max silver

I wasn't aware it was possible to review plays in this fashion, this is incredibly cool stuff. Does the OAA system directly account for fielder positioning? This particular play is rated as a 99% probability catch, but based on how far Varsho had to run this seems like a far more difficult play in reality. It appears that this particular play would have required a diving catch to be made. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=9a0e28b5-d93c-4286-879a-86585c7af65e This particular play is assigned a 70% difficulty rating, which also makes me question whether fielder positioning is a factor in breaking down these plays. A line drive which hits this high up the wall appears to be a very difficult play to my eyes. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=9f6510c8-aea4-40a2-8e3f-6c48e507124d

I have a question pertaining OAA as well. This season Daulton Varsho has excellent defensive metrics across the board save for an anomalous -2 OAA in left field. There is a massive discrepancy between his DRS and OAA in left field this season where he has accumulated 7 DRS in 509 innings vs the -2 OAA. Do you have any inkling why there is such a large discrepancy? How are events such as balls lost in the sun treated by OAA? I recall Varsho has lost a few balls in the sun this season and wonder if this could be factoring into his results up to this point.

Yeah nothing surprising there. Given the amount of holes on that team they'd likely be wise to at least consider trading Robert given the king's ransom they could demand in return. I'd sell the farm for that dude without a second thought.

In the biggest news of the day a team announces they want to keep their young/cheap/promising players while trading their old expensive underperforming veterans.

Goldschmidt definitely wouldn't be the guy primarily manning the DH position given he's a great defender at first. It would likely be harder convincing Vlad that he should be spending a very big chunk of his playing time at DH. That's certainty not the position on the team with the biggest need for an upgrade given how there are already two key 1B/Dh types on the team in Vlad and Belt.

It's hard to imagine the Cardinals would be particularly interested in moving either of Goldy or Arenado unless they decide a retooling is in order after this season's disappointment. Arenado is two years older than Chapman and under control for another 4 years, so it's debatable whether it would be more prudent to make a run at re-signing Chapman in free agency vs trading for Arenado who may be on the precipice of the declining phase of his career. If it takes a ludicrous 8 year deal for a Chapman deal then Arenado looks all the more appealing for sure though.

I think a small tweak that could really help is to add a pitch timer. Instead of having to throw the pitch within a specified time limit, this would limit how soon the next pitch could be delivered. I don't know how fast the pitches were coming in last night, but slowing down the proceedings just a little bit would allow things to breathe a little bit and give the viewers a chance to actually watch the home runs leave the park.

Holy s*** J Rod is a machine. We shall see how he bounces back after that type of all out sprint.

The current regime has definitely been better than AA when it comes to developing position player prospects, but has been extremely lacking when it comes to developing pitching. I think the key to the type of sustained contention envisioned is finally developing some of their own starting pitching instead of needing to pay free agency prices to fill out 4/5 of the major league rotation. Berrios was technically acquired by leveraging the minor league system but actually retaining him long term required a free agent type of contract. What would you view as being a reasonable level of minor league development? The last 4 years has seen a pile of prospects either graduating to the big league team, or being used in trades to acquire impact talent at the major league level. I think using minor league assets to acquire good major league talent should also count as a win if sensible trades are made, but I certainly think the team needs to develop and keep more of these players to be able to supplement the roster with cost effective talent. These last few seasons have felt a little lean in terms of graduations, but there are a few potential impact prospects nearing major league readiness in Tiedemann and Orelvis so the cupboards aren't completely bare by any means. At the very least this front office has generally been adept at identifying which minor league players to keep vs which ones to ship out, so we haven't been forced to watch the likes of Noah Syndergaard bust onto the scene as top of the rotation monsters under this regime.

Moreno graduated last season so he can be included. I think Tiedemann and Barger each had good shots to graduate this season before injuries slowed both of them down.

Varsho has historically been a much stronger second half performer with a 118 WRC+ vs the first half 78 WRC+. The team absolutely needs to obtain another right handed bat so that it's possible to shelter both Kiermaier and Varsho against tough left handed starters when necessary, but it seems unlikely we've seen the best of Varsho offensively up to this point of the season as he's had success in the past.

It seems like it would be awfully hard to ship Kiermaier out and receive a return that makes the team better in the short term. I agree that it's suboptimal having both Kiermaier and Varsho as two of the three primary outfield options, but I think that's an issue that's best addressed in the offseason by simply not re-signing Kiermaier.

