The Prospect/Minor Leagues Thread

[KingKat]

Hi KingKat

 

I'm not sure either of these cases have anything to do with "the market". Both are either a scouting failure or bad luck.

 

David Cooper was envisioned to be a good line drive hitter. John Olerud lite. Kind of a .290 .350 .450 guy with low strike-outs. He struggled in aa then got a pretty bad injury.

 

D.J. Davis was envisioned to be a Devon White... not even close.

 

So the 1992/1993 Jays hit paydirt with all kinds of different players... the unathletic hitter (Olerud), the tools guy (Devon White), the old professional hitter (Winfield/Molitor). The young "franchise" (Alomar).

 

Flash forward to 2010ish

 

Snider, Cooper, Gose, Davis, the slop ballers, Josh Johnson, Emilio, even Hech... and maybe most all Lawrie (2010s version of "franchise"). Different types of players... they all missed for some reason.

 

The market adjustement on Gatewood wasn't something I came up with. This was the kind of analysis given by people who spend a hell of a lot more time analyzing these things than I do. The feeling being that in previous drafts, a guy like Gatewood is a mid first rounder. That being said I agree with what everyone seems to be saying. It's hard to ever say definitely that a skill or skill set is truly overrated or underrated in the draft. You can be right or wrong about all kinds of guys.

 

Maybe Gatewood become a future superstar and then people will be kicking themselves for letting him slide. I think you do see the market adjust and react to these sorts of things but whether that means these adjustments actually lead to an improvement in the overall quality of evalution is not at all clear. It's an imperfect science to say the least. The whole process can actually seem entirely luck driven and the preparation futile but you can bet that no team is just going to throw up its arms, everyone's trying to refine this process and that, productively or not, creates trends. The fact that there is a correspondence between draft position and MLB track record suggests that at least overall there's some method within the madness and that at least in a broad sense, teams know what they're doing.

[Atothe]

Hes so hot right now.

 

you are a weirdo

[GD]

I know it's not the way baseball does things, but I wonder how Miguel Castro would do if he was promoted to the MLB on this day. He certainly has major league stuff.

 

JorgePolanco.gif

JoseFernandez.jpg

[burlingtonbandit]

I know it's not the way baseball does things, but I wonder how Miguel Castro would do if he was promoted to the MLB on this day. He certainly has major league stuff.

 

That's my Caper thought, for the day.

 

I think he would get hit pretty hard because of the lack of a breaking ball. He could maybe be a decent reliever with the plus fastball average chaneup. I hear he needs to add a bit of arm speed on the change as it is noticeable.

[Atothe]

[GD]

Received and transferred? lol

[GD]

rocketing up the system = the new rayking?

[Atothe]

Well they are being aggressive, imagine a Roberto Osuna next year. Could be in the majors

[Atothe]

[Atothe]

Keith Law doesn't like the aggressive promotions

 

Joe (Toronto)

 

Thoughts on Daniel Norris' promotion to Triple A?

Klaw (1:07 PM)

 

They're rushing prospects to AAA for reasons I don't fully understand (or that I do understand and with which I disagree). Letting a guy go around a league twice has real value. Neither Norris nor Pompey got that in New Hampshire.

[metafour]

you are a weirdo

 

 

[Atothe]

Jaypers413 (IL)

 

What does Kendall Gravement project as to you? Reaction to his season?

Klaw (1:42 PM)

 

Probably a fifth starter too. Stuff is pretty ordinary. Low K rates at every level; high GB rates but his fastball doesn't have great sink. Getting overrated by stat-line scouting, in part because he was an SEC product who started at low-A (for which he was too experienced).

[Atothe]

 

Yeah I understood the reference

[Atothe]

Scouting report on Castro's start last night

 

http://www.bluejaysfromaway.com/midwest-league-showdown-castro-vs-kubitza/

[Atothe]

WOW, didn't see that coming

[Atothe]

Btw Happy Osuna Day

[Atothe]

[jerb]

 

Buffalo Bisons

‏@BuffaloBisons

.@DanielNorris18 strikes out the side in the 2nd around a 1-out walk. Has now K'd 26 of the first 45 batters he's faced at AAA. #Bisons

[nmrch]

That's it for Osuna, final statline

 

4 IP 2 H 5 K 1 HBP 2-3 GB:FB

[Orgfiller]

That's it for Osuna, final statline

 

4 IP 2 H 5 K 1 HBP 2-3 GB:FB

 

Welcome to the board? Lol

 

Good line

[Atothe]

That's it for Osuna, final statline

 

4 IP 2 H 5 K 1 HBP 2-3 GB:FB

 

3 hits

[eastcoastjaysfan]

 

Buffalo Bisons

‏@BuffaloBisons

.@DanielNorris18 strikes out the side in the 2nd around a 1-out walk. Has now K'd 26 of the first 45 batters he's faced at AAA. #Bisons

 

Simply ridiculous.

[burlingtonbandit]

Looks like Norris might be having a bit of trouble commanding the fastball. Gave up a HR and now has walked his 3rd batter.

[DuckDuckGose]

Never seen this happen before, he's climbing the ladder at an incredible rate. If he continues on the path that he has, ETA late 2015/early 2016 may not even be out of the question?

 

Drew Hutchson in 2010/2011. People need to stop acting like the Jays are treating Castro as special. He's a good prospect but he isnt extraordinary.

[burlingtonbandit]

Norris struck out the side in the 3rd, all swinging strikeouts. Also gaveup a leadoff home run, on a fastball over the heart of the plate.

 

Whats the velocity and command like?

[GD]

Also, no one really has much of a book on him.

[GD]

The book is out, he's not unknown anymore. Still can't believe he wasn't in the Jays midseason top 20 on MLB.com.

 

*had, sorry

 

We didn't even have a picture of the guy.

[DuckDuckGose]

Hutchison pitched nearly 100 innings in Lansing, over the course of two seasons. Doesn't seem the same.

 

Castro has been different than most prospects. He dominated the DSL, basically skipped the GCL/Appy (where most young prospects go), and started the year in Vancouver. He's now being pushed past Lansing as well, with barely any innings being logged there. That doesn't happen to often. He's made it from the DSL to A+ in exactly one season span, that's incredible.

 

It's rare not unique.

[burlingtonbandit]

Don't have a radar gun, and I haven't been listening to the radio guys.

 

Oh sorry I thought you were watching on MILB.tv or something.

 

I think the Jays must of promoted Castro because Dunedin is going to be in the playoffs. I would think if everything goes well he spends half a season in Dunedin and then the rest of the season in NH.

[burlingtonbandit]

I was watching on MILB.tv.

 

There was no radar gun, and I wasn't listening to the commentary (had no volume).

 

Oh nice. Hows the secondaries look? 9Ks through 5 is mighty impressive.