Leo Morgenstern

On September 1, MLB active rosters expand from 26 to 28. That means the Toronto Blue Jays now have two additional roster spots to work with. At least for now, one of those spots is going to right-handed reliever Dillon Tate, while the other belongs to recently acquired utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa. To make room for Tate on their 40-man roster, the Blue Jays moved fellow righty reliever Nick Sandlin from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Kiner-Falefa was added to he 40-man on Sunday. Tate, 31, first joined the Blue Jays one year ago today, when they claimed him off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. He owns a career 4.11 ERA and 4.05 FIP in 221 innings from 2019-25. In 8.2 innings with Toronto, he has given up five earned runs on 11 hits, striking out 11 but walking nine. On the bright side, the righty has looked much sharper in the minor leagues. In 56.2 MiLB innings over the past two years, he has pitched to a 2.06 ERA and a 3.57 FIP. Tate will offer low-leverage depth to a bullpen that has seen plenty of turnover lately; a six-man starting rotation has forced the Blue Jays to cycle through relievers at a faster-than-normal rate. Featured image courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images. View full rumor

After just over a year in Pittsburgh, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is coming back to Toronto. The Pirates placed the utility man on outright waivers on Friday, hoping to get his remaining salary off their books. The Blue Jays put in a claim. They opened a spot on their 40-man roster by transferring Yimi García (elbow surgery) to the 60-day IL, and they will be able to add Kiner-Falefa to the big league roster today when active rosters increase from 26 to 28. The Blue Jays signed Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15 million deal during the 2023-24 offseason, and he took the field at third base on Opening Day 2024. Over the next three months, he produced some of the best numbers of his career, slashing .292/.338/.420 (117 wRC+) in 83 games, all while showing off his excellent defense at second base, third base, and shortstop. Unfortunately, a left knee sprain interrupted Kiner-Falefa's strong season and forced him to the injured list in July. Despite that, the Jays were still able to sell high on their biggest offseason signing, flipping IKF and cash to the Pirates for third base prospect Charles McAdoo. On the day the Pirates traded for Kiner-Falefa, they were 55-52, putting them just two games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. As for the Blue Jays, a 51-58 record had them sitting last in the AL East and 8.5 games back of a postseason berth. In hindsight, the Blue Jays pulled off a steal. Kiner-Falefa saw his numbers come crashing down, while the Pirates plummeted in the NL standings. He finished with a .269/.306/.376 slash line (93 wRC+), and the Pirates finished 76-88 – only two games better than the Blue Jays. This year, the Pirates are basement-dwellers once again, while the Blue Jays have climbed back atop the AL East. McAdoo, Jays Centre's No. 17 prospect, is enjoying a promising year with Double-A New Hampshire. Finally, as a cherry on top, the Jays have taken Kiner-Falefa back from the Pirates, and all it will cost them is what's left of his salary – a salary they were more than willing to pay when they signed him in the first place, and of which they were already paying a small portion anyway, as part of the terms of their initial trade with Pittsburgh. Kiner-Falefa is unlikely to hit the way he did during his first stint in Toronto; he's currently slashing .264/.300/.332 with a 75 wRC+. But, of course, it's not as if the Blue Jays were ever interested in him for his bat. In the three seasons before he signed with the Jays (2021-23), he hit .261/.311/.343 with an 83 wRC+. Only one hitter had more plate appearances and a lower wRC+ in that span, and, funnily enough, he's a Blue Jay now as well: Myles Straw. Kiner-Falefa, like Straw, is a Gold Glove-winning defender, and excellent defense is precisely what the Blue Jays want to see from him in September and October. Anything he can offer at the plate is just a bonus. He is a better defensive option at second base than Davis Schneider and a better defensive option at third base than Addison Barger. In other words, he is a second Ernie Clement. If John Schneider wants to keep Andrés Giménez out of the lineup against a left-handed starter, he will still have two strong defensive players to position on either side of Bo Bichette. Kiner-Falefa can also play the outfield if necessary. He shouldn't have to do so very often, but – at risk of sounding like a broken record – he's a better defensive choice than George Springer. If Schneider wants to sit the lefties Barger, Daulton Varsho, and Nathan Lukes, he can run an all-righty outfield while keeping Springer at DH. For little more than the loose change left in their pockets, the Blue Jays made a stellar defense even stronger. Claiming Kiner-Falefa off waivers isn't the move that's going to make or break this club come October. Still, it was a nice pickup to make one of the most well-rounded teams in the AL even more complete. View full article

