Leo Morgenstern

Projection season continues! ZiPS is now available on FanGraphs player pages and the 2026 projections leaderboard, which means I can start one of my favourite pre-season exercises: comparing the ZiPS and Steamer projections to see where they differ. ZiPS and Steamer, both housed at FanGraphs, are two of the most well-known, widely used, and consistently accurate projection systems available. They’re also the two systems FanGraphs averages to calculate their Depth Charts projections. At first thought, it might seem strange to mash two projection systems together, but as it turns out, projection systems are stronger together than they are apart. We’ve been citing Steamer here at Jays Centre throughout the offseason. Earlier this month, Matthew Creally took a close look at the recently published Blue Jays’ ZiPS. Today, I’m going to identify the hitters for whom these two projection systems offer notably different outlooks. Before I dive into that, however, I’d like to acknowledge a couple of general trends I noticed in my research. For one thing, Steamer is a pessimist when it comes to defense. It also projects much wider platoon splits than ZiPS, particularly regarding numbers against left-handed pitchers. I think this is because Steamer plays things safer than ZiPS. Defensive stats are famously volatile, and the fact that right-handed hitters tend to be more effective than left-handed hitters against left-handed pitchers is backed by more than a century of evidence. When faced with uncertainty, it’s less risky to project defensive metrics closer to zero, and it’s easier to presume righties will thrive with the platoon advantage and lefties will struggle without it. Yet, ironically enough, there can be danger in playing things too safe. The Steamer projections are an important reminder that regression to the mean comes for everyone. ZiPS offers what look like more nuanced and individualized prognostications. With all that said, let’s dive in. RJ Schreck Even the best projection systems have wide error bars for prospects. Simply put, neither Steamer nor ZiPS has much data to work with here. That’s precisely why Schreck’s projections jump off the page. Most minor leaguers have very similar (and very mediocre) ZiPS and Steamer projections. Schreck, however, has a 12-point difference in his projected wRC+ figures. Steamer sees him putting up an unremarkable 96 wRC+, but ZiPS envisions an impressive 108 wRC+. That’s because ZiPS buys into the big power he’s shown off at Double and Triple A, projecting him for 17 home runs and a .189 ISO in 104 games. Of course, a lot would have to go wrong for Schreck to get to play 104 games for the Blue Jays, but it’s nice to think that if a lot does go wrong, the Jays will have a talented lefty slugger in Buffalo they can call upon. That is, if you trust ZiPS more than Steamer. Unfortunately, I’m worried ZiPS is too optimistic about Schreck’s skills against same-handed pitching. ZiPS and Steamer project relatively similar numbers for Schreck against righties: a .744 OPS and a .715 OPS, respectively. However, ZiPS projects him for a .700 OPS against southpaws, while Steamer has him struggling to a .597 OPS. Considering Schreck has posted wide platoon splits so far in the minors (.862 OPS vs. RHP, .757 OPS vs. LHP), I’m not confident he could close that gap in his first season at the game’s highest level. Joey Loperfido ZiPS sees Loperfido as a league-average hitter. Combine that with good speed and solid outfield defense, and we’re looking at a player who deserves regular major league playing time. Steamer, on the other hand, projects Loperfido for an 85 wRC+. Unless you can field like Andrés Giménez, that’s unplayable. Once again, it’s mostly a matter of platoon splits. ZiPS is higher on Loperfido in general, but Steamer really doesn’t have any confidence that the young lefty bat can hit same-handed pitching. Only time will tell which projection is more accurate, but the good news is that he has reverse platoon splits in his minor league career (.834 OPS vs. RHP, .883 OPS vs. LHP). It’s hard to see a path to playing time for Loperfido on the 2026 Blue Jays, but he’ll help his case if he keeps mashing lefties in the minors. Daulton Varsho ZiPS will tell you Varsho is a borderline All-Star. According to Steamer, he’s bordering on mediocre. That’s largely due to the latter underestimating his defense; the Gold Glove center fielder somehow has a negative defensive projection from Steamer. However, ZiPS is also much more optimistic that Varsho can maintain the huge power he