Leo Morgenstern

The Blue Jays’ offense exploded for a 12-0 victory over the Athletics on Thursday. Everyone in the starting lineup reached base at least once. Altogether, the Jays went 18-for-41 (.439) with five walks, three doubles, and four home runs. They struck out just three times. It wasn’t Toronto’s most lopsided win of the season – that would be last week’s 14-0 drubbing of the Padres – but this was arguably a more impressive showing from the bats. They recorded more hits, more extra-base hits, more home runs, more walks, and fewer strikeouts in this one. The Blue Jays swung the bats harder than ever on Thursday (season-high 73.3 mph average bat speed), and it paid off in a big way. Even before last night, the Jays were hitting much better in May than they had in April. They came into Thursday’s contest with 28 home runs, a 109 wRC+, and an average of 4.2 runs per game since the calendar flipped to May. They left with 32 home runs, a 116 wRC+, and an average of 4.5 runs per game, all of which rank top-five in the AL. That’s a huge improvement from the first month of the season, when they ranked among the bottom five in all three categories. The Blue Jays have a solid pitching staff and one of the best defensive units in the league. Still, they need to score runs if they’re going to compete for a playoff spot. Throughout the first month of the season, more often than not, it seemed like that wasn’t going to happen. Now the question becomes: Which version of the Blue Jays offense are we going to see over the next four months? Was April or May more reflective of the lineup’s true talent? There’s no way to know for sure (that’s why they play the games!), but any and all additional data we can get our hands on will inform our expectations for this team going forward. So, I was excited when Statcast came out with several new metrics earlier this month that help us to assess and quantify swings better than ever before. These four new metrics are called swing path, attack angle, ideal attack angle rate, and attack direction. You can find them all on Baseball Savant, and you can read about them in Mike Petriello’s in-depth explainer on MLB.com. I also recommend reading these pieces by Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus and Davy Andrews of FanGraphs to learn more about all the new data at our disposal. I won't lie, it's complicated stuff, but the best way to learn how to use these numbers is to read about them and play around with them yourself. So, in an effort to further my own understanding, I decided to see what the new Statcast metrics had to say about the Blue Jays as a team. Here's what I found. The Blue Jays Have the Flattest Swings in MLB Swing path, also known as tilt, describes the angle of the bat’s path (in relation to the ground) during the final 40 milliseconds before contacting (or passing) the baseball. A swing that is perfectly parallel to the ground would have a 0-degree swing path, although you’re unlikely to see such a flat swing in a game. The flattest swing by any major league hitter so far this year was a one-degree hack by none other than Toronto’s Anthony Santander. On average, Blue Jays hitters have the flattest swings in the league, with a 30-degree average swing path. For context, the league median swing path is 32 degrees, while the team with the steepest swings, the Tigers, has an average tilt of 35 degrees. In other words, the range isn’t huge at the team level. Still, it’s interesting to see the Blue Jays at one extreme of the list. It’s critical to keep in mind that there isn’t such a thing as a “good” or “bad” swing path. It's not nearly that simple. As you might imagine, steeper swings are more closely correlated with whiffs, while flatter swings can lead to more contact and less power, but take that with a kosher-sized grain of salt. After all, the mighty (and strikeout-prone) Giancarlo Stanton had one of the flattest swings in the game last year, while contact king Luis Arraez had one of the steeper swings in the league. Still, the fact that the Blue Jays have flatter swings than any other team could help explain why they have the lowest strikeout rate in the AL and the lowest whiff rate in MLB. But might it also mean their recent power surge is more mirage than reality? Maybe. But like I said, it’s not really that simple. For instance, Toronto’s average swing path in May is just as flat as it was in April. Yet, this month in particular, the team average has been dragged down by a pair of hitters with two of the flattest swings in the game: Alejandro Kirk and Santander. Kirk has never been much of a power bat, while a slumping Santander has actually hit for less power in May than he did in April. Aggregate team numbers can only tell us so much. The Blue Jays Have the Lowest Average Attack Angle in the AL Attack angle describes the vertical angle at which the bat is travelling as it makes contact with (or passes by) the baseball. As MLB.com's Tom Tango explains, attack angle is “predominantly a function of timing” rather than swing path. In other words, it’s mostly about when during the swing the bat hits the ball, rather than the path the swing is taking. A late swing is more likely to have a negative attack angle, while an early swing is more likely to have a high attack angle. Once again, there isn’t really such a thing as a “good” or “bad” attack angle. However, as is the case with launch angle, most of the best contact comes in a sweet-spot range that’s neither too high nor too low. An attack angle too low will send the ball straight into the dirt, while an attack angle too high will pop it up. Statcast defines the “ideal” attack angle range as five to 20 degrees. Toronto’s eight-degree average attack angle is the lowest in the AL and the second-lowest in MLB. So is their ideal attack angle rate (the percentage of their swings that fall between five and 20 degrees) of 48.4%. The league averages are 10 degrees and 51.5%, respectively. This seems to suggest the Blue Jays have been late swingers this year. I'm not surprised by that, considering they have the lowest pull rate in the American League. What's more, opponents have attacked the Blue Jays with velocity all year. This team has seen four-seam fastballs or sinkers for 49.5% of pitches, compared to the 47.3% league average. On a related note, the average velocity of all pitches the Blue Jays have seen is 89.8 mph, the fastest average velocity in the AL. When it comes to individual players, the one who stands out the most (by far) is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. His average attack angle is the lowest among all qualified MLB hitters, while his ideal attack angle rate is the lowest in the AL. Among Blue Jays batters (min. 30 PA), his ideal attack angle rate is almost six points lower than anyone else's. It’s also about five points lower than it was last year. Guerrero might never be a guy with high attack angles, but it sure seems like poor timing is holding him back from reaching his full potential right now. The Blue Jays Rank in the Middle of the Pack in Attack Direction Attack direction is pretty much the horizontal companion to attack angle. It measures the angle at which the bat is travelling as it makes contact with (or passes by) the baseball, but it is measured in relation to the front of home plate rather than the ground. That means it tells us whether the bat is moving toward a hitter’s pull side or oppo side at the moment of contact. Toronto’s average attack direction is two degrees to the pull side, which is right around league average. As with all of the other metrics we’ve discussed, it’s not necessarily better or worse to have a heavy pull-side or heavy oppo-side average attack direction. That said, swings with a pull-side attack direction are going to lead to pulled contact, which usually results in more extra-base hits. It's interesting to find the Blue Jays sitting in the middle of the pack with a slight pull tendency according to this metric, considering they have such a low pull rate this season. However, one thing to consider is that their pull rate on fly balls is right around league average. So, when vertical angle isn't an issue, the Blue Jays are pulling the ball just fine. However, they're far more likely to be late (and therefore hit the ball to the opposite field) on the balls they hit into the ground. Among individual players, Tyler Heineman stands out with a 13-degree pull-side average attack angle. That’s the fifth most extreme pull-side swing in the league (min. 50 swings). The fact that Heineman is pulling the ball so much has played a big role in helping him maintain such ridiculous offensive numbers despite his slow swing speed and low exit velocities. *** I chose to dig into the Blue Jays' team-wide numbers as a fun way to get my feet wet, but I quickly realized that the new Statcast swing metrics are much more useful for analyzing individual players. For one thing, looking at team averages can hide extreme profiles on both ends of the spectrum. Moreover, what works for one player won’t necessarily work for another. The best swing for Vladdy isn't the best swing for Bo, so there's only so much we can learn from combining their swing data. I also realized that the best use for these metrics is comparing a player's swing from one season to the next, so as to better understand what he might be doing differently. Needless to say, there's a lot more for me (and all of us) to learn about how to use these new stats, and a lot more to learn about how the Blue Jays swing the bat. We're still just scratching the surface. View full article

