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Leo Morgenstern

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  1. Earlier this week, a report from the Associated Press confirmed the price of this year’s qualifying offer: $22.025 million. That number, the average of the 125 highest MLB salaries in 2025, is just under a million dollars higher than last year’s $21.05 million QO. The qualifying offer system gives teams a way to receive draft pick compensation for the loss of a player in free agency. If a team extends the QO to a player who rejects it and signs with another club, his original team will receive a compensatory draft selection. The placement of the draft pick depends on the team in question. Because the Blue Jays will pay the luxury tax this season, their additional selection would come after the end of the fourth round. The qualifying offer system also penalizes teams for signing free agents who rejected a qualifying offer. As CBT payors, the Blue Jays would be penalized particularly harshly. If they sign a free agent who rejected another team’s QO this winter, they would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in next summer’s draft, in addition to $1 million of international bonus pool space for the upcoming signing period. If they sign a second free agent who rejected the QO, they would also sacrifice their third- and sixth-highest draft picks. The Blue Jays signed their first QO free agent in the 2014-15 offseason, when they brought in Russell Martin on a five-year, $82 million deal. (His former team, the Pirates, would end up drafting Gold Glove winner Ke'Bryan Hayes with their compensatory pick.) That same offseason, the Jays also extended their first QO. They made the offer to Melky Cabrera, who rejected it and ultimately signed with the White Sox. The Blue Jays have since extended qualifying offers to six more players: Marco Estrada, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, and Matt Chapman. Estrada and Bautista rejected the QO but later re-signed with Toronto, while Encarnacion, Semien, Ray, and Chapman signed elsewhere, securing compensation for the Jays. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have signed three more QO free agents since Martin: George Springer, Chris Bassitt, and, most recently, Anthony Santander. This year’s deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers – five days after the conclusion of the World Series – will be here before we know it. So, let’s talk through what decisions Ross Atkins and Co. will (and won't) have to make before then. Will Receive Qualifying Offer Bo Bichette There is no question the Blue Jays will extend a qualifying offer to Bo Bichette, and there’s no question he’s going to reject it. Still 27 for another five months, Bichette will be one of the younger free agents on the market, and he’s coming off what was arguably the best offensive season of his career. He’ll be looking for a contract akin to the seven-year, $182 million pact Willy Adames signed last winter. Not Eligible for Qualifying Offer Shane Bieber Chris Bassitt Max Scherzer Seranthony Domínguez Ty France Isiah Kiner-Falefa Making things nice and easy for me, the rest of Toronto’s impending free agents are ineligible to receive the qualifying offer. Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt each received qualifying offers earlier in their careers; Scherzer from the Tigers in 2014, before he signed his seven-year, $210 million deal with the Nationals, and Bassitt from the Mets in 2022, before he signed his three-year, $63 million deal with the Blue Jays. As for Shane Bieber, Seranthony Domínguez, Ty France, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, they are all ineligible because they came to the Blue Jays mid-season. To qualify for a QO, a player must have spent the entire season on his team’s roster. With that said, Bieber and Bassitt are the only ones out of this group who would have had any chance of receiving a QO anyway. Bieber was able to sign a two-year, $26 million deal last year despite pitching just 12 innings in 2024 before Tommy John surgery ended his season. Now that he’s proven he’s healthy, he’s a safe bet to decline his $16 million player option for 2026, and he should be able to command a significantly higher guarantee on the open market. Meanwhile, Bassitt is one of just nine pitchers to have made at least 30 starts and qualified for the ERA title in each of the past three seasons. Only six pitchers have thrown more innings with a lower ERA in that time. In other words, he has given the Blue Jays exactly what they signed up for at a $21 million AAV three years ago. So, it would be perfectly reasonable for the team to offer him one more year at just over $22 million – especially since they wouldn’t have to give up a draft pick or any international bonus pool space this time. Of course, for precisely the reason the Jays had to sacrifice their second-highest draft pick and $500,000 of international bonus pool space in 2023, this whole point is moot. A player can only receive the QO once in his career, so Bassitt is off the hook.
  2. Rawlings revealed the finalists for the 2025 Gold Glove Awards this morning, naming three defenders at each position in each league. Five Toronto Blue Jays players were announced as finalists in five different categories. Yet, somehow, someway, the Jays have a total of six finalists, tied with the Chicago Cubs for the most of any team. Let me explain. Alejandro Kirk is a finalist at catcher, and Andrés Giménez is a finalist at second base. Simple enough. But then things get more complicated. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ty France are both finalists at first base. Meanwhile, Ernie Clement is a finalist as a third baseman and as a utility player. The Blue Jays are the only team with two finalists at one position and the only team to have a player who is a finalist at multiple positions. To make things even more confusing, Giménez shouldn't even be eligible, according to the criteria laid out on the Rawlings website. He didn't play enough innings before the cutoff date. Does this mean he is, in fact, eligible after all? Maybe. But this wouldn't be the first time a player was named a finalist for an award he couldn't win. For example, Bryce Harper was named a Silver Slugger finalist in 2022, despite not having played the minimum number of games to qualify. So, the Blue Jays have two finalists at first base, a possibly ineligible finalist at second base, and a finalist at third base who is also their finalist for the utility Gold Glove. What is this, an Abbott and Costello routine? Featured image courtesy of Mark Smith, Imagn Images. View full rumor
  3. Rawlings revealed the finalists for the 2025 Gold Glove Awards this morning, naming three defenders at each position in each league. Five Toronto Blue Jays players were announced as finalists in five different categories. Yet, somehow, someway, the Jays have a total of six finalists, tied with the Chicago Cubs for the most of any team. Let me explain. Alejandro Kirk is a finalist at catcher, and Andrés Giménez is a finalist at second base. Simple enough. But then things get more complicated. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ty France are both finalists at first base. Meanwhile, Ernie Clement is a finalist as a third baseman and as a utility player. The Blue Jays are the only team with two finalists at one position and the only team to have a player who is a finalist at multiple positions. To make things even more confusing, Giménez shouldn't even be eligible, according to the criteria laid out on the Rawlings website. He didn't play enough innings before the cutoff date. Does this mean he is, in fact, eligible after all? Maybe. But this wouldn't be the first time a player was named a finalist for an award he couldn't win. For example, Bryce Harper was named a Silver Slugger finalist in 2022, despite not having played the minimum number of games to qualify. So, the Blue Jays have two finalists at first base, a possibly ineligible finalist at second base, and a finalist at third base who is also their finalist for the utility Gold Glove. What is this, an Abbott and Costello routine? Featured image courtesy of Mark Smith, Imagn Images.