Yesterday, I published the first part of this two-part series, in which I tried to assemble the best possible lineup of former Blue Jays position players. Today, I’m moving on to pitchers. Here’s a reminder of the challenge, the criteria, and the position players I chose. The Challenge: Put together the best possible 26-man roster made up of former Blue Jays. Specifically, I was looking for the most talented group of players in 2025. That means I wasn’t concerned about contract status or future potential, and I only cared about injury status or current stats insofar as either might inform my opinion of a player’s true talent The Criteria: Each player must have played at least one MLB game for the Blue Jays, simple as that. I didn’t consider any players the Blue Jays traded before their MLB debuts, but everyone else was fair game. Starting Lineup Catcher: Gabriel Moreno First Base: Spencer Horwitz Second Base: Marcus Semien Shortstop: Otto Lopez Third Base: Matt Chapman Right Field: Teoscar Hernández Center Field: Isiah Kiner-Falefa Left Field: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Designated Hitter: Rob Refsnyder/Rowdy Tellez Bench Catcher: Danny Jansen Infield: Santiago Espinal Outfield: Randal Grichuk Now that you’re all caught up, let’s move on to the pitching staff. Starting Rotation Matthew Boyd (2 games with TOR in 2015) Robbie Ray (32 games with TOR in 2021) Yusei Kikuchi (86 games with TOR from 2022-24) Taijuan Walker (6 games with TOR in 2020) Steven Matz (29 games with TOR in 2021) This might just be a postseason-caliber starting five, depending on how much you believe in Matz and Walker – and how much you’d trust such a lefty-heavy rotation. Ten years after the Blue Jays dealt him away in the David Price trade deadline blockbuster, Boyd is enjoying a Cy Young-caliber campaign for the Cubs. Meanwhile, Ray finally looks like his old self again after a couple of injury-marred seasons. In case you need reminding, that’s the old self who won the 2021 AL Cy Young with Toronto. Kikuchi joined Ray and Boyd at the All-Star Game this summer. In his first year with the Angels, he has continued to demonstrate why he was in such high demand at last year’s trade deadline and again in the offseason. This rotation drops off quite a bit after the top three (as many rotations do), but Walker has done an impressive job of shaking off his dreadful 2024 season. He has provided the Phillies with some much-needed innings as a swingman in 2025, with a mid-3.00s ERA as both a starter and a reliever. Matz has moved into a full-time bullpen role this year, but he was a starter for much of his career. He’s been so successful out of the ‘pen for the Cardinals and Red Sox that I’m confident he’s a better choice to round out this rotation than anyone else I could have picked. Just for fun, here’s how the combination of Boyd/Ray/Kikuchi/Walker/Matz compares to Gausman/Berríos/Bassitt/Scherzer/Lauer/Bieber in 2025. (Stats updated prior to play on August 26.) Pitchers IP K-BB% ERA FIP SIERA fWAR Former Jays 619.2 14.4% 3.06 3.81 4.08 9.7 Current Jays 610.1 16.0% 3.77 4.07 3.96 8.5 I’d also like to give a quick honorable mention to Hyun Jin Ryu (60 games with TOR from 2020-23). At 38 years old, he’s still pitching well for the Hanwha Eagles in the KBO. If I hadn’t decided to convert Matz back into a starting pitcher, I was considering giving Ryu a call to join this team. Bullpen Jason Adam (23 games with TOR in 2019) Brock Stewart (10 games with TOR in 2019) Mark Leiter Jr. (8 games with TOR in 2018) Bryan Baker (1 game with TOR in 2021) Anthony Banda (7 games with TOR in 2022) Jordan Hicks (25 games with TOR in 2023) Ryan Yarbrough (12 games with TOR in 2024) Matt Gage (11 games with TOR in 2022) While there’s no proven closer among this group, Adam is the obvious choice to take on the role. The right-hander the Blue Jays non-tendered after the 2019 season has been one of the best relievers in the sport across the past four years. Stewart and Leiter give this ‘pen another couple of options for late in games, while Baker and Banda are fine choices to cover the middle innings. Yarbrough gives this group a veteran swingman. Hicks has struggled moving back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen over the last two years, but the Jays saw how dominant he and his triple-digit fastball could be as a full-time reliever down the stretch in 2023. Finally, the inexperienced Gage is a bit of a wild card choice for the final bullpen spot, but he’s only given up two runs in 22 innings of work this year. He was also excellent at Triple A. Perhaps this pick will come back to haunt me, but I say, without any great options, why not make the most fun choice? Here’s how these eight pitchers have performed over the past four seasons. In nothing else, their consistency is impressive. (Stats updated prior to play on August 26.) Season IP K-BB% ERA FIP SIERA fWAR 2025 395.2 15.6% 3.64 3.83 3.67 3.9 2024 428.2 14.8% 3.55 3.92 3.79 3.7 2023 360.1 17.5% 3.47 3.79 3.68 4.2 2022 381.2 15.3% 3.84 3.85 3.61 3.3 For context, here’s how the actual Blue Jays’ bullpen has performed in all of those same categories since 2022: Season IP K-BB% ERA FIP SIERA fWAR 2025 481.2 15.4% 4.00 3.99 3.65 2.9 2024 565.2 11.3% 4.82 4.84 4.14 -2.1 2023 557.0 17.6% 3.68 3.91 3.65 5.0 2022 613.2 15.4% 3.77 4.03 3.55 2.3 It’s not entirely fair to compare the collective stats of the best eight relievers I could find to the collective stats of an actual bullpen. It takes a lot more than just eight arms for a big league bullpen to get through a season. However, while depth might be a problem for the All Former Jays, the stats suggest that a bullpen comprising Adam, Stewart, Leiter, Banda, Baker, Yarbrough, Hicks, and Gage would be a pretty solid unit. It might even be stronger than the bullpen Toronto currently has. ***** Now that I’ve laid out the full 26-man roster, what do you think of my All Former Jays team? How do you think this team would fare in the 2025 season? Share your thoughts with me and the rest of the Jays Centre community in the comments below! View full article

