seems there is a much deeper problem that we can't see.

[Olerud363]

Thing is, this offseason we got 5 position players that suppose to be contact hitters and no power hitters, yet our OBP still sucks.

So to me it seems there is a much deeper problem that we can't see.

 

If we take a look at the sox and jays offseason acuisitions we have the following (let me know if I missed some).

 

Us: Izturus, Bonifacio, Cabrerra, Reyes, Thole

 

Them: Victorino, Drew, Napoli, Gomes, Mike Carp.

 

Sox actually got 3 power hitters... contact hitters don't necessarilly put up high on base percentages. The best on base guys we have right now are EE and Bautista. Waiver wire power hitters like Carp.

[GD]

Farrell .350 team on base championship caliber team

 

D.J. Davis... 1 walk 10 strikeouts, in BlueField...

 

lmao, you can go right on ahead and f*** off with this s***

[Metallijay]

lmao, you can go right on ahead and f*** off with this s***

 

What s***? Facts? Everything he said was in fact true. Attacke the poster not his post, typical of people on this forum. Where are your facts?

[jays_fever]

What s***? Facts? Everything he said was in fact true. Attacke the poster not his post, typical of people on this forum. Where are your facts?

 

Facts? The facts are that 11 Ab sample in rookie ball means f*** all, and the manager has no impact on the players going out and performing. This myth that the manager has a huge impact on a players approach is garbage. The red Sox always have had players with high OBP's, Farrel has nothing to do with that.

[Olerud363]

lmao, you can go right on ahead and f*** off with this s***

 

Your obviously not really a sabermetrics guy... sabermetrics, atleast the Bill James version isn't just overanalyzing stats. It's looking at all the facts, statistical and non-statistical and putting them together to try and form an overall picture of whats going on. We're often dealing with very small sample sizes so we need to add some more information.

 

D.J. Davis is turning 19 soon, and has a 1-10 bb/k ratio in Bluefield. Do you know what Bluefield is??

 

Let me share some history with you. Up to 2007 the blue jays did not have a gulf coast league team. They had a team called pulaski in the Appalachian league, which is the same league as Blue Field is in, which is where Travis Snider went... 1 week after getting drafted. Snider blew this league apart. Mike Trout, when he was Davis's age was at Rancho Cucamonga, an A+ league, 3 levels higher then Davis. Xander Bogaerts was showing huge power in A ball... 2 levels above where Davis is.

 

Even Anthony Gose was 2 levels ahead of where Davis is now.

 

Bluefield is rookie ball... it's worrisome that Davis was sent there (instead of Vancouver)... it's even more worrisome that he's struggling with the strike zone in a rookie league...

 

Maybe Davis will still be good... who knows. But still in rookie ball his second year AND struggling with the strikezone is not a good sign.

[Olerud363]

Facts? The facts are that 11 Ab sample in rookie ball means f*** all, and the manager has no impact on the players going out and performing. This myth that the manager has a huge impact on a players approach is garbage. The red Sox always have had players with high OBP's, Farrel has nothing to do with that.

 

Jesus christ?? Argue with me if you want... but did you even read my post??

 

"And no I don't think John Farrell himself is completely responsible for the Boston offense doing well. But I think there is a synergy. Good baseball minds find each other, John Farrell left the Blue Jays for the Red Sox, not just because of "dream job" but because he wanted to be with fellow keen minds."

 

And 10 at bat sample?? It's a 37 at bat sample... which is obvious meaningless. My concern is the fact that he's stuck in rookie ball, and not making any progress with the strike zone. He's almost 19. He shouldn't be 1-10 bb/k in rookie ball.

[Olerud363]

lmao, you can go right on ahead and f*** off with this s***

 

So what?? What is your theory of baseball?? Why are the red sox doing well?? My theory is that the red sox organization is a sabermetric organization, john farrell is a very smart baseball man. Smart people find each other.

 

You claim to be into sabermetrics but show no respect at all for the best sabermetrics organization in baseball. The boston red sox. Your as phony as they come. I wish you'd take the sabermetrics off your signature... it's a disrespect to true sabermetric people...

[Metallijay]

So what?? What is your theory of baseball?? Why are the red sox doing well?? My theory is that the red sox organization is a sabermetric organization, john farrell is a very smart baseball man. Smart people find each other.

 

You claim to be into sabermetrics but show no respect at all for the best sabermetrics organization in baseball. The boston red sox. Your as phony as they come. I wish you'd take the sabermetrics off your signature... it's a disrespect to true sabermetric people...

 

HE is a troll like half the guys on this forum. They will attack you if you use logic or criticize the Jays, yet won't post any shred of fact or stats, just call you a retard or a troll. Morons half this forum is. Everything you said was well thought out and supported with facts, what did he come back with? Nothing, just a troll response.

[Metallijay]

Facts? The facts are that 11 Ab sample in rookie ball means f*** all, and the manager has no impact on the players going out and performing. This myth that the manager has a huge impact on a players approach is garbage. The red Sox always have had players with high OBP's, Farrel has nothing to do with that.