  4. How often has the visiting team won the first two games of a best-of-seven postseason series? Thanks to Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling, I can tell you: 28 times. How often has that team with a 2-0 lead gone on to win the series? Thanks again to Zwelling's research, I can disappoint you with the answer: 25 times. So, history isn't on the Blue Jays' side. Even if their chances of winning each game going forward were exactly 50%, their odds of winning the series would be less than 20%. And now Seattle has home-field advantage. They also have the pitching advantage, with George Kirby taking on Shane Bieber tonight and Luis Castillo facing Max Scherzer on Wednesday. Bryan Woo is still a possibility for a potential Game 5. On top of that, Seattle has stolen Toronto's momentum. That offense that terrorized the Yankees in the ALDS vanished when the Mariners came to town. Now, the Blue Jays need to take two of three at T-Mobile Park to stay alive. Ideally, they'll win all three and come back home with the upper hand. It seems like a daunting task, and it is, but it's hardly impossible. Need some reassurance? Just look at the most recent five games the Blue Jays played against the Mariners during the regular season. The Jays were in a funk when they last visited Seattle this past May. They had gone 6-12 over the previous three weeks, dating back to their first matchup with the Mariners at the Rogers Centre. When the M's came to town in April, the Blue Jays won the first game 3-1 but lost the next two 4-8 and 3-8. Ignore the first game of the series and note that after that, the Jays lost two games in a row to the Mariners at home by a total of nine runs. Sound familiar? It should, because that's exactly what just happened. Now, flash forward to May. At that time, the Blue Jays were in a much worse rut than they find themselves in right now. Back then, we were all wondering if the Jays were ever going to score some runs (oh, how naive we were). So, what happened in that three-game set in the Emerald City? The Blue Jays came alive. They swept the series, winning 6-3, 6-3, and 9-1. It marked the first time all year they scored five or more runs in three straight games. It felt like a turning point in the season. In hindsight, it most definitely was. The Blue Jays we're watching right now aren't the same as the team that swept Seattle in May. They don't have Bo Bichette (a key player in that series), but they do have a healthy Andrés Giménez and Anthony Santander, and a reinvigorated Davis Schneider. More importantly, their pitching staff is in much better shape, thanks to a healthy Max Scherzer, a thrice-promoted Trey Yesavage, and the trade deadline acquisitions of Shane Bieber, Louis Varland, and Seranthony Domínguez. Of course, the Mariners are better now too. They have a Josh Naylor and a Eugenio Suárez that they didn't have before, and with a healthier rotation, they won't have to start Logan Evans this time around. Still, that only means we're in for a better fight from both sides. The Blue Jays are in a tough spot. I can't deny that. But like Nathan Lukes said after Game 2, they have been in positions like this before. That doesn't mean they will pull through, but it proves they can, just like those other three out of 28 teams that lost the first two games of a best-of-seven at home and still found a way to win the series. We all know it ain't over 'til it's over, and this one certainly isn't over yet.
  5. How often has the visiting team won the first two games of a best-of-seven postseason series? Thanks to Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling, I can tell you: 28 times. How often has that team with a 2-0 lead gone on to win the series? Thanks again to Zwelling's research, I can disappoint you with the answer: 25 times. So, history isn't on the Blue Jays' side. Even if their chances of winning each game going forward were exactly 50%, their odds of winning the series would be less than 20%. And now Seattle has home-field advantage. They also have the pitching advantage, with George Kirby taking on Shane Bieber tonight and Luis Castillo facing Max Scherzer on Wednesday. Bryan Woo is still a possibility for a potential Game 5. On top of that, Seattle has stolen Toronto's momentum. That offense that terrorized the Yankees in the ALDS vanished when the Mariners came to town. Now, the Blue Jays need to take two of three at T-Mobile Park to stay alive. Ideally, they'll win all three and come back home with the upper hand. It seems like a daunting task, and it is, but it's hardly impossible. Need some reassurance? Just look at the most recent five games the Blue Jays played against the Mariners during the regular season. The Jays were in a funk when they last visited Seattle this past May. They had gone 6-12 over the previous three weeks, dating back to their first matchup with the Mariners at the Rogers Centre. When the M's came to town in April, the Blue Jays won the first game 3-1 but lost the next two 4-8 and 3-8. Ignore the first game of the series and note that after that, the Jays lost two games in a row to the Mariners at home by a total of nine runs. Sound familiar? It should, because that's exactly what just happened. Now, flash forward to May. At that time, the Blue Jays were in a much worse rut than they find themselves in right now. Back then, we were all wondering if the Jays were ever going to score some runs (oh, how naive we were). So, what happened in that three-game set in the Emerald City? The Blue Jays came alive. They swept the series, winning 6-3, 6-3, and 9-1. It marked the first time all year they scored five or more runs in three straight games. It felt like a turning point in the season. In hindsight, it most definitely was. The Blue Jays we're watching right now aren't the same as the team that swept Seattle in May. They don't have Bo Bichette (a key player in that series), but they do have a healthy Andrés Giménez and Anthony Santander, and a reinvigorated Davis Schneider. More importantly, their pitching staff is in much better shape, thanks to a healthy Max Scherzer, a thrice-promoted Trey Yesavage, and the trade deadline acquisitions of Shane Bieber, Louis Varland, and Seranthony Domínguez. Of course, the Mariners are better now too. They have a Josh Naylor and a Eugenio Suárez that they didn't have before, and with a healthier rotation, they won't have to start Logan Evans this time around. Still, that only means we're in for a better fight from both sides. The Blue Jays are in a tough spot. I can't deny that. But like Nathan Lukes said after Game 2, they have been in positions like this before. That doesn't mean they will pull through, but it proves they can, just like those other three out of 28 teams that lost the first two games of a best-of-seven at home and still found a way to win the series. We all know it ain't over 'til it's over, and this one certainly isn't over yet. View full article
  6. According to a report from The Athletic's Brittany Ghiroli, Toronto Blue Jays executive James Click was one of "at least three candidates" the Colorado Rockies interviewed to be their newest "head of baseball operations." Click was the Houston Astros' general manager from 2020-22. Houston made the playoffs in all three seasons of his front office tenure and won the World Series in his final year with the club. Following his surprising departure from the Astros, he accepted a job as the Blue Jays' vice president of baseball strategy, a role he has held for the past three seasons. There was a time not so long ago when Click was a popular choice among fans to succeed Ross Atkins as Toronto's GM. However, considering the team's success this season, it's hard to imagine Atkins is going anywhere any time soon. Featured image courtesy of Lucas Peltier, Imagn Images. View full rumor
  7. According to a report from The Athletic's Brittany Ghiroli, Toronto Blue Jays executive James Click was one of "at least three candidates" the Colorado Rockies interviewed to be their newest "head of baseball operations." Click was the Houston Astros' general manager from 2020-22. Houston made the playoffs in all three seasons of his front office tenure and won the World Series in his final year with the club. Following his surprising departure from the Astros, he accepted a job as the Blue Jays' vice president of baseball strategy, a role he has held for the past three seasons. There was a time not so long ago when Click was a popular choice among fans to succeed Ross Atkins as Toronto's GM. However, considering the team's success this season, it's hard to imagine Atkins is going anywhere any time soon. Featured image courtesy of Lucas Peltier, Imagn Images.