flashed in 2025. His ZiPS projected ISO (.232) is the highest on the team, while his Steamer projected ISO (.205) is 27 points lower. I hate to sound like a broken record, but once again, it comes down to platoon splits. Varsho has long struggled against southpaws, particularly in the power department. ZiPS is confident he can change that in 2026, projecting an ISO well above his previous career high. Steamer is far less optimistic. Alejandro Kirk Finally, a player with better offensive projections from Steamer than ZiPS! Why might that be? Well, because Kirk bats right-handed. Okay, there’s more to it than that. Steamer just really likes Kirk’s bat, projecting him for a 122 wRC+. That’s nine points higher than his ZiPS wRC+ projection. However, as has consistently been the case, Steamer projects a much wider platoon split than ZiPS. Steamer expects Kirk to crush lefties for an .813 OPS. That’s well above his career average, and it would be his highest since 2021 – when he only faced a lefty 60 times. Overall, ZiPS still projects Kirk for more WAR than Steamer does, but that goes back to Steamer undervaluing defense. If Kirk can match his Steamer projection at the plate and his ZiPS projection behind it, he’ll have the best season of his career. Kazuma Okamoto Toronto’s lone addition to the lineup is a major wild card. Okamoto was a superstar in Japan, but translating NPB stats to MLB is never easy. So, it isn’t surprising that the righty slugger has an eight-point gap between his Steamer and ZiPS wRC+ projections. ZiPS thinks he’ll strike out a bit more, but it sees him making up for that with a higher walk rate and a little more power. While Okamoto's ZiPS stats are more impressive, this one doesn't have anything to do with varying platoon projections. The projected magnitude of the difference between his OPS against righties and lefties is almost identical in both systems. Each suggests his OPS will be about 40 points higher when he has the platoon advantage. Anthony Santander Santander’s platoon split projections are particularly interesting, given that he’s a switch-hitter. There’s only a one-point difference between his projected OPS against right-handers according to Steamer and ZiPS. However, his ZiPS projection against left-handers is 71 points higher than his Steamer projection. To put that another way, ZiPS sees him as a slightly better hitter from the right side, while Steamer sees him as a significantly better hitter from the left side. To make things more confusing, Santander has been a roughly equally productive hitter against righties and lefties throughout his career. He strikes out a lot more against southpaws, but he also draws more walks and has seen much better results on balls in play. So, I’m inclined to trust the more balanced ZiPS projections. Andrés Giménez Giménez is a fun one because his overall offensive projections from ZiPS and Steamer are almost identical. Yet, ZiPS sees him as a similarly poor hitter against righties and lefties alike, while Steamer suggests he’ll be roughly league average against righties but really quite ineffective against lefties. Those are two very different offensive profiles. In 2024 and ‘25, Giménez matched the latter profile. However, in the two seasons prior, he was actually slightly better against left-handers. On the one hand, it would be great if Giménez could hold his own against lefty pitchers. On the other hand, I wouldn't be mad to see Ernie Clement slide over to shortstop against southpaw starters if it meant Giménez was a genuinely productive bat against righties. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It almost seems silly to include Guerrero in this piece when both projection systems think he’ll be one of the best hitters in baseball. However, his Steamer wRC+ (153) is eight points higher than his ZiPS wRC+ (145). That difference is enough to make him one of Steamer’s top five projected hitters, trailing only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, and Shohei Ohtani. Once again, it comes back to platoon splits. Steamer projects Guerrero's OPS against righties to be 14 points higher than ZiPS. That’s not a huge difference. However, Steamer projects his OPS against lefties to be 82 points higher than ZiPS. Only one hitter, Judge, has better Steamer projections against southpaws. Guerrero doesn’t have wide platoon splits in his career. He’s actually been slightly better against right-handed pitchers. With that said, he absolutely destroyed lefties in 2025, and Steamer seems to think that trend will continue. View full article

