2013 draft

[ace3113]

I said what I said about Anderson to Gray. 4 pitches vs 2. Gray is said to have a CU. One that he never throws so what's the point of having one? And yes Gray doesn't spot s***. Everything IS down the middle with him, which with his stuff is fine for college, but usually doesn't fly as well in the majors. That is good control. But its not command. And if someone can't understand the difference between the two then that's their issue.

 

Sigh. It's fine if you have an opinion, but you really have to stop misleading posters who might not be aware by posting false info/reports that run contrary to what pretty much all the "experts" say. Anderson doesn't have 4 major league pitches, and impeccable command. He has 2 plus pitches (maybe 1 now), a solid/inconsistent change and good command. His stuff has also taken a step back as the spring has worn on so his fastball is more like 90-93 now than 93-96. The way you phrase your hyperbole, someone might think Anderson should be the top pick in the draft. Mark Appel barely has 4 pitches, and he's the best pitcher in this draft. I don't know why you keep running out this party line about Gray's supposed lack of command when both the stats 16bb in 89ip (Gray) vs 24bb in 85 (Anderson), and scouting reports suggest that his command has been very good and in fact, better than Anderson's. I've never put another poster on ignore, but I'm strongly considering it because as much as you contribute every now and then, your constant need to be right, and change others opinion at the expense of the facts can be really hard to stomach.

[ace3113]

I got all the subscription to BA too buddy. Big whuup!

Its 1 point of view. I also got them to other sites as well. And not all agree about everything on all prospects. Just b/c you've seen one or two points of view you respect or are not familiar with another person's name doesn't make it a consensus view.

I like to add something other than just a cut and past job from 1 or 2 sites.

But do your thing. Its all yours now.

 

Hmmm. do I go with the opinion of a reputable source or check some internet site with questionable credentials. For the record it's not just one opinion check out Perfect Game, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus if you'd like. But you can go ahead and consult fanposts published a year ago, and from someone who probably has not even seen the players mentioned or is not well-connected to scouts who have. That's ignorance at it's finest. Anyone know how to ignore a poster?

[ace3113]

I got all the subscription to BA too buddy. Big whuup!

Its 1 point of view. I also got them to other sites as well.

 

Post them then, I'm sure people would appreciate the info rather than just hoarding all that "knowledge" for yourself.

[GD]

Hmmm. do I go with the opinion of a reputable source or check some internet site with questionable credentials. For the record it's not just one opinion check out Perfect Game, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus if you'd like. But you can go ahead and consult fanposts published a year ago, and from someone who probably has not even seen the players mentioned or is not well-connected to scouts who have. That's ignorance at it's finest. Anyone know how to ignore a poster?

 

Ha, irony.

 

No, but seriously, if you click on his name, and go to his profile, it should be in there somewhere.

[ace3113]

Thanks. I couldn't figure it out.

[TO1]

Sigh. It's fine if you have an opinion, but you really have to stop misleading posters who might not be aware by posting false info/reports that run contrary to what pretty much all the "experts" say. Anderson doesn't have 4 major league pitches, and impeccable command. He has 2 plus pitches (maybe 1 now), a solid/inconsistent change and good command. His stuff has also taken a step back as the spring has worn on so his fastball is more like 90-93 now than 93-96. The way you phrase your hyperbole, someone might think Anderson should be the top pick in the draft. Mark Appel barely has 4 pitches, and he's the best pitcher in this draft. I don't know why you keep running out this party line about Gray's supposed lack of command when both the stats 16bb in 89ip (Gray) vs 24bb in 85 (Anderson), and scouting reports suggest that his command has been very good and in fact, better than Anderson's. I've never put another poster on ignore, but I'm strongly considering it because as much as you contribute every now and then, your constant need to be right, and change others opinion at the expense of the facts can be really hard to stomach.

 

 

Control vs Command.

Have you ever seen a video of Gray throw anything on a corner consistently? Its all down the middle. I've seen about a dozen already, I didn't need Callis or anyone else to tell me that.

Anyone can keep their BB totals down if they throw it down the middle. A lot harder to keep the same BB totals when your throwing to corners. But I'm sure you already thought of that.

 

No need to put me on ignore. I'm done here anyways. Have fun.