  8. Nathan Lukes almost didn't play on Monday. Of course, it wouldn't have made much of a difference, as the Blue Jays flopped their way to a 10-3 loss. But yesterday's pounding would have only been even harder to watch without Lukes in the lineup. The outfielder exited early in Game 1 of the ALCS against the Mariners. He fouled a 96-mph fastball off his knee in his first at-bat against Bryce Miller and left in the fourth after briefly trying to play through the pain. Although he avoided significant injury, it would have been more than reasonable to expect John Schneider to give him the day off to rest and recover. Yet, the skipper made it clear that Lukes would play as long as the training staff gave him the a-okay, and indeed, Lukes was there when Schneider released his starting lineup, batting second and playing right field. As it turns out? Thank goodness. Lukes recorded three hits in Game 2, as many as all of his teammates combined. His performance moved him into first place on the team in Win Probability Added this postseason, and his FanGraphs Clutch score ranks second in the entire playoff field. He is 7-for-17 (.412) with a .974 OPS in October, and he's been even better in the biggest moments. On Monday, Lukes directly contributed to all three runs the Blue Jays scored, with a run, an RBI, and, well... whatever you want to call this: Ignoring context, this might be my favorite play of the postseason so far. The fact that it almost didn't happen at all makes it all the more amusing. Let's start at the very beginning. Gilbert delivers the pitch. Lukes sends it straight into the dirt, but hard enough that it takes a high bounce toward first base. You can see the disappointment on his face as he drops his bat, puts his head down, and starts running to first. Little does he know... Gilbert's initial reaction is more entertaining, even though you can't see his face. Due to his long limbs and atypical motion, he's already one of the game's more interesting pitchers to watch. On this play, however, you can see the moment he realizes he has to snap out of his extended follow-through and run to cover first base. Here it is in GIF form: And here's a screenshot of the moment I think he realized he needed to drop that leg and start running: Finally, here it is side-by-side with the previous pitch in the at-bat: That brief moment of panic you can see on the right perfectly foreshadows what's to come. The ball was closer to first base than second, but not by a ton, and second baseman Jorge Polanco was playing well over to the right side. In other words, he could have easily fielded the ball and thrown to Josh Naylor at first. Except Naylor wasn't at first. He was barrelling toward the baseball himself. I've never been inches away from a charging Josh Naylor, but I can't blame Polanco for backing off and avoiding a collision. With the ball in his glove, it was time for Naylor's second questionable decision (perhaps he was trying too hard to impress his fellow Canadians in the stands?). Lukes was still seven long strides away from first, but instead of pausing for even a moment to steady himself, Naylor kept on running and delivered a back-handed flip in the vague direction of Gilbert, who was still scrambling to the bag. The result was a throw that even Gilbert's elite extending arm could not reach: But wait, because that angle doesn't do justice to Gilbert's flailing attempt to reel the ball in. He sticks his arm back as far as it can go, but at the same time, his forward momentum carries him into the air. With his arms outstretched, he looks like a bird taking flight: Meanwhile, all Polanco can do is watch. The footage is blurry, but this is an "oh sh*t" face if I've ever seen one: As for Lukes, he narrowly avoids getting hit by Naylor's throw and even more narrowly avoids a collision with Gilbert. Yet, after he watches the ball sail into foul territory and decides to make a break for second, he has no more patience for anything in his way, namely, first base umpire Alfonso Márquez: The last thing I really enjoyed about this play, aside from the obvious – George Springer scored, and Lukes replaced him in scoring position – was the very end. After Springer crossed the plate and Lukes jogged into second, the camera turned to Naylor retrieving the ball. I couldn't help but conjure up the sad mental image of a kid without a dog to play fetch with, who has to throw a ball and then go pick it up himself. Except, of course, this was a grown man on a baseball field, and considering how badly he punished the Blue Jays throughout the rest of the game, I feel no remorse laughing at his misfortune. The first two games of the ALCS didn't go the way the Blue Jays hoped they would. That's just a fact. Thankfully, even at the most disheartening of times, baseball has a way of making us smile. Nathan Lukes turned an injury scare into a huge game, and the cherry on top was a truly entertaining "RBI" reach-on-error. The Blue Jays may have disappointed on Monday, but at least Lukes made it worth tuning in.
  9. Nathan Lukes almost didn't play on Monday. Of course, it wouldn't have made much of a difference, as the Blue Jays flopped their way to a 10-3 loss. But yesterday's pounding would have only been even harder to watch without Lukes in the lineup. The outfielder exited early in Game 1 of the ALCS against the Mariners. He fouled a 96-mph fastball off his knee in his first at-bat against Bryce Miller and left in the fourth after briefly trying to play through the pain. Although he avoided significant injury, it would have been more than reasonable to expect John Schneider to give him the day off to rest and recover. Yet, the skipper made it clear that Lukes would play as long as the training staff gave him the a-okay, and indeed, Lukes was there when Schneider released his starting lineup, batting second and playing right field. As it turns out? Thank goodness. Lukes recorded three hits in Game 2, as many as all of his teammates combined. His performance moved him into first place on the team in Win Probability Added this postseason, and his FanGraphs Clutch score ranks second in the entire playoff field. He is 7-for-17 (.412) with a .974 OPS in October, and he's been even better in the biggest moments. On Monday, Lukes directly contributed to all three runs the Blue Jays scored, with a run, an RBI, and, well... whatever you want to call this: Ignoring context, this might be my favorite play of the postseason so far. The fact that it almost didn't happen at all makes it all the more amusing. Let's start at the very beginning. Gilbert delivers the pitch. Lukes sends it straight into the dirt, but hard enough that it takes a high bounce toward first base. You can see the disappointment on his face as he drops his bat, puts his head down, and starts running to first. Little does he know... Gilbert's initial reaction is more entertaining, even though you can't see his face. Due to his long limbs and atypical motion, he's already one of the game's more interesting pitchers to watch. On this play, however, you can see the moment he realizes he has to snap out of his extended follow-through and run to cover first base. Here it is in GIF form: And here's a screenshot of the moment I think he realized he needed to drop that leg and start running: Finally, here it is side-by-side with the previous pitch in the at-bat: That brief moment of panic you can see on the right perfectly foreshadows what's to come. The ball was closer to first base than second, but not by a ton, and second baseman Jorge Polanco was playing well over to the right side. In other words, he could have easily fielded the ball and thrown to Josh Naylor at first. Except Naylor wasn't at first. He was barrelling toward the baseball himself. I've never been inches away from a charging Josh Naylor, but I can't blame Polanco for backing off and avoiding a collision. With the ball in his glove, it was time for Naylor's second questionable decision (perhaps he was trying too hard to impress his fellow Canadians in the stands?). Lukes was still seven long strides away from first, but instead of pausing for even a moment to steady himself, Naylor kept on running and delivered a back-handed flip in the vague direction of Gilbert, who was still scrambling to the bag. The result was a throw that even Gilbert's elite extending arm could not reach: But wait, because that angle doesn't do justice to Gilbert's flailing attempt to reel the ball in. He sticks his arm back as far as it can go, but at the same time, his forward momentum carries him into the air. With his arms outstretched, he looks like a bird taking flight: Meanwhile, all Polanco can do is watch. The footage is blurry, but this is an "oh sh*t" face if I've ever seen one: As for Lukes, he narrowly avoids getting hit by Naylor's throw and even more narrowly avoids a collision with Gilbert. Yet, after he watches the ball sail into foul territory and decides to make a break for second, he has no more patience for anything in his way, namely, first base umpire Alfonso Márquez: The last thing I really enjoyed about this play, aside from the obvious – George Springer scored, and Lukes replaced him in scoring position – was the very end. After Springer crossed the plate and Lukes jogged into second, the camera turned to Naylor retrieving the ball. I couldn't help but conjure up the sad mental image of a kid without a dog to play fetch with, who has to throw a ball and then go pick it up himself. Except, of course, this was a grown man on a baseball field, and considering how badly he punished the Blue Jays throughout the rest of the game, I feel no remorse laughing at his misfortune. The first two games of the ALCS didn't go the way the Blue Jays hoped they would. That's just a fact. Thankfully, even at the most disheartening of times, baseball has a way of making us smile. Nathan Lukes turned an injury scare into a huge game, and the cherry on top was a truly entertaining "RBI" reach-on-error. The Blue Jays may have disappointed on Monday, but at least Lukes made it worth tuning in. View full article
  10. Nathan Lukes initially stayed in Sunday night's ALCS Game 1 after fouling a ball off his right knee, but the Blue Jays later removed him from the contest and sent him for testing. After the game, manager John Schneider told reporters that Lukes went for X-rays and a CT scan, which both came back negative for a fracture. While this is certainly good news for the club, Lukes is still dealing with pain, so it's not yet clear if he'll be able to play in Monday's Game 2. However, Schneider suggested the outfielder will be in the lineup as long as he is medically cleared. The lefty-batting Lukes is 4-for-13 with two doubles and five RBI through five games this October. Featured image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images. View full rumor
  11. Nathan Lukes initially stayed in Sunday night's ALCS Game 1 after fouling a ball off his right knee, but the Blue Jays later removed him from the contest and sent him for testing. After the game, manager John Schneider told reporters that Lukes went for X-rays and a CT scan, which both came back negative for a fracture. While this is certainly good news for the club, Lukes is still dealing with pain, so it's not yet clear if he'll be able to play in Monday's Game 2. However, Schneider suggested the outfielder will be in the lineup as long as he is medically cleared. The lefty-batting Lukes is 4-for-13 with two doubles and five RBI through five games this October. Featured image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images.