This is a fun exercise. I love thinking about potential lineups. Personally, I’d keep Varsho as the everyday center fielder against all pitchers. I’m not convinced Straw is a better option against righties, even if Straw has the platoon advantage and Varsho doesn’t. Straw's bat is just that weak. Instead, I’d consider swapping Straw in for Barger in right field, moving Ernie Clement to shortstop, and starting Schneider at second. Giménez and Barger are the biggest liabilities against lefties. And while the infield defense might be a little worse, the outfield defense would be better.

Last week, the Blue Jays announced the signings of 27 international free agents, including catcher Juan Caricote and outfielder Michael Mesa. On Tuesday, Sportsnet's Shi Davidi published a scouting report of several of those international signings, and his article also included further information about several of the players' signing bonuses. Initial reports from MLB.com and Baseball America offered slightly different bonus figures for both Caricote and Mesa. Davidi has Caricote's bonus at $1.95 million, in line with Baseball America's report, and Mesa's bonus at $800,000, in line with MLB.com's report. In addition, Davidi confirmed Aneudy Severino's previously reported $700,000 bonus – and that his name is spelled with a "y" at the end. (MLB.com and the announcement from the Blue Jays both spelled his name with an "i" instead.) Caricote, Mesa, and Severino received the three largest bonuses the Blue Jays awarded. Davidi also noted the bonuses for a handful of players whose contract details were previously unreported Right-hander Abrahan Diaz: $250,000 Shortstop Sebastian Casanova: $180,000 Shortstop Gabriel Porras: $70,000 These six known bonuses account for $3.95 million of Toronto's total $5.94 million bonus pool. Finally, Davidi confirmed that right-hander Alieski Torres ($200,000) and left-hander Celwin Hurkmans ($150,000) signed in December, so their bonuses count towards last year's international signing period bonus pool. For more details on all these players, I highly recommend checking out Davidi's piece (before coming back to discuss the Blue Jays' newest prospects in the comments below). Featured image courtesy of Denny Medley, Imagn Images. View full rumor

Steven Kwan is a great player, and I'd love to see him on the Blue Jays. But I agree that the Jays shouldn't be anywhere near desperate enough to pay what the Guardians seem to be asking for. In terms of finding room for Kwan on the roster, though, I don't think it's as complicated as some might think. There's a strong chance that any trade package that brings Kwan to Toronto would send Addison Barger back to Cleveland.

Last week, the Toronto Blue Jays signed two more players to minor league contracts, as reflected by the MLB.com transaction tracker: right-handed pitcher Connor Seabold and catcher C.J. Stubbs. Seabold, 30, has pitched for the Red Sox, Rockies, Rays, and Braves, as well as the Samsung Lions of the KBO. He owns a 7.79 ERA and 5.22 xERA in 119 MLB innings from 2021-25. The righty has experience as both a starter and a reliever. Stubbs, 29, made his MLB debut last year after five-plus seasons in the minor leagues. He played in the Astros organization from 2019-24 before he was released and signed with the Nationals. It was with Washington that he finally played his first big league game, starting at catcher (and going 0-for-3) on September 1, 2025. He was optioned back to the minors the next day. Neither Seabold nor Stubbs is likely to play a significant role for Toronto in 2026, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Seabold appear out of the bullpen at some point during the year. As for Stubbs, he'll be more of an emergency backup to the backup (to the backup); his most important job will be as a veteran presence at Triple-A Buffalo. Featured image courtesy of Brad Mills, Imagn Images. View full rumor

