A Very Darrelly Dynasty League

[Boxcar]

I like TRM end of this. I've never really trusted Hanley, and now he's a LF. Very smart decision to sell with one year of SS remaining.

 

I agree. He got a nice return.

[BTS]

Hi, how's it going today? Could I get play the play on Fister for Upton?

 

Fister to me for Calhoun + Alcantara + 1st, I guess the rest involved Upton somehow.

[NorthOf49]

My eyes tell me that success has not been tied at all to trade activity. Correlation plz North.

Trades don't really correlate with regular season wins.

 

But I fit wins with moves and board posts; adjusted r-squared of -0.103.

 

http://i.imgur.com/yz1fW26.png

[jaysblue]

Starlin Castro is available for teams looking for a young SS. He rebounded nicely last season and he has the upside to take his offensive game to another level. He's still only 24!

[Dr. Dinger]

Starlin Castro is available for teams looking for a young SS. He rebounded nicely last season and he has the upside to take his offensive game to another level. He's still only 24!

 

Cool, didn't know that about him.

[BTS]

Trades don't really correlate with regular season wins.

 

But I fit wins with moves and board posts; adjusted r-squared of -0.103.

 

http://i.imgur.com/yz1fW26.png

 

lol North

[KingKat]

Starlin Castro is available for teams looking for a young SS. He rebounded nicely last season and he has the upside to take his offensive game to another level. He's still only 24!

 

Castro is a hard guy to like in some ways but he seems underrated in fantasy.

[NorthOf49]

Ohh ok, pretty glad I asked for info before I trolled. That didn't really translate well on the sheet. Pretty good resource for info though.

Yeah I didn't denote who traded who in three+ team deals. That was a pretty fair trade.

[TRM]

Trades don't really correlate with regular season wins.

 

But I fit wins with moves and board posts; adjusted r-squared of -0.103.

 

http://i.imgur.com/yz1fW26.png

 

I assume I'm the biggest outlier?

[BTS]

Yeah I didn't denote who traded who in three+ team deals. That was a pretty fair trade.

 

Still not big on Alcantara, but the Calhoun side is more valuable. Not by enough to make me regret it or anything.

[jaysblue]

Castro is a hard guy to like in some ways but he seems underrated in fantasy.

 

I'd rather roll the dice on Castro moving forward over a guy like Desmond for example. SS is such a weak position in fantasy. After Tulo, the drop-off is huge.

[The Cats Ass]

I'd rather roll the dice on Castro moving forward over a guy like Desmond for example. SS is such a weak position in fantasy. After Tulo, the drop-off is huge.

 

Desmond is easily better than Castro. Will be for the next few years. Castro has stopped stealing bases and has yet to hit for much power. And how long before Castro is moved off of SS?

[Dr. Dinger]

I'd rather roll the dice on Castro moving forward over a guy like Desmond for example. SS is such a weak position in fantasy. After Tulo, the drop-off is huge.

 

Cool, but I would never consider trading Desmond for Castro, personally. Desmond has gone 20/20 for 3 straight years while Castro has basically been given a total red light on the basepaths, has never had 15 HR in a season, and hasn't eclipsed 80 R or RBI once in the last 3 years.

 

Here's a Top 500 Dynasty Ranking from today that has Desmond at 16 and Castro at 45.

http://thedynastyguru.com/2015/02/13/the-top-500-overall-dynasty-league-rankings-february-2015/

 

You can't find a single ranking, re-draft or dynasty, on any website this offseason that has Castro ahead of Desmond. Yahoo, ESPN, BP, Dynasty Guru, Fangraphs, it's a clean sweep.

[Dr. Dinger]

In a redraft league, there are a bunch of shortstops I would take ahead of Castro: Tulo, Desmond, Reyes, Hanley, Alexei, Peralta, Zobrist, maybe even Bogaerts. And that's assuming you get the decent Starlin Castro, rather than the disaster that was his 2013 season.

[GD]

TDG is like 50% quality writing and 50% facepalm.

[Dr. Dinger]

TDG is like 50% quality writing and 50% facepalm.

 

It's extremely difficult to do a Top 500 dynasty ranking, nevermind one that includes prospects. I think it becomes a pretty useless exercise beyond the first 50-100. However, several of those guys work for BP now, so it's not like they're total amateurs. That being said, I wouldn't consider Starlin in my Top 50. I've owned bad Starlin, and it's f***ing miserable. I don't blame jaysblue for shopping him while the tide is high.

[GD]

It's extremely difficult to do a Top 500 dynasty ranking, nevermind one that includes prospects. I think it becomes a pretty useless exercise beyond the first 50-100. However, several of those guys work for BP now, so it's not like they're total amateurs.

 

I found a few very questionable ones. Gomez > Puig > Tulo? I might reverse that, honestly. Machado > Bautista is pretty bad. I love Hunter Pence but he's not a better asset than Kris Bryant. Even in a 5x5 I don't think Hamilton is 10ish spots better than Harvey. I don't buy Blackmon 116. But for a top 500, it's really not a bad list. Some of their analysis is excellent. But again, some is ehh.

[jaysblue]

Desmond is easily better than Castro. Will be for the next few years. Castro has stopped stealing bases and has yet to hit for much power. And how long before Castro is moved off of SS?

