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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. max silver
    Varsho is almost a lock to produce a higher WAR total compared to Kiermaier if he plays an entire season in center field. He's basically averaged 4 wins per season in his time in center field over his career and he's most likely a better center field defender than Kiermaier is at this stage of his career. He's a better baserunner as well, has a much better offensive projection than Kiermaier (106 wRC+ for Varsho vs 88 wRC+ for Kiermaier), is younger/doesn't miss time due to injury, and will be less expensive to boot. Literally the only thing that was better about Kiermaier vs Varsho last season was the results with the bat, but dig a little deeper and you see the two players produced nearly identical expected statistics, with Varsho coming in a little higher with a .303 xWOBA vs Kiermaier at .301 xWOBA.
  2. max silver
    I'm not huge on hockey analogies for baseball players but Merrifield is easily replaced internally by some combination of Schneider, Espinal and Biggio.
  3. max silver
    I can only assume you are utilizing Baseball Reference for some reason instead of Fangraphs which any self respecting baseball nerd is inclined to prefer. At the same time you must have missed Whit's 2021 season where he was still an above average regular. According to Fangraphs Whit has been worth 6 wins above replacement over the last 3 seasons combined, and according to Baseball Reference he's been worth 4.5 wins above replacement.
  4. max silver
    This does nothing whatsoever to outline that the team had a bad strategy as a whole with runners in scoring position. Your original quote says Whit wanted to just swing at whatever pitch came his way, put it in play and hope for the best. You stated that the team preferred a hitter to be more selective and hunt for a specific pitch. It would stand to reason that the team wouldn't want a player to completely ignore a sound two strike approach and just watch pitches down the heart of the plate for strike 3, and outside of Chapman at times I'm not so sure this was a massive issue for the team. The team was middle of the pack in strikeout rate with runners in scoring position (21.9%) compared to all situations (20.9%) so this doesn't seem like it was the major factor holding them back.
  5. max silver
    A 1.5 FWAR season would be his best since 2019 so the standards don't need to be set too high.
  6. max silver
    In my defense most of my post was perfectly on topic.
  7. max silver
    Is that because it was a bad offensive approach to start with or did the players fail to execute a sound plan effectively? Don't get me wrong I'm not saying there wasn't something amiss with the team's offense this season, but I'm pushing back against the idea that the issue was that not enough players were expanding the strike zone and swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. The team was well above average on the road but really bad at home. The clutch numbers were fantastic on the road but awful at home. Did they employ a different road strategy or did the players simply not perform at home?
  8. max silver
    Teoscar has historically been far more effective at turning the hard contact into production on the field vs Chapman. I really think Chapman needs to tweak his offensive approach a little as the flyball heavy approach with so many of the batted balls hit to the largest part of the park simply isn't a recipe for success.
  9. max silver
    We are discussing the team's offensive woes presently. The early hook on Berrios is a completely separate issue, try to stay on topic.
  10. max silver
    Obviously the goal is to plate the run. What Merrifield seems to be espousing (I haven't listened to the interview, only read through what Carlos presented) was a small ball approach where an out is traded for the run scoring. It would appear as though the team preferred to set up the possibility of scoring more than a single run by not wanting players to chase pitchers pitches in the hopes of slapping a run home.
  11. max silver
    You seemed to have purposely left out the quote where Bo directly stated the gameplanning was fine. He eventually stated that the Twins simply played better than the Blue Jays in a short series. There's nothing saying the team needs some sort of massive organization overhaul anywhere in his quotes, simply that everyone needs to reflect and determine how to improve moving forward. The team obviously thinks there was something amiss with the offensive strategy as the hitting strategist was reassigned to the minor leagues so hopefully Mattingly has success in the role.
  12. max silver
    Criticism is fine when it's constructive and warranted. This is seemingly a below average veteran player espousing the benefits expanding the zone and swinging at pitches out of the strike zone as if it's a sound offensive approach. Do you agree with him or something? What does Bo have to do with Whit Merrifield running his mouth on the way out the door? Kindly provide an actual quote from Bo instead of "Bo also made a comment".
