Leo Morgenstern

If there's anyone who understands what Bowden Francis is going through, it's Alek Manoah. Francis was sensational for Toronto over the final two months of the 2024 season, pitching to a 1.53 ERA in nine starts. He struck out 56 and walked only seven, while holding opponents to a .121 batting average. The city quickly embraced him; not just anyone gets chosen to star in Adidas ads on Sportsnet. The team did too. Despite a poor spring, Francis beat out Yariel Rodríguez for the final spot in the 2025 Opening Day rotation. However, things quickly went downhill from there. Francis was solid over his first five starts in 2025, but as I pointed out, the underlying numbers suggested serious cause for concern. Lo and behold, he gave up five homers in three innings during his sixth start of the year. By mid-June, his ERA had ballooned to 6.05, while his 5.91 expected ERA was no better. His home run rate was the worst in the league. When the Blue Jays placed him on the injured list two weeks ago with a shoulder impingement, it wasn't a tough blow – it was a relief. Manoah could surely relate. He was a much higher draft pick and a higher-ranked prospect than Francis ever was. He also had a more convincing breakout. Yet, that only made his fall from grace all the more disappointing. Following a rock-solid rookie season in 2021 (3.22 ERA in 20 starts), Manoah took a huge step forward in his sophomore campaign, earning an All-Star nod and a top-three Cy Young finish. His 2.24 ERA ranked third in the AL. Then 2023 came along, and Manoah fell apart. He gave up five earned runs on nine hits in his Opening Day start, failing to escape the fourth. It was more of the same over the next two months, and the Blue Jays eventually had no choice but to option him down to the minor leagues. He continued to struggle upon his return, finishing the season with a 5.87 ERA and 6.12 xERA in 19 starts. A shoulder injury held Manoah back early in 2024. When he made his season debut in May, he looked a little better but still not like the dominant ace he had been in 2022. After just five starts, he was back on the IL, this time with a torn UCL. He'd be out for 12 months at the very least. Those 12 months have now passed, and Manoah is working toward his comeback. While he has yet to start a rehab assignment, he hit 95 mph in a live bullpen session last week. He's set to throw another bullpen today. If things continue to go well, an early August return seems possible. As for Francis, his timeline is less clear. With how poorly he was pitching this year, one might have thought his IL stint was of the phantom variety, allowing him some time to clear his head and the Blue Jays to temporarily take him off the active roster. Yet, he received a cortisone shot shortly after his IL placement, and it's now been more than two weeks since he last pitched. According to Sportnet's Arden Zwelling, he started "playing flat-ground catch from 60-90 feet" on Friday. Presumably, the next step is a live bullpen or two, and after that, he'll have been gone long enough that he'd probably need at least one rehab start. There's no reason to think he won't be back at some point in July or August, but right now, that's really all we can say. Given all the similarities between Manoah and Francis, and the fact that the Blue Jays could certainly use some healthy starting pitching depth, I can't help but pit the two of them against each other. I can't help but wonder: Which pitcher has a better chance to make a significant impact for Toronto over the final three months of the 2025 season? Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, and Eric Lauer make up a perfectly solid five-man rotation for the Blue Jays. However, Lauer remains a question mark – it's been less than a year since he was struggling in the KBO – and Scherzer is an injury risk. (After missing close to three months with a thumb injury, he felt more fatigue in his thumb last night in his second start back from the IL.) Toronto will almost surely need more than just those five to get through 78 more regular season games. Even if those five remain healthy and effective, the Jays will need to find roles for Manoah and Francis once they're ready to return, unless they're planning to stash them both in Triple A – a course of action that seems unlikely. So, I ask again, which of Francis and Manoah has a better chance to make an impact over the final months of 2025? Manoah was the first-round pick, the top-100 prospect, the All-Star, and the Cy Young finalist. Over 51 starts from 2021-22, he pitched to a 2.60 ERA and 3.51 FIP. Yet, he's now trying to return from major elbow surgery, and it's been two and a half years since he was last a truly great starting pitcher. He had the higher peak, but that peak is getting farther and farther away. Francis never had a pedigree like Manoah's, but he was every bit as effective last August and September as Manoah was in his Cy Young finalist campaign. While Francis didn't maintain his success for nearly as long as Manoah, he was an effective big league pitcher far more recently. What's more, he's not recovering from major surgery. He might not have quite as high a ceiling, but he has fewer obstacles in his way. There's a world in which Francis and Manoah both struggle upon their respective returns. There's a world in which they both suffer setbacks (knock on wood) and neither makes his way back to a big league mound at all in 2025. On the flip side, there's a world in which they both get healthy and rediscover what made them each so effective in their breakout seasons. But we're Blue Jays fans. We've learned to temper our expectations. So, instead of dreaming that both Manoah and Francis can contribute meaningful innings down the stretch in 2025, I'm wondering which of the two is the safer bet to succeed. The thing is, I really, truly can't come up with an answer. So please, help me make up my mind by casting a vote in the poll below. Which injured Blue Jays starting pitcher do you have more faith in right now: Bowden Francis or Alek Manoah? View full article

Once, the game's preeminent workhorse, Max Scherzer has developed an injury-prone reputation late in his career. The 40-year-old has spent time on the injured list in each of the past five seasons. He has been hamstrung by shoulder injuries and shouldered by hamstring injuries. Most recently, he has been nursing inflammation in his thumb, an issue that forced him out of his Blue Jays debut after just three innings and has kept him on the IL ever since. Well, until today. Toronto will reinstate the future Hall of Famer from the 60-day IL before tonight's game against the Guardians. Scherzer is finally back with a healthy thumb. (Or is he thumb with a healthy back? No, I had it right the first time.) I don't need to tell you how dominant Scherzer was at the height of his powers. The man has made eight All-Star teams, won three Cy Young Awards, and pitched a pair of no-hitters. As recently as 2021, he was a serious Cy Young contender. While three separate IL stints limited him to nine starts last year, he was still effective in those outings, pitching to a 3.95 ERA and 3.86 xERA in 43.1 innings. He wasn't striking batters out like he used to (he averaged slightly less than one strikeout per inning), but his 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio was impressive, and his 7.9% barrel rate was his best in five years. He did a particularly excellent job generating swings outside of the strike zone, helping him induce pop-ups and limit hard contact. In short, the Blue Jays had no reason not to think they were getting a capable back-end starter when they signed him to a one-year, $15.5 million deal over the offseason – presuming he could stay on the field. Of course, he wasn't able to contribute much over the first three months of the season. Indeed, as Jays Centre's Jesse Burrill pointed out earlier today, this team hasn't gotten what it was hoping for from any of its big offseason additions, namely Scherzer, Anthony Santander, Andrés Giménez, and Jeff Hoffman. But there is still time to turn things around. The Blue Jays have not had a proper five-man rotation since Scherzer hit the IL. In addition to Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, and Bowden Francis, eight pitchers have started a game for Toronto. First it was Scherzer. Then it was Easton Lucas, who looked like he might just be the answer after his first two scoreless starts, until he imploded in outings three and four. Since then, the Jays have tried openers and bullpen games. They've tried José Ureña and Spencer Turnbull. One of their depth arms, Eric Lauer, has actually pitched quite well, but just as Lauer started to establish himself as a real option for the rotation, Francis landed on the injured list. So, even if Lauer continues to exceed expectations, the Blue Jays still need Scherzer to stay healthy if they're finally going to have a complete five-man rotation again. Considering their lack of rotation