The 2026 international amateur signing period began on January 15. Strictly speaking, it runs for 11 months (until December 15), though most signings take place right away. There will always be exceptions – the Blue Jays signed Korean right-hander Seojun Moon last September – but the majority of these deals come together as handshake agreements well before the signing window actually opens. Once it does, the teams and their new prospects tend to put pen to paper almost immediately. The Toronto Blue Jays entered this year's signing period with $5.94 million to spend. That's on the low end, but it's not as low as it could have been. The Blue Jays just managed to get under the luxury tax threshold in 2024, which means they only lost $500,000 in bonus pool space for signing free agent Anthony Santander, who received a qualifying offer. If the Jays hadn't gotten under the tax, they would have lost another $500,000. That would have tied them with the Yankees, Mets, Astros, and Giants, who have the smallest bonus pools in the league for this year's signing period. Spending rules are strict when it comes to international amateur free agency. Teams can add more bonus pool money in trades, as the Blue Jays did last winter, taking on Myles Straw's contract from the Guardians in exchange for an extra $2 million to offer Roki Sasaki. However, there are rules. Bonus space can only be dealt in increments of $250,000, and clubs cannot acquire more than 60% of their original assigned pool. This year, for instance, Toronto could not have traded for more than $3.25 million. Bonus pool space is a valuable trade asset because teams cannot exceed their allotment (original pool + any bonus money acquired in trades) for any reason. This isn't like the first-year player draft, in which teams can accept a penalty and spend more than they have in their bonus pool. It's a hard cap. Well... except that bonuses of $10,000 or less do not come out of the pool. The Jays could spend up to $5.94 million in larger bonuses this year and still hand out as many $10,000 bonuses as they'd like. So, how have the Blue Jays been using their $5.94 million? On Wednesday, they announced the signings of 27 international free agents: Player Position Country of Origin Juan Caricote C Venezuela Sebastian Casanova INF Venezuela Yariel Cordero INF Dominican Republic Sahir De La Cruz RHP Dominican Republic Abrahan Diaz RHP Venezuela Fayone Dumorne RHP Dominican Republic Frelian Flores INF Venezuela Evington Gascon RHP Venezuela Deret Gonzalez OF Venezuela Jose Gori C Venezuela Elian Guzman LHP Dominican Republic Celwin Hurkmans LHP Netherlands Alex Linares INF Dominican Republic Eiker Lothar INF Venezuela Michael Mesa OF Dominican Republic Yoenis Morales RHP Cuba Adrian Moreta RHP Dominican Republic Luis Nunez OF Dominican Republic Samuel Orellana C Venezuela Ayberson Ortega C Venezuela Manuel Parra RHP Venezuela Gabriel Porras INF Venezuela Ruben Sanchez INF Venezuela Aneudi Severino OF Dominican Republic Franiel Severino RHP Dominican Republic Alieski Torres RHP Cuba Isay Veras C Dominican Republic Elian Guzman, Celwin Hurkmans, Isay Veras, and Alieski Torres signed in December, at least according to MLB.com's transaction tracker. In other words, those four might technically count among the international class of 2025. The other 23 officially joined the organization this past week. Catcher Juan Caricote commanded just over one-third of Toronto's bonus pool. MLB.com has him signing for $1,847,500, while Baseball America reported a slightly higher figure, $1.95 million. Outfielder Michael Mesa received the second-largest bonus of the class, though MLB.com and Baseball America are farther apart in their reported figures. MLB.com has him earning $797,500, while BA suggests it's $900,000. The last prospect whose bonus has been reported is outfielder Aneudi Severino. (Some sources spell his name "Aneudy," but MLB.com and the announcement from the Blue Jays spell his name with an "i" at the end.) MLB.com has his bonus at $697,500, while BA has it at $700,000. That's likely just a rounding error rather than a meaningful difference in reporting. According to Baseball America's Bonus Board, Caricote received the 17th-highest bonus in this year's international class. Mesa's bonus ranks 55th and Severino's 71st. Regardless of whether you take the slightly higher figures from MLB.com or the slightly lower ones from BA, that's just under two-thirds of the bonus pool on those three players. As far as we know, none of the other 24 signed for more than $300,000, though further details about their bonuses are a mystery. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked Caricote as the 11th-best prospect in this year's international class. The 17-year-old backstop was the only one of Toronto's signees to appear on FanGraphs's list, which went 59 players deep. He also appeared at No. 10 on FanGraphs's latest ranking of Toronto's top 40 prospects. Again, he was the only member of this year's international class to make the cut. Interestingly, however, Caricote was not included on MLB.com's ranking of the top 50 international prospects – but Mesa was. The lefty-batting outfielder came in at No. 30, with a blurb saying he could be the Dominican Republic's "best hitter in the ‘26 class." Baseball America does not rank international prospects, but Ben Badler published a write-up of the Blue Jays' signees, highlighting Caricote, Mesa, and Severino, as well as shortstops Sebastian Casanova and Gabriel Porras. Last year, shortstop Cristopher Polanco was Toronto's top-ranked international amateur signing, receiving a $2,297,500 bonus. However, fellow shortstop Juan Sanchez ($997,500 bonus) quickly became the star of the 2025 class. The young slugger put on a show in the DSL in his first professional season and is now widely considered a top-10 prospect in the system. View full article

