Outs Below Average: Visualizing George Springer’s Awful Defensive Metrics

When the Blue Jays signed a 31-year-old George Springer to a six-year contract before the 2021 season, they knew he wouldn't be their starting center fielder all six years. Center field had been his primary position with the Astros from 2017-20. While he was never a Gold Glove winner (or even a finalist), he played well enough to make all three All-Star Games in that span and earn MVP votes in three of those four years. So, the Jays anticipated he could play a solid center field for at least a couple more years before moving down the defensive spectrum. Then, he would hopefully become a plus defensive corner outfielder. After all, he was a Gold Glove finalist in the one full season he spent in right field in 2016, and, in theory, a fielder who can hold his own in center should be comfortably above average in a corner spot.

Things went more or less according to plan over the first four seasons of Springer's contract, at least as far as his glove was concerned. When healthy, he played a perfectly acceptable center field in 2021 and '22. Then, with Springer entering his age-33 campaign, Toronto went out and added center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, thereby relieving Springer of his center field duties and forming the best defensive outfield in the game. Springer wasn't the plus right fielder the Jays hoped he could be, but he was more than capable of playing the position and playing it almost every day. Indeed, his durability was more impressive than anything else; he played over 1,000 outfield innings in both 2023 and '24, something he had not done since his age-28 season in 2018. With Springer holding down the fort in right field as a complement to Varsho's and Kiermaier's elite performances, the Blue Jays' outfielders led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Outs Above Average (OAA), and Fielding Run Value (FRV) from 2023-24. 

Then came 2025. I don't mean to be too harsh on Springer. He's closer to 36 than 35; most players his age are no longer strong defenders. He's also enjoying a terrific season at the plate, and ultimately, if the Blue Jays have to put up with his defense every now and then to keep his bat in the lineup, so be it. Still, there's no ignoring how much of a liability he has been in the field. As I wrote last week, Springer ranks among the AL's top outfielders in numerous offensive categories. Yet, according to the numbers at FanGraphs, his negative defensive value (Def) cancels out his positive offensive contributions (Off). That's partly because he often plays DH, which comes with a harsh positional adjustment. The corner outfield spots have a negative adjustment as well. However, the biggest problem is that he ranks among the worst outfielders in the league in almost every defensive metric. None of this means he's been a bad player overall; it just means he's roughly average. While his power, plate discipline, and baserunning have all been excellent, his jumps, his range, and his arm have been equally impactful – only in the opposite direction.

I know that might seem hard to believe. Springer has hit 15 doubles and 10 home runs. He's driven in 32. His walk rate is a career-high 12.9%, and his OPS sits at .800. Just a handful of qualified AL outfielders have a higher OPS or wRC+. On top of that, Springer is 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts. What's more, he has only made one error all season. How could he possibly have cost the Blue Jays more with his glove than he's supplied with his bat? I'm here to explain.

Springer grades out as a defensive liability according to several metrics, including DRS (from Sports Info Solutions) and DRP (from Baseball Prospectus). However, I'm going to focus on Baseball Savant's FRV, because it's the most transparent and because it's the defensive metric that feeds into FanGraphs WAR. 

According to FRV, an average player would have saved the Blue Jays seven more runs than Springer this season. Only one outfielder, Nick Castellanos (-9), has cost his team more, and he has played about twice as many innings. For outfielders, FRV is the combination of OAA (converted to runs above average) and arm value. Springer ranks toward the bottom of the pack in both metrics this year, with -6 OAA and -2 throwing runs.

Let's start with OAA. Taking into account the distance and direction the outfielder has to travel and how long the ball hangs in the air, Statcast calculates the catch probability of every ball that comes an outfielder's way. This number is used to credit or debit outfielders for the plays they do or do not make. For instance, if a ball has a 95% catch probability, an outfielder would earn 0.05 OAA for making the catch, and he would lose 0.95 OAA for not making the catch. In the same way, if a ball has a 5% catch probability, an outfielder would earn 0.95 OAA for making the catch, or he would lose 0.05 OAA for not making the catch. If all those percentages and decimals are too confusing, think of it like this: An outfielder will be heavily penalized for missing a can of corn and highly rewarded for making a highlight-reel play. Conversely, the penalty for missing a difficult play is low, as is the reward for making an easy catch.