The Blue Jays spent more money upgrading their bullpen over the 2024-25 offseason than any other AL team; only the Dodgers outspent the Jays on free agent relievers. It wasn’t hard to understand why. Blue Jays relievers had the highest ERA and the lowest strikeout rate in the Junior Circuit last year. According to FanGraphs, their bullpen was three wins worse than that of any other AL team. Heck, their -2.5 bullpen fWAR was the lowest for any AL club in more than a decade. Jeff Hoffman was the big-name signing. Widely considered the second-best bullpen arm on the market (after the southpaw Tanner Scott), Hoffman did indeed command the second-largest contract of any free agent reliever (second only to Scott), inking a three-year, $33 million deal with the Jays. Yimi García didn’t receive nearly as much attention. Many publications left him off their lists of the top free agents, and as far as I can tell, he wasn’t credibly linked to any other suitors before he signed with the Jays. Yet, he was one of just seven relief pitchers to sign a multi-year deal last winter, and his $15 million salary over two years was the sixth-highest guarantee for a free agent reliever. That’s not chump change. García threw 157 innings for the Jays from 2022-24 before they flipped him to the Mariners ahead of the deadline last summer. He then appeared in just 10 games for Seattle before a bout of elbow inflammation sent him to the IL. So, the Blue Jays arguably knew García better than any other team, and they signed him to a $15 million deal despite his age (he’ll be 35 in August), his struggles with Seattle (6 ER in 9.0 IP), and the elbow injury that prematurely ended his 2024 campaign. They were that sure he could be a difference-maker in their bullpen – a bullpen that desperately needed all the help it could get. Over his first 21 appearances in 2025, García was exactly what the Blue Jays hoped he could be. Seeing most of his work in the eighth and ninth innings, he pitched to a 3.15 ERA and 2.98 FIP. Now, he wasn’t always perfect. He earned losses in back-to-back appearances at the beginning of May, giving up a total of seven runs while recording just three outs. He has also issued nine unintentional walks this year, the same number as last year in about half as many innings. Still, by and large, García was effective through those first 21 outings, making use of his 96-mph fastball and deep arsenal of secondaries to earn whiffs and limit extra-base hits. In fact, one could make a case that he was the most trustworthy reliever in John Schneider’s ‘pen. Hoffman is the All-Star closer, but he has been uncharacteristically shaky in May. Conversely, fellow veteran Chad Green has had good results, but his underlying numbers are troubling – specifically his league-worst hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Brendon Little has been nothing short of stellar, but the sample is still small, and his track record before this season is almost non-existent. García is the only pitcher in the Blue Jays bullpen with good stuff, good results, and a history of success. Or at least he was. Over the weekend, the Blue Jays placed García on the 15-day IL with a right shoulder impingement. He received a cortisone shot on Monday, and for what it's worth, he says he already feels better (per The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon). That said, the team won’t have a clear sense of his timeline until he starts throwing again in a few days. A shoulder impingement is a common cause of shoulder pain, and its severity can vary. Sometimes, all it takes is a little rest, a little ice, and maybe a few Advil to make the pain subside. Other times, however, surgery is the best course of action. In García’s case, it doesn’t seem like surgery will be necessary. Even so, it's very difficult to guess how long it will take before he's back on the field. Just as the severity of a shoulder impingement can vary widely, so can the amount of time it takes for a pitcher to return to the field. For example, Mets star closer Edwin Díaz went on the IL with a shoulder impingement around this time last year. He returned less than three weeks later and pitched to a 2.41 ERA and 2.07 FIP over the rest of the year. All he needed was a little rest, and he was back to being his dominant self. On the other hand, Díaz’s then-teammate (and former Blue Jay) Sean Reid-Foley also dealt with a shoulder impingement last season. He opened the year on the IL and returned in mid-April. However, the impingement came back and shut him down again in June. He spent the rest of the season on the injured list. Then, he failed to make the Mets out of camp this year, and after he struggled badly at Triple A, the Mets released him last week. You can't necessarily blame the shoulder impingement for all of that, but it's concerning all the same. Hopefully, García only needs a brief rest and reset period before he can get back to his pivotal late-inning role in the Blue Jays' bullpen. On top of that, perhaps this shoulder issue, which Schneider said has been simmering for a few weeks (per Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling), explains some of García’s recent control issues, and the righty will be even better upon his return. At the same time, the Blue Jays have to prepare for the possibility that this could be a longer absence. Arm injuries are always worrisome, and especially so for a pitcher in his mid-thirties. In the meantime, for however long that is, the Blue Jays will have to hope that Hoffman can break out of his May funk and some of the less proven arms in the barn can step up too. (Don’t look now, but Yariel Rodríguez has been fantastic in May.) They'll also hope that Erik Swanson and Ryan Burr, both of whom are currently on rehab assignments, could be on their way back to reinforce the 'pen. That's far from a perfect plan, but right now, it's pretty much all the Jays can do. Relievers might be a dime a dozen in this day and age, but trusted relievers like García are never easy to replace. View full article

In the bottom of the sixth inning on Sunday, Myles Straw made a terrific catch. With two outs, Rays batter Chandler Simpson lined a Paxton Schultz fastball to shallow center field. Straw made the sliding grab look easy, but, of course, it wasn’t. Even a slightly slower outfielder would have had to play it on a hop. And god forbid, if the ball had gone past Straw, the lightning-fast Simpson could have easily turned it into a triple. Instead, Toronto's center fielder recorded the final out of the inning like it was nothing. He slid for the ball and popped back up to jog toward the dugout in one fluid motion. It was just another day at the office for one of the best defensive outfielders in the league: Yet, the next time Straw got his hands on the ball, he was playing a whole new position. In the bottom of the seventh, Nathan Lukes came in to play left field. He took first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s spot in the lineup. To make that work, a few more switcheroos were in order. Jonatan Clase went from left field to center. Michael Stefanic slid from second base to shortstop. Ernie Clement moved from shortstop to first base. That left Straw to play... second base? Yup, second base. Straw had not played the infield since 2020, when he played three innings at shortstop for the Astros in a blowout win. He hasn't played second base since 2019. In total, he has played 54 innings at the keystone in his major league and minor league careers combined. The last of those innings was on September 29, 2019. So, you can hardly blame Straw for looking a little rusty in the infield on Sunday. He only had to make one play at second base, and it was a routine groundball. However, he double-clutched on the throw before slowly lobbing it over to Clement at first base. Thankfully, Yandy Díaz was the one doing the running (if you can even call it that; it was more of a light jog), giving Straw plenty of time to make his awkward throw and record the assist: I can't help but wonder: How often does a Gold Glove-winning center fielder make a highlight-reel catch in the outfield to end one inning, only to find himself at second base – a position he hasn’t played in more than five years – the very next frame? How often do you see a player show such defensive acumen on one play, only to look completely unprepared the next time he touches the ball? Unfortunately, Stathead doesn't have a filter for a search that specific. Ah, well. Blowout losses like the 13-0 pounding the Blue Jays suffered on Sunday aren’t fun. Still, you can find some fun in even the toughest of losses if you’re willing to look for it. Straw playing second base was just one example. Another example? Let's