max silver

I don't have actual data to back this up but I think that Martinez most likely improved his swing velocity/bat speed in order to generate extra exit velocity. As Vlad already produces top of the charts exit velo's the last thing he needs to do is swing the bat harder than he already does. Key for him would be laying off the damn sliders off off the outside corner of the plate.

Turner is being projected at this point to lose only 9 points by wRC+ vs Martinez who is projected to lose 28 points despite being nearly 3 years younger. The projections must be heavily influenced by the sharp increase in strikeouts. I recall reading some analysis recently that suggested it may be actually be beneficial for players to maximize their quality of contact and sacrificing balls in play a bit given the better results on batted balls this would produce vs simply slapping the ball into play. There would obviously be a tipping point where the overall numbers would really suffer past a certain point in strikeout rate.

I would really like if we had readily available bat speed numbers so we could track bat speed declines over time. I believe that this is tracked by Statcast but not available to the general public. Chris Black has referenced these numbers in several of his offseason Twitter/X posts. I fully agree it's really unlikely to expect Martinez to be better than Belt was in 2023, however I think Martinez is the far more likely of the two to repeat his success. Belt seemed to be rather fortunate with batted ball luck last season as he outperformed his xWOBA by 32 points as compared to Martinez who was within a single point of his expected stats.

It seems pretty likely that Martinez sold out for power over contact as he posted the highest exit velocity and hard hit rates of his entire career. It's hard to argue that a .301 ISO doesn't make the increased k rate absolutely worthwhile.

I can fully agree if the Angels were willing to eat salary this is a move I would at least consider. Having said that I have flashbacks of the eventual Tulo breakdown where he was constantly injured and ineffective to the point that the team paid him to go away. It feels like this very well may be the eventual outcome with Trout as well where the injuries simply force him to hang up his cleats for good.

I don't think anyone would refute that Trout is still a great player when he's on the field, but unfortunately that's becoming less and less common. Trout has only averaged 79 games the last three seasons. In the last 3 seasons Trout has missed time due to soft tissue injuries to his calf, groin and back and on top of that he has a chronic back condition. Although his expected stats were solid he produced the worst season of his career since he was a rookie, and he's going to be paid $35.5 million for another 7 seasons. Acquiring him for free would essentially be like handing him a $248 million contract in free agency. Is this something you would actually want to do?

Unless some of the money is deferred it seems this has zero effect on the luxury tax payout which is the more pressing concern vs just the dollar output.

As far as I can tell you didn't even have one which lines up perfectly with the rest of your posting history. Just angry diatribe after angry diatribe with no substance. That and a drama queen board "exit" which you unfortunately reneged on.

What point were you even trying to make? There was no downside to Atkins attempting to lure Ohtani to the Jays. If they succeeded then there is the obvious benefit of adding one of MLB's best players to the team's roster. If he missed as was obviously the case, the Dodgers had to pay a higher price due to the added competition, and Atkins simply pivots to the other targets in the meantime. MLB essentially ground to a halt waiting for Ohtani to pick his new team, so there was literally nothing lost in attempting to sign Ohtani other than some fans ultimately being disappointed that he chose a different team which was almost the most realistic scenario in the first place.

I think any team that is actually interested in trading for Trout can have him for essentially nothing in return unless the Angels are willing to eat most of his remaining contract. His ZiPS projections are pretty ugly compared to what he's going to be paid. Under a realistic scenario with likely time lost due to injury baked in Trout is only projected to provide about $127 million of total value of his remaining $248 million. In a best case scenario where his injury history is removed from the projections completely his projections improve a lot, but still underwater with Trout projected to provide $206 million worth of value. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-is-probably-staying-in-anaheim/

That's why I can still convince myself Bellinger would likely be worth it. Absolutely worst case scenario the team can pay part of his salary in trade if they decide to move him out and undertake a rebuild.

It's actually even better as the team wouldn't even get the first year of the deal where he was most likely to be at his best. I shudder to think of how ugly it could in a few years to potentially be paying Yelich and Springer $50 million for something like 2 wins between the two of them

I really don't know how you could think Shapiro is remotely in danger of losing his job. Atkins is in charge of on the field decisions, and if his teams don't start producing some results in the post season he's going to be shown the door.