Andrés Giménez is the best defensive second baseman in the American League. He has been for years. That's why the Blue Jays were willing to part with Spencer Horwitz to acquire him last offseason. It's why they were happy to take on the nearly $100 million remaining on his contract over the next five years. It's why FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he's been worth 1.2 WAR despite missing more than two months with injuries and producing some of the worst offensive numbers of his career. Yet, Giménez won't be taking home a fourth consecutive Gold Glove Award this year – and it's not because he won't deserve it. Although he's only played 75 games at the keystone this season, Giménez leads AL second basemen in OAA (Outs Above Average) and DRP (Deserved Runs Prevented). He ranks second in DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), FRV (Fielding Run Value), and fielding percentage (min. 400 innings). The only players who lead him in any of those metrics are Marcus Semien, who will most likely miss the rest of the season with a foot injury, and Mauricio Dubón, who has only played 40 games at second base. Giménez has plenty of time to usurp Semien atop the DRS and fielding percentage leaderboards. Meanwhile, Dubón is a strong candidate for the utility Gold Glove but unlikely to earn votes as a second baseman. All that to say, there is a strong statistical case for Giménez to take home yet another Gold Glove. Unfortunately, he won't even be eligible. To be eligible for a Gold Glove in either the infield or the outfield, a player must have taken the field for at least 698 innings (at any position) through his team’s 138th game. Rawlings claims this is to ensure that "only full-time players are considered" for the honor. However, the real effect is privileging players who might miss time later in the season over those who miss time earlier on. As I sit and write this piece on Wednesday afternoon, the Blue Jays have played 133 games. Presuming Giménez starts and finishes each of Toronto's next five contests (and presuming no extra-inning affairs), he will have played 669.1 innings through his team's 138th game. That's 28.2 fewer innings than he needs to be Gold Glove eligible. That's just over three games. That's it. I understand wanting to prioritize full-time players who play full seasons. But a strict cutoff point like this one leaves no room for nuance. Giménez has played more innings than all but six AL second basemen in 2025. Five of them – Jackson Holliday, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Lowe, Luis Urías, and Lenyn Sosa – have negative defensive metrics across the board. That leaves only a few real contenders for the Gold Glove at second base. Semien currently looks like the favorite, though Jazz Chisholm Jr. is another name to keep in mind. He doesn't have the necessary 698 innings at second, but he's played enough third base to cross that threshold. Luis Rengifo is another player with strong defensive metrics at second base and enough innings combined between second and third. Yet, because he has played third base slightly more often this season, he will most likely be eligible to receive votes at the hot corner, not the keystone. So, I'm not even sure I could identify three eligible, deserving candidates to be the finalists this year. Semien and Chisholm make two, but after them, the next-best name I can come up with is Daniel Schneemann of the Guardians, who is really more of a utility player. He's played more often at second base than anywhere else this year, but he's also spent time at third base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions. More to the point, he hasn't started a game at second in almost four weeks. It would be one thing if there were several full-time second basemen with solid defensive numbers to consider. This season, however, Giménez is likely to finish with more innings at second than any serious Gold Glove contender except for Semien. Giménez will almost surely have the most impressive metrics of anyone to play the position. There's no question he'll pass the eye test with flying colors. None of that will be enough. Maybe Semien would win even if Giménez were eligible. Or maybe the award is Chisholm's to lose; the flexibility he's shown moving back and forth between second and third base is no doubt impressive. Yet, I can't help but think that Giménez would soon be adding a fourth Gold Glove to his mantle if he had only returned from each of his IL stints a couple of days earlier. Now, we'll never know. Stats updated prior to games on August 27. View full article

I recently got to wondering if I could make up an entire big league roster with active major leaguers who used to play for the Toronto Blue Jays. Well, really, I was confident I could find enough players to fill out a roster. My real question was if that roster would be any good. Now, it’s time to find out. The Challenge: Put together the best possible 26-man roster made up of former Blue Jays. Specifically, I was looking for the most talented group of players in 2025. That means I wasn’t concerned about contract status or future potential, and I only cared about injury status or current stats insofar as either might inform my opinion of a player’s true talent The Criteria: Each player must have played at least one MLB game for the Blue Jays, simple as that. I didn’t consider any players the Blue Jays traded before their MLB debuts, but everyone else was fair game. This is part one in a two-part series. Come back later this week to check out the pitching staff on my All Former