turn to the player who started the game at second. Clement moved from second base to shortstop to first base back to shortstop in the span of three innings. Even for a player whose versatility is a key component of his skill set, that's rare to see. This was the first time he had ever played three different positions in the same game, and certainly the first time he had switched positions three times in three consecutive innings. (He also made outs at all three spots!) What's more, Clement became the first player in Blue Jays history to appear at first base, second base, and shortstop in the same game, and the first MLB player to do so since Brock Holt of the Red Sox in July 2019. Meanwhile, Stefanic became the first Blue Jay ever to appear at second base, shortstop, and pitcher in the same game. (The last MLB player to play those three positions in a game was Pablo Reyes, also of the Red Sox, in August 2023.) This was especially unusual considering Stefanic didn’t even start the game. He only played three defensive innings, and each was at a different spot on the diamond. In close to 150 years of MLB history, no one has ever before played each of those three positions in a game in which they had one plate appearance or fewer. This was Stefanic's second pitching appearance; he also pitched an inning last year with the Angels. Not only that, but it was his second scoreless pitching appearance. While he may have been lobbing the ball over the plate at 60 mph, Stefanic retired all three batters he faced on just seven pitches. He was then the first batter up in the top of the ninth, where he worked an eight-pitch at-bat for a single (giving him a perfect 0.00 ERA and 1.000 batting average on the day). That single was one of just four Blue Jays hits in the entire game, and the first hit by a "pitcher" on any team all season. Funnily enough, a Blue Jays utility infielder was also one of only three “pitchers” to have a hit last season; Isiah Kiner-Falefa played third base, shortstop, and pitcher in a blowout loss to the Dodgers last April and singled in the bottom of the ninth after pitching the top of the inning. All told, the Blue Jays had five different players switch positions and a total of eight positional switches in Sunday's game. In addition to Straw, Clement, Stefanic, and Clase, Anthony Santander moved from DH to first base, marking his first appearance in the infield with Toronto. There is no denying this was a crappy weekend for the Blue Jays. Hot off a sweep of the Padres, the Jays were swept themselves. To make matters worse, the games weren’t all they lost. They also lost their hot-hitting backup catcher, Tyler Heineman, and one of their most important relievers, Yimi García, to the injured list. Nevertheless, we as fans must continue to look for ways to enjoy these games. Even the most crushing defeats can come with little bits of fun and weirdness that make the losses worth watching. If you're going to make it through a 162-game season, sometimes you just have to ignore the score and embrace the strange. View full article

When it comes to the Blue Jays’ rotation, most of the talk this season has revolved around the fifth starter (or really, the lack thereof). Fair enough. Max Scherzer lasted just three innings on March 29. He hasn’t pitched since. The Jays have filled the gap with a rotating crew of fungible depth arms. However, while Blue Jays starters not named Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, and Bowden Francis have combined for a 6.53 ERA and 7.23 FIP in nine starts (prior to play on Friday), the team has gone 5-4 in those games. Meanwhile, they are 20-20 in games pitched by their top four starters. In other words, the lack of a true fifth starter hasn’t actually hurt the Jays, at least not yet. Perhaps they would have won more than five of those nine games with a more capable starter on the mound, but all things considered, you can’t complain about a .556 winning percentage in games started by your number five(s). What’s much more disappointing is that the Blue Jays are only .500 in games started by Gausman, Bassitt, Berríos, and Francis. I don’t expect either of these trends to continue. The Blue Jays should be better than they have been in games started by their top four arms. On the flip side, they can’t expect to continue winning so often when they start guys like José Ureña, Eric Lauer, and Easton Lucas. Ultimately, as I’ve said before, rotation depth could be what makes or breaks the Blue Jays' regular season. Whether or not they find a trustworthy fifth starter – be it Scherzer, Spencer Turnbull, Alek Manoah, or someone else – could be what makes the difference between the Jays earning a Wild Card berth or packing up their lockers come October. Yet, if the Blue Jays make the playoffs, their number five starter won’t matter anymore. Instead, the top of the rotation will be more important than ever. This makes me wonder if we’ve all spent too much time worrying about Toronto's lack of a fifth starter when we should be worrying that the Jays don’t have an ace. If Toronto is going to compete with the best of the best in the Wild Card race and into the playoffs, having a true stopper at the top of the rotation would go a long way. Which of this team’s three (healthy) veteran starters could best fill that role? Chris Bassitt Bassitt has pitched like an ace so far this season. He is 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA. The Blue Jays are 6-4 in his starts. Even better, his underlying numbers are similarly impressive. His FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA all put him among the top 10 qualified AL starters. So do his strikeout-to-walk ratio, strikeout rate minus walk rate, and groundball rate. I wrote a piece earlier this month describing how Bassitt has improved his command, upped his chase rate, and decreased his walk rate to a career low. I’m not sure he has ever pitched this well in his career. But that’s just it. Bassitt has a long track record of pitching like a mid-rotation starter. He has a 3.57 ERA in just under 200 career starts. He’s also 36 years old and pitching with diminished velocity. He hasn’t dramatically changed his arsenal or any specific pitch within his arsenal. Everything we’ve seen so far has been terrific, but it’s just hard to believe that an aging Bassitt has really blossomed into an ace in his 11th big league season. In other words, it’s hard to believe he can maintain numbers like this throughout the summer, down the stretch, and into the playoffs. José Berríos Berríos has been with the Blue Jays for four Opening Days. He has started on three of them, including this year’s opener against the Orioles. That’s not for nothing. It was only two months ago that John Schneider looked at all the pitchers on his staff – including Gausman and Bassitt, the highest-paid pitchers on the team; Francis, who was Toronto’s best arm over the final two months of 2024; and even Scherzer, the three-time Cy Young winner who had the best numbers of any Blue Jays starter in spring training – and the skipper picked Berríos to lead the team into 2025. Unfortunately, Berríos just hasn’t looked sharp this year. His 4.19 ERA is perfectly acceptable, but it’s a big step back from his mid-3.00s ERAs in 2023 and ‘24. His 5.11 xERA and 4.72 FIP are even worse. To his credit, Berríos outperformed his xERA and FIP in each of the past two years, and perhaps he can do so again. Regardless, the fact that all of his ERA estimators are higher than his ERA suggests he probably isn't due for some positive regression. Indeed, his velocity is down, his chase rate is down, his walk rate is the highest it's been since his rookie season, and opposing hitters are barreling him up more than ever. There’s very little about his profile that says “ace” right now. Berríos was very effective from 2023-24, making 64 starts with a 3.63 ERA. He’s also significantly younger than Bassitt and Gausman. If I had to bet on a Blue Jays pitcher to make 32 starts this season, I’d pick Berríos in a heartbeat. Furthermore, it’s been less than two months since he made the third Opening Day start of his Blue Jays career. It’s clear the Blue Jays see his ace upside in Berríos. I’m just not sure I can say the same. Kevin Gausman As far as I’m concerned, Gausman is the no. 1 on this staff. I’ll be honest, I came up with the idea for this article last week, after Gausman gave up six runs on 10 hits (including three homers) against the Rays. Following that performance, I genuinely had my doubts about who this team’s best starter might be. Then, Gausman made me realize I was putting too much stock in a small sample. He twirled seven beautiful innings against the Padres on Wednesday, striking out nine and walking one. The Blue Jays scored 14 that day, but they could have scored just once and still won the game. I’d argue this performance was one of only two truly ace-like outings we’ve seen from a Blue Jays pitcher all year. Gausman threw both of them. (The other was his eight-inning gem against the Red Sox in April.) If you can overlook the wide gap between their ERAs, Gausman’s and Bassitt’s seasons don’t look all that different: Pitcher IP SO BB HBP HR FIP SIERA fWAR Bassitt 57 1/3 61 11 2 6 2.99 3.15 1.4 Gausman 58 55 12 0 7 3.37 3.51 1.1 I can’t deny that Bassitt has been the better pitcher thus far in 2025. Still, if I’m presented with numbers this similar, I’m going to lean toward the pitcher who has been a bona fide ace in the recent past. I’m going to lean toward the pitcher who is two years younger and hasn’t lost any velocity on his fastball. I’m going to lean toward the pitcher with the superior arsenal according to pitch models like PitchingBot, Pitching+, and PitchPro. Am I confident that Gausman can still be the true ace he was at his peak from 2020-23? No. He wasn’t that pitcher last year, and he hasn’t been that pitcher this year either. However, if anyone is going to step up and be the ace the Blue Jays need this season, Gausman is the best bet. Stats in article updated prior to games on May 23. View full article

