wk680

It's a huge long-shot (estimated by Fangraphs to have a 12 % chance of making post-season currently compared to 61 % for Yankees, 37 % for Rays and 51 % for Royals, so 2 of those 3 would need to tank along with a Jays strong push) I think they mentioned during the last game that the Jays had a shockingly bad record of 8-17 in games with a left-handed starter for the opposition, which would now be 9-17 after yesterday. With the right-handed dominant lineup and Morales and Smoak both hitting well right-handed this year (142 and 212 wRC+, respectively), it's quite a head scratcher. Even if they were 13-13 in those games, it would put them in striking distance of a wild card spot right now. Also, if the Jays finish the season well, combined with management saying they intend to field a competitive team in 2018, it will help with ticket sales in the offseason. I wonder if they will have the same early deadline for renewal of season tickets and flexpacks as last year.

Manaea was apparently named top prospect in the 2012 Cape Cod League season and then went on to be picked 34th overall, so yeah those who pay attention would have heard of him. Just more Tabler drivel.

Two walks both came around to score. Could have got out of it with bases loaded, 1 out, but the grounder to SS was too slow to get the DP. A combination of poor execution and bad luck by Stroman.

With only 1 quality start in his past 9, there is only so much one good game now would be able to restore. At least he was able to finish off the 5th and striking out one their best hitters. Could be still in line for a quality start but considering the pitch count, I suspect he is done for the night. Probably last game pitching for the Jays, but I would not be surprised to see them keep him if nothing much is offered up for trade.

Samardjiza is owed $18M a year for the next 3 seasons (age 33-35 seasons). Yeah he is a true workhorse, on pace for his fifth straight 200+ ip season. Interesting that his K/9 rate to date in 2017 is higher than career average, BUT so is his HR/FB rate. But the FIP and xFIP this season look pretty good. I doubt the Giants are interested in trading him (like the Jays I imagine they see themselves retooling and trying to contend in 2018), so would take a pretty good haul to acquire him. May as well just go for someone in free agency and keep the prospects.

I think at every level (and more so as they move up) it's also about responding to the opposition when they adapt to what you are doing. For example, Estrada was successful for quite a while focusing on the 4SFB and an excellent CH. But now opponents have finally learned how to counter his approach, and he is scrambling to respond. Same goes for batters. The opposition is always looking for ways to counter their strengths and exploit their weaknesses. Those who are constantly adapting and trying to be 'unpredictable' have a better chance to succeed, especially at the highest level of competition.

Looks like Estrada going on Wednesday. Hope he gives you a good outing with a W closed out by Osuna. Enjoy!

He is also still only 24, so potential upside. His overall 72 wRC+ in about 200 MLB games is a decent baseline to project some improvement from. Seems like somewhat above average defensive rating. Profar, being a former #1 overall prospect and having underperformed to date, is a good example that prospects should not be counted on. When I see the references to the coming "Vlad/Bo era" of the Jays, I think people should temper their optimism a bit.

I saw this posted online today. Hopefully the prediction turns out correct: "Last week, the high-A Dunedin Blue Jays posted a photo of three members of their team -- Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette -- with the caption "Biggio, Guerrero, Bichette: The Sequel." The 44-54 Blue Jays might not have a ton to be thrilled about this season, but there are clearly better days on the horizon."

Yeah I would not go more than 3 years $60M for Cain, but someone else is likely to be foolish enough to pay more (although we though the same about Encarnacion). If you could get him for 2 yr / $40M with a 3rd year option with $2M buyout, that may be reasonable.

Not necessarily. People may figure the A's are a bad team that the Jays can actually beat so be more likely to tune in than to see them overmatched against Boston or Cleveland

What about Lorenzo Cain who is a year and a half younger and with more pop in his bat. Although not as fast as Dyson, he is a base stealer. I realize this is a bigger financial commitment, but the Jays can afford it.

Jays will play game 162 on Oct 1st, and that will put a merciful end to this season.

Jays players seem to have given up. They need to pull it together and play for some pride the next 2 months.