The Toronto Blue Jays have more starting pitchers than they know what to do with. Their bullpen hasn’t been the subject of nearly as much discussion, but it’s a deep group, too. Not including the six main candidates for the starting rotation, the Blue Jays have 10 pitchers on their 40-man roster with at least 50 games of big league experience: Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Rogers, Yimi García, Louis Varland, Brendon Little, Eric Lauer, Tommy Nance, Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher, Mason Fluharty, and Bowden Francis. That doesn’t even include Chasee Lee (32 MLB games); Rule 5 selections Angel Bastardo and Spencer Miles; prospects Ricky Tiedemann, Adam Macko, and Lazaro Estrada (2 MLB games); or the experienced arms that aren’t on the 40-man roster, namely Yariel Rodríguez and Jorge Alcala. That’s a lot of names. Like I said, it’s a deep group. It’s also a high-variance group. FanGraphs has Toronto’s bullpen as the seventh-best in baseball on their projected depth charts. However, the difference between the Jays in seventh and the Orioles in 16th is less than one projected win. It isn’t hard to picture a scenario in which this bullpen is one win worse than projected. Heck, it isn’t hard to picture a scenario in which every single member of this arm barn fails to meet expectations. What’s the solution? The Blue Jays don’t need another veteran on a guaranteed contract. They don’t need to limit their flexibility any further. To limit variance and raise their floor, what they need is even more depth. They need a pitcher who won’t battle for a spot on the Opening Day roster but who offers a proven floor as a capable major league pitcher. They need their next Eric Lauer. They need Kolby Allard. Allard is a great fit for Toronto. The 28-year-old has appeared in each of the last eight seasons (Experience? Check!), and he’s coming off what was arguably the best year of his career (Upside? Check!). He has a 5.34 ERA and 4.92 FIP for his career, but in 2025, those numbers were 2.63 and 3.54, respectively. A southpaw, Allard would help to balance a righty-heavy staff. Like Lauer, he also has experience as both a starter and a reliever. Hopefully, he wouldn’t ever need to start for the Blue Jays, but there’s no such thing as too much rotation depth. Most importantly, he should be available on a minor league deal. Listen, Allard was good last year. He really was. The lefty went more than one inning in 23 of his 33 appearances for a total of 62 innings pitched. That’s the second-highest total of his career, and the highest in his years as a primary reliever. Adjusted for park effects and the 2025 run environment, his ERA was 35% better than league average. His FIP was 15% better. His expected ERA ranked in the 79th percentile. That successful season underscores Allard’s talent. And there could be room for growth. According to pitch models like PitchingBot, Pitching+, and PitchPro, his cutter was his best pitch last year. Per the models, it’s been his best pitch throughout his career. Yet, the on-field results say otherwise. Opposing hitters have crushed his cutter for a .369 wOBA and a .355 xwOBA, compared to a .327 wOBA and .328 xwOBA on all his other pitches. Even last season, when Allard was at his best, his cutter yielded a .376 wOBA and a .363 xwOBA. The rest of his offerings combined for a .278 wOBA and a .272 xwOBA. Those aren’t just good numbers, they’re excellent. In a vacuum, his cutter looks like his strongest weapon. In actuality, it’s been holding him back. The right coaching could change that. With all that said, I can’t forget I’m writing about a pitcher with a career ERA well above 5.00. Allard signed a minor league deal with Cleveland last winter, went unclaimed on waivers after he was designated for assignment in the summer, and then re-signed with the Guardians on another minor league contract. While he made the postseason roster, he was the only arm that Stephen Vogt never used in Cleveland’s three-game Wild Card Series against Detroit. My point? He’s not going to be in high demand. Simply put, Kolby Allard isn’t an exciting name. That isn’t a knock on the eight-year MLB veteran, it’s just a fact. Leverage index (LI) is a metric that tries to quantify the pressure of any given game situation, taking into consideration the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on base. Allard has made 109 appearances in his big league career; according to LI, he only entered 10 of those games in situations where the pressure was higher than average. A neutral LI is 1.00. The league average LI for a reliever when entering games tends to hover between 1.10 and 1.15. In other words, relievers tend to enter in higher-leverage situations. That makes sense. Allard’s average leverage index when entering games (gmLI) has never been higher than 0.87 in a season. His career average is 0.75. Only one active pitcher (JT Brubaker) has thrown more innings than Allard with a lower gmLI. All of this means Allard doesn’t often enter games with an opportunity to make a significant impact. And when he has made an impact, it hasn’t often been the kind of impact he was hoping. Allard owns a 13-26 record. Only three active pitchers have more career decisions and a lower winning percentage (Patrick Sandoval, Gregory Soto, and former Blue Jay Jordan Hicks). Allard’s teams have gone 37-72 (.339) in his appearances. Those same clubs – the Braves, Rangers, Phillies, and Guardians – had a .524 winning percentage in all their other games. That’s the difference between a 55-win pace and an 85-win pace. On a similar note, Allard has never pitched in the playoffs, despite playing for division-winning teams in each of the past three seasons. So, as much as I like Allard for the Blue Jays, my appreciation comes with qualifiers. In other words, I like him for what he is: minor league depth. Most minor league depth acquisitions don’t work out as nearly well as last winter’s Lauer signing. Still, Lauer’s story is the pudding-covered proof that minor league depth signings are essential. My fingers are crossed that the Blue Jays won’t need another Lauer this season. They really shouldn’t. But if they do, Kolby Allard could be that guy. View full article

According to reporter Francys Romero, the Toronto Blue Jays were among the teams "most closely monitoring" free agent Yoán Moncada's market before he ultimately re-signed with the Los Angeles Angels. Romero notes that the Pirates and Red Sox had also shown interest in the third baseman. About a month ago, Romero reported that Toronto had expressed "early interest" in Moncada. However, that was before they signed Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year, $60 million deal. Like Moncada, Okamoto's primary position is third base. Moncada, 30, played in 84 games for the Angels in 2025. He hit .234 with 12 home runs and an 11.1% walk rate, finishing with a 117 wRC+. Thumb and knee injuries cut into his playing time; IL stints have been a recurring theme throughout the switch-hitter's career. It wasn't entirely clear how Moncada would have made sense for the Blue Jays even before they signed Okamoto. So, the suggestion that they were still keeping an eye on him is more than a little surprising. Nevertheless, Romero's report is at least an indication that the Blue Jays might not be finished adding to their offense this winter. Featured image courtesy of Kirby Lee, Imagn Images. View full rumor

Admittedly I don’t know a ton about the type of players who usually do or don’t get the spring training invite. But this does feel odd, considering his bat seems so close to big league ready. Makes me think the Jays really don’t like his glove? But even then, why not give him the ST reps, even if he’s just auditioning to be a trade chip.