Tuesday was a pitchers duel. Wednesday was a blowout. Thursday was a nail-biter, capped off by a walk-off in extras. They were three very different victories, each satisfying in its own way. In the end, the Blue Jays came away with a sweep over one of the best teams in baseball. Entering play on Tuesday, May 20, the Padres were one of five clubs in either league with a winning percentage in the .600s. The Blue Jays ranked among the bottom third of teams at 22-24 (.478). By run differential, the matchup looked far more lopsided. The Padres had scored 20 more runs than the Blue Jays. Even worse, Toronto had given up 46 more runs than San Diego – one extra run per game. Chris Bassitt took the ball in the first game of the series and continued to do what he's done all season. The righty threw six scoreless innings, striking out six and walking just one. Dylan Cease pitched well himself, going seven innings for the Padres, but two of the three hits he allowed were home runs to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander. Thanks to Bassitt's excellent performance, followed by three equally excellent innings of relief from Brendon Little, Yariel Rodríguez, and Jeff Hoffman, those two home runs would be all the Blue Jays needed to beat the Padres 3-0. Toronto received another terrific pitching performance in game two. Indeed, it was arguably the most dominant showing we've seen from a Blue Jays starter all season. Kevin Gausman went seven scoreless, giving up just three hits and striking out nine. José Ureña pitched well too, closing out the game with a pair of scoreless innings of his own. It was his first outing of the year in which he didn't give up a run. With that said, this game was all about the bats. The Blue Jays absolutely pounded the Padres for their most commanding victory of the year, a 14-0 rout. Every player who stepped up to the plate reached base at least once. Nathan Lukes started the scoring with a two-run homer in the fifth. Jonatan Clase, George Springer, and Addison Barger hit doubles. Bo Bichette had two hits and two RBI. Daulton Varsho crushed a grand slam to deep center field. The last time the Blue Jays scored at least 14 runs and shut out an opponent with a winning record was... just last year, in a 15-0 victory over the Twins on August 31. However, they haven't pulled off a victory quite like this in front of a home crowd since they beat the Yankees 14-0 at what was then known as the SkyDome on September 4, 2001. After 19 shutout innings, Blue Jays pitching finally faltered in the second inning of game three, when Bowden Francis allowed a single to Jackson Merrill followed by a home run from Gavin Sheets. Not to be deterred, Toronto quickly retook the lead with back-to-back two-run innings in the third and fourth. The Jays kept the Padres' bats at bay from innings two through eight, holding a 4-2 lead into the ninth. However, Merrill and Sheets made things interesting once again. Merrill walked and Sheets homered off Hoffman to tie things up. (I'm going for positivity here, so let's blow past Hoffman's third blown save of the season for now.) Thankfully, the Blue Jays' hitters never stopped battling. Each team drove in the automatic runner in the 10th and 11th innings, but a triple from Varsho and a single from Lukes helped the Jays score the extra run they needed in the bottom of the 11th to walk off the game and secure the series sweep. Like I said, they were three very different victories, each satisfying in its own way. But Toronto's challenge isn't over. It's just beginning. Game one against the Padres was the beginning of a two-week stretch without a day off. The Blue Jays had an off day on Monday, May 19. They won't have another until Monday, June 2. Every other team in the league has at least one rest day during this period. Not the Jays. The Blue Jays were also scheduled to play 13 games in 13 days from April 4-16, but a rainout in Baltimore provided a bonus day off. Thus, this will be the longest run of interrupted baseball the Jays have played so far this season. Beating the Padres was the most daunting task of the stretch – the next ten games are against the Rays (3), Rangers (3), and Athletics (4) – but the Blue Jays were well-rested for this one. They hadn't been on the road since they returned from Seattle on May 11, and they had off days on May 12 and 19. Now, they will journey from Toronto to Tampa to Arlington before heading back home without a dedicated travel day. More than anything, this will be a test for the pitching staff. The veteran workhorses, Bassitt, Gausman, and José Berríos, should be fine. But Francis has already struggled this season, and his outing yesterday marked the first time since the summer of 2021 (a period beginning at Triple-A Nashville in the Brewers' system) that he has started 10 straight games in a season without a relief appearance in between. He may be 29 and pitching in his fourth MLB season, but Francis is still green. His first full season as a big league starter is reaching the point at which his durability will truly be tested. With a 5.54 ERA and 5.77 xERA through 10 starts, he could surely use an extra day off to help clear his head. Instead, he'll have to make his next two starts on four days' rest. Perhaps even more concerning is the question of the fifth spot in the rotation. Eric Lauer has pitched well so far, but he has mostly worked as part of a piggyback setup, and his recent track record beyond his four appearances in 2025 doesn't exactly instill a ton of confidence. Hopefully, he can provide a bit more length in his two upcoming starts. After all, the Blue Jays don't want to have to rely too heavily on either of their multi-inning relievers, Ureña and Rodríguez, to back up Lauer. This stretch will be just as taxing on the bullpen as it will be on the rotation. John Schneider will have to be meticulous with how he uses his arm barn. All eight men in the 'pen will be critical over the next 10 days. There is no doubt this long stretch of games will present a challenge to the Blue Jays. Thankfully, they got off on the best foot possible. These past three games against the Padres represented some of the best baseball we've seen from the Blue Jays all year. Let's hope they can maintain this momentum over their next three series View full article

Following a slow start to the season, Alejandro Kirk has been red-hot since the end of April. In his last 17 games, he is 24-for-65 (.369) with an .871 OPS and a 148 wRC+. That stretch includes the two most impactful hits of his career, at least according to Win Probability Added. On April 25, with the Blue Jays down by one in the ninth, he knocked a two-run double to deep center field to give Toronto the lead. Three weeks later, he crushed a three-run home run in the sixth that carried the Jays to a 3-1 victory. Due to his recent hot streak, Kirk's full-season numbers (.287 AVG, 95 wRC+) are perfectly respectable, despite his dreadful performance over the first four weeks of the year (.211 AVG, 51 wRC+). Meanwhile, Tyler Heineman has been hot since day one, albeit in a limited role. Through 18 games and 47 trips to the plate, he's batting .386 (17-for-44) with a .950 OPS and a 171 wRC+. He's hit four doubles and one home run, and he's stolen a couple of bases for good measure. Twenty-five AL catchers have taken more plate appearances than Heineman this year. Only one, Cal Raleigh, has outproduced Heineman in the offensive component of FanGraphs WAR. Now, Heineman's performance is absolutely, definitely, without a doubt unsustainable. For one thing, he's running a .457 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). No player in major league history has ever maintained a BABIP that high over more than 150 PA. What's more, he has only drawn two walks on the season, while he's chased at almost half the pitches he's seen outside the strike zone. That's not an approach that can sustain a .950 OPS. Finally, no hitter (min. 25 PA) has a larger gap between his wOBA (.409) and xwOBA (.270). All that to say, if you think Heineman has genuinely broken out as a middle-of-the-order threat, then boy, do I have a bridge to sell you. Yet, none of that takes away from what Heineman has accomplished thus far in the season. He's already been worth 