depth, the Jays will have to be happy with whatever kind of production Scherzer can offer. Still, it's impossible not to dream about him turning back the clock and gifting Toronto a star-caliber performance. In his second and final rehab start last week, he struck out eight of the 17 batters he faced, generating 11 whiffs on 36 swings. Sure, he was facing Triple-A competition, but five of the hitters in the Worcester Red Sox lineup were recent major leaguers: a rehabbing Wilyer Abreu, as well as Nick Sogard, Vaughn Grissom, Trayce Thompson, and Blake Sabol. What's more, Scherzer's average fastball velocity was up to 92.5 mph, compared to 91.9 mph in his lone Blue Jays start in March. He also topped 94 mph four times last week. He wasn't able to hit 94 mph at all in March, and in 2024, he only topped 94 mph 17 times all season. In Scherzer's start on March 29, he clearly didn't have his best stuff. He gave up two runs in three innings while striking out only one. However, his control was on point. According to Location+ (defined by FanGraphs as "a count- and pitch type-adjusted judge of a pitcher’s ability to put pitches in the right place"), Scherzer's first start for the Blue Jays was his best since at least 2020 – that's as far back as the numbers go. PitchingBot Command, a similar metric, grades Scherzer's outing on March 29 as his third-best since 2020, and the only two that have it beat were absolute gems. He might have been throwing heat or missing bats, but he was locating his pitches with remarkable precision. Take those numbers with an ocean's worth of salt. A single 45-pitch start is a tiny sample. Having said that, if Scherzer can combine that elite command with the slightly better stuff he showed in his last rehab game, perhaps he can be more than just a back-end starter. I know it's not a likely outcome, but if there's any player who can rediscover greatness in his forties, Scherzer is the one to do it. So, I'm preparing to watch his start tonight with a glass-half-full mentality. I'm genuinely hopeful that Scherzer can bring some much-needed stability to the back of Toronto's rotation, and I'm not willing to give up on the possibility that he could be more than a back-end arm. Call me naive, call me a hopeless dreamer, call me anything you want, but it's a lot more fun to be an optimist. We can go back to worrying about Scherzer's health if another issue arises, but until then, I'm going to enjoy watching an all-time great pitcher suit up for the Jays. View full article

It wasn’t until I was reading our most recent Blue Jays Week in Review that I realized how interested I was in the fact that the Jays used four different center fielders in a game last week. On Tuesday, June 17, the Blue Jays welcomed the Diamondbacks to Toronto. When Chris Bassitt threw the first pitch of the evening, a sinker to Corbin Carroll, Jonatan Clase was standing out in center field. Yet, in the bottom of the fourth, D-backs starter Brandon Pfaadt hit Clase in the knee with a pitch, and the young outfielder dropped to the ground in pain. He would eventually take his place on first base, but the following inning, it was Myles Straw, not Clase, jogging out to center field. Straw’s stint in center that day would prove to be even shorter than Clase’s, and before the fifth inning was up, John Schenider was forced to make another defensive change. While running down a fly ball from his former teammate Josh Naylor, Straw missed the catch and ran right into the wall, injuring his ankle. So, it was then Alan Roden’s turn to put on a glove and head out to play what was starting to seem like a cursed position. (Thankfully, neither Clase nor Straw landed on the injured list. If there ever was a curse, it was brief and benign.) Roden managed to last two whole innings, and when he exited, it was only because Scheider wanted to replace him with a right-handed pinch-hitter. However, that pinch-hitter, Davis Schneider, has never played center field in his career, so when the Jays returned to the field, Schneider took over in left and Will Robertson slid from left field to center, becoming the fourth center fielder of the day. None of them just stood there either. All four of Toronto’s center fielders last Tuesday had to make at least one play. Here’s a little compilation of Clase, Straw, Roden, and Robertson all manning the position: There’s no doubt this was unusual. Indeed, Blake Murphy of Sportsnet pointed out that this was the first time in franchise history the Blue Jays had used four different center fielders in one game. But I wanted to know more. Armed with a thirst for knowledge and a subscription to Stathead baseball, I started digging. I found that no other team has used four center fielders in a game this season, but the Royals used four different right fielders and four different left fielders in the same game on May 9. In addition, the Padres used four different hitters in the DH spot on April 27. No team has used more than three different players in one game at any of the four infield spots, and we have yet to see a team use more than two catchers in a single contest. Interestingly, while four different players at one position in one game is quite rare, it is surprisingly common for a team to use three separate players to field the same position. Between every position combined, it has already happened 148 times in 2025. The Jays are responsible for five of those cases: once at first base (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement, and Anthony Santander on May 25), once at second base (Clement, Straw, and Michael Stefanic on May 25), once at shortstop (Bo Bichette, Clement, and Stefanic on May 25), and twice in center field (Nathan Lukes, George Springer, and Straw on March 31; Lukes, Roden, and Straw on April 19). Looking beyond just this season, the idea of using four center fielders in a game isn’t quite as unusual. It’s happened on 15 separate occasions in the last 25 years. However, only once in recorded history has a team used more than four center fielders in one contest: the 2000 Detroit Tigers, who used five different players in center field during the penultimate game of their season on September 30. Meanwhile, the record for the most different players at any one position in one game is six. The 1972 Oakland Athletics used six second basemen on September 19, the 1965 Kansas City Athletics used six right fielders on September 8, and, much more recently, the 2016 Cubs used six left fielders on June 28. The record at every other position except for catcher is five, while the highest number for backstops is four. As for the Blue Jays, this isn’t the first time they’ve used four different players at one position in one game, but you have to go all the way back to the '80s to find another. On September 25, 1985, the Blue Jays used four separate first basemen: Cecil Fielder, Rick Leach, Al Oliver, and Willie Upshaw. One season earlier, on May 15, 1984, the Jays used four different third basemen: George Bell, Kelly Gruber, Garth Iorg, and Rance Mulliniks. A few years before that, on August 28, 1980, they played a game in which four players manned left field: Bob Bailor, Joe Cannon, Garth Iorg, and Dave Stieb. (That was the only non-pitching defensive appearance of Stieb’s career.) None of those games takes the cake, however. On September 3, 1979, the Blue Jays used five different players in the DH spot: Joe Cannon, Rico Carty, Craig Kusick, Tony Solaita, and, once again, Dave Stieb. Of course, DH isn’t a defensive position. What’s more, two of those “designated hitters” were really just pinch-runners – Stieb ran for Solaita and Cannon ran for Carty – and neither even took an at-bat. Nonetheless, they’re listed as having played DH in the box score. So, that Monday afternoon contest from the 1970s still stands as the only game in Blue Jays franchise history in which five different players shared one position. After learning all that, I can’t help but wish that John Schneider had made one more defensive substitution last Tuesday. He couldn’t have moved George Springer into the field without sacrificing his DH, but what if he’d given Ernie Clement a chance to add center field to his defensive resume? I know, I know, big league managers don’t consider the potential for a good fun fact when they make their decisions, but a trivia-loving baseball writer can dream! Stats updated prior to games on June 23. View full article