I sort of think I'd rather have Bellinger for 7-8 years vs Yelich for 5. Bellinger is 4 years younger at this point and I would be less likely to start declining physically right from year 1 of the deal as could reasonably be expected of Yelich. Yelich also had a string of poor seasons before the resurgence in 2023, as he averaged only 108 wRC+ for these 3 seasons and was averaged 1.84 WAR/550 PA during these seasons. I simply think Yelich has every bit as much landmine potential as Bellinger. A major point in Yelich's favor was that his quality of contract metrics correlate a lot more with his actual results on the field but it's really easy to see him reverting to a 110 wRC+ type of bat in the near future.

It's actually kind of startling how badly Benintendi's defensive metrics declined in one season. The sprint speed numbers dropped modestly but nothing that would begin to explain a 10 run drop in OAA. Benintendi apparently played through various injuries in 2023 but even so I'd want nothing to do with his contract.

Those are up to date reports as far as I can tell. I don't know if MLB Pipeline has updated their grades/reports since mid season yet so those particular ratings could be subject to change. I'm not overly concerned about Roden's relative lack of speed as long as he gets good jumps/reads on the ball and throws well.

Neither of Ohtani or Yamamoto were realistic targets but Bellinger is a guy who I think the team has a much better chance to sign. Whether or not that's ultimately a good thing is certainly up for debate.

Roden seems to be pretty polarizing with the online scouting reports. Baseball America seems to like his fielding fine with potential to be average or better. BA Grade/Risk: 45 Risk: High Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 55 Scouting Report: “Roden has always shown elite bat-to-ball skills and approach. He has a stockier build with broad shoulders but is a better athlete than he appears. Roden is able to control his barrel with high accuracy, rarely swinging and missing. He shows fringe-average game power, but it’s not a matter of hard contact. It’s a lack of lift in his bat path. Most of Roden’s hardest-hit balls in play are line drives. He’s an average runner underway, which allows him to play an average to perhaps a touch better defense in the corner outfield. Roden has an above-average arm that plays well in the corners.” Fangraphs are notoriously hard graders compared to most other publications. 19. Alan Roden, LF Drafted: 3rd Round, 2022 from Creighton (TOR) Age 24.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/55 45/45 30/40 40/40 30/40 55 Roden has god-tier surface-level stats dating back to college, and we think he’ll hit enough to play a big league role, but because he lacks big power and exists at the bottom of the defensive spectrum (and isn’t an especially good outfielder), he probably isn’t going to be an impact player. Roden hit .383/.484/.640 in two seasons at Creighton and slashed .317/.431/.459 in a 2023 season split across High- and Double-A. He had more walks than strikeouts prior to promotion and a miniscule 5.2% swinging strike rate on the season. The Blue Jays have already drastically altered Roden’s swing, and he now has the same very upright, Craig Counsell-ish stance followed by a big leg kick that Barger does. It’s a good-looking swing and squeezes as much as is possible out of Roden’s modest athleticism, but the change hasn’t elevated his power to a place that profiles in left field. You can really limit his damage by staying away from him and throwing Roden fastballs, which he doesn’t lift as well as secondary stuff. On top of that, Roden’s feel for contact is a little artificial, and has more to do with his short levers than precise timing and barrel feel. He’s great at adjusting to offspeed stuff and pulling inner-third stuff with lift, but he isn’t dangerous all over the zone. We like him as a platoon stopgap or bench bat, not so much as an impact hitter. MLB Pipeline also views Roden to potentially be an average defender in an outfield corner. Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 45 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45 A Big East Freshman of the Year in 2021 and a conference Co-Player of the Year in 2022, Roden enjoyed a stellar career at Creighton, finishing with a .383/.484/.640 line over 91 collegiate games. He went from Bluejays to Blue Jays as a 2022 third-round pick, signing for a below-slot $497,500. After an unspectacular debut at Single-A Dunedin last year, Roden has been an on-base machine this summer, starting with a .321/.437/.459 line and lowly 9.9 percent K rate at High-A Vancouver before he was promoted to Double-A in mid-July. Roden’s calling card has always been his ability to put the bat on the ball when he decides to swing, and he makes pitchers labor with the way he can control the zone. Toronto hitting coaches have worked with the left-handed slugger to stand more upright to the point where he holds his hands almost comically high, and that’s helped him get a little more power on his swing. It still isn’t average pop just yet, but the overall offensive package is there to be a potential everyday player. A part-time first baseman in college, Roden has impressed Blue Jays officials with his solid play in the outfield corners, and while it’s fringe-average speed, he’s a savvy basestealer. He has enough arm strength for either right field or left field but has featured more at the latter since joining New Hampshire. Roden’s bat will be his primary driver toward Toronto, and with more high OBPs and low K rates, he could be north of the border in a year.