  12. Thank you! I guess unfortunately, it's a lot harder for a starting pitcher to have a Joe Carter-type moment. But if they win it all and Gausman is the MVP, he's definitely got a shot at it someday!
  13. When Roy Halladay passed away in 2017, a 26-year-old Kevin Gausman expressed regret that he never got to know the pitcher he grew up idolizing. “One of my biggest regrets looking back is I didn't reach out to him and get his number,” Gausman told MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli. But Gausman did get Halladay’s number, albeit in a different way. After wearing numbers 37 and 39 on the back of his jersey through his first five seasons with the Baltimore Orioles, he made the switch to 34 in 2018. Blue Jays fans will always remember Halladay as number 32. That's the only retired number on the Rogers Centre’s Level of Excellence. But Halladay switched to 34 when he came to Philadelphia, where 32 was already retired in honor of Steve Carlton. Now, of course, the Phillies have retired number 34 as well. In hindsight, the Gausman-Halladay connection is clear as day. The Blue Jays have had some terrific individual pitching seasons since Halladay left in 2010. There was Alek Manoah in 2022. Robbie Ray in 2021. Hyun Jin Ryu in 2020. Three years, three different Blue Jays finishing top three for the AL Cy Young. Yet, according to FanGraphs' version of Wins Above Replacement, no pitcher has had a better season for the Blue Jays since the days of Halladay than Kevin Gausman. His 5.5 fWAR in 2022 ranks first. His 5.3 fWAR in 2023 ranks second. His 4.1 fWAR in 2025 ranks third. But none of that has anything to do with Gausman taking Halladay's number. Gausman changed his number long before he could have known he'd one day become the Blue Jays' best pitcher since Halladay. It was four years before he signed his nine-figure deal with Toronto. His journey still had to take him through another half-season with the Orioles and brief stints with the Braves, Reds, and Giants before the Blue Jays came calling. To find Gausman’s first connection to Halladay, you'd have to drive about 2,500 kilometers southwest from the GTA. It didn't have anything to do with where either of them made their names. It was about where they each got their start: Colorado. “Guys from Colorado have to go through a lot just to get to professional baseball, let alone the major leagues,” Gausman told Ghiroli. “He grew up 30 minutes from where I grew up and [was] one of the best pitchers, not just from Colorado or his team, but in our generation…He really put us on the map.” According to Baseball Reference, 108 MLB players have been born in Colorado. Only 66 of them debuted before Halladay in 1998. It should be no surprise that Halladay is the most accomplished major leaguer from the Centennial State. Aside from Halladay, however, no Colorado native has faced more batters (slash taken more trips to the plate) than Gausman. And aside from Halladay, no Colorado native has compiled more FanGraphs WAR. I like to think Gausman has had the kind of career his fellow Coloradan would admire. Dating back to his first proper season in 2014, only two pitchers have started more games than Gausman. Only one has thrown more innings. None has him beat in both categories. The definition of "durable" today isn't the same as it was at Halladay's peak. Yet, if there were a picture next to the "durability" entry in the mid-2000s baseball dictionary, it would have been Halladay's headshot. Two decades later, it would be Gausman's bearded mug. Halladay's age-34 season, with number 34 on his back, was arguably the best of his career. Gausman can't say the same. But he did make the best start of his career in September, a dominant shutout evoking memories of the many such starts Halladay made from the very same mound. It has also been the most prolific season of Gausman's big league tenure, and in that way, the most Halladay-esque. He set a new career-high in innings pitched on the final day of the regular season. Tonight, he'll almost certainly set a new career-high in postseason innings, too. And 34 isn't just Gausman's age and Gausman's number. It's also the highest number of starts he's made in a single year. He started 34 regular season games for the Orioles in 2017. He started 33 in the regular season and one in the playoffs for the Giants in 2021. Tonight will mark his 34th start of 2025. If he leads the Blue Jays to victory, he can all but guarantee he'll get to make a 35th as well. It's remarkably impressive. We're already talking about the most durable pitcher of the past decade, and, three months away from his 35th birthday, he looks more indestructible than ever. Of course, Halladay, too, looked indestructible until he didn't. Gausman's durability is cause for celebration. But all that wear and tear is also cause for concern. Yet, aside from his age – which, I'll remind you, is still within Statistics Canada's "young adult" range – Gausman has given us absolutely no reason to worry. So, I'm hoping that here is where the Halladay parallels end. Halladay was 34 when he suffered a heartbreaking postseason loss. It was the beginning of the end of his career. Gausman, however, still has a chance to do what his Colorado idol never could: hoist a World Series trophy. And the way he pitches tonight in start number 34 will go a long way toward helping him reach that goal.