When the Blue Jays signed a 31-year-old George Springer to a six-year contract before the 2021 season, they knew he wouldn't be their starting center fielder all six years. Center field had been his primary position with the Astros from 2017-20. While he was never a Gold Glove winner (or even a finalist), he played well enough to make all three All-Star Games in that span and earn MVP votes in three of those four years. So, the Jays anticipated he could play a solid center field for at least a couple more years before moving down the defensive spectrum. Then, he would hopefully become a plus defensive corner outfielder. After all, he was a Gold Glove finalist in the one full season he spent in right field in 2016, and, in theory, a fielder who can hold his own in center should be comfortably above average in a corner spot. Things went more or less according to plan over the first four seasons of Springer's contract, at least as far as his glove was concerned. When healthy, he played a perfectly acceptable center field in 2021 and '22. Then, with Springer entering his age-33 campaign, Toronto went out and added center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, thereby relieving Springer of his center field duties and forming the best defensive outfield in the game. Springer wasn't the plus right fielder the Jays hoped he could be, but he was more than capable of playing the position and playing it almost every day. Indeed, his durability was more impressive than anything else; he played over 1,000 outfield innings in both 2023 and '24, something he had not done since his age-28 season in 2018. With Springer holding down the fort in right field as a complement to Varsho's and Kiermaier's elite performances, the Blue Jays' outfielders led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Outs Above Average (OAA), and Fielding Run Value (FRV) from 2023-24. Then came 2025. I don't mean to be too harsh on Springer. He's closer to 36 than 35; most players his age are no longer strong defenders. He's also enjoying a terrific season at the plate, and ultimately, if the Blue Jays have to put up with his defense every now and then to keep his bat in the lineup, so be it. Still, there's no ignoring how much of a liability he has been in the field. As I wrote last week, Springer ranks among the AL's top outfielders in numerous offensive categories. Yet, according to the numbers at FanGraphs, his negative defensive value (Def) cancels out his positive offensive contributions (Off). That's partly because he often plays DH, which comes with a harsh positional adjustment. The corner outfield spots have a negative adjustment as well. However, the biggest problem is that he ranks among the worst outfielders in the league in almost every defensive metric. None of this means he's been a bad player overall; it just means he's roughly average. While his power, plate discipline, and baserunning have all been excellent, his jumps, his range, and his arm have been equally impactful – only in the opposite direction. I know that might seem hard to believe. Springer has hit 15 doubles and 10 home runs. He's driven in 32. His walk rate is a career-high 12.9%, and his OPS sits at .800. Just a handful of qualified AL outfielders have a higher OPS or wRC+. On top of that, Springer is 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts. What's more, he has only made one error all season. How could he possibly have cost the Blue Jays more with his glove than he's supplied with his bat? I'm here to explain. Springer grades out as a defensive liability according to several metrics, including DRS (from Sports Info Solutions) and DRP (from Baseball Prospectus). However, I'm going to focus on Baseball Savant's FRV, because it's the most transparent and because it's the defensive metric that feeds into FanGraphs WAR. According to FRV, an average player would have saved the Blue Jays seven more runs than Springer this season. Only one outfielder, Nick Castellanos (-9), has cost his team more, and he has played about twice as many innings. For outfielders, FRV is the combination of OAA (converted to runs above average) and arm value. Springer ranks toward the bottom of the pack in both metrics this year, with -6 OAA and -2 throwing runs. Let's start with OAA. Taking into account the distance and direction the outfielder has to travel and how long the ball hangs in the air, Statcast calculates the catch probability of every ball that comes an outfielder's way. This number is used to credit or debit outfielders for the plays they do or do not make. For instance, if a ball has a 95% catch probability, an outfielder would earn 0.05 OAA for making the catch, and he would lose 0.95 OAA for not making the catch. In the same way, if a ball has a 5% catch probability, an outfielder would earn 0.95 OAA for making the catch, or he would lose 0.05 OAA for not making the catch. If all those percentages and decimals are too confusing, think of it like this: An outfielder will be heavily penalized for missing a can of corn and highly rewarded for making a highlight-reel play. Conversely, the penalty for missing a difficult play is low, as is the reward for making an easy catch. Springer has a 66.7% success rate (6-for-9) on plays with a catch probability between 91% and 95% (Statcast calls these "one-star opportunities"). That's not good. He is one of just six players to have missed three or more one-star catches this season, and the other five have all had more opportunities. No outfielder (min. five opportunities) has a worse one-star success rate. Now, as promised, let's get to the visuals. Here are the three one-star catch opportunities that Springer has failed to convert this year: One could make excuses for Springer on any of those plays, some more defensible than others. Regardless, simply considering (a) how long each of those balls stays in the air and (b) the distance he has to run to track each one down, it's not hard to understand why Statcast sees them all as high-probability catches. You could say the first was just a miscommunication, the second just a misread, and the third just a misplaced glove. You also could point out that all three of those plays came in the first two weeks of the season; perhaps he was just rusty. Yet, even if you're willing to overlook his mistakes, the fact of the matter is that if Springer got better jumps and covered more ground, he would have made all three of those plays. And it gets worse. The Statcast catch probability leaderboard doesn't even include plays with a catch probability above 95%, because we take it for granted that capable outfielders will make those plays (well, at least 96% of the time). So far in 2025, Springer has flubbed not one but two plays with an estimated catch probability of 99%. Here they are: Again, you could make excuses for Springer in both instances, and I'm not trying to say those excuses would be unfounded. The first clip shows another three-way miscommunication. The second shows him losing a ball in the sun. So, it might be a tad harsh that he's accumulated close to -5 OAA on the five misplays I've shown you. Yet, this brings us to another part of the problem: Springer hasn't made any great catches to atone for the ones he's missed. Even the best defenders make mistakes now and then. No one is immune to a lapse in judgment – or the blinding rays of the sun. However, good defenders can make up for their misplays. In the same way that a hitter can make fans forget an embarrassing pickoff with a big home run in his next at-bat, a defender can erase the negative value of a dropped one-star catch by converting a five-star opportunity. Springer hasn't done that. He has missed both of his five-star opportunities (0-25% catch probability) and both of his four-star opportunities (26-50%). He has also missed a pair of three-star opportunities (51-75%) and a two-star chance (76-90% catch probability). Here's what all of those missed catches look like, in descending order of difficulty: Meanwhile, these are Springer's most impressive catches of the year, according to Statcast: Both of those were great catches, and I could watch them on loop. Yet, the first one, which took Springer into the tarp at Fenway, had a catch probability of 55%. The second, which saw him dive and tumble to secure the ball, had a catch probability of 75%. In other words, neither play was quite as difficult as Springer made it look. A more skilled outfielder defender might have made both plays without getting his uniform so dirty. The other half of the FRV equation is what happens on balls that drop for hits. The methodology here is a little less straightforward, but in essence, Statcast uses inputs such as the runner's speed, the runner's position on the bases, and the outfielder's distance from both the ball and bases to calculate "an estimated success probability" for every opportunity a runner has to take an extra base on a batted ball. To calculate a fielder's "arm value," his actual success rate is compared to the estimated success rate on all of his opportunities. An outfielder whose actual success rate is higher than his estimated success rate will have a positive arm value, and vice versa. While Baseball Savant calls this metric "arm value," it's about more than just throwing the baseball. An outfielder's effort to prevent runners from taking extra bases starts the moment he takes his first step. Indeed, watch some of Springer's most costly plays according to the arm value leaderboard, and you'll see that the problem is often his slow instincts, inefficient routes, and poor positioning, rather than his arm strength: Those four plays alone cost Springer close to a full run of arm value, and he has yet to make any truly great throws to nab a baserunner and earn back that run. All told, he has a -2 arm value on the season. Only one outfielder, Mickey Moniak of the Rockies, is at -3. So, this is how George Springer's poor defense is cancelling out the value of his resurgent performance at the plate. You can make excuses for almost every individual misplay, but those excuses become less and less convincing with each subsequent fumble. He has been seeing more time at DH lately, but eventually, once Anthony Santander returns from the IL, he's going to have to play more outfield. Hopefully, he'll make fewer mistakes – and at least one great catch and one great throw. If his defense can just be passable instead of terrible, he can let his bat do the rest of the talking. Defensive stats updated prior to games on June 22. View full article

