AMS528

Gabe Gross looked like Babe Ruth in spring training one year. It's not completely meaningless, but it's also not meaningful.

Springer is 34 at a time when aging curves have become more normal so there's less reason to expect he'd be as good as that again. Slightly better than last year maybe. Vlad has played at 2021 levels, 20% of the time. 1 out 5 full seasons. Again there is not a lot of reason to expect that level of upside, even if he was better than last year which we should at least expect. Given that, you're not talking about much upside, but mostly hoping that Varsho hits better to compensate for not having Belt anymore, and Kirk is better to compensate for IKF being much worse than Chapman. Meanwhile KK is probably not going to be as good as last year cause he's also 34 and probably outperformed his peripherals last year. Schneider also performed out of his mind for his stretch which is unlikely to repeat. Those are not 141 PAs we're getting again from anyone. Given that, again it looks less like a reasonable upside and more like we're hoping to just match last years performance at the plate. The real upside part of that, where we exceed last years performance, needs Springer to not have aged, Vlad to return to elite hitting, Varsho hitting like 2022, KK repeating, and Kirk hitting again which seems more like the 95% outcome. There's a chance there but it's not so likely. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but Belt and Chapman were good hitters or at least decent hitters in Chapman's case, so we were already starting from a deficit when looking at needing guys to bounce back to past form (Plus those Schneider ABs).

True, and it's also true that there are no rules against doing that so it's more of an ingrained culture thing at this point where everyone's accustomed to just discussing every other topic in the around baseball thread. Be the change you want to see I guess.

I don't know if this is really the place for discussion about it, but I have really found the fact that all the discussion on this board basically gets confined to like four threads is unideal for effective discussions. I get not wanting a specific thread for every issue with the team etc. but even just having like general blue jays hitting discussion, general blue jays pitching discussion, general blue jays bullpen discussion or something like would probably help with a conversation or discussion not getting lost in a couple of pages, or a single diversion between two posters drowning out any other conversation for a series of pages. This is like the busiest Blue Jays message board by a mile, and it's weird that it winds up working that way.

I have generally felt like Atkins has done a good job, especially on trades getting value consistently. But there is like no way to view this offseason as anything but a disappointment when you strike out on every free agent available and even the ones whose price dropped significantly. IKF as the best acquisition is pretty miserable. Getting KK again, and not maximizing the value that Varsho would bring at CF instead is also pretty s*****. This wasn't a very good offseason when you're trying to squeeze a few more wins in. The front office must believe a few guys are primed for breakouts and returns to form which I hope is happens.

I'm sure this has been discussed a few times already, but I just want to note my frustration at the team failing to maximize Varsho in CF by signing Kiermaier. Just feels like they'd be failing to get the best out of the roster.

So it's still a somewhat crowded ballot, but at least with Mauer and Beltre getting in as first year candidates it doesn't create additional backlog. And Helton got in clearing another spot. Next year is two more definitely HOF players in Ichiro and CC. Ichiro is a mortal lock, could come close to getting every single vote and really should get every vote. CC didn't have the peak of most HOF pitchers, but the standards have changed for pitchers. He'll get in but maybe not next year. So probably Ichiro, Wagner, maybe CC and maybe Andruw Jones. Beltran might need another year. It might be 2026 when we see a real clearout of the close candidates. Guys like Beltran, A-Rod, Utley and Sabathia (if he doesn't make it in 2025) are going to see bigger boosts cause the closest candidate to making it in is going to be like Cole Hamels and Edwin and they're absolutely not making it. 2027 is light as well with just Buster Posey. If CC makes it in 2025, then you've got a real clearout potentially happening in the backlog for two years running. There could also be an unexpected candidate or two (Abreu or Petitte probably) get a bigger jump because of that.

Even in Seattle he was pretty decent. Steady, wracked up some value throughout the contract. That stadium just didn't work for him for whatever reason. He hit hit significantly better away overall during that time. If he had played on another team he might have actually managed to have the most WAR of any 3B in history.

If it's similar to Sale, we can always hope to get five really great years out of and then deal him right before his arm explodes.

Saw this on reddit and it was interesting. https://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/mismanaging-managers-has-been-jays-way Gibby is the best, and I believe him when he's saying this. Which makes it even worse that Atkins threw Schneider under the bus in his press conference.

Moreno is athletic and scores well defensively on the non-framing numbers. Framing is something that can improve with age. If that's the aspect of his game that's going to take him to being a 4-5 WAR player, then he's got a real solid shot. His base running was also terrible this year. His speed is fine so that shouldn't be as bad. With Moreno all it takes is just slightly more power, slightly better framing, and slightly better base running to take him to being worth that consistently. Improving just two out of three makes him super valuable.