  13. max silver
    Which months would those be exactly? Whit had a tremendous month of July (171 wRC+) which was largely driven by an unsustainable home run rate. It seems to have slipped under the radar somewhat but he was absolutely awful the last two months of the season. Over his last 49 games/206 plate appearances he really struggled to a 46 wRC+. This is second worst in MLB among qualified players. But this guy wants to talk s*** on his way out the door and act like he was some sort of offensive hero? f*** that noise.
  14. max silver
    I don't recall anyone else who has left recently who had anything bad to say on the way out the door.
  15. max silver
    For a dude that just produced a 1.5 WAR season he sure seems to be throwing a lot of shade in the direction of the team/front office recently.
  16. max silver
    It's not hard to see why Teoscar creates the perception of being a butcher as he makes plenty of boneheaded misplays in the outfield. At the same time his physical tools (good speed and plus throwing arm) allow him to make great plays as well on plays where he makes proper reads.
  17. max silver
    I simply think if what you have described is true that the team's approach would be far more sensible than hacking away at whatever came your way. That perfectly describes much of what ailed Vlad the last few seasons as he was expanding the strike zone and making soft contact on pitches that he couldn't do damage with instead of simply taking the walks that were presented to him. I think it would be a terrible team approach to want for the players to do the same kind of thing on a regular basis. The team wouldn't have wanted players to watch pitches down the middle for strike 3, that's an individual pitch recognition issue and not some sort of team mandated approach.
  18. max silver
    I think Teoscar takes way more flak for his defensive play than is really warranted at this point of his career. I'm not claiming he is a great defender by any means but the level of scorn thrown his way would lead you to believe he's a Soto/Schwarber level of butcher and this simply isn't the case. His last 3 seasons defensive numbers are as follows: 2021 -2 DRS/-1 OAA 2022 -2 DRS/-4 OAA 2023 1 DRS/0 OAA The 2022 numbers were at least partially explained by the fact he was playing much of the second half with two bad feet as the result of fouling several pitches off of his feet and playing through the pain. He's typically been around slightly below average in a corner outfield spot in recent seasons and not someone you need to avoid spending any time in the field.
  19. max silver
    I think the value contracts are going to come about if the team misses out on their primary targets.
  20. max silver
    So Whit's approach seemed to be expanding the strike zone and hacking away while hoping the contact scored the runner while potentially producing an out (maybe even greatly increasing the likelihood of this happening). The team's approach was to wait for a pitch you can hit hard, and if you didn't receive it take your walk passing the baton to the next guy up. Are you siding with Whit here? It seems to me that the approach the team was prescribing would lead to far more opportunities to plate runs vs what Whit wanted to do.
  21. max silver
    Yeah no doubt. Teoscar has long been facing the question of his k rate eventually sapping him of most of his offensive utility. His numbers were down markedly last season but his home/away splits are at least encouraging.
  22. max silver
    I suspect there is still a wide range of likely Chapman offensive scenarios. He could be the shitbag hitter that ended 2023 on a really bad note, or he could be streaky and end up around 110 wRC+ or so, or he could make some tweaks to his approach and pull the ball more on his fly balls and have a tremendous offensive season. I think the rookie version of Orelvis is going to be in tough to replace what Chapman offers when you factor in the entire package Chapman brings to the table. Orelvis held his own in AAA but far from mastered it as he only produced a 105 wRC+. I think the best course of action would see Orevlis being given a chance to first master AAA pitching so that he's more prepared for the challenges he's going to see in MLB.
  23. max silver
    Yeah I hear you for sure, but at the same time it's the kind of thing that makes him valuable to the Blue Jays. I just tend to think the club will be in tough to replace the value he provided for similar money.
  24. max silver
    Even at his very best Teoscar is still a budget version of Judge so I don't know if these guys are really good comparables. Judge just eclipses everyone else in baseball when it comes to the Statcast quality of contact metrics whereas Teoscar is more in the 80-90th percentile range.
  25. max silver
    Kikuchi provided results closer to a middle of the rotation arm compared to the number 5 starter money he was paid through free agency. He out WAR'd a player (Bassitt) who was paid double what Kikuchi earned through free agency. I don't think the Blue Jays can replace this value for similar dollars through free agency, Maybe if Manoah can get back to at least being a middle of the rotation arm that would cushion the blow if the team doesn't fully replace what Kikuchi offered.
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