 

Why did you conveniently ignore all the rest of his post about the different philosophy in the sox and jays and how it relates to success? That's what I thought.

[GD]

Let me share some history with you.

 

Nah, lemme share something with you. Stop f***ing looking at 37 PA sample sizes from 20 year olds (happy belated birthday DJ!) in their second year of pro-ball. Especially 20 year olds with a .346 wOBA in that small sample. Ridiculous. Completely ridiculous.

 

So what?? What is your theory of baseball?? Why are the red sox doing well?? My theory is that the red sox organization is a sabermetric organization, john farrell is a very smart baseball man. Smart people find each other.

 

You claim to be into sabermetrics but show no respect at all for the best sabermetrics organization in baseball. The boston red sox. Your as phony as they come. I wish you'd take the sabermetrics off your signature... it's a disrespect to true sabermetric people...

 

The Red Sox are a very good team. But a.) your ridiculous assertions that John Farrell is why they're getting on base and b.) that they're some f***ing world beaters or something are really, really annoying.

 

oh, and you completely missed the point of my signature

[GD]

Why did you conveniently ignore all the rest of his post about the different philosophy in the sox and jays and how it relates to success? That's what I thought.

 

Why did you completely ignore that he made multiple points?

 

Oh, because it's convenient? alright.

[Metallijay]

Nah, lemme share something with you. Stop f***ing looking at 37 PA sample sizes from 20 year olds (happy belated birthday DJ!) in their second year of pro-ball. Especially 20 year olds with a .346 wOBA in that small sample. Ridiculous. Completely ridiculous.

 

 

 

The Red Sox are a very good team. But a.) your ridiculous assertions that John Farrell is why they're getting on base and b.) that they're some f***ing world beaters or something are really, really annoying.

 

oh, and you completely missed the point of my signature

 

He didnt say farrell was the reason LMAO, reading comprehension you fail. Read it again slowly. IT was an organizational thing not farrell.

[Metallijay]

Why did you completely ignore that he made multiple points?

 

Oh, because it's convenient? alright.

 

Why did you focus on just one? Convenient right?

[GD]

And 10 at bat sample?? It's a 37 at bat sample... which is obvious meaningless. My concern is the fact that he's stuck in rookie ball, and not making any progress with the strike zone. He's almost 19. He shouldn't be 1-10 bb/k in rookie ball.

 

A.) 37 PA, not AB

B.) You say it's meaningless, then criticize him. The f***?

C.) You don't seem to understand the pace at which prospects move up, especially ones as raw as Davis.

 

Why did you focus on just one? Convenient right?

 

wat

 

He didnt say farrell was the reason LMAO, reading comprehension you fail. Read it again slowly. IT was an organizational thing not farrell.

 

This guy is talking about synergy and completely ignoring pitching. It's getting ridiculous.

 

We get it. Getting on base is a crucial part of winning ball games. You don't need to state it over and over. But f***, you're not even looking at pitching, or the better stat or wOBA, etc.

[John_Havok]

You claim to be into sabermetrics but show no respect at all for the best sabermetrics organization in baseball. The boston red sox. Your as phony as they come. I wish you'd take the sabermetrics off your signature... it's a disrespect to true sabermetric people...

 

Oh the irony....

[Metallijay]

A.) 37 PA, not AB

B.) You say it's meaningless, then criticize him. The f***?

C.) You don't seem to understand the pace at which prospects move up, especially ones as raw as Davis.

 

 

 

wat

 

 

 

This guy is talking about synergy and completely ignoring pitching. It's getting ridiculous.

 

We get it. Getting on base is a crucial part of winning ball games. You don't need to state it over and over. But f***, you're not even looking at pitching, or the better stat or wOBA, etc.

 

The discussion is about offense so why would he bring up pitching? LMAO... In that case why discuss anything unless all variables are considered, weather, Free agents, Defense, the flu lol.

[GD]

The discussion is about offense so why would he bring up pitching? LMAO...

 

He's comparing team success. Jesus.

[Metallijay]

He's comparing team success. Jesus.

 

He is comparing OBP and how it is one orgs philosophy compared to anther................Over your head. OBP helsp a teams susccess. HE didn't bring up pitching because it was not pertinent to the discussion.

[GD]

Farrell .350 team on base championship caliber team

 

If he's comparing team OBPs, sure. But when he goes and calls the Red Sox championship calibre based on just OBP, then I'm gonna call him out, because you shouldn't just make assertions on overall success based on one component.

[ElNik2013]

Do Anthony Alford's 6 BB's in 22 AB's count? How about Dan Jansen's 4 BB's in 9 AB's?

[Olerud363]

Nah, lemme share something with you. Stop f***ing looking at 37 PA sample sizes from 20 year olds (happy belated birthday DJ!) in their second year of pro-ball. Especially 20 year olds with a .346 wOBA in that small sample. Ridiculous. Completely ridiculous.

 

 

 

The Red Sox are a very good team. But a.) your ridiculous assertions that John Farrell is why they're getting on base and b.) that they're some f***ing world beaters or something are really, really annoying.