My biggest issue with pulling Berrios is regardless of how it worked or didn't, when you consider allocation of resources it makes no sense. What is the point of committing over 100 million dollars to a starter if you're going to only give them 3 innings in a must win playoff game. If that's the case then get guys who won't cost that much to pitch that little and allocate that money to the offense or bullpen.

His hitting can be acceptable if it's just slightly improved, he only ever plays CF and we get a LF who hits well. Then he can rack up 3-4 WAR even as a bad hitter. Doesn't make that trade feel any better for the future though.

He's always been a prick. One of his former GM's said he was “a horse every fifth day and a horse’s ass the other four.” David Wells also mentioned he was widely disliked. Also for some possible additional clarity, Wakefield apparently did not tell Schilling. It was another teammate who told him in confidence, which makes it even worse, cause it wasn't as if Wakefield had even wanted to tell Schilling and he still revealed it when clearly no one else knew and he was well aware of that. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/curt-schilling-reveals-tim-wakefield-health-information-without-familys-permission-red-sox-issue-statement/ Red Sox also released an official statement confirming that it wasn't supposed to be revealed. He's a complete and utter piece of s***, has been for a long time. Just right to the core really.

Where's it possible to see the breakdown between pulled ground ball rate and pulled fly ball rate?

He's at 55-57 WAR and coming off the best two seasons of his career. I think barring an absolutely unforeseeable disaster he'll make it in relatively easily with three more decent and nowhere near this good years. One more really good year and two decent years is slam dunk HOF career. By the time he retires enough of the newer voters will be in place that there's not going to be as much BS.

I feel like framing is probably an area that a young catcher can improve with time. His athleticism is helping him in terms of the rest. He's been a terrible baserunner this year, but he grades out as an average sprinter so he probably won't be as bad as he's been this year. All of that makes me believe he really is going to be a 4-5 WAR catcher by whatever measure you choose going into the future, possibly for a long time. He's got a real shot based on some of these factors to be truly great if he develops any more power at all. Although to caution things here, Kirk last year would have had one of the best 23 year old catcher seasons ever. Moreno is not severely out of shape, so he's got that going for him in terms of his potential though.

bWAR really loves Gabriel Moreno, it also likes Varsho, but Moreno leads baseball dWAR in 105 games. 4.3 WAR overall. He's up to a 106 wRC+. I think whichever of bWAR or fWAR you want to choose for it, Moreno has had the better year, and if I was going to guess the more valuable player going forward.

Marcus Semien leads the AL in batter bWAR and is tied for second in the AL by fWAR. Nothing about him particularly stands out, but he just does every single thing well, good baserunner, great defender, above average bat at 2B that he just racks up value. He's almost at 42 bWAR, and honestly given how much bWAR he seems to rack up by just existing, he could end up at 50 WAR in two seasons from now. And I will absolutely start the Semien to HOF wagon at that point. At the time I think it made sense not to resign him for the amount he got, but's he's already managed to be worth a good chunk of that contract. One of the better performing major free agent signings of recent times.

His extension is through 2024. It was signed in 2020 so pre WS win. So his price is going to jump up significantly. Friedman is probably making like ten million a year and you figure AA is going to be asking for something like that.

Six straight division championships, all under AA. I think the first couple of years you could have said he hadn't built that team and had walked into the wins, but he has gotten the Braves right up there with the Astros and Dodgers now as the most consistently great teams in MLB.

Imagine losing Freddie Freeman and replacing him with another star who hits 50 HRs for basically scraps. 8 position players with 2 or higher WAR. 4 starters above that. Just a ridiculous team, and most of them signed to incredibly reasonable long term deals.

Yeah of course. Just noting the history, and if it is true that's very stupid on his part to be in this situation again. Last time around he was charged, there was not much doubt that he was in an altercation and shoved the woman to the ground. There were witnesses who stated they saw it. The reason it didn't go further was because the woman didn't want it to and claimed she just fell. He just had to do some counselling. There's going to be less skepticism for him because of the history.

Julio Urias arrested for domestic violence. https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/statu...47733987803274 That is now the second time in his career he's picking up a similar charge. You really should have learned your lesson after the first, and his history is going to be super relevant to the case and to what MLB and the Dodgers do.

He's got great strikeout numbers no doubt, but his overall numbers in AA weren't that great. It may be that he had a few difficult starts that had his ERA higher, but he's not like a no doubt guy. He will in all likelihood as a reliever or starter produce more than Mitch White who was a complete negative here, practically be default. On the plus side for him, he has actually managed to pitch 80 innings this year.