1.0 fWAR, which is more than many teams get from their backup catcher all season. Even if he is nothing more than replacement level for the rest of the year, the Blue Jays would have no reason not to be happy with his performance. Thanks to Kirk heating up and Heineman not yet slowing down, the Blue Jays have gotten more offensive production from their catchers than all but three AL teams (per FanGraphs). They rank first among AL catchers in batting average, third in OBP, and fourth in slugging. They're second in OPS and fourth in wOBA, wRC+, and the offensive component of fWAR. Even better? Their catchers' production at the plate is nothing compared to what they've done behind it. Kirk has been a defensive stud for years. Since 2022, he has consistently ranked among the league leaders in every pitch framing metric out there. This season has been no exception. He also improved tremendously last year when it came to controlling the running game. He threw out 31% (27 out of 87) of would-be base-stealers and led the AL in Statcast's caught stealing runs above average. That was clearly no fluke, because he has continued to throw out runners at a 30% clip, and he's on pace to top his +8 Statcast caught stealing runs from last season. Kirk is taking on a heavier defensive workload than ever before, and so far, he's thriving. Heineman, too, has been impressive behind the dish. Indeed, while his bat has stolen the show this year, his glove is the real reason the Blue Jays keep bringing him back. The sample is small, but his framing has graded out well, much like it has throughout his brief career. He has also thrown out more than half of the baserunners (six of 11) who have tried to steal on him. Collectively, he and Kirk have the Blue Jays ranked second in the AL in framing runs, according to both FanGraphs and Statcast. The Blue Jays also lead AL teams in Statcast's caught stealing metric, and they lead all major league teams in the defensive component of FanGraphs WAR. Altogether, Blue Jays catchers have given their team 2.1 fWAR through the first 48 games of the season. That's a 7.2-win pace. The last time any team got more than 7.0 fWAR from its catchers was in 2022... when Blue Jays backstops led the league with 7.7. Kirk and Heineman (but mostly Kirk) were both a part of that effort, although they also had a lot of help from Danny Jansen, as well as Gabriel Moreno and Zack Collins. The last AL team that wasn't the Blue Jays to get more than 7.0 fWAR from its catchers was the Twins in 2009, Joe Mauer's MVP season. Right now, Blue Jays catchers rank second in the AL and third in the majors in fWAR, trailing the Mariners (3.4 fWAR) and Braves (2.4 fWAR). The only position at which the Blue Jays rank higher is center field; just the Cubs, led by Pete Crow-Armstrong, have outperformed the Jays in center. However, Blue Jays catchers have outproduced their center fielders by about a quarter of a win. The numbers at Baseball Prospectus point to the same conclusion; Kirk and Heineman edge out the center field quartet of Daulton Varsho, Myles Straw, George Springer, and Nathan Lukes. Of course, the fact that Toronto's catchers have fractionally more WAR than their center fielders isn't what's important. What matters is that this team's catchers have been an undeniable strength. Alejandro Kirk is showing why his five-year extension was such a bargain. Tyler Heineman has been a kick-ass backup in his third stint with Toronto. Together, they have made up one of the best catching tandems in the sport. Not everything has gone according to plan for the Jays this season, but their catchers have proven to be a real catch. All stats and rankings in article updated prior to games on Monday, May 19. View full article

Just in A ball on a rehab assignment after a shoulder injury. He should be back at Triple A soon enough

Good point. I was hesitant to bring either of them up because I feel like I haven't heard much in the way of concrete updates about either of them in a while. But every extra depth arm matters right now!

Entering the 2025 season, it felt like every prospect evaluator had a slightly different opinion about Jake Bloss’s potential. That’s not uncommon, especially when it comes to a young pitcher with tremendous skills and equally un-tremendous numbers from his first showing in the major leagues. The team at FanGraphs ranked Bloss as the no. 1 prospect in the Blue Jays system and the 59th-overall prospect in baseball. They grouped him among the “fully baked no. 4 starters” on their list, giving him a 50 Future Value (FV) grade. Meanwhile, the Baseball Prospectus staff ranked Bloss third in Toronto’s system and left him off of their Top 101 list entirely. However, their overall write-up of Bloss was more optimistic than the evaluation from FanGraphs. BP gave him a 55 FV and said he looked like a future “no. 3 starter.” Baseball America ranked him no. 5 in the organization but called him a “quality” fifth starter. Keith Law of The Athletic agreed with FanGraphs that Bloss could be “a quality fourth starter,” but ranked him no. 6. Scott Mitchell of TSN described him as a future “mid-rotation” starting pitcher but only ranked him fourth among Blue Jays pitching prospects and no. 7 overall. Did Bloss have a future as a third, fourth, or fifth starter? Was he the Blue Jays’ best pitching prospect? Second, third, or fourth best? It all depended on who you asked. Yet, there was one recurring theme throughout many of his pre-season prospect write-ups: He would contribute meaningful innings to the Blue Jays’ rotation in 2025. “The rate at which Bloss has developed and, for the most part, succeeded is exciting, and he should entrench himself toward the back of Toronto’s rotation at some point in 2025.” -Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs “Bloss looks like a quality No. 5 starter ready to contribute in 2025.” -Baseball America “Bloss is likely to start at Triple-A and be one of the first arms on call when a starter is needed.” -Mitchell, TSN Of course, there are no guarantees when it comes to prospects. There are no guarantees when it comes to baseball. On Tuesday, the Blue Jays found out that Bloss will not contribute to the big league effort in 2025. The 23-year-old needs surgery to repair his UCL. It’s not yet clear what kind of surgery he needs – it could be traditional Tommy John or an internal brace procedure – so it’s not yet clear how much time he’ll miss. One thing that is clear? His season is done. There's no way to sugarcoat this. It's a terrible setback for a promising young pitcher. Bloss is 23 right now. He could be 25 before he starts another game. All that he and the Blue Jays can do now is work toward his healthy return in 2026. After the Astros selected him in the third round of the 2023 draft, Bloss quickly got to work dominating the minor leagues. Over his first 19 professional games, from the Complex League up to Double A, he pitched to a 2.01 ERA and 3.21 FIP in 80 ⅔ innings. Then, on June 21, less than a year from the day he was drafted, he got the call to Houston to make his MLB debut. The excitement was palpable, but it didn’t last long. Bloss exited his first big league start with shoulder discomfort. It wasn't a serious injury, and he was back from the IL in less than three weeks. However, he wasn't the same from that point on. Bloss gave up seven runs in eight innings over two more starts with the 'Stros. After joining the Blue Jays in the Yusei Kikuchi trade, he pitched to a 6.71 ERA in 14 starts at Triple A. His upside was still there, but it no longer jumped off the page. His latest injury isn’t directly related to his last one – it’s in his elbow this time, not his shoulder – but it's hard not to wonder if Bloss has been pitching through pain for a while. Hopefully, surgery and a long, thorough rehab are exactly what he needs to return to full strength. In the meantime, the Blue Jays will be down another option for their starting staff. With Max Scherzer on the IL, the Jays have essentially operated with a four-man rotation plus a rotating crew of depth arms since the first week of the season. Bloss could have been a more permanent solution. Indeed, when Scherzer first hit the IL, MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson wrote, "If the Blue Jays get the sense that this is a long-term issue for Scherzer that could stretch beyond a month, that’s when [Bloss] enters the picture.” To that point, general manager Ross Atkins suggested the team was more seriously considering calling up Bloss earlier this month. "Bloss is an option right now," the GM told reporters, including Matheson. "I would be comfortable with him coming here tomorrow if that needed to be.” While Bloss's numbers at Triple A weren’t great, he pitched his two best games since joining the organization back-to-back at the end of April. The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon reported that Bloss had made "minor delivery tweaks and impressed Toronto’s development staff with a step forward in command.” That's all moot now. Bloss is no longer an option. Scherzer has no clear timeline to return. On the contrary, Matheson recently reported that