Let me start with a warning: If you came here looking for close analysis, well, that’s not what you’re going to get. It’s not necessary. Over the past month-plus, Addison Barger has been one of the most entertaining players, not just on the Blue Jays but across the major leagues. I want to celebrate that, and I hope you’ll join me. The Blue Jays have been scorching lately. Since a walk-off loss at the hands of the Angels on May 7, the Jays have gone 24-14 over the past six weeks. That’s a 102-win pace. They’re only half a game back of the Rays and Astros for the best record in the AL in that time. It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows. They lost two series to Tampa Bay, including a particularly devastating sweep. Three weeks later, it was Philadelphia’s turn to sweep Toronto, outscoring the Jays 22-6. Just yesterday, the D-backs built a 9-1 lead over the first six innings, and a late rally wasn’t nearly enough for the Jays to get back in the game. Yet, the highs have far outweighed the lows. The Jays swept the Mariners, Padres, Athletics, and Cardinals. They also won series against the Rangers, Phillies, Twins, and Diamondbacks. According to FanGraphs, their chances of making the playoffs have increased from a season-low 22.6%, after that tough loss to the Angels, to just over 60%. I’ve already written about two of the most important contributors during this stretch: Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement. Those two rank first and second on the team in FanGraphs WAR since May 8. However, it’s the player that ranks third whose greatness has been the most obvious: Barger is making the most of his superhuman strength to thrill fans on both sides of the ball. Correlation doesn’t equal causation, but it’s no coincidence that Toronto’s offense started to heat up at the same time Barger began to break out. What is a coincidence (but a fun one!) is that Barger’s breakout also perfectly coincided with Owen Hill’s article about the young hitter showing signs of improvement. The Angels walked off the Blue Jays on May 7. Owen’s article came out on May 8. Prior to its publication, Barger was 6-for-37 (.162) with two walks, three doubles, and zero home runs. His 33 wRC+ ranked last on the team. Since then, he is batting .306 with eight home runs and 23 RBI. Among Blue Jays batters, his .945 OPS is second only to Tyler Heineman’s .991, while his 163 wRC+ trails only Heineman’s (181) and Kirk’s (164). His 21 extra-base hits are easily the most on the team (Bo Bichette ranks second with 17). He has also been the kind of slugger who's just plain fun to watch! I'm not sure there's anyone on this club I'd rather see crush a walk-off home run. It's the beautiful swing. It's how high and how far the baseball travels. It's the intensity on Barger's face as he tosses his bat, and how that intensity fades to joy as his teammates swarm him at home plate. It's everything, really. Barger has made his mark in the field as well. His ability to play a capable right field and third base has made a huge difference for manager John Schneider. With the injuries to Daulton Varsho, Anthony Santander, and Nathan Lukes, Toronto’s outfield depth has been stretched thin. Meanwhile, the Jays entered the season without a true starting third baseman, and Barger’s glove at third has helped the team survive Will Wagner’s disappointing performance and allowed Ernie Clement to play the utility role he’s best suited for. Barger is one of just seven MLB players to have appeared in at least 15 games at third base and in the outfield this season, and one of only two with an OPS above .800. His range has been better than expected, but of course, the star of the show is his arm. The same strength that has him ranked among the top 10 qualified AL hitters in everything from bat speed to hard-hit rate to slugging percentage, isolated power, and extra-base hits (since May 8) also helps him in the field. Did you see that throw in the second clip I linked above? Don’t worry, here it is again: Byron Buxton is one of the fastest runners in the game. Barger is about as far over to the left as a fair groundball can take him. Somehow, he managed to get up from lying flat on the ground to unleash a throw that beat Buxton to the bag by a fraction of a second. Statcast requires a large enough sample of competitive throws to calculate average arm strength, so Barger hasn’t qualified for the leaderboard at third base in either of the past two years. However, he has made enough throws in 2024 and ‘25 combined to qualify for the all-time (since 2020) leaderboard at both third base and right field. Since Stacast began tracking this data, Barger’s 92.6 mph average arm strength at third base ranks fifth out of 169 qualified third basemen. Meanwhile, his 97.1 mph average arm strength from the outfield ranks fourth out of 214 right fielders and sixth among all 419 qualified outfielders. You might not guess it from his six-foot frame, but the man can slug and the man can throw. The Blue Jays are playing some of their best baseball since the 2022 stretch run, and Barger has been as big a part of it as anyone. We knew he was strong as a prospect, but right now, he's using that strength to make an impact beyond what any of us could have hoped for. View full article

I didn't mention this in the article, but I'd like to see Swanson land in Philadelphia. The Phillies have room in their bullpen, and they like a good reclamation project. And it would be interesting to watch them trying to fix Romano and Swanson.

Erik Swanson enjoyed his breakout campaign in 2022. Following three uneven and injury-plagued years with the Mariners, he made 57 appearances in the 2022 season, pitching to a 1.68 ERA, a 2.30 xERA, and an AL-leading 1.85 FIP. After striking out roughly 23% of his opponents from 2019-21, the 6-foot-3 righty upped his strikeout rate to 34%. Even better, he didn't have to sacrifice control to procure those extra punchouts. No AL pitcher (min. 25 IP) had both a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate. On top of that, Swanson gave up just one hit-by-pitch, one wild pitch, and three home runs all year. He never had so much as a 10-game stretch at any point in the season where his FIP was above league average. He never issued more than one non-intentional walk in an outing. Only once did he give up more than two hits in a game, and only twice did he give up more than one earned run. Simply put, Swanson was wholly, completely, and undeniably in control, from his first scoreless outing in April to his last in October. As effective as he was, Seattle mostly used him in lower-leverage spots, so he only racked up three wins, three saves, and 14 holds. Indeed, the Mariners never seemed to buy all the way in on Swanson as a back-of-the-bullpen stud. He began to see more high-leverage opportunities as the year went on, but after a few rough outings in September, he quickly lost whatever trust he had gained. In his first eight games in September, he gave up six earned runs in just under six innings of work. His ERA climbed from an MLB-leading 0.84 to 1.85. Yet, he also struck out nine of 26 batters while walking only two, giving him a 3.29 FIP, 2.82 xFIP, and 2.39 SIERA in that span. His opponents produced a .400 wOBA but just a .267 xwOBA; only one AL reliever faced more batters in that time and had a bigger mismatch between those two stats. What's more, Swanson finished the regular season on a high note, tossing five scoreless frames over his final four appearances, giving up two hits and a walk while striking out seven. Even so, the Mariners were strangely hesitant to use him in the playoffs. He didn't pitch at all in the Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays, and he didn't enter in the ALDS until the 13th inning of an 18-inning marathon in Game 3. That was partially because the Mariners had a bullpen loaded with talented arms. Still, it seemed like Swanson had fallen out of favor, at least a little bit, in the organization. Seattle's loss was Toronto's