[GD]

C'mon, man, one guy calling you out is no reason for you to be done here.

[GeorgiaPeach]

It's his point of view, I wouldn't be slamming T01's knowledge bro.....it's kind of his thing/specialty that brings very informative information to the board, I know I love the info that the Hurl Ace and niko10 provide.

 

I agree.

 

And not that I use garbage sites to get info. But if I'm searching for something, an injury status on a prospect/player....etc ......and stumble across a tidbit of info on a s*** site that I find useful I'll use it.

[Angrioter]

Rivals and pals, Frazier and Meadows

 

Georgia high schoolers grew up challenging, supporting, competing with each other

 

Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows. Or Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier. It really depends on whom you ask.

 

Georgia high schools have produced a fair share of baseball talent, especially in recent years. Just a year ago, outfielder Byron Buxton was drafted No. 2 overall by the Twins and right-hander Lucas Sims was selected later in the first round by the Braves. But the Peach State hasn't seen anything quite like the buzz these two prep outfielders -- ranked 4th and 5th on MLB.com's Top 100 Draft Prospects list -- have created.

 

Frazier and Meadows have grown up together on baseball fields, and their high schools are a virtual stone's throw from each other. They have long been compared to each other and likely will continue to be for as long as they put on a uniform. And, as next month's First-Year Player Draft approaches, neither seems to have a problem with that.

 

"During the summer I was out on a mission to prove to myself and everybody else that I was as good as, if not better than, Austin," said Frazier, who played with Meadows at various summer showcases, which he said helped him prepare for the extra attention they've received this spring. "I used him as motivation over the summer. I wasn't going to take a play off, because I knew he wasn't going to take a play off.

 

"I think having me there helped push him, too. [Coaches and instructors] were always challenging us to beat each other. I think we really pushed each other this year."

 

Said Meadows: "It's been a really good relationship; it's a friendly competition. We played together the whole summer, through all the events, had fun with each other, helped each other out through the bad days and the good days, learning each other's strengths and weaknesses. We've played with each other since we were nine or 10 years old, so we know each other well on the baseball side of things. It's good to have him to support me, as well as me to support him."

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130509&content_id=47085694&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

[Boxcar]

Control vs Command.

Have you ever seen a video of Gray throw anything on a corner consistently? Its all down the middle. I've seen about a dozen already, I didn't need Callis or anyone else to tell me that.

Anyone can keep their BB totals down if they throw it down the middle. A lot harder to keep the same BB totals when your throwing to corners. But I'm sure you already thought of that.

 

No need to put me on ignore. I'm done here anyways. Have fun.

 

Who'd have thought a prospect chat could get so heated?

[TheHurl]

Who'd have thought a prospect chat could get so heated?

 

Draft chat you f***in' useless jackass!

[TheHurl]

Jonathan Gray scratched from his start tonight...

 

with strep throat

[Boxcar]

Jonathan Gray scratched from his start tonight...

 

with strep throat

 

Sounds like he might drop to us @ 10 now.

 

Seriously, thanks for the useless bit of info annoying guy VicRauterFan.

[ace3113]

Sounds like he might drop to us @ 10 now.

 

10 is too high for Gray. The guy can't locate for crap. Throws it straight down the middle. We should draft this guy:

 

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9258666

 

Chris Anderson's stock is dropping

 

By Keith Law

 

Kennesaw, Ga. -- Jacksonville University right-hander Chris Anderson came out of the chute strongly this spring, sitting in the low-to-mid 90s with a wipeout slider and getting some buzz as a potential top-10 pick. (He was even ranked No. 12 on my first Future 50.)

 

He hasn't held that stuff into the middle of the season, and when I saw him on Friday night, he barely looked like a first-rounder at all.

 

Anderson was between 89 and 93 miles per hour with his fastball in a dismal outing that saw him knocked out in the fifth inning by Kennesaw State. He struggled to command the pitch to any part of the zone and frequently missed to his arm side. The Owls made hard contact against the pitch throughout his outing, even on outs, which made it harder for Anderson to get to his slider, which is his best pitch.

 

At 82-85 mph, the slider was very sharp. It is a plus pitch that breaks hard down and away from right-handed hitters -- and one Anderson can keep near enough to the zone to induce hitters to chase -- but only if he could get ahead in the count, if only his coach would call it. (He walked one right-handed hitter after getting to a 2-2 count but only threw fastballs after that point.)