  14. When Roy Halladay passed away in 2017, a 26-year-old Kevin Gausman expressed regret that he never got to know the pitcher he grew up idolizing. “One of my biggest regrets looking back is I didn't reach out to him and get his number,” Gausman told MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli. But Gausman did get Halladay’s number, albeit in a different way. After wearing numbers 37 and 39 on the back of his jersey through his first five seasons with the Baltimore Orioles, he made the switch to 34 in 2018. Blue Jays fans will always remember Halladay as number 32. That's the only retired number on the Rogers Centre’s Level of Excellence. But Halladay switched to 34 when he came to Philadelphia, where 32 was already retired in honor of Steve Carlton. Now, of course, the Phillies have retired number 34 as well. In hindsight, the Gausman-Halladay connection is clear as day. The Blue Jays have had some terrific individual pitching seasons since Halladay left in 2010. There was Alek Manoah in 2022. Robbie Ray in 2021. Hyun Jin Ryu in 2020. Three years, three different Blue Jays finishing top three for the AL Cy Young. Yet, according to FanGraphs' version of Wins Above Replacement, no pitcher has had a better season for the Blue Jays since the days of Halladay than Kevin Gausman. His 5.5 fWAR in 2022 ranks first. His 5.3 fWAR in 2023 ranks second. His 4.1 fWAR in 2025 ranks third. But none of that has anything to do with Gausman taking Halladay's number. Gausman changed his number long before he could have known he'd one day become the Blue Jays' best pitcher since Halladay. It was four years before he signed his nine-figure deal with Toronto. His journey still had to take him through another half-season with the Orioles and brief stints with the Braves, Reds, and Giants before the Blue Jays came calling. To find Gausman’s first connection to Halladay, you'd have to drive about 2,500 kilometers southwest from the GTA. It didn't have anything to do with where either of them made their names. It was about where they each got their start: Colorado. “Guys from Colorado have to go through a lot just to get to professional baseball, let alone the major leagues,” Gausman told Ghiroli. “He grew up 30 minutes from where I grew up and [was] one of the best pitchers, not just from Colorado or his team, but in our generation…He really put us on the map.” According to Baseball Reference, 108 MLB players have been born in Colorado. Only 66 of them debuted before Halladay in 1998. It should be no surprise that Halladay is the most accomplished major leaguer from the Centennial State. Aside from Halladay, however, no Colorado native has faced more batters (slash taken more trips to the plate) than Gausman. And aside from Halladay, no Colorado native has compiled more FanGraphs WAR. I like to think Gausman has had the kind of career his fellow Coloradan would admire. Dating back to his first proper season in 2014, only two pitchers have started more games than Gausman. Only one has thrown more innings. None has him beat in both categories. The definition of "durable" today isn't the same as it was at Halladay's peak. Yet, if there were a picture next to the "durability" entry in the mid-2000s baseball dictionary, it would have been Halladay's headshot. Two decades later, it would be Gausman's bearded mug. Halladay's age-34 season, with number 34 on his back, was arguably the best of his career. Gausman can't say the same. But he did make the best start of his career in September, a dominant shutout evoking memories of the many such starts Halladay made from the very same mound. It has also been the most prolific season of Gausman's big league tenure, and in that way, the most Halladay-esque. He set a new career-high in innings pitched on the final day of the regular season. Tonight, he'll almost certainly set a new career-high in postseason innings, too. And 34 isn't just Gausman's age and Gausman's number. It's also the highest number of starts he's made in a single year. He started 34 regular season games for the Orioles in 2017. He started 33 in the regular season and one in the playoffs for the Giants in 2021. Tonight will mark his 34th start of 2025. If he leads the Blue Jays to victory, he can all but guarantee he'll get to make a 35th as well. It's remarkably impressive. We're already talking about the most durable pitcher of the past decade, and, three months away from his 35th birthday, he looks more indestructible than ever. Of course, Halladay, too, looked indestructible until he didn't. Gausman's durability is cause for celebration. But all that wear and tear is also cause for concern. Yet, aside from his age – which, I'll remind you, is still within Statistics Canada's "young adult" range – Gausman has given us absolutely no reason to worry. So, I'm hoping that here is where the Halladay parallels end. Halladay was 34 when he suffered a heartbreaking postseason loss. It was the beginning of the end of his career. Gausman, however, still has a chance to do what his Colorado idol never could: hoist a World Series trophy. And the way he pitches tonight in start number 34 will go a long way toward helping him reach that goal. View full article
  15. The Blue Jays are going back to the ALCS. And now, finally, we know who will be standing between them and their first trip to the World Series since 1993. The Mariners beat the Tigers 3-2 on Friday night in a 15-inning marathon, despite the very best efforts of Tarik Skubal and Detroit's bullpen. After seven consecutive scoreless innings, J.P. Crawford singled in the bottom of the 15th. He moved up to second on a Randy Arozarena hit-by-pitch and tagged up to third on a Cal Raleigh fly out. With first base open, the Tigers put Julio Rodríguez on first, and Jorge Polanco stepped to the plate. Three balls and two strikes later, the count was full, and Tommy Kahnle delivered the pitch. Polanco sent it sharply into right, and the Mariners mobbed the field. Now, however, a tougher challenge awaits them in their first ALCS since 2001: your Toronto Blue Jays. Schedule of Games Game 1 – Sunday, Oct. 12 @ 8:03 pm (Rogers Centre) Game 2 – Monday, Oct. 13 @ 4:38 or 5:03 pm (Rogers Centre) Game 3 – Wednesday, Oct. 15 @ TBD (T-Mobile Park) Game 4 – Thursday, Oct. 16 @ TBD (T-Mobile Park) Game 5* – Friday, Oct. 17 @ TBD (T-Mobile Park) Game 6* – Sunday, Oct. 19 @ TBD (Rogers Centre) Game 7* – Monday, Oct. 20 @ TBD (Rogers Centre) *If necessary How Will the Blue Jays Set Up Their Rotation? I’m not going to play the guessing game again. I goofed last time, miscounted the days, and guessed all the wrong matchups in my ALDS preview. This series is only going to be more complicated, considering George Kirby started for the Mariners on Friday and Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert ultimately had to come in to pitch the final innings in relief. So instead, I'm just going to talk through Toronto’s options to start in the ALCS. Kevin Gausman will take Game 1. That much is guaranteed. Then it’s Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber, presumably for Games 2 and 3, and presumably in that order. Game 4 is where things get complicated. A bullpen game proved to be the right decision for the ALDS. But calling on the arm barn to do it again would be a big ask, and it could prove disastrous if John Schneider needs bulk from his bullpen earlier in the series. So, what are the other options? Max Scherzer should be available, but it’s not clear if the Blue Jays trust him. Schneider said Scherzer probably would have made the ALDS roster if the Red Sox had advanced instead of the Yankees; the Jays didn’t like how he matched up with New York. I’m not 100% convinced that wasn’t just a white lie out of respect for the veteran, but even if it wasn’t, we can only wonder what the Jays think about how he matches up with Seattle. Then there’s Chris Bassitt, who missed the final week of the regular season with low back inflammation. He pitched in the bye week intrasquad game but did not make the ALDS roster either, with Schneider claiming he wasn’t yet stretched out enough. Before Bassitt’s injury, I wrote about why I would pick him over Scherzer for a postseason start. I still stand by what I wrote. Specific matchups and health aside, I have more faith in Bassitt than Scherzer, given the way they both pitched down the stretch. But is it safe to presume Bassitt is back to full strength after another week to ramp up? Another point in Bassitt’s favour is that he might be better suited to pitch out of the bullpen if the Blue Jays decide mid-way through the series that they’d rather use a bullpen game instead of a more traditional fourth starter after all. One more wrinkle to consider comes from MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson. He suggests that if the Blue Jays are going to try another bullpen game, they might prefer to do so in Games 3 or 5 instead of 4. That way, they’d have an off day either right before or right after. I see where Matheson is coming from, and I trust his insight into the team, but in this case, I’m not sure I agree. If Gausman, Yesavage, and Bieber start the first three games of the series, they can also start Games 5 through 7. On the flip side, if the Blue Jays plan a bullpen game for Game 3, they would still