Blue Jays pitchers and catchers will report to the team's spring training complex in Dunedin on February 11, while the first full-squad workout is scheduled for February 16. Five days later – exactly one month from today – the Jays will host the Phillies for their first game of the spring. Today, the Blue Jays announced the names of 20 non-roster invitees who will be joining the players from the 40-man roster (and several more NRIs) in big league training camp. It's an exciting list, made up of eight pitchers and 12 position players and including many of the top prospects in the system. All of these NRIs are rookie eligible, except for Yariel Rodríguez, who was outrighted off the 40-man earlier this winter. Javen Coleman, LHP Chad Dallas, RHP Ryan Jennings, RHP Fernando Perez, RHP (JC No. 19) Gage Stanifer, RHP (JC No. 6) Yariel Rodríguez, RHP CJ Van Eyk, RHP Chay Yeager, RHP Robert Brooks, C Edward Duran, C Aaron Parker, C Geovanny Planchart, C Cutter Coffey, INF Josh Kasevich, INF (JC No. 11) Sean Keys, INF Charles McAdoo, 3B (JC No. 14) Arjun Nimmala, SS (JC No. 3) Josh Rivera, INF Riley Tirotta, UTIL RJ Schreck, OF (JC No. 9) The Blue Jays have also extended a spring training invitation to several free agents they signed to minor league deals. This includes left-hander Michael Plassmeyer, right-hander Jorge Alcala, outfielder/DH Eloy Jiménez, and utility players Rafael Lantigua and Carlos Mendoza. Featured image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images. View full rumor

It's hard to see much of a path to playing time for Loperfido right now, considering the Jays already have four outfielders who can bat left-handed (Varsho, Barger, Santander, and Lukes). But if they traded him now, they'd be trading low, considering his mediocre Triple-A numbers last year. He still has one option remaining, so I'm definitely of the opinion that they should stash him with the Bisons to start the year. Hopefully, he does enough to increase his trade value. And if someone else gets hurt, the Jays will be glad they kept him around.

Obviously, Donovan lacks the star power of a Tucker or Bichette. And adding star power is presumably the number one reason the Jays were in the market for those guys. But in terms of fit, Donovan really is kind of perfect. He's the lefty impact bat we've been hearing that the Jays want all offseason, he'd replace the bat-to-ball skills the Jays lost in Bichette, and the defensive versatility makes him easy to slot in anywhere.

For what it's worth, the Depth Charts projections at FanGraphs are quite high on Toronto's bullpen. They rank seventh right now. Currently those projections are only based on Steamer (with manual playing time and leverage estimates), but soon they'll also include ZiPS. And like Jesse mentions, ZiPS is high on the Jays' bullpen too. Here's what Dan Szymborski wrote in his Blue Jays ZiPS article: "Despite the middle-of-the-pack results last year, ZiPS is actually rather enamored with Toronto’s relief corps... their deep store of talent might even justify them trading a reliever or two."