gain. Many Jays fans heavily criticized the Teoscar Hernández trade at the time, and I'm not here to relitigate. I'm not here to stir up controversy. But it's not controversial to say Swanson was terrific for the Blue Jays in 2023. In 66.2 innings, he pitched to a 2.97 ERA, a 3.04 xERA, and a 3.51 FIP. Those numbers don't look quite as impressive as his stats from the year before, but keep in mind that he pitched 13 more innings in a higher-leverage role at a much less pitcher-friendly home stadium. Additionally, the league-average ERA was about one-third of a run higher (3.97 in 2022, 4.33 in 2023). That's not to say everything was perfect – his strikeout rate fell to 28.6% and his walk rate rose substantially to 8.0% – but Swanson was nonetheless an excellent back-end arm. He earned a career-high four wins, four saves, and 29 holds (third in AL), and his 3.30 Win Probability Added placed him among the top 10 pitchers in the game. All told, from 2022-23, Swanson threw just over 120 innings with a 2.39 ERA. Only six relievers pitched to a lower ERA in at least as many innings. Only five had a higher strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%). None had both more strikeouts and fewer walks. We're talking about elite numbers here. By the time the 2024 season rolled around, Swanson was already 30 years old, and he didn't have a long track record of success. Regardless, the Blue Jays had good reason to believe they had one of the league's better set-up men at their disposal. What followed was a highly disappointing performance. Forearm tightness kept Swanson on the IL for the first three weeks of the season, and while the injury didn't prove to be serious, the righty wasn't himself upon his return. After he posted a 7.27 ERA and, even more concerning, just a 17.5% strikeout rate through his first 11 games, the Blue Jays optioned him to Triple A. His struggles continued in the minors, where he gave up 24 runs (19 earned) over 17 games. His strikeout rate barely improved, and he walked almost batters as he struck out. Nevertheless, the Jays called him back up after the All-Star break, largely due to a lack of other options. To his credit, Swanson was much more effective in the second half (2.55 ERA), although his peripherals suggested lingering problems. He pushed his strikeout rate back up to a healthy 27.6%, but his walk rate continued to climb. He finished the season with an ERA, xERA, and FIP all over 5.00, and that doesn't even take into account his disastrous performance at Triple A. Then, as if he weren't enough of a wild card already, Swanson suffered another arm injury that would keep him out for Opening Day 2025: a median nerve entrapment in his right arm. The Blue Jays were left to wonder what kind of pitcher they would get upon his return. Would he rediscover his dominant set-up man form from 2022-23, or would he continue to struggle like he had in 2024? As it turns out, the sad answer was that 2024 was just the tip of the iceberg. Swanson allowed eight runs (six earned) over 5.1 innings during his minor league rehab assignment in May. Upon his return to the majors in June, he gave up runs in four of his six outings, striking out just three of 30 batters while walking five and hitting one. A grand slam to Nick Castellanos over the weekend would turn out to be his last pitch (or, you know, his swan song) with the Jays. The front office had seen enough, and they designated the once highly effective reliever for assignment on Tuesday. His future is now up in the air. Just a few weeks ago, I was asking if any Jays Centre writers wanted to cover how Swanson's return could energize the Blue Jays' bullpen. Today, I'm writing about the team's decision to remove him from the roster. A fall from grace of this magnitude raises two equally difficult questions: What happened to Erik Swanson, and what's next? Unfortunately, there's no easy answer as to why Swanson has had so much trouble over the last two years. Is it injury-related? Perhaps. He has spent time on the IL in every season since 2020. Yet, if the Blue Jays' medical team had found any evidence of an injury, then surely they wouldn't have DFA'd him. The same goes for last year. If the Jays had reason to believe he hadn't fully recovered from the forearm tightness that held him back in March and April, they would have placed him on the IL instead of sending him down to Triple A. His velocity is down this year, which could be an indication of a lingering injury issue, but there was nothing unusual about his velo in 2024. In other words, that might be a piece of the puzzle, but it doesn't solve the whole thing. Could it be a pitch mix problem? Sure. Swanson has thrown the same three pitches for years – a splitter, a four-seam fastball, and a slider – but his usage patterns haven't been consistent. In his first year in Toronto, his splitter was his primary pitch against righties and lefties alike, but in 2024 and '25, his four-seam has taken on that job. Yet, his pitch mix over the past two years is actually quite similar to his pitch mix in 2022 with the Mariners, when he was at his best. So, the issue isn't as simple as him throwing too many fastballs and not enough splitters – especially since his fastball has been his most effective pitch the past two years. To that point, the drop-off in his splitter's effectiveness has been Swanson's biggest problem. From 2022-23, Swanson's splitter was not only his best pitch but arguably the most valuable splitter in the league. According to Baseball Savant, the split-finger had a context-neutral run value of +2.7 runs per 100 pitches. No other pitcher (min. 100 splitters) came particularly close. In 2024-25, Swanson's opponents have laughed at his splitter for a .404 wOBA (compared to a .201 wOBA from 2022-23). The pitch has a -2.7 RV/100. In other words, it has been just as bad as it once was good. When he has tried to use his splitter to challenge hitters over the plate, they have crushed it like never before. Unfortunately, that only means he's throwing fewer splitters in the strike zone, hence his soaring walk rate. So, what comes next for Swanson? There's a good chance he'll be claimed on waivers. He is only owed about $1.7 million for the remainder of the season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a team take a chance on him at that price. That said, it's more than possible no one puts in a claim. In that case, Swanson would have the option to elect free agency and look for a club willing to take him on at a cheaper price. Considering his upside, it shouldn't take him long to find a new home, but it's anyone's guess what happens after that. Will a new team be able to help Swanson return to form, or at least return to being an effective major league reliever? Or is the stuff that made him so dominant in 2022 and '23 gone forever? We'll have to wait and see. 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You've probably heard that Blue Jays' hitters are the game's best at putting the bat on the ball. (You might have even heard it from me.) Their 17.9% strikeout rate and 21.4% whiff rate are both the lowest in the majors. When the Blue Jays swing, they rarely miss. The same can't be said of their opponents, however. Last year, Blue Jays pitchers ranked second-to-last in the majors in whiff rate. Their opponents swung and missed just 23.7% of the time (per Baseball Savant). This year, that rate has climbed up to 26.7%, bringing the Blue Jays from second worst to fourth best. A three-percentage-point increase represents a massive year-to-year improvement in whiff rate. No other team's pitching staff has improved by close to as much: Team 2024 2025 Increase Blue Jays 23.7% 26.8% 3.1 Astros 27.4% 29.1% 1.7 Red Sox 23.7% 24.9% 1.2 Yankees 27.0% 28.2% 1.2 Rockies 21.9% 23.0% 1.1 D-backs 24.0% 25.1% 1.1 Giants 25.5% 26.5% 1.0 Guardians 25.5% 26.0% 0.5 Phillies 25.2% 25.6% 0.4 How are the Blue Jays' pitchers earning all these extra whiffs? Their opponents' swing rate has only increased slightly, rising from 47.7% to 48.0%. However, those swings have been more likely to come on pitches outside the strike zone. Toronto's pitchers have induced chases on 29.2% of out-of-zone pitches this year. That's a 1.1-percentage-point increase from last year, which is the largest year-to-year increase of any team. Even better, those chases have resulted in a bounty of whiffs. Blue Jays pitchers have increased their whiff rate on swings outside the zone more than any other team, going from third worst (41.1%) to top 10 (46.4%). As you might imagine, this has led to much better results for Toronto's pitching staff. Their 24.0% strikeout rate is the fifth-best in the league. So is their 15.9% K-BB%. Last year, they ranked among the bottom third of teams in both metrics. None of this is to say the Blue Jays have suddenly become a pitching powerhouse. Their arms have a collective 4.11 ERA, slightly worse than league average, and that's in spite of the phenomenal defense they pitch in front of. The root of the problem is what happens when Toronto's opponents manage to put the ball in play. Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a .373 wOBA on balls in play, which puts them among the bottom 10 teams in the league. Their .396 xwOBA on balls in play is even worse, ranking third-worst in baseball and dead last in the American League. This was an issue last year, too. The Jays ranked 23rd in opponents' wOBA and 27th in opponents' xwOBA on balls in play. Strong defense should help them maintain that gap between their wOBA and xwOBA, but there's only so much defenders can do when the opposing team is crushing the baseball – and often crushing it out of the yard: Blue Jays Pitchers Are Still Getting Crushed Home Runs Barrels Barrel Rate 97 (T-28th) 180 (29th) 10.4% (30th) 2025 data via FanGraphs, league rank in parentheses So, if Blue Jays pitchers are going to get killed on contact, the best thing they can do is prevent their opponents from getting the bat on the ball. (Well, really, the best thing they can do is stop giving up so much hard contact, but that's a topic for another day.) That's exactly what they've done. The Blue Jays' most notable bullpen additions from the offseason, Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, and Nick Sandlin, are all excellent at racking up whiffs. Rookie relievers Braydon Fisher and Mason Fluharty have also done excellent work inducing swing and miss. Best of all, Brendon Little has improved his already-excellent whiff rate to a league-leading (min. 30 IP) 47.5%. As you might have guessed from the list of players I offered up, Toronto's whiff rate improvement has a lot more to do with the bullpen than the starting rotation. In 2024, Jays relievers and starters had identical 23.7% whiff rates. This year, their starters' whiff rate is almost identical to last year, but their relievers have improved their whiff rate to an incredible 30.7%. Needless to say, that's the biggest year-to-year improvement of any team. The Jays shot up from last place in reliever whiff rate into the top two. Yet, to only focus on the relievers wouldn't be fair. Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Bowden Francis have all upped their whiff rates this season, albeit marginally, collectively improving from 22.0% to 24.0%. The reason it seems like the starters' whiff hasn't improved is because of the arms they've lost – namely Yusei Kikuchi and his 28.1% whiff rate with the Jays last year – and the lack of good replacements. The Max Scherzer signing was supposed to help the rotation in the whiffs department; even in his age-39 season, he induced whiffs at an excellent 29.2% rate last year. Unfortunately, the crew of fifth starters that have filled in for Scherzer have combined for a mere 22.8% whiff rate. That low number is undercutting the improvements the rest of the rotation has made. Regardless, there is no doubt that the Blue Jays' pitching staff has been better this season, in large part because they're inducing more whiffs. It's still far from a perfect group, but it's a big step up from last year. As long as the whiffs keep coming, this pitching staff can work with a stellar defense and solid lineup to keep the Jays in the postseason race. *** As an addendum, I'll leave you with a compilation I put together of some of the Blue Jays' pitchers' most impressive whiffs this year: Put that on repeat and inject it into my veins. Stats and rankings in article updated prior to games on Sunday, June 15. View full article

Alejandro Kirk went 2-for-5 on Wednesday. It was his 19th multi-hit game of the year. Yet, considering how well he's been playing lately, his performance in the series finale against the Cardinals was actually something of a disappointment. It marked the first time in two weeks that Kirk appeared in a game without either scoring or driving in a run. Through the first four weeks of the 2025 season, Kirk slashed a mediocre .211/.250/.282, good for a 49 wRC+. In 36 games and 142 plate appearances since then, he has a .388/.430/.527 slash line with a 172 wRC+. Those numbers are so ridiculously good that his two-hit performance on Wednesday somehow brought his OPS and wRC+ in that period down a few ticks. On April 25, Kirk went 2-for-4 with a double and two RBIs. Since that day, he leads all qualified players in batting average. He has reached base in 32 of the 36 games he's played. Only two AL batters have struck out at a lower rate, and only five have a higher wRC+: Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Jacob Wilson, and José Ramírez. Even more impressive, his .435 xwOBA ranks second only to Judge's. We aren't seeing the same level of production from Kirk that we saw in May and June of 2022 – he was just that phenomenal over those two months – but this is certainly the best he has looked at any point since the second half of the 2022 campaign: via FanGraphs All told, Kirk is now hitting .325 on the season, with a 129 wRC+ and an OPS above .800. He's walking less and swinging more, but how can you blame him when he's making such strong contact on those swings? Kirk has always been among the game's best at avoiding swing-and-miss, but what he's doing right now is so much more than that. He hasn't just been good at making contact, he's been good at making good contact. While he doesn't swing the bat particularly hard, Kirk is getting the most out of his swings, as reflected by his elite squared-up rate. Per MLB.com, squared-up rate measures how much of the highest possible exit velocity (calculated using bat and pitch speed) a batter obtains on his swings. An excellent squared-up rate is the missing link between Kirk's middling bat speed and elite hard-hit rate. With that said, he has also been swinging harder this season than in 2023 and '24. That's only further reason for optimism, especially considering he is still making contact at elite rates. In particular, Kirk has been using his faster swing to demolish offspeed pitches. He's hitting fastballs quite well, while breaking balls have given him some trouble as usual. As for offspeed stuff? His average exit velocity against offspeed pitches is 98.2 mph, while more than three-quarters of offspeed pitches he's put into play have registered as hard-hit. His wOBA on offspeed pitches is .503, while his xwOBA is nearly as impressive at .490. The sample size is small – offspeed offerings only represent 8.0% of all pitches he's seen this year – but the results are undeniable. No AL hitter (min. 50 offspeed pitches seen) has a higher Statcast RV/100 (run value per 100 pitches) against offspeed stuff than Kirk. Funnily enough, or perhaps exactly as you'd expect, it was an offspeed pitch that helped Kirk bust out of his early-season slump. And it wasn't just any offspeed pitch, but a changeup from arguably the best changeup pitcher in the game. On April 25, Kirk crushed a Devin Williams changeup to deep center field for a go-ahead double in the ninth. He’s been on fire ever since: It's also important to keep in mind that Kirk is so much more than his bat. He's one of the league's best defenders at the most essential defensive position. According to the numbers at Baseball Savant, he has been an elite framer, blocker, and thrower this season, and accordingly, he leads all catchers in Statcast Fielding Run Value (FRV). In addition, he leads AL catchers in Defensive Runs Above Average (Def) according to FanGraphs, and ranks among the top five in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Baseball Prospectus's Deserved Runs Prevented (DRP). Long story short? Every source agrees that Kirk is a major asset behind the plate. Everything he does at the plate is just gravy – and right now, that gravy is gourmet. The pressure was high for Kirk entering 2025. Without Danny Jansen to share the workload, he was going to be expected to catch significantly more often. Indeed, he's currently on pace to catch more than 1,000 innings this season. His career high is 775. On top of that, he signed a five-year, $58 million extension just days before Opening Day. The deal begins in 2026 and will keep him in Toronto through 2030. I argued at the time that his contract was extremely team-friendly, but even so, I can understand why it might have put more pressure on him to perform. The last thing he would have wanted was for fans to be calling him a bust before his new contract had even officially kicked in. At first, it seemed like Kirk might be crumbling under that pressure. Yet, instead of letting his slow start get to him, he's been able to turn things around in a remarkable way. Alejandro Kirk is playing like one of the best catchers in baseball right now. And still a youthful 26 years old, he might be just entering his prime. Stats and rankings updated prior to games on June 12. View full article