Jays teams, but first, let’s take a look at the position players. Starting Lineup Catcher: Gabriel Moreno (25 games with TOR in 2022) This one was easy. Injuries have limited his playing time and prevented Moreno from blossoming into the All-Star catcher he has the skills to become, but he’s proven himself to be a terrific defender and at least a slightly-above-average bat. First Base: Spencer Horwitz (112 games with TOR from 2023-24) Horwitz hasn’t been as productive in his first season with the Pirates as he was in his breakout campaign for the Blue Jays last year, but he’s been hitting better lately. While a slow start is still skewing his overall numbers, we know he has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order bat. Second Base: Marcus Semien (162 games with TOR in 2021) Semien might be slowing down in his mid-thirties, but he’s still a strong defender. What’s more, it wasn’t so long ago that he was one of the best second basemen in the game. At his peak – which included one phenomenal year for the Blue Jays in 2021 – he was better than anyone else on this roster. Shortstop: Otto Lopez (9 games with TOR from 2021-22) Lopez established himself as a premier defender at second base last year, compiling 9 DRS and 16 OAA in 103 games at the keystone, en route to a 2.5-fWAR season. He moved over to shortstop earlier this season, where he has continued to thrive. His bat has been below average so far, but he’s making more contact (and better contact) than he did last year. Even if his bat never improves, his glove is enough to make him a valuable everyday player. The Blue Jays have to be regretting designating Lopez for assignment in 2024. Third Base: Matt Chapman (295 games with TOR from 2022-23) Here’s another choice that shouldn’t come as any surprise. Chapman is a defensive stud and a middle-of-the-order bat enjoying another strong season. I’m not sure what else there is to say. Right Field: Teoscar Hernández (609 games with TOR from 2017-22) Hernández played more games for the Blue Jays than anyone else on this roster, and it’s not particularly close. He has cooled down after a hot start earlier this year, but he’s still an impact power bat. At his best, Hernández is a game-changing slugger, hence the two Silver Slugger Awards he won with the Blue Jays and the third he added to his collection with the Dodgers last year. Center Field: Isiah Kiner-Falefa (83 games with TOR in 2024) There’s no perfect choice for center field, so I’m thinking outside the box here. Kiner-Falefa has only played a little bit of center field (including one inning with the Blue Jays in 2024), but he’s a talented and extremely versatile defender. The only other center field option I could think of was begging Kevin Kiermaier to come out of retirement, so I’m going to give IKF a shot. Left Field: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (468 games with TOR from 2018-22) Gurriel isn’t a star, but he’s been a solid role player for years, first with the Blue Jays to begin his career and more recently with the Diamondbacks. He does a little bit of everything without standing out in any one particular area. Designated Hitter: Rob Refsnyder (32 games with TOR in 2017) & Rowdy Tellez (219 games with TOR from 2018-21) Since he joined the Red Sox in 2022, Refsnyder has been one of the more underappreciated right-handed bench bats in the league. The lefty masher has an .801 OPS and a 123 wRC+ with 3.6 fWAR in 293 games. As for Tellez, well, I needed a left-handed platoon partner for Refsnyder, and my options were limited. At least Tellez has roughly average career numbers against right-handed pitching, and he brings some pop to this lineup. Bench Danny Jansen (472 games with TOR from 2018-23) Santiago Espinal (347 games with TOR from 2020-23) Randal Grichuk (479 games with TOR from 2018-21) Jansen is an overqualified backup, and the Moreno/Jansen tandem means catching is a genuine strength for this team. After Jansen, however, this bench is thin. With IKF already pencilled in to play center field, options for a utility infielder were slim pickings. At least Espinal offers value with his versatility, even if he’s been a replacement-level player since his All-Star first half in 2022. Grichuk fills a similar niche to Refsnyder as a lefty-mashing corner outfielder, but he also brings significant experience playing center field. Considering how good Grichuk’s bat was just last year, I couldn’t justify leaving him off the roster. ***** Altogether, this group of position players hasn’t hit very well in 2025, with a collective .702 OPS and 95 wRC+. Yet, they were substantially better just last year, posting a .744 OPS and 108 wRC+. For context, an offense with a .702 OPS and 95 wRC+ would rank among the bottom third of teams this year. An offense with a .744 OPS and 108 wRC+ would rank among the top 10. It’s also worth noting that this group has a surprisingly low .276 BABIP in 2025. That’s well below league average this year, and it’s well below their collective average in each of the five seasons prior. Moreover, this group of hitters is currently underperforming their collective xwOBA by 17 points. An unusually low BABIP and a wide xwOBA-wOBA gulf are two strong indicators of positive regression to come. So, I’m reasonably confident that these 13 hitters would make for an above-average offense – perhaps even a playoff-caliber offense. That said, they’d still be a downgrade from Toronto’s current lineup. The Blue Jays enter play on August 26 with a .764 OPS and 113 wRC+, both of which rank third in MLB. On the other side of the ball, the All Former Jays have a strong defense on the dirt, with the likes of Chapman, Moreno, Lopez, and Semien leading the way. However, an outfield made up of Kiner-Falefa, Hernández, Gurriel, and Grichuk wouldn’t hold a candle to the group the Jays currently have patrolling the grass, led by Daulton Varsho and Myles Straw. ***** So, what do you think of the 13 position players I chose? Is there anything you would have done differently? Please let me know in the comments, and don’t forget to check back later this week to see the pitching staff I’ve put together. View full article