Tomorrow, the results of the BBWAA Hall of Fame election will be announced on MLB Network. Carlos Beltrán will be a Hall of Famer. Andruw Jones is likely to join him. Meanwhile, most of this year’s newcomers to the process will officially fall off the ballot and out of consideration. That includes former Blue Jays All-Star Edwin Encarnación. Of course, next year will bring a whole new crop of first-timers to the ballot. So, I set out to find which of them, if any, suited up for our Toronto Blue Jays. Limiting my search to those who actually played an MLB game for the Blue Jays, I found three names that could appear on the next BBWAA ballot. If all three of them make the ballot, they’ll join Mark Buehrle and Omar Vizquel as the former Jays under consideration for the Hall of Fame class of 2027. Before I tell you who they are, I’ll make things clear: None of them is going to be inducted into the Hall. I doubt any of them will stick on the ballot for more than one year. Yet, as I laid out in a piece about Buehrle last week, just appearing on the ballot is an honour. Without further ado, those three players are Joakim Soria, J.A. Happ, and John Axford – listed in order of likelihood to appear on the ballot, at least in my opinion. If I were ranking in terms of their impact on the Blue Jays, there’s no doubt Happ would be first. I couldn’t blame you if you forgot Soria and Axford played for the Jays at all. Soria, one of the greatest Rule 5 draft success stories, played for nine teams over 14 MLB seasons and recorded saves for seven of them. His 229 career saves put him in the top 50 all-time (44th), while his 20.82 Win Probability Added (per FanGraphs) places him among the top 20 relief pitchers dating back to 1974. His 15.4 fWAR and 18.6 bWAR both rank 10th among 21st century relievers. His time with the Jays was brief and forgettable; Toronto acquired him at the trade deadline in 2021, and he pitched to a 7.88 ERA in 10 appearances down the stretch. He announced his retirement after the season. Happ finished as the runner-up for the NL Rookie of the Year in 2009, earned a handful of down-ballot votes for the AL Cy Young in 2016, and finally made his first All-Star team in 2018. From his first full season until his last in 2021, he ranked eighth in the majors in starts and 10th in wins. All told, the lefty pitched in 354 games (328 starts) for eight different teams, but he spent far longer in Toronto than anywhere else. First acquired in a mid-season 10-player trade with the Astros in 2012, Happ pitched for the Blue Jays through the 2014 season. They traded him to the Mariners for Michael Saunders the following offseason but re-signed him a year later. He then suited up for Toronto until the deadline in 2018, when the Jays sent him to the Yankees. In 135 total games with the Blue Jays, Happ collected 59 wins and 691 strikeouts, pitching to a 3.88 ERA. Last is Axford. The Brewers saw something in the Ontario native that no one else did. They signed him off the trash heap in 2008, and two years later, he was a star closer. In 2010, Axford succeeded the great Trevor Hoffman as Milwaukee’s ninth-inning arm, and in 2011, he led the Senior Circuit with 46 saves. He was named the NL’s Rolaids Relief Man and also earned down-ballot Cy Young and MVP votes. Axford finished his career with an ERA under 4.00 and 144 saves in 544 appearances. Yet, he really only had those two great seasons. He recorded almost half his career saves from 2010-11; over the next eight years, he pitched to a 4.50 ERA with a neutral WAR and a negative WPA. His time with the Blue Jays was almost as brief as Soria’s. He gave the club 45 outings with a 4.41 ERA in 2018, collecting four wins and six holds before he was traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. In the table below, I’ve listed each of Soria, Happ, and Axford's career Wins Above Replacement (per Baseball Reference) as well as their scores in three Hall of Fame metrics: JAWS, Hall of Fame Monitor (HOFm), and Hall of Fame Standards (HOFs). Then, for comparison, I’ve listed the lowest score in each of those metrics by a player to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in each of the last 10 years. For instance, Rick Porcello has the lowest bWAR (18.8) and JAWS (18.6) on this year’s ballot, while Howie Kendrick has the lowest HOFm (12) and Alex Gordon has the lowest HOFs (14). You’ll see each of those numbers listed in the “2026” row. The final row lists the average of the lowest bWAR, JAWS, HOFm, and HOFs scores on the ballot for the last decade. Player bWAR JAWS HOFm HOFs Joakim Soria 18.6 17.4 47 16 J.A. Happ 21.1 20.8 23 18 John Axford 4.0 4.9 17 7 Year bWAR JAWS HOFm HOFs 2026 18.8 18.6 12 14 2025 7.5 7.9 22 7 2024 24.2 20.9 28 16 2023 14.5 13.3 15 11 2022 14.5 16.9 52 17 2021 17.8 16.6 14 4 2020 7.1 8.0 18 11 2019 5.5 6.0 0 5 2018 7.9 10.0 21 7 2017 14.1 13.5 6 11 Average 13.2 13.2 18.8 10.3 From these numbers, Soria and Happ both look like realistic contenders to make the ballot, while Axford is more of a long shot. That said, it’s not always easy to predict the Hall of Fame ballot. The number of players on the ballot changes every year, but for what it’s worth, 14 players are likely to exit after this year: Beltrán and Jones are on track for induction, Manny Ramirez will fall off after his 10th year of consideration, and 11 of the 12 newcomers (all except Cole Hamels) are unlikely to receive enough support to earn another year in the conversation. So again, that’s 14 spots opening up. Baseball Reference lists 31 contenders for a slot on the potential ballot for 2027. The BBWAA could choose more than 14 of them, but they certainly aren’t picking all 31. Only one of next year’s newbies has a legitimate Hall of Fame case, Buster Posey, though several more are locks for a spot on the ballot, including Jon Lester, Ryan Zimmerman, and Brett Gardner. I think Kyle Seager, Ervin Santana, Jake Arrieta, Jay Bruce, Asdrúbal Cabrera, and Pablo Sandoval are safe bets too. After those 10, I’d say Soria and Happ have as good a case as anyone. Here’s where all three former Jays rank among newcomer candidates in the stats I listed above: Player bWAR JAWS HOFm HOFs Joakim Soria 18th 19th 3rd 14th J.A. Happ 13th 13th 11th 11th John Axford 31st 31st 16th 26th Once more, Soria and Happ strike me as likely ballot candidates but not locks. Then again, I might be too low on Soria, considering he was a closer. If guys like Fernando Rodney, Huston Street, Heath Bell, and former Blue Jay LaTroy Hawkins appeared on the ballot in recent years, Soria should have a spot. And if Axford even has a case, maybe Soria is a lock after all. Two years from now, we’ll see David Price on the ballot. In three years, Josh Donaldson will have his turn. But before then, it could be Soria, Happ, and possibly Axford representing the Blue Jays on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. While they won't ever be Hall of Famers, it will be nice to remember and celebrate their MLB careers. View full article