I've been giving the All-Star Game a lot of thought lately. The game, scheduled for July 15, is still more than a month away, but the first round of voting for All-Star starters kicked off last week. As the managing editor of a Blue Jays blog, it's my job to try to think of timely and relevant article ideas every day, and right now, All-Star voting is one of the buzziest topics around the league. The problem, however, is that the Blue Jays don't have many players with a strong case to start the game. Alejandro Kirk is playing well, but Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has all but locked up his first All-Star start. Kirk has no chance. The competition is much closer at first base, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s superstar status could earn him some extra votes, but he currently trails Jonathan Aranda, Spencer Torkelson, and Paul Goldschmidt in OPS and wRC+. Meanwhile, two of Toronto's top four players by WAR (both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference varieties) aren't even on the ballot: utilityman Ernie Clement and backup catcher Tyler Heineman. So, instead of thinking about fan voting for the All-Star starting lineup, I've already turned my attention to the pitching staff and the reserves, who are selected by the commissioner’s office or voted in via the players' ballot. You see, each team is guaranteed at least one All-Star every year. That means the Blue Jays will have a representative at the All-Star Game this summer, whether anyone on the club "deserves" the honor or not. It might be early, but I'm already starting to wonder who that rep might be. Kirk and Guerrero are having solid seasons, but I worry they have too much competition at their positions to earn a spot. Clement has far less competition at second base, and his versatility could also allow him to join the team as a utility player without taking up a spot at a particular position. He might seem like a strange choice at first glance, but he leads the team in bWAR and ranks a close second behind Kirk in fWAR. Additionally, he ranks among the AL leaders in several defensive metrics, which I wrote about on Monday. In fact, it was the discussion in the comments underneath that post that led me to write the piece I'm you're reading right now. However, as multiple commenters pointed out, Clement's bat isn't All-Star quality, and his status as a utilityman could actually end up working against him. (Sometimes, utility players get written off as bench players.) As much as I've enjoyed watching Clement this season, I have to agree. Barring a red-hot offensive performance over the next few weeks, he's probably not making the All-Star team. Another under-the-radar candidate to consider is Brendon Little. I first started to take his candidacy seriously last week, when I realized that only one AL reliever had thrown more innings with a lower ERA: Twins closer Jhoan Duran. That's still true, although Bryan Abreu of the Astros has tied Little; they've each given up five earned runs in 29 innings of work. (Note: This article was written prior to games on Monday, June 9.) Little is also one of just three AL relievers (min. 25 IP) to rank within the top 10 in both ERA and strikeout rate, along with Josh Hader of the Astros and Andrés Muñoz of the Mariners. Unfortunately, it's difficult for a non-closer to make the All-Star team, especially one with a track record as limited as Little's. That doesn't mean it's impossible; Yennier Cano in 2023 or Matt Strahm in 2024 are two recent examples of non-closers without much name recognition who rightfully earned All-Star selections. Still, Little is another longshot, even if one could argue he's the most deserving choice. At a loss for who might represent Toronto in this year's Midsummer Classic, I finally realized the answer had been under my nose all along. It's George Springer, who is enjoying an offensive renaissance in his age-35 campaign. A four-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and the 2017 World Series MVP, Springer saw his offensive performance drop off substantially in 2023 and '24. As he entered his fifth season with the Blue Jays, it seemed like his best days were behind him. Yet instead, the oldest hitter in Toronto's 2025 starting lineup has also been the most productive. He leads the team (min. 60 PA) in home runs (10), OPS (.852), and wRC+ (142). How didn't I consider this guy for an All-Star spot sooner? Indeed, Springer also stacks up quite nicely compared to other AL outfielders. Among the 45 outfielders on the AL All-Star ballot, only two, Aaron Judge and Matt Wallner, have a higher OPS or wRC+ than Springer. There's no doubt that Judge will be starting for the AL All-Star squad, but Wallner has only played 25 games this season, so his All-Star chances are slim. Among primary outfielders in the AL with a minimum of 100 plate appearances, Springer's 0PS and wRC+ rank second only to Judge. He also ranks second to Judge with a .403 expected wOBA, while his Win Probability Added (WPA) ranks third behind Judge and Trent Grisham. I knew Springer was having a terrific season, but I didn't realize just how terrific until I looked at the numbers. Funnily enough, the act of writing this paragraph has made me start to wonder if the Blue Jays might have an All-Star starter after all. But wait! There is a reason I initially overlooked Springer's All-Star candidacy, and it's no small concern: his glove. Springer might have a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage this year, but his defensive range isn't what it used to be. In just 277.2 innings, he has accumulated -8 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a -7 FRV (Fielding Run Value). Both of those numbers are tied for last among AL outfielders. What's more, Springer has DH'd in 25 games this year, and his 277.2 outfield innings rank just 38th in the Junior Circuit. Let that sink in: 37 outfielders have played more often – some have played more than twice as many innings – but none has a lower DRS or FRV. According to the numbers at FanGraphs, Springer's defense has been so bad that it almost cancels out all of the value he's provided with his bat. So, despite his 142 wRC+, he only has 1.0 fWAR, putting him on pace for a 2.5-win season. That's solid production, especially from a player who turns 36 in September, but it's hardly All-Star worthy. To that point, Springer ranks just 19th among AL outfielders in FanGraphs WAR. Take small amounts of WAR with a huge grain of salt, but there are typically only seven or eight spots for outfielders on the All-Star team. Springer has a lot of ground to make up if he's going to climb from 19th into the top eight. With that in mind, I almost wonder if he would have a better case for the All-Star Game as a candidate at DH. He would lead qualified AL designated hitters in stolen bases, while ranking third in wRC+ and OPS. However, there are usually only two DH spots on an All-Star roster, and currently, it would be hard to argue against those spots going to Rafael Devers and Ryan O'Hearn. Drat. Ultimately, I still think Springer is the Blue Jays' most likely All-Star. He wouldn't necessarily be my choice, but offensive stats tend to hold more weight than defensive metrics when it comes to All-Star selections, and Springer's offensive numbers truly are All-Star worthy. I'm not sure he'd get in if it weren't for the rule requiring every team to have at least one representative at the game. Yet, as of now, the need for one All-Star from Toronto clears a path for Springer to play in the fifth Midsummer Classic of his career. Stats updated prior to games on Monday, June 9. View full article

Seems like you're picking and choosing my words. I want to make sure my point is clear, because I think this is an interesting discussion! Clement might not be “deserving” compared to all AL players. I don't think he is, and I never said he was. But he doesn't need to be. Toronto gets an All-Star rep whether anyone "deserves" it or not. So Clement can be undeserving of an All-Star nod and still deserving compared to his teammates at the same time.

That’s totally fair, although Espinal wasn’t voted in by fans. And my point wasn’t that either of them is “deserving” per se, but rather that if Espinal could be selected, why not Clement? I think a point that’s missing in this discussion is that Toronto needs an All-Star. Every team gets one. Clement might not be “deserving” in comparison to the rest of the league — and I never said he was — but there is at least a case that he’s deserving in comparison to his teammates. If Springer can be Toronto’s All-Star rep with great offensive stats and, in my opinion, terrible defense, why can’t Clement be an All-Star with mediocre stats and elite defense?

I agree, but the Blue Jays need someone to represent them at the ASG... and to BB17's point, Santiago Espinal's All-Star first half in 2022 is actually a pretty close comp for what Clement is doing right now. If I had to guess right now, I'd say Toronto's All-Star is either George Springer or Brendon Little. But I don't think it's crazy to make a case for Clement, considering he's been one of the best defenders in the league by multiple metrics.