Yes and teams that look like powerhouses on paper at the beginning of April sometimes bomb. Likelihood of Jays going to the WS in 2018 is small but tearing the team down to the foundation isn't necessarily the best way forward either. It will be a very tricky balancing act for the FO. ETA: with the 2nd wild card pretty much every team does go into the season with a chance if everything breaks their way. Look at the Twins rollercoaster over the past 3 seasons

Need guys from within the organization to step up as well. Yes it's a pipe dream, because pretty much everything would need to go right.

I think it is like you said in an earlier post: "See if anyone will give you a good return if you eat salary (off-season might be better for Donaldson)... And sign some short term deals on players that might be looking to rebuild their value." The latter would be the key to success in 2018 (along with some returning players rebounding). It might look like the Red Sox in 2013 in a best case scenario. Jays could also get some meaningful contributions in 2018 from guys like Gurriel and Alford (like Boston did with Bogaerts in 2013).

This is not just any salary dump. He is owed about $290 M through 2027, and the Marlins are sitting on a pile of debt with ongoing operating losses. That's not to say they won't want quality players in return. Anyway, it will likely have to wait until new ownership is in place and put their own plans into place.

Yeah Chatwood has a high GB rate and will only be 28 entering next season. I was thinking about Lance Lynn, who also has a high GB rate, but will be 31 and may cost considerably more.

Yeah this season was to have been the one in which we saw if he could bounce back from a mediocre 2016, but instead he has produced somewhat worse at the plate with continuing loss of running speed. So I would decline the option. Bautista on the other hand will likely be happy to exercise it. He won't even get a 1 year deal for that much money at this point. This may be a spot to fill with a free agent. I wonder what Cain will get in free agency. I counted about $51 M coming off the books from free agents after 2017, but a number of players due more in Arb (Pillar, Sanchez, Stroman). The good news with Donaldson's bad season is his last year of Arb he may not be able to get much more than the $17M he is getting this season. And Sanchez's lack of production will similarly keep his contract down. So, yes there will be money to spend on payroll, and I might even advocate going above the 2017 payroll (the money continues to pour in with AL-leading attendance). But I don't know that there is much for 'creative ways' to use that. With the Jays adamant in not trading top prospects, I don't see them getting any quality high paid players in trade. You are pretty much looking at taking on Liriano- or Smoak-type reclamation projects and hoping they can rebound. To me, the question is how aggressive do you go in the free agent market, and with the season the Jays are having, attracting top free agents could turn out be as challenging as ever. Yes a tactical retreat must be done. The question then is do you dig in and hunker down or regroup and add some fresh troops for a new attack in 2018.

I think ten is a pretty high number. Of those who are under contract/control for 2018, you might expect more from Donaldson, Tulo, Happ, Morales, Pillar (needs a defensive bounce back), Travis (can he stay off the DL?), and Sanchez (is this blister thing ever going to clear up?). Pearce (currently 108 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR) needs to play 1B/DH or his offensive contributions are negated by his poor LF play. Bautista (96 wRC+ and +0.2 fWAR) could be more productive but could just as easily continue to lose value at his advanced age. Martin is actually having a decent season, and at his age is unlikely to do much more.

In other words the Jays may be in about the same sorry state as the Phillies from a few years back ? Maybe we at least have a better head start on rebuilding the farm than they did when their old team hit the wall.

If you could bring in a better defensive SS, and Tulo can handle 3B, maybe you end up with overall better D on the left side. As for his bat 'playing at 3B', I feel like we don't need a prototypical power bat at 3B, but also hopefully Tulo could rebound and once again be a 20 HR, .800 OPS guy. BUT the OF corners are the area where the Jays need to do a better job of adding some thump to the lineup without sacrificing too much on the defense side, especially in this no Donaldson scenario. The more I think about it, the less less likely I think the Jays can contend in 2018, short of going all out on free agents and hitting pay dirt there.

Seems the best trade candidate right now is Happ, but trading him would make attempting to contend in 2018 that much more difficult. There seems to be differing opinions on whether it would be better to trade Donaldson now or during the off season (or keep him for 2018). I don't think I have seen this mentioned before on this forum, but what about trading JD and moving Tulo (who is losing range at SS) to 3B. He still has the big arm, so maybe he could do OK there. Can Gurriel and/or Urena effectively take over at SS in 2018 ?

Yes some less than stellar D did again come back on the Jays, but no excuse for the lack of offense against a pitcher who came in sporting a 5.40 era and in his first game back off the DL.