 

oh, and you completely missed the point of my signature

 

If D.J. Davis was 20 and in rookie ball he should be shot... He was born July 25th 1994. He will be 19 in a month.

 

And even that is to old for rookie ball (for a 1st round draft pick). For a later pick, an athletic guy who you take a chance on, fine. But 1st round picks should be out of rookie ball by their second year.

 

I don't think I've ever seen a high pick repeat rookie ball. Snider went to full season, Gose went to full season, Sean Green went straight to Dunedin... I have never heard of a 1st round pick repeat rookie ball and end up being successful. So that is part 1 of my D.J. Davis complaint.

 

The second part is strikeout to walk ratio. I don't care about anything else because the sample is small. But k/bb has less of a luck factor. His k/bb is 10-1. awful.

 

And the Farrell thing... it is a commentary about smart baseball people going to work with other smart people. I am not saying Farrell is solely responsible for the red sox on base percentage... What I have been saying all along is that I think he left the Jays because they would not work with him to build a high on base percentage team.. they would not get him the coaches and players he needed for this.

 

So Farrell left (in part) to work with people who would work with him to get the coaches and players needed for a high on base percentage team. Note that Farrell brought Butterfield with him, but (obviously) wanted no part of "his" hitting coach, Murphy.

[Metallijay]

If he's comparing team OBPs, sure. But when he goes and calls the Red Sox championship calibre based on just OBP, then I'm gonna call him out.

 

Except he didn't say that LMAO. Reading comprehension. NEt time you bring up I point I will surely remind you didn't consider everything right?

[Metallijay]

If D.J. Davis was 20 and in rookie ball he should be shot... He was born July 25th 1994. He will be 19 in a month.

 

And even that is to old for rookie ball (for a 1st round draft pick). For a later pick, an athletic guy who you take a chance on, fine. But 1st round picks should be out of rookie ball by their second year.

 

I don't think I've ever seen a high pick repeat rookie ball. Snider went to full season, Gose went to full season, Sean Green went straight to Dunedin... I have never heard of a 1st round pick repeat rookie ball and end up being successful. So that is part 1 of my D.J. Davis complaint.

 

The second part is strikeout to walk ratio. I don't care about anything else because the sample is small. But k/bb has less of a luck factor. His k/bb is 10-1. awful.

 

And the Farrell thing... it is a commentary about smart baseball people going to work with other smart people. I am not saying Farrell is solely responsible for the red sox on base percentage... What I have been saying all along is that I think he left the Jays because they would not work with him to build a high on base percentage team.. they would not get him the coaches and players he needed for this.

 

So Farrell left (in part) to work with people who would work with him to get the coaches and players needed for a high on base percentage team. Note that Farrell brought Butterfield with him, but (obviously) wanted no part of "his" hitting coach, Murphy.

 

He is only 14, he is still learning reading comprehension.

[GD]

If D.J. Davis was 20 and in rookie ball he should be shot... He was born July 25th 1994. He will be 19 in a month.

 

And even that is to old for rookie ball (for a 1st round draft pick). For a later pick, an athletic guy who you take a chance on, fine. But 1st round picks should be out of rookie ball by their second year.

 

I don't think I've ever seen a high pick repeat rookie ball. Snider went to full season, Gose went to full season, Sean Green went straight to Dunedin... I have never heard of a 1st round pick repeat rookie ball and end up being successful. So that is part 1 of my D.J. Davis complaint.

 

The second part is strikeout to walk ratio. I don't care about anything else because the sample is small. But k/bb has less of a luck factor. His k/bb is 10-1. awful.

 

And the Farrell thing... it is a commentary about smart baseball people going to work with other smart people. I am not saying Farrell is solely responsible for the red sox on base percentage... What I have been saying all along is that I think he left the Jays because they would not work with him to build a high on base percentage team.. they would not get him the coaches and players he needed for this.

 

So Farrell left (in part) to work with people who would work with him to get the coaches and players needed for a high on base percentage team. Note that Farrell brought Butterfield with him, but (obviously) wanted no part of "his" hitting coach, Murphy.

 

Okay, thanks for proving my point, I misread his fangraphs column then. He's 18. EIGHTEEN. And you're slagging on him for 37 plate appearances. I just don't get it.

 

Notable prospects in rookie ball: Clint Coulter is in rookie. Not a draftee but close enough, Elier Hernandez is there. Stryker Trahan (great name) is there. Wuilmer Beccera is still there and he was from forever ago.

 

Okay, but K/BB still needs to stabilize, just look at Colby Rasmus earlier in the year. It's a small sample size no matter how you twist it.

 

Your Farrell part is fair. I disagree, just based on that a.) Chad Mottola ended up being the hitting coach b.) Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, and Melky Cabrera are all very good at getting on base, so we aren't anti-on base, but I do see your point and it is legitimate.

[John_Havok]

The only thing that he's said in this entire thread that's true is that OBP is important. Pretty much everything else is a steaming pile of crap.