 

He also showed an average changeup at 81-84 mph with a little tailing action and a fringy curveball at 77-80 mph that often came in like an underthrown slider.

 

The other major concern with Anderson was his poor body language on the mound, especially after a close call at the plate that went against Jacksonville; Anderson appeared to mope, throwing two pitches nowhere near the zone, after which he grooved a fastball that ended up over the right-field fence.

 

He's a physical kid at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds with strong legs and a good delivery that makes some use of his legs, including a long stride and early pronation of the pitching arm. He's a little young for the class, turning 21 two weeks after the signing deadline in July. He's clearly behind Nevada's Braden Shipley and UC Irvine's Andrew Thurman among college right-handers -- not to mention the likes of Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray -- and probably doesn't fit until the back of the first round unless the velocity he flashed earlier in the season returns.

 

--------------------Present Future

Fastball--------------55 60

FB movement-------45 45

Command-----------40 50

Control---------------40 50

Curveball-------------40 40

Slider-----------------60 65

Changeup------------50 50

Feel for Pitching-----40 50

 

 

 

 

[ace3113]

More Draft notes from ESPN:

 

It was an interesting weekend of college and prep baseball, with many high schools entering their postseason play and colleges gearing up for their conference tournaments. That also means it’s the last look at several players in the draft class, which makes it a crucial time for those who haven’t secured themselves onto a team’s board yet.

 

This weekend we saw a dominating effort from the best high-school pitcher in the class, a bit of redemption from the class’ best southpaw, and the two best bats this year continue to put up gaudy numbers.

 

• If anyone had any worries about St. Pius X (Texas) High School’s Kohl Stewart’s health, his effort on Monday went a long way toward erasing those doubts.

 

Stewart was sensational against Nolan Catholic in the 5A playoffs, pitching a complete-game shutout while giving up just two hits and striking out 14. The right-hander’s fastball was clocked in the mid 90s, and his devastating slider gave hitters trouble all afternoon.

 

“He’d be the No. 2 player on the board if I was running the show,” an NL East scout said. He’s got two 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) pitches in his heater and his slider, and I think the curve and change have gotten better. He’s not the prettiest mechanically but he’s got good rhythm and he knows how to pitch. That’s potential ace stuff, to me.”

 

Stewart appears to be a top-10 lock, and it’d be a real surprise if he is still available after the top 5 at this point.

 

• It has not been a great past month for Indiana State's Sean Manaea, but Friday’s start against Alcorn State was a definite step in the right direction.

 

Manaea gave up only one earned run in his seven innings of work, walking one and striking 11. Most importantly, the slider was much better, and he was as efficient as he has been all year, throwing 71 of 100 pitches for strikes. There still are teams in the back half of the top 10 who are considering the left-hander, but he’ll need more efforts like this to keep that consideration.

 

• Jonathan Gray had his start on Friday moved to Saturday as he recovered from strep throat, and he wasn’t his usual strike-throwing efficient self against Oklahoma State.

 

In a 4-3 loss to Oklahoma State, Gray threw 109 pitches in five innings, walking three and hitting another while giving up six hits and three runs. The Oklahoma right-hander did have good velocity -- most of the day sitting 96-98 -- striking out eight, but the command just wasn’t there.

 

“He never looked comfortable on the mound,” an AL scout said. “I don’t know if it was the [throat] or if he wasn’t used to the eight days off, but he really struggled to get ahead of hitters today. That is not something we are used to seeing, but we’re not too concerned.”

 

 

• Coming off one of the best efforts of his Stanford career, Mark Appel had possibly his worst start of the season against Oregon State, giving up five runs, six hits and five walks in just five innings as Oregon State beat Stanford 7-3.

 

“The box will tell you all the runs were scored in the fifth, but he had issues all day,” sad an AL Central scout. The command fell apart in the fifth inning, but he struggled to put hitters away most of the day and his slider was just average at best. That’s a good [Oregon State] club, though. He won’t face a better lineup than that the rest of the season.”