need a fourth starter for a potential Game 7. If they plan a bullpen game for Game 5, they would still need a fourth starter for Game 4. Simply put, I don’t see the point of a bullpen game if it isn’t instead of a fourth starter. The Bo Bichette of It All Maybe I buried the lede here. The starting pitching question is interesting, but what everyone is really wondering is whether or not Bo Bichette will play in the ALCS. By all accounts, Bichette is making good progress recovering from his knee sprain. He says he’s optimistic. But he needs to be able to run the bases safely (and effectively) if he’s going to make the roster. We just don’t know if he’s there yet. A fully healthy Bichette most likely takes Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s spot on the roster. But if Bichette can only DH, I wonder if he should really take Anthony Santander’s place instead. Santander is 3-for-22 (.150/.227/.150) in September and October, and I don’t see how he’d have much more of a role than "late-inning pinch-hitter" if Bichette is DHing and George Springer has to play the outfield. Meanwhile, without IKF, the Blue Jays would be pretty hampered in the infield if either Andrés Giménez or Ernie Clement were to suffer a mid-game injury, or if John Schneider wants to lift either of them for a pinch-hitter. So, it becomes a question of pinch-hitting upside versus defensive versatility. Let me be clear: This is my line of thought. It doesn’t seem like the Blue Jays are considering leaving Santander off the roster. Still, I think it’s an option worth keeping in mind. Check back tomorrow for our full breakdown of how the Blue Jays match up with the Mariners on both sides of the ball. View full article
  16. The Blue Jays are going back to the ALCS. And now, finally, we know who will be standing between them and their first trip to the World Series since 1993. The Mariners beat the Tigers 3-2 on Friday night in a 15-inning marathon, despite the very best efforts of Tarik Skubal and Detroit's bullpen. After seven consecutive scoreless innings, J.P. Crawford singled in the bottom of the 15th. He moved up to second on a Randy Arozarena hit-by-pitch and tagged up to third on a Cal Raleigh fly out. With first base open, the Tigers put Julio Rodríguez on first, and Jorge Polanco stepped to the plate. Three balls and two strikes later, the count was full, and Tommy Kahnle delivered the pitch. Polanco sent it sharply into right, and the Mariners mobbed the field. Now, however, a tougher challenge awaits them in their first ALCS since 2001: your Toronto Blue Jays. Schedule of Games Game 1 – Sunday, Oct. 12 @ 8:03 pm (Rogers Centre) Game 2 – Monday, Oct. 13 @ 4:38 or 5:03 pm (Rogers Centre) Game 3 – Wednesday, Oct. 15 @ TBD (T-Mobile Park) Game 4 – Thursday, Oct. 16 @ TBD (T-Mobile Park) Game 5* – Friday, Oct. 17 @ TBD (T-Mobile Park) Game 6* – Sunday, Oct. 19 @ TBD (Rogers Centre) Game 7* – Monday, Oct. 20 @ TBD (Rogers Centre) *If necessary How Will the Blue Jays Set Up Their Rotation? I’m not going to play the guessing game again. I goofed last time, miscounted the days, and guessed all the wrong matchups in my ALDS preview. This series is only going to be more complicated, considering George Kirby started for the Mariners on Friday and Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert ultimately had to come in to pitch the final innings in relief. So instead, I'm just going to talk through Toronto’s options to start in the ALCS. Kevin Gausman will take Game 1. That much is guaranteed. Then it’s Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber, presumably for Games 2 and 3, and presumably in that order. Game 4 is where things get complicated. A bullpen game proved to be the right decision for the ALDS. But calling on the arm barn to do it again would be a big ask, and it could prove disastrous if John Schneider needs bulk from his bullpen earlier in the series. So, what are the other options? Max Scherzer should be available, but it’s not clear if the Blue Jays trust him. Schneider said Scherzer probably would have made the ALDS roster if the Red Sox had advanced instead of the Yankees; the Jays didn’t like how he matched up with New York. I’m not 100% convinced that wasn’t just a white lie out of respect for the veteran, but even if it wasn’t, we can only wonder what the Jays think about how he matches up with Seattle. Then there’s Chris Bassitt, who missed the final week of the regular season with low back inflammation. He pitched in the bye week intrasquad game but did not make the ALDS roster either, with Schneider claiming he wasn’t yet stretched out enough. Before Bassitt’s injury, I wrote about why I would pick him over Scherzer for a postseason start. I still stand by what I wrote. Specific matchups and health aside, I have more faith in Bassitt than Scherzer, given the way they both pitched down the stretch. But is it safe to presume Bassitt is back to full strength after another week to ramp up? Another point in Bassitt’s favour is that he might be better suited to pitch out of the bullpen if the Blue Jays decide mid-way through the series that they’d rather use a bullpen game instead of a more traditional fourth starter after all. One more wrinkle to consider comes from MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson. He suggests that if the Blue Jays are going to try another bullpen game, they might prefer to do so in Games 3 or 5 instead of 4. That way, they’d have an off day either right before or right after. I see where Matheson is coming from, and I trust his insight into the team, but in this case, I’m not sure I agree. If Gausman, Yesavage, and Bieber start the first three games of the series, they can also start Games 5 through 7. On the flip side, if the Blue Jays plan a bullpen game for Game 3, they would still need a fourth starter for a potential Game 7. If they plan a bullpen game for Game 5, they would still need a fourth starter for Game 4. Simply put, I don’t see the point of a bullpen game if it isn’t instead of a fourth starter. The Bo Bichette of It All Maybe I buried the lede here. The starting pitching question is interesting, but what everyone is really wondering is whether or not Bo Bichette will play in the ALCS. By all accounts, Bichette is making good progress recovering from his knee sprain. He says he’s optimistic. But he needs to be able to run the bases safely (and effectively) if he’s going to make the roster. We just don’t know if he’s there yet. A fully healthy Bichette most likely takes Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s spot on the roster. But if Bichette can only DH, I wonder if he should really take Anthony Santander’s place instead. Santander is 3-for-22 (.150/.227/.150) in September and October, and I don’t see how he’d have much more of a role than "late-inning pinch-hitter" if Bichette is DHing and George Springer has to play the outfield. Meanwhile, without IKF, the Blue Jays would be pretty hampered in the infield if either Andrés Giménez or Ernie Clement were to suffer a mid-game injury, or if John Schneider wants to lift either of them for a pinch-hitter. So, it becomes a question of pinch-hitting upside versus defensive versatility. Let me be clear: This is my line of thought. It doesn’t seem like the Blue Jays are considering leaving Santander off the roster. Still, I think it’s an option worth keeping in mind. Check back tomorrow for our full breakdown of how the Blue Jays match up with the Mariners on both sides of the ball.
  17. Is this the beginning of baseball’s next cheating scandal? The New York Yankees lobbed some serious accusations at the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend, claiming their ALDS opponents are taking advantage of a deeper, more talented lineup to score runs more frequently. After outscoring the Yankees 70-59 during the regular season and taking the season series eight games to five, the Blue Jays pummelled their AL East rivals in the first two games of the ALDS, winning 10-1 and 13-7. Blue Jays pitchers have limited the opposition to a .232/.289/.333 slash line in the series, with 21 strikeouts and one lone home run. Meanwhile, Toronto’s hitters are slashing .392/.420/.797. They have homered eight times and struck out only seven. Yankees pitchers own a 12.94 ERA thus far, with 23 runs allowed over 16 innings; the Blue Jays mercifully let them skip the ninth in both games. So, with their season on the line, it’s no wonder the Yankees are getting suspicious. “Max Fried is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He faced 18 Blue Jays batters on Sunday afternoon. More than half of them reached base. Only one of them struck out. That can only mean one thing,” explained Yankees manager Aaron Boone. “The Blue Jays are exploiting their unparalleled contact skills to rack up hits. Even more egregious, they’re turning those hits into runs. It’s unconscionable.” With the ALDS set to resume tonight at Yankee Stadium, the commissioner’s office will be keeping a close eye on the Blue Jays for more signs of foul play, including, but not limited to: historic grand slams, iconic bat flips, perfect splitters to strike out Aaron Judge, games with more home runs than strikeouts, rookie pitchers throwing 5.1 hitless innings, and record-breaking offensive performances.