Scherzer “ran into some mid-back tightness coming out of his last throwing session." It might be weeks or it might be months until Scherzer is healthy again. We just don't know. In the meantime, the Blue Jays will continue to rely on José Ureña and Eric Lauer. That's worked well enough so far, but it's a band-aid solution at best that feels like it could blow up in Toronto's face at any time. Spencer Turnbull offers more upside but also more uncertainty. The same can be said of Alek Manoah, who is tracking to return at some point this summer. Perhaps Ureña and Lauer can hold down the fort until one of Turnbull, Manoah, or Scherzer is ready to take over. That plan could work. It could also prove disastrous. There is a world in which Turnbull comes up and looks like the pitcher he was for the Phillies last April. There is a world in which Manoah returns and finally looks like his old self. There is a world in which Scherzer puts his thumb and back injuries behind him and stays healthy for the rest of the year. There is also a world in which none of that happens, and the lack of a proper fifth starter is what ultimately sinks this team. Jake Bloss was no more of a sure thing than any of Toronto's other options. But when a sure thing isn't available, the best way to increase your odds of success is through depth; the more tickets you buy, the more likely you are to win the lottery. With Bloss out for the year, the Blue Jays are down a lottery ticket. We don't know if he would have had the winning numbers, but now we'll have to wait even longer to find out. View full article

Eric Lauer made his Blue Jays debut on April 30, 2025. It was a long time in the making. In the summer of 2013, the Jays saw something they couldn’t resist in Lauer. Days after his 18th birthday, the southpaw heard his name called in the 17th round of the MLB draft. The Blue Jays must have known it was a long shot, but they pulled the trigger anyway. Lauer had already committed to play college ball – that’s precisely why he fell so low in the draft – and even Toronto’s seven-figure offer couldn’t change his mind. Three years later, the Padres selected him 25th overall. More than a decade after they drafted him, the Blue Jays still saw something to like in Lauer. His stock was low when Toronto signed him this past winter. He had been a solid mid-rotation arm for the Brewers from 2021-22, pitching to a 3.47 ERA with 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 53 games. Yet, he struggled so badly in 2023 that he ended up making as many starts at Triple A as he did in the majors. Milwaukee cut him loose at the end of the year. It wasn’t until March of 2024 that Lauer inked a minor league deal with the Pirates, and he failed to make it back to the majors with either the Pirates or later the Astros. The lefty ultimately finished the 2024 campaign in the KBO, where he pitched to a roughly league-average ERA in seven starts. He won the Korean Series with the Kia Tigers, but the Tigers chose not to keep him around for 2025. Despite his rough go of it in each of the two years prior, the Blue Jays signed Lauer relatively early in the 2024-25 offseason. They offered him $2.2 million if he made the roster, with playing time incentives that could increase the value of the deal. That’s not a huge expense for a team like Toronto, but it’s on the higher end for a minor league deal. All this to say, the Blue Jays didn’t just pick Lauer up off the scrap heap for lack of a better option. They must have seen something in his arm to make them want to take a chance on him, much like they did all those years ago. Though it took a month for Lauer to earn the call to Toronto, he has done exactly what he's needed to do through his first three Blue Jays appearances. In his first and third outings, he piggybacked off of an opener. Coming in after Yariel Rodríguez to face the Red Sox on April 30, Lauer gave up two runs in his first inning of work. He settled in after that, tossing three more scoreless frames. The Blue Jays went on to win on a walkoff in the 10th. Then, this past Sunday, he entered in the third inning after José Ureña had faced the Mariners’ order once through. Lauer cruised through the outing, facing the minimum through 4 2/3. He struck out five. Toronto trounced Seattle 9-1. In between those two pseudo-starts, Lauer made a more traditional relief appearance. John Schneider might have been planning to piggyback him with Ureña that day, but Ureña pitched into the fifth, and with the game tied 2-2, the skipper opted to use his best bullpen arms to try to secure a win. Toronto took a one-run lead in the top of the eighth, and setup man Yimi García came in for the bottom of the frame. Yet, eight batters, six runs, and one pitching change later, Schneider was handing the ball to Lauer. Thankfully, Lauer accomplished what García and Jeff Hoffman couldn’t; he finished the inning with a single pitch. Lauer has been nothing short of excellent so far. There's no doubt about it, particularly after his performance on Sunday. If his first three outings with the Blue Jays were one start, he’d have thrown a complete game, facing only five batters more than the minimum. He has nine strikeouts and 18 whiffs. He’s given up two runs on four hits, three walks, and a hit-by-pitch. I'm certainly not suggesting Lauer is going to maintain a 2.00 ERA all season. He's just not that kind of arm. This is a guy with a career 4.26 ERA. He had a 5.26 ERA at Triple A last year and a 5.63 ERA this spring. He had a 4.50 ERA in five starts for the Buffalo Bisons before his call-up to the Jays. His days as a coveted draft prospect are far behind him. Indeed, pitch models like PitchingBot and Stuff+ suggest Lauer has been one of the more hittable pitchers in the league this year – even if his opponents haven’t actually managed many hits yet. His track record? Less than stellar. His stuff? Even less so. So, when I say the Blue Jays saw something they liked in Lauer, I'm not saying they have a plan to turn him into an ace, or even a mid-rotation arm, or heck, even a number five starter. All I mean is that he can be a guy who gives them some innings in more than a last resort, mop-up capacity. Every contending team needs arms like that to make it through the season, and they aren't as easy to find as you might think. Two weeks since his call-up, Lauer has already contributed to a couple of wins. He also saved the bullpen from further embarrassment in a tough loss. In other words, he has gotten the job done, and the Jays will hope he continues to do so in whatever role they need him to fill. Lauer joining the Blue Jays was a long time in the making. If he can play just a small part in getting them into the playoffs this year, he'll have been worth the wait. View full article

Following a hot start to the season, Chris Bassitt is looking more like his old self. We knew that the version of Bassitt with a sub-1.00 ERA was never going to stick around all year. He has more than quadrupled his ERA over his last four starts, bringing it up from 0.77 on April 16 to 3.35 after his latest start on May 8. Still, he has pitched into the sixth in each of his last four outings and has not given up more than four earned runs in a start. Bulk and reliability are exactly what the Blue Jays need from Bassitt; his strong showing in his first four starts was just a cherry on top. Yet, while Bassitt has regressed, the flame from his hot start hasn’t been altogether extinguished. There is one thing he continues to do exceptionally well. Bassitt walked five of 93 batters through his first four games, good for a 5.4% walk rate. If he had kept that up all season, it would have been the best of his career. But he hasn’t kept it up; he’s brought it down. Across his last four starts, he has walked only three of 103 batters (2.9%), bringing his walk rate on the season down to 4.1%. Entering this year, his career walk rate was 7.6%. His lowest walk rate in any season was 6.1% (in 2021). As recently as 2024, his walk rate was as high as 9.2%. At risk of sounding like your grade school math teacher, 4.1% is a lot lower than all of those other numbers. Chris Bassitt's Walk Rate by Year Season IP BB% 2014 29.2 9.5% 2015 86.0 8.3% 2016 28.0 10.5% 2018 47.2 9.3% 2019 144.0 7.7% 2020 63.0 6.5% 2021 157.1 6.1% 2022 181.2 6.6% 2023 200.0 7.1% 2024 171.0 9.2% 2025 45.2 4.1% Bassitt’s 25% strikeout rate right now would also be a career high, just edging out his 24.96% rate from 2021. However, his strikeouts have dropped off considerably as of late – he struck out 33.3% in his first four starts and just 17.5% in his last four – so I’m not inclined to believe that he’ll maintain that career-best strikeout rate much longer. His walk rate is far more interesting. I should emphasize that his low walk rate could still be an effect of small sample size (SSS) randomness. After all, Bassitt has had short stretches with similarly low walk rates before. His walk rate hasn’t been quite this low in any eight-game stretch since his All-Star 2021 season, but he did have an eight-start stretch as recently as 2023 with a 4.9% walk rate. He also had several eight-game stretches with a walk rate below 