 

• Right now, no pitcher is working his name up draft boards more than than Oral Roberts right-hander Alex “Chi Chi” Gonzalez, who was on-point again this weekend. In a complete-game loss to McNeese State, Gonzalez gave up two earned runs on just four hits while striking out 11. Gonzalez is a first-round lock, and could go as early as No. 15 to Arizona.

 

• Trey Ball, out of New Castle (Ind.) High School, had a big double-header on Saturday, both with the bat and on the mound. In Game 1, Ball almost hit for the cycle, hitting a homer and a triple and showing the swing scouts loved last summer but haven’t seen most of this spring. Ball pitched in Game 2, pitching a complete-game shutout and striking out 12, with the fastball topping out at 93 but mostly sitting in the high 80s and low 90s. The San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies all have shown interest in the left-hander, and it’d be an upset if he’s available when the first-round ends.

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Hitters

 

• I was in Kent, Wash., to see Kentwood High School catcher Reese McGuire play in the district championships and came away impressed. McGuire went 3-for-4 with a double off the wall against Skyview High School.

 

He also showed off his amazing arm strength. One play in particular had scouts scribbling in their notepads. With a runner on second -- who had just run a 4.3 40 to get on first -- McGuire picked off the runner from his knees, throwing an absolute bullet strike to second. The only problem was the throw was so quick the shortstop didn’t get there in time and the ball bounced off the Skyview runner’s head.

 

“We know what he can do with the glove, that’s why most of us are here,” an NL West scout told me during the game. “We haven’t always seen him be able to hit the ball with authority, so this is nice to see. His glove is so good that he’s going to be a big-leaguer. If he shows even a lick of offensive ability, he’s an All-Star.”

 

• It was another huge weekend for San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant, hitting three homers in his series against Portland -- including a monster game on Sunday during which he went 5-for-6 with two bombs and a double, and also picking up a triple on Friday. Bryant continues to lead all of college baseball in homers and walks, and is putting up numbers we haven’t seen since the inclusion of the new bats.

 

“I think people get so enamored with the power numbers that we forget this kid has some discipline, too," an AL scout said. “I don’t think it’s just a case of him being pitched around either. There’s a lot of swing and miss to his game, but he’s a smart hitter who works counts into his favor. We’ll see if that continues at the pro level, but I’d bet on it.”

 

• Colin Moran continues to put up big numbers from the left side of the plate, even when he’s being pitched around. The North Carolina third baseman hit his 13th homer of the season and a double over the weekend against Georgia Tech. He also walked six times.

 

Moran could go as early as No. 5 to the Cleveland Indians and likely won’t get past one of the two Pirates first-round picks -- be it pick No. 9 or 14.

[GD]

Who's better, Denney or McGuire? I like what I've seen from Denney.

[ace3113]

Who's better, Denney or McGuire? I like what I've seen from Denney.

 

Bat=Denney

Glove=McGuire

 

I'm concerned by McGuire's hit tool since the Jays are connected to him. If we're going high school hitter I want a guy with a better than average chance to hit. For what it's worth, Law rates McGuire's hit tool as a future 45.

 

From ESPN:

 

Reese McGuire

 

McGuire is the best-throwing catcher in the draft class, routinely showing pop times to second base under 1.85 seconds, about as good as you'll see at any level of baseball, and he's improved his receiving this spring as well.

 

He is lean and athletic with good energy behind the plate, showing better hands this year than he did last summer when he struggled catching better velocity while attending various high-end showcases. His arm strength is plus but what makes his arm so special is his rapid transfer from glove to throwing hand. At the plate, however, he's a real question mark.

 

----------------Present Future

Hitting--------------35 45

Power---------------35 45

Plate Discipline -- --

Running Speed----- 55 55

Fielding Range----- 60 60

Arm Strength------ 80 80

Feel for Game

 

 

Jon Denney

 

Denney was one of the stars of the summer showcase circuit last year, showing off raw power and a strong arm, but he has struggled receiving this spring and is no longer seen as a lock to catch.

 

At the plate, his swing is very simple and direct, balanced throughout with power from his hands and his hips. Good bat control should allow him to hit for average and for power in time.

 

Behind the plate, he has arm strength and his release is fine, but his receiving is shaky, especially on balls down in or below the zone, where he tends to slap down at the ball rather than catching it cleanly and holding it. He has an excellent catcher's build, not too tall, broad and durable, but isn't the kind of higher-energy, more athletic catcher teams seem to favor now.