They are going to be incredibly hard to beat. It was reported that Yamamoto wants to play with other Japanese players, and the Dodgers already have the best Japanese player to ever suit up in MLB on top of plenty of available payroll space to match all of the other offers that come in.

It was far easier to be all in on Ohtani given the elite bat he offers which is backed up by his quality of contact numbers even if he weren't to return to front of the rotation pitching numbers. Similar to Bellinger I had a lot of difficulty in getting on board with a Soto trade given the extreme acquisition cost for a 1 year rental player that should probably be a full time DH in his mid 20's.

This comment is a direct reflection of how f***ing stupid you are.

I just read a report that Bellinger is seeking a 10 year $250 million contract. That certainly has landmine potential written all over it but I have a really hard time seeing the actual offers approaching anywhere close to that in reality given the question marks over the repeatability of his 2023 numbers.

It's a really weird season that makes it hard to know what to expect out of him in the future. His xWOBACON only improved a relatively small amount compared to his previous 2 bad seasons, but he nearly cut his strikeout rate in half so he benefitted by putting the ball in play much more. At the same time he also cut his popup rate by a decent amount reducing amount, reducing the amount of nearly guaranteed outs for the opposition.

I've poured over his previous seasons as well. His recent season Statcast numbers most directly resemble his 2020 season and would most suggest a 110 wRC+ or thereabouts. He underwent such a seismic shift in his overall offensive approach that I'm not going to place a ton of emphasis on his previous seasons where he struggled as I simply don't think that represents what to reasonably expect from him moving forward. Much like Vlad shows that expected stats/exit velocity aren't the be all end all given how dramatically he underperformed his expected stats, Bellinger might be a guy who breaks the model on the other end as a lower exit velocity guy who dramatically overperformed the expected stats. He traded exit velocity for making more contact, and this seemed to have led to a career high in sweet spot percentage which allowed him to park a ton of balls in the seats despite the lower overall exit velocity numbers. He didn't hit a ton of cheap home runs either as when his no-doubter percentage was comparable to his best years earlier in his career. Chris Black recently released an excellent X(Twitter) thread which outlines the overhaul and mechanical changes Bellinger underwent prior to the 2023 season. Bellinger started the season hot, experienced a short period of struggles sandwiched around a knee injury, and went on a heater for the final half of his season. Mar 30-May7 136 PA .300/.368/.567 8.8%BB/19.1%K 7HR 148 wRC+ 87.7 EV 15.2% HR/FB .326 BABIP May 8-June 25 55 PA .143/.200/.163 7.3%BB/21.8%K 0HR -7 wRC+ 85.6 EV 0% HR/FB .179 BABIP June 27-Sept. 30 .333/.375/.564 6.6%BB/13.4%K 19 HR 150 wRC+ 88.2 EV 15.4% HR/FB .337 BABIP Bellinger had two extended hot streaks where he produced 150 wRC+ values with reasonable BABIP levels and home rates on his fly balls. I don't think it's fair or reasonable to simply point to the struggles of his previous seasons and make a grand declaration that he's most likely a 2-3 win player moving forward. In his season ending hot streak he basically stopped striking out and parked a ton of balls in the seats when he squared up the baseball. I'll agree that there's a lot of risk in the contract the guy is likely to receive, but there's a pretty decent chance that the team handing out this deal is going to be rewarded with a really good player who offers premium defence and a well above average bat as well.

I'm sort of on board with a Bellinger signing. He dramatically overhauled his swing/offensive game over the previous offseason trading exit velocity for more contact by reducing how hard he was swinging the bat. He slashed his strikeout rate to remarkable degree with a new two strike approach that saw him fouling off a ton of pitches. There's still certainly a lot of risk with the type of deal he's going to command but I see him as the only player on the free agent market who offers the opportunity to add an impact player to the roster. He's the ultimate high risk/high reward player on the market as if the improvements stick he's a potential 5+ win player but if they don't he could just as easily be a 2-3 win player.