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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. Straw isn't a free agent so what a team would pay in free agency is irrelevant. If you have a better way to gauge value relative to contract instead of $/WAR I'd love to hear it. I think the Straw acquisition turned out swimmingly as he was a tremendous 5th outfielder, he provided a lot of surplus value relative to his contract, and the team actually gained IFA money when taking his contract on. At the end of the day Straw provided a ton of surplus value in his first season as a Blue Jay with $14.4 million in value according to Fangraphs. He can literally provide zero value this season and his contract would be even value to the Blue Jays in his two years with the club. He may be a little expensive for a backup player but he did a fantastic job for the team as Varsho missed half of the season due to injury. In a perfect world he'd receive far fewer plate appearances in the post season as both he and IKF were largely empty bats for the majority of the playoffs and largely dragged the offense down in crunch time.
  2. If Straw can recreate his 2025 season the $7.4 million is almost a bit of a bargain.
  3. That's only over 434 PA which is a solid enough result. I think over time once he's fully adjusted to MLB pitching he offers quite a bit more upside with the bat than this early projection suggests.
  4. I've seen nothing online to indicate that the Cubs are interested in bringing Tucker back.
  5. I don't believe the front office will add two full time players to the roster at this point as simply adding a single bat would create a stacked team. Adding Tucker certainly complicates the fit for Santander although maybe only for a single season as Springer's deal is up after 2026.
  6. I see no reason why the owners would have any interest whatsoever in a floor if there's no firm cap to go along with it.
  7. Do you honestly buy the 1 WAR projection? The guy was healthy for basically 5 weeks of the entire season as his shoulder wasn't full strength once he came back into the lineup.
  8. Is it even selling high on Barger? It's entirely possible he's just touching the surface of his overall potential and he has a chance to blossom into a cost controlled star once he's fully developed.
  9. Better fire Santander into the sun then. I still tend to think that a healthy Santander can be a highly productive member of the Blue and it's foolish to think that a single season ruined by injury completely erases a player's value. At the end of the day Santander is essentially being paid like a 2 win player and a switch hitting power bat easily fits into the lineup.
  10. I seem to be in the minority but I believe George is going to continue to mash next season. He checks all of the boxes for continued production at least in the short term, as he has elite plate discipline, keeps the strikeouts under control, has a swing plane designed for elevating the ball, added several MPH average to his swing speed compared to the previous season, the expected stats directly line up with the results etc. I certainly don't expect him to exceed 160 wRC+ again as he's 36 years old but I see nothing that indicates this was a single season fluke.
  11. Nothing about Springer's season was a fluke. He fully earned his results as evidenced by a .408/.404 wOBA/xwOBA split. I don't expect him to necessarily fully recreate his 2025 season but I do expect the adjustments that he made are going to be something that sticks with a normal age regression curve moving forward.
  12. I don't recall Springer having knee issues aside from fouling a ball off of his knee this season.
  13. Semien was 2025 Bo Bichette level bad defensively in the covid season before signing with the Blue Jays.
  14. Where do you find the present overall team rankings on Fangraphs?
  15. I had a brain fart there, I'll go ahead and correct the post so that it makes sense.
  16. I'm not a fan of Bellinger in the slightest as I believe he has a really high probability of producing 2-2.5 win seasons moving forward. His splits show he's just ripe for regression and I think he's in tough to recreate his 2025 success, especially away from Yankee Stadium. Have a look at these splits and see if you share the same concerns I do about the repeatability of Bellinger's 2025 season. Combined 125 wRC+ Vs RHP 105 wRC+ Vs LHP 180 wRC+ Home Overall 152 wRC+ Vs RHP 105 wRC+ Vs LHP 206 wRC+ Away Overall 97 wRC+ Vs RHP 79 wRC+ Vs LHP 151 wRC+ Bellinger was barely above average against right handed pitching, and positively feasted on left handed pitching. He was like a supercharged version of Ernie Clement with the bat and I for one have little to no interest in paying a star contract to a player with this profile.
  17. As bad as the Berrios contract looks at least he can still at least eat some innings at the back of the rotation for a major league club vs Castellanos who has nothing to offer on the diamond.
  18. I don't know why anyone would assume there is a single team that would want to trade for Castellanos as he's dropped below league average at the one phase of the game he was able to offer any value. It's shocking how badly this deal has turned out for the Phillies as Castellanos doesn't even crack the single win barrier after 4 years with the team.
  19. I can get on board with an 850 OPS line being a low probability potential ceiling for Murakami if he makes enough contact, but I think he has massive bust potential as he's already struggling immensely with the strikeout against NPB pitching.
  20. I tend to think Okamoto is a better fit for the the Blue Jays right now. I don't think he has the same offensive upside as Murakami who possesses nearly top of the scale raw power but I feel Okamoto presents a much higher floor and is far less likely to bust given the far superior contact ability.
  21. I don't think it makes sense either as Ohtani is essentially the only player in MLB who has a contract that pays for itself to the point where it's self sustaining and should have it's own separate budgetary allotment. Having said that I do believe there is some truth to this although I don't know what point this special budget runs out as there's no way it's unlimited in nature. Change the wording from star player to impact player if that suits you better. I believe the likes of Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman likely fell under this "special" budget last offseason as the Blue Jays were reportedly in negotiations to add one of these guys as spring training approached. As mentioned by L54 Tucker is one of MLB's best/most consistent players year over year as he's ranked 11th in FWAR since becoming a full time regular in MLB in 2020, that's one of MLB's best players whether you think casuals know about him or not.
  22. If the likes of Davidi are to be believed the front office won't necessarily be able to spend time extra $10 million on a reliever. He claims that the star players fall under a separate budgetary allotment that isn't automatically available to be spent on the non star players.
  23. If I were forced to pick based on projected contracts and not what I expect each player to receive in actuality I would choose Bo Bichette at half of the total outlay. In actuality I prefer Tucker over Bo, but part of the reason why is I don't think Tucker is going to receive the $400 million that's been projected on various websites. I do believe he has potential for 6+ win seasons or better in a fully healthy season but he's yet to prove that he can actually provide that type of production as of yet so it's hypothetical at this point. At any rate I believe his skill set is likely to age better than Bo's and he offers more immediate impact to the Blue Jays than Bichette. Bo's leg injuries concern me a lot and he's lost mobility in the field such that he's MLB's worst short stop defender and it's far from a given that he will even be able to provide league average defense at second base. He did look very smooth/natural at the position on one good leg in the world series so I maybe he can be a solid enough defender at second base to avoid being a massive detriment with the glove. Bo has been slowly improving his swing decisions year to year but I do share the concern of others about what happens to his offensive game once the hand/eye coordination starts to wane a bit.
  24. None of the realistic primary targets for the Blue Jays lineup have signed yet and I think this is the only major remaining priority for the front office at this point.
  25. I don't think anyone is going to be stealing Mason Miller from the Padres and can fully expect to pay through the nose if the Padres are to budge.
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