 

I think there's enough of a chance to fix what ails his receiving that you can send him out as a catcher and give him a few years to see how much he improves, especially since his bat at that position could make him an All-Star if he sticks.

 

----------------Present Future

Hitting--------------40 55

Power--------------40 60

Plate Discipline -- --

Running Speed----30 30

Fielding Range--- 40 50

Arm Strength------55 55

Feel for Game -- --

[z3r0s]

Did Clint Frazier's draft stock take a hit? I pulled up a site today (http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft) just to check the draft order again he was all the way down to 13th to the Padres. I've been to that site a few times and he had been slowly climbing this whole time.

 

anyone more in touch with prospects have any info on his draft stock?

[dineke]

Man just realized Kris Bryant was drafted by the Jays a few years ago. They should have just given him the money instead of giving it to some other scrub.

[GD]

Frazier's not getting out of the top 10.

[z3r0s]

Yes, that site is mildly retarded.

 

That's pretty much what I thought unless he had something terrible happen that I didn't know about.

[ace3113]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130510/mlb-mock-draft-2013-jonathan-gray-dave-perkin/?sct=hp_t11_a3&eref=sihp

 

Yes please.

 

10

Ryne Stanek

RHP Arkansas

R/R6-4190

 

The Jays want and need pitching and at this spot many hurlers are available. Stanek, a power-armed righty, started poorly in 2013 but has since improved. He's not aesthetically pleasing because of a stiff delivery, but he has improved his command and has a body size that makes him easily projectable.

[Laika]

Sickels new mock:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/16/4335316/2013-mlb-mock-draft-version-two-john-sickels-may-16http://

[Nox]

Sickels new mock:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/16/4335316/2013-mlb-mock-draft-version-two-john-sickels-may-16http://

 

You're bad at links.

[Laika]

1) Houston Astros: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University: Just about everyone believes that the first two picks in the draft will be college pitchers Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray. Gray seems to have little more momentum at this point, but I'll buck consensus slightly and slot Appel here on the theory that he makes a late charge and/or Gray slumps just a hair.

2) Chicago Cubs: Jonathan Gray, RHP, University of Oklahoma: Consensus seems to be that the Cubs will pick whichever college pitcher the Astros don't pick. That seems eminently reasonable given that the Cubs need high-ceiling pitching very badly. Gray and Appel are head-and-shoulders above every other pitcher in the draft.

3) Colorado Rockies: Kris Bryant, 3B, University of San Diego: Todd Helton is eight million years old, the Rockies have no long-term successor in place at first base, and Bryant is the best hitter in the draft. Seems like a perfect match to me.

4) Minnesota Twins: Kohl Stewart, RHP, Texas HS: Ok, now it gets complicated. The Twins have a robust group of hitters in the farm system but need more pitching. They have a well-known liking for college arms, but there is a big quality drop-off from Appel and Gray. I don't see guys like Ryne Stanek or Sean Manaea slotting here given their erratic springs. Some people like Braden Shipley here, but that still feels a bit too early for me. On talent I think the best available picks are high school outfielders Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows, and prep arm Kohl Stewart. The Twins could also use a catching prospect to eventually relieve Joe Mauer, but is this too high to pop someone like Reese McGuire? The Twins are already loaded with outfield prospects, so I think either Stewart or McGuire fits best.

5) Cleveland Indians: Austin Meadows, OF, Georgia HS: The Indians are reportedly looking for pitching, but they need outfield and power prospects too and for me Frazier and Meadows are the most logical choices talent-wise. If Manaea and/or Stanek finish well they could also slot quite logically here. Meadows has across-the-board skills and tools and is a more balanced prospect than Frazier.

6) Miami Marlins: Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State University: This is the first pick that might seem like a real stretch to some, but Renfroe has had an outstanding spring, has strong tools, has been moving up draft boards, and seems like he can get into the top ten for a team looking to save some money. The Marlins haven't drafted college hitters this early recently, but Renfroe is not your ordinary college hitter.

7) Boston Red Sox: Colin Moran, 3B, University of North Carolina: Under this scenario it would be either Moran or Frazier and you could make a case either way. Moran is safer, his upside as a pure hitter is as high as Frazier's upside as a power masher, and he won't need as long in the minors.