Ryan Borucki is back. Following parts of five seasons with the Blue Jays from 2018-22, the left-hander briefly suited up for the Mariners and Cubs before settling in with the Pirates in 2023. However, after spending much of the last three seasons with Pittsburgh, Borucki was released last week. It didn't take long for his former team to scoop him up, and he will be active today for the Buffalo Bisons. Borucki has appeared in each of the last eight MLB seasons, tossing 252 career innings with a 4.36 ERA and 4.35 FIP. He is neither a dominating strikeout arm nor a control artist, but he's always been able to induce weak contact on the ground, especially from same-handed opponents. While the southpaw will report to Buffalo for now, it wouldn't be surprising to see him join the Blue Jays' bullpen, at least briefly, at some point soon. The Jays will be one man down in the arm barn for as long as they stick with a six-man rotation. That means fans can expect plenty of roster churn to ensure the bullpen always has a fresh arm. In the past few days, Toronto has already optioned Braydon Fisher and Mason Fluharty, recalled and subsequently optioned Paxton Schultz, and recalled Justin Bruihl. Featured image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images. View full rumor

The beauty of Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, lies in the metric's simplicity. It's one number that aims to sum up all of a player's quantifiable contributions on the baseball field. You can use WAR to compare sluggers to speedsters to defensive wizards. You can use it to compare hitters and pitchers. You can use it to compare players across every era of Major League Baseball, from the pre-modern period of the nineteenth century to the present day. WAR isn't perfect. It's inherently subjective and imprecise, but when understood and applied correctly, it is an incredibly useful tool in the baseball fan's statistical toolbox. Yet, while WAR might be simple to use, it's definitely not simple to calculate. What's more, different sources have varying opinions about the best way to make those calculations. That means you can find a stat called WAR on multiple websites, but unlike batting average or ERA, a player's WAR won't be the same number everywhere you look. To make things all the more confusing, far too many newspapers, blogs, TV broadcasts, and social media accounts fail to specify which version they're using when they cite WAR. You might be watching a game and hear the commentator say a certain player has 3.5 WAR this season, and the next morning, when you're reading about the same player in the paper, you'll see that number has all of a sudden dropped down to 2.4. I couldn't blame anyone who has had that experience for thinking the whole concept is arbitrary and useless. The complexity of calculating WAR, the numerous ways in which it's calculated, and a lack of clarity about those various calculations can be enough to put plenty of fans off the metric entirely. That's a shame, because the whole purpose of WAR is to make the fan experience simpler and easier. So, I thought it might be helpful to write about some of the Blue Jays players with the widest gaps between their FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) and Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR). Let me be clear, however, that I'm not here to say which version is better. I'll lay out the differences as they pertain to these three players, and you can decide for yourself which of fWAR or bWAR is the metric you prefer to use. Alejandro Kirk fWAR: 3.8 (Second among catchers) bWAR: 2.1 (12th among catchers) Kirk is the player who initially inspired this article. FanGraphs will tell you he’s been one of the best catchers in the sport and one of the best players on the Blue Jays. Baseball Reference paints a much more mediocre picture. What’s the explanation? When it comes to catchers, the biggest difference between the versions of WAR from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference is that fWAR incorporates pitch framing and bWAR does not. Pitch framing is the ability to convert borderline pitches into called strikes, and some catchers are much better at doing this than others. Kirk is one of them. FanGraphs gives him a lot of credit for that – 8.6 runs of credit, to be exact. This is the number one reason why his fWAR is so much higher than his bWAR. Framing aside, the defensive metrics that FanGraphs uses to calculate WAR are higher on Kirk’s glovework than the metrics that Baseball Reference uses. In particular, fWAR values his blocking and stolen base prevention skills more highly than bWAR. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference also calculate positional adjustments differently. In simplest terms, positional adjustments account for the fact that some defensive positions are harder to play than others. FanGraphs values a full season (1,458 innings) of play behind the plate at an additional 12.5 runs, while Baseball Reference would only credit a catcher with 9.7 additional runs worth of value for the same number of defensive innings. Finally, on the offensive side of the ball, Kirk’s bWAR suffers from his propensity to ground into double plays, while fWAR no longer penalizes players for GIDP. Eric Lauer fWAR: 1.5 (Fourth among Blue Jays pitchers) bWAR: 2.7 (First among Blue Jays pitchers) FanGraphs WAR will tell you Lauer has had a really solid year for the Blue Jays. Baseball Reference WAR will tell you he’d be a dark horse Cy Young contender if he could pitch at this pace over a full season. In other words, there’s a good chance that fWAR more accurately describes what you think about Lauer’s true talent, but his bWAR better reflects the success we’ve watched him enjoy. That’s because fWAR is based on the metric FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching. So, fWAR doesn’t care how many runs a pitcher gives up. Instead, it’s concerned with the elements of the game that a pitcher can more directly control: strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs, as well as the number of innings he pitches. In all of those areas, Lauer has been more good than great, hence his good-not-great fWAR. In contrast, bWAR is based on a pitcher’s RA/9, a.k.a. runs allowed per nine innings. The idea is to compare the actual number of runs the pitcher in question has allowed to how many runs a theoretical "average pitcher" would have given up in the same situations. Lauer’s RA/9 is three-quarters of a run lower than his FIP, and it ranks him among the top 10 AL pitchers (min. 80 IP). It would be almost impossible to imagine an "average pitcher" allowing fewer runs to cross the plate. Lauer’s WAR gap is the more extreme example, but a wide difference between FIP and RA/9 also explains why a pitcher like Yariel Rodríguez has 1.0 bWAR and only 0.1 fWAR. Myles Straw fWAR: 1.6 bWAR: 2.3 The batting and baserunning components of both fWAR and bWAR largely agree that Straw has been a slightly below-average offensive player; his bat is a weakness, but when he manages to reach base, he compensates with terrific speed. The fielding components of both fWAR and bWAR also agree that Straw is a fabulous outfield defender. However, evaluating the extent of his greatness is where they differ. DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) is the fielding component of bWAR. According to this metric, Straw has been the best outfielder in baseball this year, at least on a per-inning basis (min. 400). He has racked up 14 DRS in 592.1 innings, mostly in center field. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the majors with 20 DRS, but he’s played almost twice as many innings as Straw. FRV (Statcast’s Fielding Run Value) also loves Straw’s glove, but not quite as much as DRS, and it’s FRV that feeds into fWAR. Straw’s 8 FRV is still elite, especially considering he’s only played about half a season, but the six-run difference between his DRS and FRV is the primary explanation as to why his bWAR is about three-quarters of a run higher than his fWAR. View full article

The Blue Jays and Marlins have just kicked off a three-game set in Miami. The big story of the day is Shane Bieber returning from the injured list to make his Blue Jays debut, but it's also worth talking about one player who won't be taking the field for Toronto. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out of the lineup for a third straight game after leaving early on Monday with tightness in his left hamstring. Needless to say, it's concerning that Guerrero has missed so much time, especially since the Jays initially suggested his exit on Monday was only precautionary. Thankfully, however, manager John Schneider provided a positive update on his star player this afternoon, even though he didn't write his name on the lineup card. Speaking to Sportnet's Jeff Blair and Kevin Barker, the skipper made clear that Guerrero's injury is "not IL worthy" and noted that the first baseman has been feeling better "every single day." Sportnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith suggests Guerrero could even be available off the bench tonight. If not, a return later this weekend certainly seems to be in play. So, what do Jays fans think of all this? Are you still concerned about Guerrero's status, despite Schneider's comments? Join the discussion in the comments or tonight's game thread! Featured image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images. View full rumor

Technically, Shane Bieber became a Toronto Blue Jay three weeks ago. Today, however, is when he really joins the team. For the first time in his major league career, he'll don a uniform and step on a mound for a team other than the Cleveland Guardians. As the Blue Jays begin a three-game set with the Miami Marlins, Bieber will begin his Blue Jays tenure. He will look to prove that he's the same ace-caliber pitcher he was before a torn UCL stole most of his 2024 and '25 campaigns. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will look to ride that ace-caliber pitcher to an AL East title, a first-round bye, and who knows, maybe even a World Series title. But I'm getting ahead of myself. What matters right now, for both Bieber and the Blue Jays, is today. The Blue Jays are still sitting pretty with a 4.5-game lead over the New York Yankees in the AL East and a four-game lead over the Houston Astros for a first-round bye in the playoffs. However, they're coming off a series loss to the 54-74 Pittsburgh Pirates, so they could really use a win. Bieber, too, could really use a victory. He won his final rehab outing with seven shutout innings against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, but he hasn't won a major league game since April 2024. Everything he's done in the minors over the past five weeks suggests he's back to full strength (26.2 IP, 2.02 ERA, 32 K, 3 BB), but neither he nor the Jays really know what to expect until he's shown what he can do against the highest level of competition. There's no perfect way to simulate facing MLB hitters in MLB games. We've written plenty about Bieber here at Jays Centre since the trade deadline. We've written about who he is and what he can bring to the Jays. We've written about how he fits in with his new club. Yet, all of that was speculative. Now, we finally get to see what Bieber has to offer the Blue Jays. Then, over the next five weeks, we'll get to watch as John Schneider determines how to best align his rotation. Eventually, we'll learn what kind of rotation this team can put together for a postseason series. We'll have a much better sense of just how competitive the Blue Jays can be. And it all starts tonight. View full article

Alek Manoah and Ryan Yarbrough were technically teammates last year, although Yarbrough’s arrival in Toronto came a couple of months after Manoah’s season-ending Tommy John procedure. Today, the two will face off in Buffalo, with Manoah pitching for the Bisons and Yarbrough toeing the rubber for the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. Yarbrough has been out since June with a strained oblique. Manoah is looking to redeem himself after a disastrous outing last week. He failed to escape the second inning, as he gave up three earned runs on three walks, two hits, and a hit-by-pitch. He only struck out one of the 11 Triple-A batters he faced. All the more concerning? That wasn’t even the worst of his four rehab outings so far. Across a total of seven innings against four different levels of minor league competition, he’s given up 10 runs (nine earned) on 11 hits and 11 free passes (eight walks and three HBP). On the bright side, he has yet to give up a home run, but that’s a pretty thin silver lining for a pitcher who has only struck out six of 43 batters – batters who are supposed to be a lesser level of competition. Some will tell you that stats from rehab assignments, much like stats from spring training, are best left ignored. As hard as that may be to actually do, it's pretty good advice. It’s wiser to focus on scouting reports and comments from those within the organization. Unfortunately for Manoah, neither scouting reports nor organizational comments paint any prettier of a picture. Blue Jays manager John Schneider didn’t offer much optimism after the righty’s last outing. He wasn’t overtly critical, but it wasn’t hard to read between the lines. “You want to see kind of the desired result,” Schneider told Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. “And with him, he’s always been a little scattered...But you always want to see more strikes.” The manager added, “I think when you’re so focused on the health, you can probably lose sight of your delivery and mechanics.” Meanwhile, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs offered some worrisome observations. I highly encourage you to read his thoughts in full, especially because the article I linked also includes some much more encouraging scouting notes about Shane Bieber. The gist of Longenhagen's report, however, is this: “[Manoah] doesn’t appear to be in position to contribute to the big league rotation as he and it are currently constituted.” Hopefully, Manoah will start to change the narrative with a much stronger performance this afternoon. But whether he’s successful or not, the Blue Jays will soon have some difficult questions to answer. Most rehab assignments last a maximum of 30 days. Manoah passed that point last week. As a Tommy John recoveree, he has some additional leeway. The Blue Jays can extend his rehab assignment in 10-day increments up to a maximum of 60 days. Still, by September 12 at the latest, the Jays will have to choose whether to (a) reinstate him on the active roster, (b) option him to the minors, or (c) return him to the injured list. With the way he’s pitching right now, option B seems the most likely of the three, though I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he’s pitching through pain and requires another IL stint. That said, if Manoah turns things around over the next few weeks, it’s more than possible he makes his way back to the majors in September, when the Jays can roster an extra pitcher. In terms of healthy right-handed depth on the 40-man, Toronto’s options currently include Paxton Schultz, Lazaro Estrada, and Robinson Piña. If Manoah can even start to resemble his old self, he’s certainly a higher-upside multi-inning option than any of those three. Indeed, his biggest competition for a call-up could end up being top pitching prospect Trey Yesavage, and Manoah (once reinstated) would have the advantage of already being on the 40-man roster. For now, though, all Manoah and the Blue Jays need to worry about is his next rehab start. If it goes well, he’ll make another. If it goes poorly, they will have to reassess. A couple of months ago, I wrote a piece about Alek Manoah and fellow injured starter Bowden Francis, wondering which would play a bigger role for the Blue Jays down the stretch. Now, however, with the Blue Jays thriving and their rotation full, the real question seems to be: Will Manoah pitch for the Blue Jays at all in 2025? View full article