  18. Is this the beginning of baseball’s next cheating scandal? The New York Yankees lobbed some serious accusations at the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend, claiming their ALDS opponents are taking advantage of a deeper, more talented lineup to score runs more frequently. After outscoring the Yankees 70-59 during the regular season and taking the season series eight games to five, the Blue Jays pummelled their AL East rivals in the first two games of the ALDS, winning 10-1 and 13-7. Blue Jays pitchers have limited the opposition to a .232/.289/.333 slash line in the series, with 21 strikeouts and one lone home run. Meanwhile, Toronto’s hitters are slashing .392/.420/.797. They have homered eight times and struck out only seven. Yankees pitchers own a 12.94 ERA thus far, with 23 runs allowed over 16 innings; the Blue Jays mercifully let them skip the ninth in both games. So, with their season on the line, it’s no wonder the Yankees are getting suspicious. “Max Fried is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He faced 18 Blue Jays batters on Sunday afternoon. More than half of them reached base. Only one of them struck out. That can only mean one thing,” explained Yankees manager Aaron Boone. “The Blue Jays are exploiting their unparalleled contact skills to rack up hits. Even more egregious, they’re turning those hits into runs. It’s unconscionable.” With the ALDS set to resume tonight at Yankee Stadium, the commissioner’s office will be keeping a close eye on the Blue Jays for more signs of foul play, including, but not limited to: historic grand slams, iconic bat flips, perfect splitters to strike out Aaron Judge, games with more home runs than strikeouts, rookie pitchers throwing 5.1 hitless innings, and record-breaking offensive performances. View full article
  19. The Wild Card round is over, and the field for the divisional round is set. The Phillies will see the Dodgers. The Brewers will face the Cubs. The Mariners will take on the Tigers. And the Toronto Blue Jays will go head-to-head with the New York Yankees. The Yankees are looking for redemption after losing the AL East on a tiebreaker. The Blue Jays are looking to win their first postseason series since 2016. In other words, both teams will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. It should make for one heck of a matchup. Game 1 – Saturday, Oct. 4 @ 4:08 PM (Rogers Centre) Probable Pitchers: Kevin Gausman vs. Max Fried It will be interesting to see how John Schneider rearranges his lineup with one of the game's preeminent southpaws on the mound. Max Fried gave the Yankees 6.1 innings of shutout ball in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, striking out six. In four starts against the Blue Jays this season, he gave up 14 runs (11 earned) in 24.1 innings of work, striking out 12 and walking eight. While he won both of his starts against the Jays at Yankee Stadium, he wasn't nearly as effective in Toronto. Indeed, it was a poor start against the Blue Jays that kicked off a rough stretch for Fried in July and August. Unfortunately for the Jays, he righted the ship down the stretch. He was one of the only pitchers in the league with even better numbers than Kevin Gausman over the final weeks of the season. Speaking of Gausman, the Blue Jays have still yet to confirm that he'll be taking the mound for Game 1, but it's hard to believe it could be anyone else. The veteran proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he remains the ace of this staff with a dominant showing over his last six starts of the regular season, including an eight-inning gem against the Yankees. Game 2 – Sunday, Oct. 5 @ 4:08 PM (Rogers Centre) Probable Pitchers: Shane Bieber vs. Carlos Rodón Another game, another tough left-hander. Carlos Rodón gave the Yankees a quality start in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, tossing six frames and giving up three runs on four hits. He's faced the Blue Jays twice so far in 2025; he was solid but unspectacular in both outings (10 IP, 6 R, 4 ER, 8 K, 8 BB), and the Blue Jays won both games. Of course, he pitched to a 3.06 ERA in 31 starts against the rest of his opponents, so it's not like this is going to be a cakewalk for the Blue Jays' bats. Once again, it will be interesting to see which lefties Schneider puts in the lineup and which he sends to the bench. It's been a while since Shane Bieber last faced the Yankees. Indeed, he's only seen them three times in the last five years, but for what it's worth, all three were quality starts; he held New York to six runs in 22 total innings. He might not be quite the same pitcher he was when he last took on the Yankees in 2023, but Bieber has proven to be a great pickup for Toronto, pitching to a mid-3.00s ERA in seven starts. He's the number two starter this team needed, and he'll give the Jays a real shot to beat Rodón and the Yankees in Game 2. Game 3 – Tuesday, Oct. 7 @ TBA (Yankee Stadium) Probable Pitchers: Chris Bassitt/Trey Yesavage/Max Scherzer vs. Cam Schlittler This is where things get complicated for the Blue Jays. The Yankees will presumably turn to Cam Schlittler again, the rookie who led them to victory in the deciding game of the Wild Card Series. Schlittler gave his team eight scoreless innings against their fiercest rivals, striking out 12 and walking none. The Blue Jays gave Schlittler a bit of a beating in September, but all of a sudden, it's hard not to feel scared of the three-headed monster atop New York's rotation. As for the Blue Jays, they could go one of three ways when it comes to their Game 3 starting pitcher. Will it be the postseason legend and two-time World Series champion, Max Scherzer? Or the stud rookie in his very first professional season, Trey Yesavage? Or the reliable workhorse coming off a brief IL stint, Chris Bassitt? We'll just have to wait and find out. To read more about the Yankees and how they match up with the Blue Jays, you can check out Mike LeSage’s ALDS preview.
  20. I love it too. I feel like his overall numbers don't do his season justice. But when you look at his performance as a starter and a reliever separately, it's clear how valuable he's been.