8) Kansas City Royals: Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada: A college arm makes the most logical sense and Shipley is the best still on the board at this point. Ryne Stanek has local ties since he went to high school in Kansas City and he would be a logical choice as well if he finishes strong down the stretch for the Razorbacks. If they want a hitter, Frazier would be the best one still here.

9) Pittsburgh Pirates: Clint Frazier, WOW LOW OF, Georgia HS: I can't let Frazier's booming bat drop any further than this. The Pirates haven't selected a high school bat in the first round for a long time, although Josh Bell was a first-round talent who fell in 2011. A future outfield of Frazier, Bell, and Gregory Polanco would be quite exciting.

10) Toronto Blue Jays: Trey Ball, PUKE OF, Indiana HS: A very logical choice given Bell's combination of upside, athleticism, and youth plus Toronto's usual orientation towards those qualities in the draft.

11) New York Mets: Dominic Smith, 1B, California HS: Rumors about what the Mets are interested in are contradictory, and really at this point what happens will depend on what the teams ahead of them do. The system needs impact bats and the front office has shown a liking for high schoolers in the last couple of drafts. Smith is an excellent hitter and could fit here on both talent and organizational need terms. I also believe that first base prospects may be a new market inefficiency that some clubs may try to exploit.

12) Seattle Mariners: Reese McGuire, C, Washington HS: I know the Mariners already have Mike Zunino, but that gives them the flexibility to let McGuire develop without the temptation to rush him. You can never have too many catchers since even top prospects at that position are volatile and often don't develop as expected. A high school pitcher or an outfielder could also slot here, but Phil Bickford, Ian Clarkin or maybe even Austin Wilson as plausible choices.

13) San Diego Padres: Ian Clarkin, LHP, California HS: The Padres aren't afraid of high school pitching and at this spot there are several interesting arms to choose from. Either Bickford or Clarkin fits talent-wise, with Robert Kaminsky another darkhorse possibility. Sean Manaea might fit if he finishes strong.

14) Pittsburgh Pirates: Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University: He didn't live up to expectations this spring, but Manaea still has first-round talent and could be a nice steal here.

15) Arizona Diamondbacks: D.J. Peterson, 3B-OF, University of New Mexico: His position may be in question, but nobody seems to doubt his bat. If they are more interested in athleticism, J.P. Crawford could fit.

16) Philadelphia Phillies: J.P. Crawford, SS, California HS: Tools, youth, and upside are the standard Phillies emphasis and J.P. Crawford has all of that. Bickford would also fit their patterns favoring high school pitching

........

19) St. Louis Cardinals: Jonathon Crawford, RHP, University of Florida

20) Detroit Tigers: Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford

23) Texas Rangers: Jon Denney, C, Oklahoma HS

27) Cincinnati Reds: Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas

32) New York Yankees (for Nick Swisher): Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville University

[Laika]

You're bad at links.

 

you suck//http:

[Angrioter]

Trey Ball again

 

I don't like this Kid

[Laika]

Trey Ball again

 

I don't like this Kid

 

I'd definitely prefer JP Crawford or Dominic Smith.

 

Being said, I've never seen any of them play and I'm basically just a keyboard warrior who likes to think that he knows more than he actually does.

[Daniel Labude]

I really hope Clint Frazier drops to 10!

[Laika]

And here's KLaw's first mock, just dropped today. It's.... interesting. Insider so I'll copy paste. Not gonna format it or anything to just bear with the ugly.

 

1Jonathan GrayPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 239School: Oklahoma

Analysis: The industry thinking is that the Astros will try to cut a deal with Gray for less than it would cost to sign Mark Appel, then applying the savings to later picks where they might sign players to bonuses that exceed MLB's recommendations.

 

There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics.

 

Besides Gray and Moran, Mark Appel and perhaps Kris Bryant all seem to be in consideration, and maybe (but probably not) Clint Frazier. If last year is any guide, the Astros won't make a final decision until a few hours or even minutes before the pick.

 

2Mark AppelPOS: RHPHT: 6-5WT: 215School: Stanford

Analysis: This is Appel or Gray, assuming one of them goes first, with Appel the preference. The Cubs are in the catbird seat in this draft -- they don't have to pay the premium that comes with picking first overall but are guaranteed to get one of the two huge arms in the class.