Springer has a 66.7% success rate (6-for-9) on plays with a catch probability between 91% and 95% (Statcast calls these "one-star opportunities"). That's not good. He is one of just six players to have missed three or more one-star catches this season, and the other five have all had more opportunities. No outfielder (min. five opportunities) has a worse one-star success rate.

Now, as promised, let's get to the visuals. Here are the three one-star catch opportunities that Springer has failed to convert this year:

One could make excuses for Springer on any of those plays, some more defensible than others. Regardless, simply considering (a) how long each of those balls stays in the air and (b) the distance he has to run to track each one down, it's not hard to understand why Statcast sees them all as high-probability catches. You could say the first was just a miscommunication, the second just a misread, and the third just a misplaced glove. You also could point out that all three of those plays came in the first two weeks of the season; perhaps he was just rusty. Yet, even if you're willing to overlook his mistakes, the fact of the matter is that if Springer got better jumps and covered more ground, he would have made all three of those plays.

And it gets worse. The Statcast catch probability leaderboard doesn't even include plays with a catch probability above 95%, because we take it for granted that capable outfielders will make those plays (well, at least 96% of the time). So far in 2025, Springer has flubbed not one but two plays with an estimated catch probability of 99%. Here they are:

Again, you could make excuses for Springer in both instances, and I'm not trying to say those excuses would be unfounded. The first clip shows another three-way miscommunication. The second shows him losing a ball in the sun. So, it might be a tad harsh that he's accumulated close to -5 OAA on the five misplays I've shown you. 

Yet, this brings us to another part of the problem: Springer hasn't made any great catches to atone for the ones he's missed. Even the best defenders make mistakes now and then. No one is immune to a lapse in judgment – or the blinding rays of the sun. However, good defenders can make up for their misplays. In the same way that a hitter can make fans forget an embarrassing pickoff with a big home run in his next at-bat, a defender can erase the negative value of a dropped one-star catch by converting a five-star opportunity. Springer hasn't done that. He has missed both of his five-star opportunities (0-25% catch probability) and both of his four-star opportunities (26-50%). He has also missed a pair of three-star opportunities (51-75%) and a two-star chance (76-90% catch probability). Here's what all of those missed catches look like, in descending order of difficulty:

Meanwhile, these are Springer's most impressive catches of the year, according to Statcast:

Both of those were great catches, and I could watch them on loop. Yet, the first one, which took Springer into the tarp at Fenway, had a catch probability of 55%. The second, which saw him dive and tumble to secure the ball, had a catch probability of 75%. In other words, neither play was quite as difficult as Springer made it look. A more skilled outfielder defender might have made both plays without getting his uniform so dirty. 

The other half of the FRV equation is what happens on balls that drop for hits. The methodology here is a little less straightforward, but in essence, Statcast uses inputs such as the runner's speed, the runner's position on the bases, and the outfielder's distance from both the ball and bases to calculate "an estimated success probability" for every opportunity a runner has to take an extra base on a batted ball. To calculate a fielder's "arm value," his actual success rate is compared to the estimated success rate on all of his opportunities. An outfielder whose actual success rate is higher than his estimated success rate will have a positive arm value, and vice versa.  

While Baseball Savant calls this metric "arm value," it's about more than just throwing the baseball. An outfielder's effort to prevent runners from taking extra bases starts the moment he takes his first step. Indeed, watch some of Springer's most costly plays according to the arm value leaderboard, and you'll see that the problem is often his slow instincts, inefficient routes, and poor positioning, rather than his arm strength:

Those four plays alone cost Springer close to a full run of arm value, and he has yet to make any truly great throws to nab a baserunner and earn back that run. All told, he has a -2 arm value on the season. Only one outfielder, Mickey Moniak of the Rockies, is at -3. 

So, this is how George Springer's poor defense is cancelling out the value of his resurgent performance at the plate. You can make excuses for almost every individual misplay, but those excuses become less and less convincing with each subsequent fumble. He has been seeing more time at DH lately, but eventually, once Anthony Santander returns from the IL, he's going to have to play more outfield. Hopefully, he'll make fewer mistakes – and at least one great catch and one great throw. If his defense can just be passable instead of terrible, he can let his bat do the rest of the talking. 

Defensive stats updated prior to games on June 22.