  21. Come along and count with me: Zero: The number of home runs Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit over the final two weeks of the regular season. One: The digit each of his triple slash stats started with in that time (.164/.193/.182). Two: His wRC+. Three: That's how many double plays he grounded into, tied for the most in the league. Four: And that's how many times he came around to score in 57 trips to the plate. ... ... Nine hundred forty-two: The number of players with a higher FanGraphs WAR than Guerrero over those two weeks. Vladdy was hotter than hot when September kicked off. From the All-Star break through Saturday, September 13, his 1.040 OPS, 188 wRC+, and .420 xwOBA all ranked third among qualified AL hitters. Even a brief injury scare in mid-August couldn't slow him down. Then, from September 14 through the end of the regular season, the Blue Jays' superstar all of a sudden went ice cold. Ups and downs are typical for any player, and Guerrero is no exception. But this was no ordinary down. Over his final 14 games, Guerrero produced a 2 wRC+. That means his production was 98% worse than that of a league-average hitter. The following graph shows his wRC+ in every 14-game stretch of his career. You'll see plenty of high points and plenty of low points. You'll also see he's never had a low point quite this low: The second-lowest point you'll see on that graph is an 8 wRC+ from April 26 to May 10. That's only an 11-game stretch, because Guerrero had only played 11 career games to that point. He had just turned 20 years old. So, his second-lowest wRC+ in an actual 14-game stretch was 30. Thirty. His wRC+ in his last 14 games is 2. Two. That's a 28-point difference, the same as the difference between Ernie Clement (98 wRC+, .711 OPS) and Andrés Giménez (70 wRC+, .598 OPS). Think about that: The gap in production between Guerrero's last 14 games and his previous worst 14-game stretch is the same as the gap in production between 2025 Clement and 2025 Giménez. That's huge. Vladdy also ranked last among all players (pitchers and hitters) in FanGraphs WAR from Sept. 14-28, and his -0.6 fWAR in that time was also his lowest in any 14-game span of his career. It's not hyperbole to say we've never seen him look worse. The good news is that none of this ended up hurting the Blue Jays. They still went 8-6 (.571) in their final 14 games, right in line with their 86-62 (.581) performance over their first 148. More to the point, they still won the AL East, securing a first-round bye and home field advantage through at least the ALCS. Sure, a little more production from Guerrero might have saved the fanbase a whole lot of nail-biting over the final days of the season. But knowing how everything worked out, would you really have wanted it any other way? If you're the pessimistic sort, I suppose you might be worried about Guerrero's struggles carrying over into October. The Jays survived his slump in September, but now the stakes are higher, and the competition will be harder. Yet, as an optimist, I implore you to put more stock in Guerrero's full-season 137 wRC+ (and his matching career 137 wRC+) than his disappointing numbers from the very end of the season. I encourage you to remember that even during his slump, his strong contract skills and elite bat speed remained unchanged. Two weeks – any two weeks – make for a tiny sample, and stats from tiny samples aren't to be trusted, no matter how recent or dramatic they might be. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is entering the postseason coming off the worst two weeks of his career. That's a true story, and it's one worth telling. It's not, however, any reason to worry about his performance going forward. View full article
  22. Come along and count with me: Zero: The number of home runs Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit over the final two weeks of the regular season. One: The digit each of his triple slash stats started with in that time (.164/.193/.182). Two: His wRC+. Three: That's how many double plays he grounded into, tied for the most in the league. Four: And that's how many times he came around to score in 57 trips to the plate. ... ... Nine hundred forty-two: The number of players with a higher FanGraphs WAR than Guerrero over those two weeks. Vladdy was hotter than hot when September kicked off. From the All-Star break through Saturday, September 13, his 1.040 OPS, 188 wRC+, and .420 xwOBA all ranked third among qualified AL hitters. Even a brief injury scare in mid-August couldn't slow him down. Then, from September 14 through the end of the regular season, the Blue Jays' superstar all of a sudden went ice cold. Ups and downs are typical for any player, and Guerrero is no exception. But this was no ordinary down. Over his final 14 games, Guerrero produced a 2 wRC+. That means his production was 98% worse than that of a league-average hitter. The following graph shows his wRC+ in every 14-game stretch of his career. You'll see plenty of high points and plenty of low points. You'll also see he's never had a low point quite this low: The second-lowest point you'll see on that graph is an 8 wRC+ from April 26 to May 10. That's only an 11-game stretch, because Guerrero had only played 11 career games to that point. He had just turned 20 years old. So, his second-lowest wRC+ in an actual 14-game stretch was 30. Thirty. His wRC+ in his last 14 games is 2. Two. That's a 28-point difference, the same as the difference between Ernie Clement (98 wRC+, .711 OPS) and Andrés Giménez (70 wRC+, .598 OPS). Think about that: The gap in production between Guerrero's last 14 games and his previous worst 14-game stretch is the same as the gap in production between 2025 Clement and 2025 Giménez. That's huge. Vladdy also ranked last among all players (pitchers and hitters) in FanGraphs WAR from Sept. 14-28, and his -0.6 fWAR in that time was also his lowest in any 14-game span of his career. It's not hyperbole to say we've never seen him look worse. The good news is that none of this ended up hurting the Blue Jays. They still went 8-6 (.571) in their final 14 games, right in line with their 86-62 (.581) performance over their first 148. More to the point, they still won the AL East, securing a first-round bye and home field advantage through at least the ALCS. Sure, a little more production from Guerrero might have saved the fanbase a whole lot of nail-biting over the final days of the season. But knowing how everything worked out, would you really have wanted it any other way? If you're the pessimistic sort, I suppose you might be worried about Guerrero's struggles carrying over into October. The Jays survived his slump in September, but now the stakes are higher, and the competition will be harder. Yet, as an optimist, I implore you to put more stock in Guerrero's full-season 137 wRC+ (and his matching career 137 wRC+) than his disappointing numbers from the very end of the season. I encourage you to remember that even during his slump, his strong contract skills and elite bat speed remained unchanged. Two weeks – any two weeks – make for a tiny sample, and stats from tiny samples aren't to be trusted, no matter how recent or dramatic they might be. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is entering the postseason coming off the worst two weeks of his career. That's a true story, and it's one worth telling. It's not, however, any reason to worry about his performance going forward.
  23. A second opinion has confirmed that right-hander José Berríos does not have structural damage in his elbow (per Sportnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith). However, he has begun throwing again and will not be available to join Toronto in the upcoming ALDS. If the Blue Jays advance in the postseason, it remains a possibility that he could rejoin the team for a later round, presumably in a bullpen role. Thankfully, Nicholson-Smith notes that right-hander Chris Bassitt is still on track to return for the ALDS. The veteran hit the IL with low back inflammation in mid-September. The Blue Jays have not yet confirmed whether or not Bassitt would get a start in the series, but he is a strong contender to take the ball for Game 3 or a potential Game 4. Finally, Bo Bichette continues to make progress, but general manager Ross Atkins told reporters (including MLB.com's Keegan Matheson) that the Jays "don’t have a date" for his return. Atkins added that "every day has gotten better for him," but he is still "day to day." In additional Blue Jays news, Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling reports the potential start times for Toronto's first two games in the ALDS. If the Jays are playing the Yankees, Game 1 on October 4 will begin at 4:08 pm, while if they are playing the Red Sox, the contest will start three hours earlier at 1:08 pm. Game 2 on October 5 will start at 4:08 pm regardless of Toronto's opponent. Featured image courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images. View full rumor
  24. A second opinion has confirmed that right-hander José Berríos does not have structural damage in his elbow (per Sportnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith). However, he has begun throwing again and will not be available to join Toronto in the upcoming ALDS. If the Blue Jays advance in the postseason, it remains a possibility that he could rejoin the team for a later round, presumably in a bullpen role. Thankfully, Nicholson-Smith notes that right-hander Chris Bassitt is still on track to return for the ALDS. The veteran hit the IL with low back inflammation in mid-September. The Blue Jays have not yet confirmed whether or not Bassitt would get a start in the series, but he is a strong contender to take the ball for Game 3 or a potential Game 4. Finally, Bo Bichette continues to make progress, but general manager Ross Atkins told reporters (including MLB.com's Keegan Matheson) that the Jays "don’t have a date" for his return. Atkins added that "every day has gotten better for him," but he is still "day to day." In additional Blue Jays news, Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling reports the potential start times for Toronto's first two games in the ALDS. If the Jays are playing the Yankees, Game 1 on October 4 will begin at 4:08 pm, while if they are playing the Red Sox, the contest will start three hours earlier at 1:08 pm. Game 2 on October 5 will start at 4:08 pm regardless of Toronto's opponent. Featured image courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images.
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