 

3Kris BryantPOS: 3B/OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 215School: San Diego

Analysis: I've only heard them on bats so far, including Bryant, Dominic Smith and Austin Meadows. However, if Gray ends up here, I think the Rockies would take him.

 

4Kohl StewartPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 190School: St. Pius X (Houston)

Analysis: They've been very heavy on Stewart over his last few outings, and he's an ideal fit for a system that needs high-upside pitchers, with Stewart offering the athleticism the Twins have always favored in position players.

 

There is a persistent rumor that the Twins will cut a deal with prep catcher Reese McGuire for less than MLB's recommended bonus, which would allow them to apply those savings later in the draft. But Stewart is clearly the better choice and appears to be higher on their internal board, below only the three players who I project to go in the top three.

 

5Colin MoranPOS: 3BHT: 6-3WT: 215School: North Carolina

Analysis: I've heard that Moran will fall no farther than here at No. 5, and Cleveland will take Bryant if Moran is gone. Clint Frazier could be a backup plan at this spot, the highest I've heard him going other than Houston.

 

6Braden ShipleyPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 190School: Nevada

Analysis: Shipley and New Mexico's DJ Peterson are the two most frequent names I'm hearing about with this pick. Peterson would be the first college position player that the Marlins drafted with their first selection since Mark Kotsay in 1996. Ownership seems to be mandating a college player for the first pick.

 

7Ryne StanekPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 190School: Arkansas

Analysis: Stanek came into the year as a top-five pick, struggled with command, but has been showing major velocity of late and holding it deep into games. There's a thought that the Sox are lurking on him and Sean Manaea, since Moran and Bryant will likely be gone and Clint Frazier might be too risky for them at No. 7. If they drafted a little lower, they might consider Alex Gonzalez as well.

 

8Sean ManaeaPOS: LHPHT: 6-5WT: 235School: Indiana State

Analysis: I'm hearing that the Royals are focused on college arms, including Manaea and Shipley, but oddly enough not Stanek, whom they've barely scouted. Their main non-pitching target seems to be Austin Meadows.

 

9DJ PetersonPOS: 3B/1BB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 205School: New Mexico

Analysis: They are also linked to Reese McGuire (whom GM Neal Huntington has seen more than once), Austin Meadows and Trey Ball.

 

10Reese McGuirePOS: CB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Kentwood HS (Kent, Wash.)

Analysis: I've heard the Blue Jays could take Ball or Meadows with this pick. I would expect them to be opportunistic on any player who was supposed to go higher than this and falls, which could mean Frazier.

 

11Dominic SmithPOS: 1BB/T: L/LHT: 6-0WT: 195School: Serra HS (Gardena, Calif.)

Analysis: This pick could also be Peterson, Aaron Judge or longshots Hunter Renfroe or Austin Wilson. Also, the Mets were among the teams scouting Frazier on Monday.

 

12Austin MeadowsPOS: OFB/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Grayson (Ga.) HS

Analysis: The Mariners originally thought they'd have a shot at Moran, but that seems impossible. Peterson and Stanek are both considerations if they're available here, with Reese McGuire getting play as the local kid.

 

I think Seattle would be over the moon getting Meadows here with the No. 12 pick. No matter how I map the scenarios, either Meadows or Peterson ends up here.

 

13Clint FrazierPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Loganville (Ga.) HS

Analysis: Frazier and Meadows falling this far seems odd to me, but there's a flight to safety in the top 10, with teams expressing stronger preferences for college players over prep kids. That could certainly change in the next three weeks after scouting departments get into their draft rooms.

 

The Padres would also consider Hunter Renfroe with this pick or they might cut a deal with a prep arm, an approach that worked very well for them last year when they nabbed prep lefty Max Fried at No. 7 overall.

 

14Trey BallPOS: LHP/OFHT: 6-6WT: 180School: New Castle (Ind.) HS

Analysis: I've also heard that the Pirates could take Aaron Judge or Hunter Renfroe with this pick. I actually prefer Ball to Peterson -- whom I have them taking at No. 9 -- but Peterson won't get past pick No. 12.