Last Wednesday afternoon, I received an email from the Blue Jays’ marketing department asking me to vote for nine Blue Jays players to represent the team at this summer’s All-Star Game in Atlanta. You probably got the same one. What struck me about the email (besides the airplane theme; why is All-Star voting airplane themed?) was the most obvious omission from the graphic: Ernie Clement. I understand why Clement isn’t on the All-Star ballot. All-Star voting is broken down by position, and Clement doesn’t really have one. He started the year as Toronto's third baseman, but Addison Barger has taken over the hot corner. He also played a lot of second base while Andrés Giménez was injured, but now that the three-time Gold Glover is back, the keystone is covered. Clement can play shortstop and first base too, but needless to say, he isn’t usurping Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anytime soon. Thus, he is stuck in utilityman purgatory. As multi-positional players have become more prominent around the league, they’ve earned their own Gold Glove and Silver Slugger categories. The AL All-Star team, however, is an actual team that has to play an actual game. So, there’s no room for a utility category when it comes to All-Star voting. That’s too bad, because Clement is arguably the most deserving All-Star Toronto has. He has played in more games this year than every Blue Jay save for Vladdy and Bo. And he's been good! When that email hit my phone on Wednesday, Clement led the team in both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference versions of WAR. Alejandro Kirk has since overtaken him on the FanGraphs leaderboard, but the point stands that Clement has been one of Toronto’s most valuable players so far in 2025. Clement is batting .275 on the season, thanks in large part to his 12.1% strikeout rate, the sixth-lowest among qualified AL hitters. He doesn’t offer much power, but his 12 doubles and three home runs have helped him keep his wRC+ right around league average. That said, his adequate offense really only matters insofar as it allows John Schneider to keep his glove on the field. You see, if there’s any case to be made that Clement is an All-Star, it’s because he’s been one of this year’s best defenders – not just on the Jays, but across Major League Baseball. Clement was a Gold Glove finalist at third base last season, alongside veteran stars Alex Bregman and José Ramírez. It was all the more impressive considering he played less than half a season’s worth of innings (661) at the position. So far in 2025, Clement’s defense has looked even better. Splitting his time between second and third base, with a handful of games at shortstop and first base for good measure, he has compiled 10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a +9 Fielding Run Value (FRV). The crux of his All-Star case, if he has one, is that he ranks third among all players in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, in between Bobby Witt Jr. and Pete Crow-Amstrong. It’s important to take defensive metrics with a grain of salt, especially this early in the season. A metric like OAA can be heavily influenced by a small sample of plays, and the chances of Clement maintaining his current pace and finishing the season with 27 OAA are slim to none. Regardless, no one can rack up 11 OAA in 62 games without playing some damn fine defense. Whether his performance is sustainable or not, I’m confident in saying Clement has been one of the best defenders in the league this year. His tremendous performance might not be rewarded with an All-Star selection (or even a spot on the ballot), but nonetheless, he deserves recognition for everything he’s done for the Blue Jays thus far. So, inspired by Mike LeSage’s recent piece about Daulton Varsho’s defensive wizardry, I decided to compile some of Clement’s best plays from 2025. Good defense isn’t always flashy; more often than not, the best defenders are the ones who make tough plays look easy. Still, Clement has made his fair share of highlight-reel stops, catches, and throws, and you can watch several of my favorites down below. First Base Versatility is one of Clement’s primary assets, and indeed, he has earned at least one OAA at all four infield positions. To reflect that, I decided to group his highlights by position. First base, as you might expect, offers the least exciting clips, but just remember that this compilation of solid glovework is merely an amuse-bouche for the true web gems to follow: Second Base Clement has played half as many games and about 100 fewer innings at second base than third base this year, but he’s racked up more defensive value at the keystone (5 DRS, 5 OAA) than any other spot. This first play might not look particularly difficult – Clement snaps it out of the air like he’s playing catch with a kid – but the ball came off the bat at 108.6 mph. With an .800 expected batting average (based on launch angle and exit velocity), this batted ball was the most unlikely out Clement has recorded all year: This next one is more classic highlight reel material. On a low liner up the middle with a .570 xBA off the bat, Clement lays out and makes a nice diving catch. Even more exciting than the play itself was the context. If this one had gotten past Clement, the tying run might have come around to score. Instead, the Blue Jays closed out a hard-fought win, their fourth in a row, to secure a series victory: Here’s a great example of the kind of play that looks easy for Clement, when a second baseman with worse instincts easily could have let it slip through into right field for a base hit. The ball shot off the bat at 105.3 mph, giving Clement limited time to run over and grab it before resetting himself and turning to make the throw: Meanwhile, this one might have been a routine play if it weren’t for the high stakes of the situation. The Blue Jays’ infield was playing in with a quick runner on third in a close game. Clement fields a weak tapper to second base with precision and gets the ball home just in time for Kirk to apply the tag: Here’s Clement getting the tag down to catch Cal Raleigh stealing second base after an uncharacteristically poor throw from Kirk. Clement has to jump way out in front of the bag to get to the ball, but he still manages to record the out – and finishes with a fun little 360 spin on his bum. Is this baseball or breakdancing? Last but certainly not least is a pair of terrific barehanded plays. The first requires Clement to run from the edge of the grass in right-center field to the opposite side of second base, where he scoops the ball up and makes an accurate side-armed throw to record the out: The other is perhaps an easier play but arguably more exciting, considering the runner in question. Chandler Simpson is one of the fastest players in professional baseball, and no one is better suited to convert a slow bouncer into an infield hit. Yet, Clement reads this one perfectly. He knows he has to barehand the ball if he wants any chance of catching Simpson. He doesn’t hesitate at all, and he gets the ball into Vladdy’s glove just in time to win the race: Shortstop It feels a little anticlimactic going from second base, where Clement has made so many strong plays, to shortstop, where Clement has only made two starts and played a total of 27 innings. Thankfully, the one highlight I have to show you from shortstop is a doozy. With yet another move that could be right out of Olympic breakdancing, Clement slides down on his knees, picks the ball out of the air, and continuing in one fluid motion, he stands up, spins around, and fires an underhand throw to second base to start a double play. I won’t tell you what Braydon Fisher appears to be saying after the play (this is a family-friendly website), but it’s the perfect reaction to glovework like this: Third Base Finally, let’s end off at third base, the position Clement has played more than any other in his big league tenure. In the first highlight I’ve chosen, which MLB Film Room describes as “nifty,” Clement steps back to field a groundball down the line. His arm is his weakest defensive tool, but you wouldn’t know it from this clip. Clement gets the ball to first base in plenty of time: On this one, Clement reaches the ball quickly, preventing it from slipping through the hole into left field. Bichette’s limited range at shortstop isn’t as much of a problem when you have a defender like Clement to pick up the slack: This diving stop from over the weekend speaks for itself. Once again, Clement ranges over to his right to steal a base hit: As for this next play, it probably shouldn’t have been Clement’s responsibility at all – he catches it in between second base and the pitcher’s mound – but everyone else lost the ball in the sun. Clement saw it coming down just in time to bolt for it and make a rare infield diving catch: As terrific as it is, the penultimate play I have for you doesn’t actually make for a great highlight. Jhonkensy Noel hit this ball so hard (115 mph) that Clement has already caught it by the time he appears on screen. Still, it’s clear from how he’s positioned when we first catch a glimpse of him (with the ball already in his glove) that he had to do some Gold Glove-caliber work to get there. This kind of play is a picture-perfect example of why they call it the hot corner: Finally, before I call it a day, I’ll leave you with my all-time favorite Ernie Clement highlight. This was from last September, but it’s simply too stunning not to include in a piece about Clement’s best defensive work. This could very well be the play that made him a Gold Glove finalist at third base in 2024: Holy smoke. I'm not sure what to say, other than: Ernie, if you’re reading this, I challenge you to top that. I don't know how you'd do it, but I want to see you try. The Blue Jays haven't been the most consistent team in 2025, but if there's one thing you can count on when it comes to this club, it's Ernie Clement's glove. Day in and day out, no matter where he's stationed, he's been one of the best defenders in the game. Stats and rankings updated prior to games on Sunday, June 8. View full article