5.0% in 2022. Eight-Star Stretches of Bassitt's Career With a Walk Rate Under 5% Span Start Span End BB% Apr 24, 2021 Jun 1, 2021 3.4% Apr 29, 2021 Jun 8, 2021 3.4% Apr 18, 2021 May 27, 2021 3.8% Jun 30, 2015 Aug 15, 2015 4.1% Mar 30, 2025 May 8, 2025 4.1% Jul 24, 2019 Sep 7, 2019 4.1% May 5, 2021 Jun 13, 2021 4.4% Jul 6, 2021 Aug 17, 2021 4.5% Jun 3, 2022 Jul 23, 2022 4.5% Jun 30, 2021 Aug 12, 2021 4.6% Jun 19, 2022 Aug 8, 2022 4.7% Jul 8, 2022 Aug 19, 2022 4.7% Jun 25, 2022 Aug 14, 2022 4.8% Jul 30, 2019 Sep 13, 2019 4.8% Jul 11, 2021 Sep 23, 2021 4.8% Jun 14, 2022 Aug 3, 2022 4.9% Jul 5, 2015 Aug 21, 2015 4.9% May 12, 2023 Jun 18, 2023 4.9% Jun 24, 2021 Aug 6, 2021 4.9% That being said, the last time Bassitt started a season with a walk rate this low over his first eight starts was his rookie campaign in 2015. (Funnily enough, he faced exactly 196 batters and walked exactly eight through his first eight starts in both years.) That season, however, he didn’t make his first start until the end of June, and he only made 13 starts in total. So, this is the first time we have ever seen Bassitt jump out of the gate with such a low walk in April and May. SSS weirdness is inevitably more intriguing at the beginning of a season, because we can always imagine it will last all year. Furthermore, Bassitt crossed the rule-of-thumb stabilization threshold for walk rate (170 batters faced) in his last start. That doesn’t erase SSS concerns, but it means, at the very least, that he has now faced enough batters (and walked so few of them) that it’s worth taking a closer look at what he might be doing differently. *** The most obvious explanation for a decrease in walk rate is an increase in zone rate – in other words, an increase in pitches thrown within the bounds of the strike zone. But that’s not what’s going on here. Bassitt’s zone rate in 2025 is 51.2%. That’s higher than his 50.1% zone rate in 2024, but it’s still lower than his 52.5% career average. So, he’s not throwing more strikes. Nevertheless, he’s earning more strikes because he's inducing swings at a rate like never before. Over the first 10 years of his career, Bassitt’s opponents swung at 46.3% of his pitches. He had never induced a swing rate higher than 47.7% (in 2022). All of a sudden, in 2025, his opponents have offered at more than half of his pitches (50.2%). That means you’d have better luck betting on a coin flip than you would betting that an opposing batter won't swing at a pitch from Bassitt. Are you ready to be impressed? Here is a complete list of pitchers (min. 750 pitches) with a swing rate above 50% this season, as of Sunday. Needless to say, a high swing rate is what a pitcher wants: Pitcher Zone Rate Zack Wheeler 50.5% Chris Sale 50.5% Chris Bassitt 50.2% Paul Skenes 50.1% Garrett Crochet 50.0% Bassitt has induced swings at career-best rates both inside and outside of the strike zone. However, the number that truly stands out – and the one that matters most for limiting walks – is his out-of-zone swing rate, also known as chase rate. His career chase rate from 2014-24 was 26.0%. His previous career-high chase rate was 27.2%. So far in 2025, Bassitt is inducing chase at a 32.1% rate. Let me be clear: That’s hardly an elite chase rate. It only puts Bassitt in the 81st percentile of pitchers, according to Baseball Savant. Yet, considering he has never previously ranked above the 43rd percentile, we’re talking about a massive improvement. It’s no wonder Bassitt hasn’t been walking batters; his opponents are swinging at almost a third of his pitches outside of the zone. So, this isn’t a matter of a wild pitcher reining himself in. It’s not a question of improved control. Rather, it’s all about heightened deception. To that point, the biggest difference in Bassitt's approach this season isn’t where he’s locating his pitches outside the strike zone but where he’s locating his pitches inside the strike zone. Over the first 10 seasons of his career, Bassitt threw 29.4% of his pitches, and 56.1% of his in-zone pitches, in the area Baseball Savant describes as the heart of the zone. So far in 2025, he has only thrown 25% of his pitches and 48.7% of his in-zone pitches over the heart of the plate. Both of those rates are substantially lower than they’ve ever been. Accordingly, Bassitt has thrown a career-high percentage of his pitches (and his in-zone pitches) on the edges of the strike zone instead. Take a look at these two heat maps from Bassitt's player page on FanGraphs. The first shows every pitch Bassitt threw from 2014-24. The second shows every pitch he's thrown so far in 2025. Most of the time, I'd advise against looking at such all-encompassing heat maps, but I was struck by how clear a picture these two paint. Bassitt is avoiding the heart of the zone in a way he never has before: You'll see something similar if you compare the Baseball Savant heat maps for each of his individual pitches in 2024 and 2025. This first set of heat maps is from last year: And this second set is from the current season: In particular, Bassitt has been throwing more pitches at the sides of the strike zone. There's a good chance this has something to do with his new positioning further to the third base side of the rubber, a change he adopted late last August. Combine his new positioning with the fact that he is a tall, right-hander whose average arm angle has decreased in each of the past two years, and the result is one of the most extreme third base side horizontal release points among all starting pitchers. His unusual release point is surely another piece of the puzzle that has helped him to keep hitters guessing on a horizontal plane. So, while Bassitt is throwing roughly the same amount of in-zone pitches as he always has, he’s throwing significantly fewer obvious in-zone strikes. I think that's one of the main reasons why his opponents have had so much more trouble differentiating between the pitches they should swing at and the ones they should avoid. Even better, Bassitt isn’t only fooling his opponents around the edges of the strike zone. In fact, swings just outside the strike zone (i.e. swings in the out-of-zone portion of the shadow zone) make up a lower percentage of his total chases than in any previous year. By painting the edges, Bassitt seems to have increased the radius of the strike zone for his opponents, thereby tricking them into swinging at more pitches in the chase and waste zones as well. That is all the more impressive in a season in which umpires are calling a much tighter strike zone overall. Even at his best, Chris Bassitt was never a pitcher who overpowered his opponents. He was never a guy who could challenge batters over the heart of the plate, nor was he a guy who picked up enough strikeouts that he could afford to issue a ton of walks. Now 36 years old, Bassitt is losing velocity – and he never had all that much to begin with. Simply remaining as effective as he was in his first two years with Toronto will be a tall task. In order to pull it off, he needs to rely on command and deception more than ever. There's a lot of season left to play, but so far, he's doing exactly what he needs to do. View full article

Hahaha thank you! I'm glad you get what I was going for with that

Andrés Giménez is on pace to become the first Blue Jay to steal 40 bases in a season in over a decade. Can he keep it up? Andrés Giménez is one of seven players with at least 30 stolen bases in both of the past two seasons. He is also one of seven with at least 20 stolen bases in each of the past three seasons. He is one of just three players to appear on both lists, along with Nico Hoerner and Bobby Witt Jr. All told, Giménez ranks 11th in MLB in steals since the start of the 2022 campaign. He ranks 15th in stolen base run value, according to Baseball Savant. Point being, you can count him among the preeminent base thieves active in the game today. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have not been nearly as productive on the basepaths. They ranked 21st in stolen bases in 2022, 22nd in 2023, and 27th just last season. Altogether, their 238 steals from 2022-24 ranked 25th, while their 73.7% success rate was the third-worst in the sport. Baseball Savant will tell you they were the worst base-stealing team in the league over those three years, with a collective -12 run value. Indeed, the Blue Jays rank as the worst base-stealing team in the Statcast era, with -20 base-stealing runs since the 2016 season. Perhaps it was the Platinum Glove defense that first caught Toronto’s eye, but there is no doubt the Blue Jays also wanted Giménez for his legs. It has been more than a decade since a Blue Jays player stole 30 bases in a season. The last Blue Jay to surpass 30 steals was Rajai Davis, who swiped 45 bags in 2013. Giménez has never stolen more than 30 bases in a season, although he reached exactly 30 in both 2023 and ‘24. Yet, with nine steals in 35 games, he is currently on pace for 42 by the end of the year. Keep the small sample in mind, but Giménez has been more aggressive so far with the Blue Jays than he was with the Guardians. He has averaged one stolen base attempt every 4.9 opportunities this season, using the calculation of stolen base opportunities (SBO) from Baseball Reference. In comparison, he averaged one attempt every 5.8 SBO in 2023 and one attempt every 6.8 SBO in ‘24. Something else to keep in mind is that Giménez is averaging slightly fewer stolen base opportunities per game this year than he did from 2023-24, presumably because he is slumping and therefore reaching base less often. However, his Statcast expected metrics offer reason for optimism that his slump won’t last forever. His .330 xOBP is significantly better than his .271 on-base percentage. It’s also meaningfully better than his .306 OBP and .307 xOBP from 2023-24. Giménez is already on pace to become the first Blue Jay in 12 years to swipe 40 bags. If he can bring his OBP up to the same range as his xOBP, it’s not far-fetched to suggest that he could surpass Davis’s 2012 and ‘13 stolen base totals (46 and 45, respectively). If he can pull that off, he’ll have stolen more bases in a season than any other Blue Jay in the 21st century. Now, a cynic might point out that Giménez has had stolen base success like this before. He had 35-game stretches with at least nine stolen bases in 2022, ‘23, and ‘24. The fact that he’s on a 42-steal pace right now is far from a guarantee that he’ll keep it up all year. I can’t disagree with that argument. However, for what it’s worth, this particular 35-game stretch is different from all the others. This is the first time Giménez has stolen nine bases in a 35-game stretch so early in the season. I can’t tell you why, but he always seems to heat up on the bases after the All-Star break. Take a look at his stolen base splits in each of the previous three years: Season First Half Second Half Steals Games Steals per 162 Steals Games Steals per 162 2022 7 78 14.5 13 39 54.0 2023 15 86 28.3 15 66 36.8 2024 15 88 27.6 15 67 36.3 This could certainly be a coincidence. It probably is. Nevertheless, the fact that Giménez is stealing this frequently so early in the season makes me feel more optimistic that he’s going to keep it up. Stolen bases are universally beloved by baseball fans. Not everyone likes the rule changes that led to an increase in stolen bases, but I’ve yet to meet anyone who thinks the game would be better with fewer steals. Unfortunately, Blue Jays fans have gotten the short end of the stolen base stick for far too long. Andrés Giménez alone cannot solve this team’s baserunning issues, but at least he can give the fanbase one great base-stealer to root for, the likes of which this city has not had since Rajai Davis left town. View full article

A resurgent George Springer has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, his hot bat keeps disappearing when the chips are down. Where would the Blue Jays be without George Springer? The veteran outfielder was Jays Centre’s Hitter of the Month for March/April, and his bat has stayed hot into May. In three games this month, he is 3-for-9 (.333) with a double, a home run, three walks, and a stolen base. Since Opening Day, Springer leads Blue Jays batters in FanGraphs WAR. His .927 OPS and 166 wRC+ trail only Tyler Heineman and Daulton Varsho, the two of whom combined have fewer than half as many plate appearances as Springer. Thanks to his consistent hitting, Springer also leads Blue Jays position players in Win Probability Added (per FanGraphs), a statistic that measures how much an individual player has increased or decreased his team’s chances of winning with each plate appearance. In other words, no hitter has helped the Blue Jays win games more than Springer. No surprises there. Yet, Springer doesn’t rank highly in every offensive category. In fact, he ranks last among Blue Jays hitters in FanGraphs’ clutch metric, which measures how much value a hitter has provided in higher leverage situations compared to what he would have offered in a neutral context. Compared to his overall performance, Springer has hit notably worse when the chips are down. In situations that FanGraphs considers low-leverage, Springer has gone 12-for-42 (.286) with a .912 OPS and a 162 wRC+. Seven of his 12 hits have gone for extra bases. Somehow, he has been even better in medium-leverage moments, with three doubles, two home runs, a .349 batting average, and a 197 wRC+. And then there’s his performance in high-leverage spots. In 13 high-leverage plate appearances, Springer has slashed (brace yourself) .222/.333/.222 with a 42 wRC+. Small sample or not, that’s disappointing. For the sake of easy comparison, here are Springer’s leverage splits in table form: Leverage PA Batting Average OPS wRC+ Low 49 .286 .912 162 Medium 53 .349 1.020 197 High 13 .222 .556 42 Here’s another way to break things down. Springer has a ridiculous 224 wRC+ in 64 plate appearances with the bases empty. Only Aaron Judge has a higher wRC+ in bases-empty situations (min. 50 PA). In contrast, Springer’s wRC+ with runners on is a mere 89. It’s even worse (37 wRC+) when those runners are in scoring position. Only one AL hitter, Vinnie Pasquantino of the Royals, has more plate appearances than Springer and a lower wRC+ with RISP. Baseball Savant’s run value (RV) metrics offer another way to contextualize Springer’s performance. He ranks among the top 10 batters (min. 400 pitches seen) in context-neutral RV per 100 pitches. That makes perfect sense, considering he ranks seventh among qualified batters in wRC+. However, his RV/100 falls dramatically when looking at the leveraged (i.e. context-dependent) version of the metric. Springer ranks 41st in leveraged RV/100, and his leveraged run value (.980 RV/100) is less than half of his context-neutral number (2.047 RV/100). A .980 RV/100 is still good production, but it’s underwhelming once you know how much higher that number could be. A ton of Springer’s big hits have been essentially wasted in less-than-opportune moments. Look at Springer in comparison to his former teammate Teoscar Hernández. Like Springer, Hernández is off to a hot start. He has an .840 OPS and a 157 wRC+. He also has a similar average leverage index (pLI) to Springer, which shows (roughly speaking) that the two have faced an equivalent number of high and low-leverage situations. Hernández, however, ranks among the top 10 NL batters with a 0.63 clutch score. That means he has been better (compared to his own performance) in higher-leverage spots. As a result, his 1.56 WPA is almost a full win better than Springer’s 0.68 WPA. Similarly, his leveraged RV/100 is about 2.5 times better than Springer’s. The surface-level stats tell us that Springer has been the better hitter this season. And he has. Even so, Hernández has provided significantly more offensive value to his team, all because of good timing. Poor timing helps to explain why Toronto ranks 22nd in MLB in wRC+ but only 26th in runs per game. The BaseRuns formula from FanGraphs suggests the Blue Jays deserve to have scored about 3.7 runs per game, but in reality, they have managed to score just over 3.5 runs per contest. Not only are the Blue Jays struggling, but they're not making the most of what few opportunities they create. Springer’s “unclutch” performance can’t explain all of this, but it might explain a lot. Without Springer, Toronto’s offense would be worse. Much worse. Their collective OPS would fall from .661 to .636, while their wRC+ would drop from 92 to 84. However, if you remove Springer from the data, the team’s collective clutch score rises from -0.22 to +0.21. In other words, the rest of the lineup, on average, has overperformed in higher leverage spots. Springer’s performance alone drags that number down by 43 points. The good news here is that context-dependent statistics aren’t predictive. There’s no evidence to suggest that certain players are consistently more “clutch” than others. Past success in high-leverage spots doesn’t predict future success in similar moments. So, Springer’s low clutch score isn’t a sign that he’s doing anything wrong. There is no reason to believe his struggles in higher-leverage spots will continue. Over a long season, these things tend to even themselves out. The bad news, however, is that Springer’s hot start almost certainly isn’t sustainable. We’re talking about a 12-year MLB veteran with a career 127 wRC+. His single-season high was a 155 wRC+ in 2019. From 2023-24, he posted a 100 wRC+ in 299 games. He’s 35 years old, turning 36 in September. Everything we know about the aging curve tells us his 166 wRC+ isn’t going to last. His .400 BABIP backs that up. It's beyond uncommon to see a player improve this much this late in his career. It's even more unusual to see a player maintain such a high BABIP over more than a few months. So, there is a pretty solid chance that Springer’s first 30 games in 2025 will also be his best 30 games in 2025. And while his strong performance has helped the Blue Jays keep their heads above water, there is no denying that they didn’t get nearly as much value out of his hot hitting as they could have. That’s not necessarily anyone’s fault, but it’s a shame all the same. George Springer’s performance so far in 2025 couldn’t have been better. But his timing couldn’t have been worse View full article