Who is making excuses? I simply stated there is a high probability the Jays would have played at a 100+ win pace if they were situated in the AL Central this season. A 100 win pace would have required for the Jays to have accumulated all of 6 more wins up to this point, which they would have had a really good shot at if they played a larger chunk of their games against the lesser level of competition provided by the Central division. Aside from the disastrous month of May the team has been pretty consistent win percentage wise. Monthly records are as follows: Mar/Apr 18-10 .643 May 11-17 .393 (6-10 to start the month, followed by disastrous 2-9 stretch against AL East opponents, ending on better note at 3-2) June 16-11 .592 July 5-3 .600 The May swoon seemed to have kicked off with the Seattle meltdown at the end of April. Leading up to that game the team was in cruise control with an 18-9 record. This followed a tailspin where the team sputtered to an 8-16 record. Since that poor string of play ended the team has a record of 24-16. I think part of what makes this team look so disappointing is that they have failed to go on any kind of sustained winning streak, something like 9 or 10 wins in a row, or a stretch of 9-1, 10-2 or whatever.

That Bo Bichette guy has been pretty decent as well.

The Jays are 16-6 vs the central division so far. They haven't played Cleveland yet but it's entirely possible if not downright likely that a team on pace for 90 or so wins in the meatgrinder AL East that has a 7-20 record in it's own division would be pacing for 100+ wins if it played in the central.

There is definitely a bit of credit to be given for knowing when to cut bait and get decent value on some of these guys, but the drafting has been a real issue for awhile now. Max Pentecost is another recent first rounder that ended up flaming out, but that may not necessarily been a bad pick at the time and more of a case of s*** happening that caused him to retire at an early age. I suspect amateur talent acquisition should be one key area for James Click to overhaul as there has been a lull of several years prior to last year's draft and IFA signing period where there really wasn't much impact talent added to the organization. Last year saw the likes of Bonilla and Barriera added to the organization but each of these guys are a lot of years away.

If I wanted any of your lip I'd undo my belt.

What has Romano done or not done to warrant all star consideration? He's second in MLB in saves while only blowing 3 opportunities, has a statcast page full of red and by FWAR is tied for the team lead in wins above replacement. Pop is unfortunately a bit of a victim of the options game, but as a player without options he's going to have to earn his way back onto the major league roster. White has done nothing this season to earn his way of the roster either, so his place on the 26 man roster currently has little to nothing to do with Pop's fate right now.

What's wrong with Romano exactly? He's second in MLB in saves while blowing only 3 save opportunities, and has produced a full win above replacement at the all star break.

No I'm not the opposite of the doomers. I'm definitely on the more positive side of the ledger, but to be opposite of the doom crowd I would need to be making statements about how the Jays are the best team in baseball, are a lock to win the division, have baseball's best lineup, rotation and bullpen etc. I can recognize this is a team with flaws and areas in need of improvement, but at the same time can also recognize the team is stacked with talent which hasn't always produced to what it should be capable of. I've seen so many online commenters stating how the season was over in May for crying out loud, and the proclamations about how the manager and front office should be fired every time the team loses a few games in a row. I for one can recognize that a baseball season is 6 months long and there are bound to be ups and downs over the course of the season. I've never seen such a sense of entitlement among the fanbase with the amount of negativity around a team which will be heading into the all star break battling for a playoff position. It sucks how the offense has disappeared at times with today's no hitter being one such example, but the extremity of the negativity that surrounds this team is so over the top that it's honestly baffling to me.

Another starter would be nice but until there is injury where would you even stash this extra starter? Arms like Francis could be sent down, but once Green and Ryu are ready available roster spots would be in short supply at that point.

A lot of those are actual comments I've seen from posters on various platforms this season, including on this forum. I don't recall seeing this much derision for a team that is actually had a pretty decent season up to this point. It's disappointing that they are battling for a wildcard spot and not the division no doubt, but to see the collective internet meltdown that's occurred up to this point is goddamn baffling.

I didn't say the 2015 team wasn't legitimately great, I bristled at the suggestion you could add both Ohtani and Trout to the current squad and the 2015 team would still be better. Adding two of MLB's best hitters and another ace to this year's team would likely create the most talented Blue Jays team of all time.

Completely tongue in cheek bro.

Just imagine one of MLB's best relievers at the trade deadline. Except in this case if things work out as well as hoped for Green is going to be a Blue Jay for many years to come. This could eventually turn out to be one of the more impactful additions to this team if Green can return to anywhere close to previous levels of performance.