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited early on Monday after injuring his left hamstring on a play at first base. He went for testing last night (per MLB.com's Keegan Matheson), but the Blue Jays are hopeful that both his exit and his MRI were only precautionary. You can watch the offending play below: Needless to say, losing Guerrero for any amount of time would be a massive blow for this team. Their offense has carried them to the top of the AL East, and Guerrero has been the most important piece of the puzzle. Hopefully, the Blue Jays will provide an update shortly. Even if it's good news, it wouldn't be surprising to see Guerrero sitting tonight against the Pirates. Featured image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images. View full rumor

Editor's Note: I wrote this article before Guerrero exited early on Monday with left hamstring tightness. Let's hope we don't have to find out just how important he is to this team by watching them play without him. Old friend Matthew Boyd was brilliant last Thursday afternoon. It’s been a decade since the Blue Jays dealt him to the Tigers in the David Price trade. He’s faced his fair share of ups and downs in that time, but the southpaw has finally blossomed into an ace in his mid-thirties. That was easy to see as he dominated his former team last week at the Rogers Centre. Boyd faced the minimum through six, with the only hit he allowed – a single to Tyler Heineman – erased on a double play two pitches later. He entered the seventh with a pitch count under 60 and a chance to pick up a much-needed win. The last time the Cubs won one of Boyd’s starts, they were still in first place in the NL Central. They had since fallen 7.5 games back. They would drop another half game back of the Brewers that afternoon. Boyd only slipped up once all game, in the seventh inning. Luckily for the Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was at the plate when he did. No one punishes slip-ups like Vladdy. Ahead 0-2, Boyd tried to make Guerrero chase a curveball in the dirt. It didn’t work. The Cubs’ ace missed his spot, and the Blue Jays’ three-hole hitter took advantage, crushing the ball to the seats in centre field. Boyd’s 77.2-mph curve was the slowest pitch (by a real pitcher, not a position player) that Guerrero has ever hit more than 400 feet. There’s no doubt the pitch was a mistake. Boyd admitted as much after the game. At the same time, it's not like it was a jumbo meatball. Right-handed hitters have a .216 wOBA and .052 ISO against curveballs over the lower outside corner of the plate this year. As for Boyd, he’s only given up 11 home runs on his curveball in his career. Before Guerrero’s home run, Boyd had thrown 323 curveballs (between the regular season and the playoffs) without letting one leave the yard. So yes, Boyd made a mistake. But it was the kind of mistake he could usually get away with. Not against Vlad. Guerrero’s home run scored Davis Schneider, who walked two batters earlier, and gave Toronto a 2-1 lead. The Jays would hold on to win the game by the same score. Their offense couldn’t muster much against Boyd and the Cubs, but that day, Guerrero was all they needed. When no one else could quite get it done, Guerrero stepped up. He's been doing that a lot lately. As I watched Guerrero round the bases to collect the home run jacket he’s worn more often than any other Blue Jays hitter, I thought to myself, “Wow, it’s nice to have a superstar.” Then I thought that would make for a pretty great title for an article. It’s not that Guerrero was ever slumping this year, at least not for a prolonged period of time. Yet, since the All-Star break, he’s turned the dial up to 11. The Blue Jays' superstar is reminding us why he deserves that label – and the $500 million mega-deal that came with it. In 29 games since the break, Guerrero is batting .368/.442/.702 with nine home runs and a 215 wRC+. He’s been the best hitter in baseball outside of Sacramento, and no one, not even the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz or Shea Langeliers, has a higher Win Probability Added (WPA). Mason Fluharty ranks second on the Blue Jays with a 0.83 WPA in the second half. Davis Schneider is second among position players at 0.61. Guerrero's WPA is 1.91. That's more than half of the entire team's total. Similarly, since the All-Star break, Guerrero has produced 17.4 weighted runs above average (wRAA) according to FanGraphs. The rest of Toronto's hitters have a combined 41.7 wRAA. Excluding the Rockies series, however, Guerrero still has a 13.6 wRAA, but the rest of the lineup has combined for just a 15.1 mark. Outside of that series, he's been almost as productive as all the rest of his teammates put together. The Blue Jays are good. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is really good. This team isn't leading the AL East because of any one player alone. George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Bo Bichette have played huge roles this year, as have less expected contributors like Addison Barger, Tyler Heineman, and Ernie Clement. The starting rotation is loaded with proven, reliable arms, while the bullpen has no shortage of stuff or talent. You might not have believed this four months ago, but the Toronto Blue Jays are one of the more complete clubs in the American League. Even so, one player on this team stands above the rest. As nice as it is to root for a team of underdogs, comeback kids, and breakout stories, and as nice as it is to root for a team where all the little guys do their part, it's just as nice to have a true superstar to rally around. If anyone needed a reminder that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the Blue Jays' very own superstar, he's offering one up on a silver platter right now. And this article is your reminder to enjoy it for as long as it lasts. Stats updated prior to games on Monday, August 18. View full article