 

15Hunter RenfroePOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 216School: Mississippi State

Analysis: Alex Gonzalez is one of the other names here, although it sounds like the Diamondbacks covet Renfroe.

 

16J.P. CrawfordPOS: SSB/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 175School: Lakewood (Calif.) HS

Analysis: They're getting linked to every toolsy prep player who might be available with this pick, including Travis Demerritte, Devin Williams and junior college shortstop Tim Anderson.

 

17Chris AndersonPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 225School: Jacksonville

Analysis: I've also heard the White Sox linked to Gonzaga lefty Marco Gonzales, although this seems a little early for him.

 

18Matt KrookPOS: LHPHT: 6-2WT: 190School: St. Ignatius Prep (Hillsborough, Calif.)

Analysis: I know you're shocked, but the Dodgers are linked to a lot of prep arms, including Krook, Hunter Harvey and Devin Williams.

 

19Alex GonzalezPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Oral Roberts

Analysis: They're also one of several teams seen as strong candidates for prep shortstop Travis Demerritte, who is likely to go off the board before their next pick. Local kid Devin Williams will be a sentimental favorite among fans, I'm sure.

 

20Kyle SerranoPOS: RHPHT: 6-0WT: 185School: Farragut (Tenn.) HS

Analysis: One very odd name I heard here is Florida right-hander Jonathan Crawford, who doesn't seem to be getting much play in the first round as there's a growing consensus that he's a reliever in the long run. I've also heard Stanek here if he slides.

 

21Nick CiuffoPOS: CB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 200School: Lexington (S.C.) HS

Analysis: I've heard Tampa Bay is focused on catching, but only Ciuffo would fit the bill in this spot. Devin Williams is also high on the Rays' list.

 

22Devin WilliamsPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 172School: Hazelwood West HS (Hazelwood, Mo.)

Analysis: I doubt that Williams, who could go anywhere in the teens, gets past this four-team gauntlet of clubs starting with Baltimore's No. 22 pick. I've also heard that the Orioles have a bit of interest in New Jersey prep lefty Rob Kaminsky and Fresno State outfielder Aaron Judge.

 

23Travis DemerittePOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 195School: Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.)

Analysis: I've heard Demerritte could go as high as No. 16, but I think he goes in the 20s, where Texas is widely seen to be all over him.

 

24Hunter HarveyPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 175School: Bandys HS (Catawba, N.C.)

Analysis: I've heard that the A's are interested in a lot of prep arms, including Harvey and prep southpaw Rob Kaminsky.

 

25Eric JagieloPOS: RHPB/T: L/RHT: 6-3WT: 215School: Notre Dame

Analysis: San Franciso's front office is notoriously tight-lipped, and rumors here are all over the board, including pretty much everyone linked to Oakland.

 

26Austin WilsonPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 245School: Stanford

Analysis: The Yankees have scouted Wilson heavily since he came back from a stress reaction above his elbow. They've been linked to a ton of prep players but have the luxury of playing the board a little with two more picks at Nos. 32 and 33.

 

27Billy McKinneyPOS: OFB/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 195School: Plano (Texas) West HS

Analysis: McKinney could be this year's version of Jesse Winker, another bat-only prep outfielder who falls to the Reds and hits the ground running in pro ball.

 

28Aaron JudgePOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-7WT: 255School: Fresno State

Analysis: I've heard that Judge could be picked anywhere in the first round, garnering interest from teams in the 7-to-15 range to those picking in the 20s (figuring he doesn't drop that far).

 

29Marco GonzalesPOS: LHPHT: 6-1WT: 185School: Gonzaga

Analysis: It's hard to imagine the Rays passing on a consistent performer like Gonzales. Plus, it's known that they like his feel for pitching.

 

30Rob KaminskyPOS: LHPHT: 6-0WT: 190School: St. Joseph HS (Montvale, N.J.)

 

31Tim AndersonPOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 180School: East Central CC

 

32Jon DenneyPOS: CB/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 205School: Yukon (Okla.) HS

Analysis: Denney was a possible top-10 pick in early February but had a rough spring on offense and defense. That may make him a huge bargain at this point in the draft, with the Yankees also linked to him often of late.

 

33Dustin PetersonPOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 180School: Gilbert (Ariz.) HS