On March 27, the Blue Jays will take the field for Opening Day 2026. They'll do so as the reigning American League champions for the first time in 32 years. But they'll do it without Bo Bichette for the first time since 2019. Here's what Toronto's Opening Day lineup looked like the last time Bichette wasn't a part of it: Brandon Drury, 3B Randal Grichuk, RF Teoscar Hernández, LF Justin Smoak, 1B Lourdes Gurriel Jr., 2B Kevin Pillar, CF Rowdy Tellez, DH Danny Jansen, C Freddy Galvis, SS Charlie Montoyo was the newly-appointed manager. Marcus Stroman was the starting pitcher. A new era of Blue Jays baseball was on the horizon, but it hadn't started yet. It wouldn't begin until two kids named Vladdy and Bo debuted later that year. The Blue Jays signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as an international free agent in 2015. They drafted Bichette the next summer. The two young hitters, both the sons of MLB All-Stars, played together on the left side of the infield at every level of the minors. By the end of the 2017 season, the consensus was clear: Guerrero and Bichette were the Blue Jays' two top prospects, and two of the most highly-regarded youngsters in the minor leagues. It couldn't have been easy for Bichette to play in his teammate's shadow. Guerrero joined the organization earlier. He was always the higher-ranked prospect. He got the call to Triple-A and MLB first. His dad wasn't just an All-Star and a Silver Slugger winner; he was a Hall of Famer. It was always Vladdy and Bo, never Bo and Vladdy. Yet, it was Bichette who had the stronger rookie season. He reached base safely in each of his first 17 games, which included an MLB-record nine game doubling streak. In 2020, he outhit Guerrero again, albeit in a limited sample. It was in 2021 that they both became stars. In July, they played together on the All-Star team. At season's end, Guerrero was the MLB home run king, while Bichette led the AL in hits. Ultimately, it was Vladdy's year to shine; Guerrero finished runner-up for AL MVP, while Bichette earned some down-ballot votes and finished 12th. In each of the next two years, however, Bichette was arguably the better player, finishing ahead of Guerrero in FanGraphs WAR and MVP voting. You could say that Vladdy was the face of Blue Jays baseball in the 2020s (and he certainly is now), but really, for the last five years, Guerrero and Bichette were the faces of the team together. They were one of baseball's most fruitful partnerships. At risk of stating the obvious, it's sad to see that come to an end. Two months ago, I thought I was playing devil's advocate when I suggested that the Blue Jays shouldn't prioritize re-signing Bichette. I thought for sure his name was at the top of Ross Atkins's list. I knew there was an argument for making other moves – heck, I made that argument – but at the same time, I didn't really believe things would change. Or maybe I just didn't want to. Then the Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease to the kind of contract Bichette was hoping to land. And the Kyle Tucker rumors started to percolate. And the Jays signed Kazuma Okamoto. Eventually, I started to realize Bichette wasn't coming back. Yet, it wasn't until yesterday that it really sank in. I understand it. I get why the Jays weren't going to beat the Phillies' reported seven-year, $200 million offer. I get why they didn't beat the Mets' winning bid of three years and $126 million. That doesn't mean I'm going to miss Bichette any less. All that's left to say is bye-bye, Bo. Can't wait to cheer for you, and then beat you, when you come back in June. Thanks for the memories – especially this one. View full article

Well... I guess re-signing Bo is off the table now. What do we think about Bellinger? Haha