 

Desmond is touching 30, and if his power numbers decline some what, he loses significant value. His overall batting line isn't anything sexy. Since he's a SS who could hit between 20-25 HR's, and get dem 80-90 RBI along with 20 SB, he's an attractive asset in fantasy. Don't get me wrong, Desmond is a top SS in fantasy baseball if he hits for power, though he worries me especially long term. His other offensive numbers haven't been anything special and wRC+ has dropped three consecutive years from 128 to 108. His .255/.313/.430 slash line isn't that sexy if he doesn't produce those 20+ HR's, 80-90 RBI and 20 + SB. I just wouldn't touch Desmond anywhere in the Top 50-60 picks of a draft. He's still one of the top SS's right now, though that shows you how weak the position is after someone like Tulo. I've owned Desmond in other dynasty leagues and I've traded him in both instances. Sure Desmond > Castro now, though over the next five years I'd rather own Castro than Desmond. At least Castro has shown he can hit and I still believe he has some untapped power potential.

[jaysblue]

In a redraft league, there are a bunch of shortstops I would take ahead of Castro: Tulo, Desmond, Reyes, Hanley, Alexei, Peralta, Zobrist, maybe even Bogaerts. And that's assuming you get the decent Starlin Castro, rather than the disaster that was his 2013 season.

 

In a yearly league, I'd take Tulo, Desmond, Reyes, Hanley, and possibly Zobrist over Castro. Peralta has been quite awful offensively before and you know what you're getting with Alexei. Bogaerts has upside, no denying that. Though SS in essence is a weak position. After Tulo, the dropoff is huge. I probably would avoid taking a Desmond or Reyes in the Top 50-60 and wait to take a SS later on.

[Dr. Dinger]

I found a few very questionable ones. Gomez > Puig > Tulo? I might reverse that, honestly. Machado > Bautista is pretty bad. I love Hunter Pence but he's not a better asset than Kris Bryant. Even in a 5x5 I don't think Hamilton is 10ish spots better than Harvey. I don't buy Blackmon 116. But for a top 500, it's really not a bad list. Some of their analysis is excellent. But again, some is ehh.

 

I really don't love Machado from a fantasy perspective, but you have to figure Bautista starts declining soon. Personally I would take Puig over Gomez, but keep in mind that most people play in 5x5 leagues, not OBP leagues like we take for granted.

[BTS]

I've never owned Castro in any league. 100 wRC+ bat who I think gets overdrafted, though he's a decent re-draft often. Don't like him much at all as a dynasty asset. He's a bad SS defender at 24, and reportedly has a piss-poor work ethic. Hard to see him long-term as a SS. He's also a complete piece of s*** as a person, which is irrelevant for fantasy, but adds to my distaste nontheless.

[Dr. Dinger]

Peralta has been quite awful offensively before

 

Peralta has a 120 wRC+ in 3 of the last 4 seasons with two 20 HR seasons. Castro's high watermark is 115 wRC+ and 14 HR. In a redraft league, I'd absolutely still take Peralta.

[Dr. Dinger]

I've never owned Castro in any league. 100 wRC+ bat who I think gets overdrafted, though he's a decent re-draft often. Don't like him much at all as a dynasty asset. He's a bad SS defender at 24, and reportedly has a piss-poor work ethic. Hard to see him long-term as a SS. He's also a complete piece of s*** as a person, which is irrelevant for fantasy, but adds to my distaste nontheless.

 

I talked a bunch of s*** about Castro and said he was overrated heading into 2011 and 2012. Inexplicably, I drafted him in PL in 2013 (only because I felt he fell), and he completely shat the bed. So, naturally, I now hate him even more.

[jaysblue]

Cool, but I would never consider trading Desmond for Castro, personally. Desmond has gone 20/20 for 3 straight years while Castro has basically been given a total red light on the basepaths, has never had 15 HR in a season, and hasn't eclipsed 80 R or RBI once in the last 3 years.

 

Here's a Top 500 Dynasty Ranking from today that has Desmond at 16 and Castro at 45.

http://thedynastyguru.com/2015/02/13/the-top-500-overall-dynasty-league-rankings-february-2015/

 

You can't find a single ranking, re-draft or dynasty, on any website this offseason that has Castro ahead of Desmond. Yahoo, ESPN, BP, Dynasty Guru, Fangraphs, it's a clean sweep.

 

A lot of Desmond's value is tied into his power numbers. If he doesn't produce 20+ HR's and 80-90 RBI, he's nothing special. His wRC+ has dropped three straight years and with him getting older, I'm sure he has already reached his peak. Desmond just worries me. I don't consider him a top 25-30 fantasy asset, let alone a Top 50 asset as some others would. He's definitely been one of the top SS's in the game over the past three years, though I would be scared trading a lot of talent or drafting him high in a redraft league as he enters his 30's. Castro isn't a sure bet, though I've always valued players who have age on their side, along with upside. I'd rather roll the dice on Castro over the next 5 years vs. Desmond. Just my opinion.

[Dr. Dinger]

I don't consider him a top 25-30 fantasy asset, let alone a Top 50 asset as some others would.

 

I'm sorry, but I've seen a lot of people misusing the expression "let alone" recently, and I'd really like to set the record straight. When you say let alone, you save the more impressive number for AFTER the let alone. So really, you should have said "I don't consider him a Top 50 asset, let alone a Top 25-30 asset, like literally every fantasy website currently considers him."

 

Sorry to be a pedantic twat, but this bugs me a lot.

[NorthOf49]

I assume I'm the biggest outlier?

The model likes moves and doesn't like posts. You outperform it by a fairly typical 56 wins (average distance is 41). Spanky is the one way at the left and Boxy is at the bottom (under-performed by 130).

[NorthOf49]

I'm a definite Castro fan but he's nothing spectacular and a further breakout shouldn't be expected. Desmond is in a different asset class.

[Spanky99]

f***ing TDG, I trusted him on Brett Anderson AND Jesus Montero, he can piss up a rope.

 

lol

[KingKat]

SS is a minefield. Even Tulo is a worrisome asset in some ways.

[KingKat]

I've owned bad Starlin, and it's f***ing miserable. I don't blame jaysblue for shopping him while the tide is high.