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Bobthe4th

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Everything posted by Bobthe4th

  1. Bobthe4th
    Yes that's right, everyone else agreed on a figure.
  2. Bobthe4th
    Was that a fluke though, or is he genuinely now turning into a young ace? Because if it's the latter, a season with no innings restrictions = no skipped starts = potentially higher WAR.
  3. Bobthe4th
    It's a terrible prediction tool for team wins because no team will have the same 25 man all the way through, and they are predictions so they will be wrong in part because because it's impossible to predict the variables like injuries and playing time. However, it's still an interesting tool to use as evidence against anyone trying to say the Jays have got a lot worse, and it'll be interesting to see in a year how accurate the predicted WAR values are.
  4. Bobthe4th
    38 WAR in total, i.e 86 wins. Pearce, Travis, Barney, Sanchez are particularly low IMO.
  5. Bobthe4th
    Steamer predictions for WAR: Martin 2.5 in 116 games Saltalamacchia N/A (not yet updated as he's on 0 games, they have Graterol and AJ sharing backup duties at a combined 0.1 WAR in 31 games) Smoak 0.1 in 115 games Pearce 1.3 in 91 games Travis 1.8 in 117 games Barney 0.2 in 38 games (Goins 0.0 in 36 games) Donaldson 6.1 in 145 games Tulowitzki 2.8 in 119 games Upton 0.2 in 88 games Pillar 2.8 in 134 games Bautista 2.6 in 124 games Carrera 0.0 in 50 games (Pompey 0.5 in 57 games) Morales 0.8 in 129 games Sanchez 3.0 Stroman 3.1 Happ 2.5 Estrada 1.4 Liriano 2.2 Osuna 0.9 Grilli 0.5 Biagini 0.5 Howell 0.2 Floyd 0.1 Loup 0.4 Sparkman 0.2 Barnes 0.4 Bolsinger 0.5 Dermody 0.0 Tepera 0.2 Girodo 0.0 Schultz 0.1
  6. Bobthe4th
    Sure, I doubt there will be a major swing either way. I think it's more likely they provide over (prob around 12 WAR in total), but you could easily see say Tulo and Bautista miss the majority of the season, and the total be more like 7-8 WAR. FWIW Steamer notoriously undervalues players - for example it's got Pearce predicted for 1.3 WAR in 91 games.
  7. Bobthe4th
    2016: Tulowitzki = 2.8 WAR Pearce = 2 WAR (in 85 games) Martin = 1.9 WAR Bautista = 1.4 WAR (in 116 games) Upton = 1.2 WAR Morales = 0.7 WAR. Carrera = 0.7 WAR Total = 10.7 WAR roughly an average of 1.5 each. Tulo, Pearce, Martin and Bautista should easily reach that average even if they miss games through injury and/or their skills decline from being a year older. Upton and Morales could, but probably won't. Carrera is very unlikely to.
  8. Bobthe4th
    Yes, I think it's realistic to expect those 7 older position players to have a good chance of collectively producing a higher WAR than they did last year.
  9. Bobthe4th
    I voted similar. Biggest chances for worse years IMO: Carrera, Grilli, Estrada, Morales (compared to EE), Biagini. Biggest chances for better years IMO: Tulo, Pearce, Bautista, Travis (can he finally play a whole season?), Stroman (better results, not necessarily performance), Barnes (if he's used more).
  10. Bobthe4th
    Realistically though all the old position players didn't have great years last year, so they've not got as much to live up to, and there is a good chance some bounce back. Martin and Tulo - both had terrible starts with the bat. Bautista - 2 major injuries, worst season in years. Pearce - bit part player. Morales - 0.7 WAR. Carrera - 0.7 WAR Upton - 1.2 WAR Pitching wise: relievers are so variable even if Grilli is bad, someone else will step up (Barnes?). Starters - yes Happ and Estrada may struggle to repeat last year. But Liriano wasn't very good overall, and a year of extra experience is a very good thing for Stroman and Sanchez. Sanchez with no inning restrictions too.
  11. Bobthe4th
    Gibbons decides the line up so....... I don't necessarily disagree with you though, Gibbons basically stopped using Smoak in 2015 and 2016 once it got close to playoffs and important games so it's not like he loves him for being a veteran or anything (unlike say Carrera). It depends on how Pearce performs too. Gibbons (and the front office) may think Pearce needs protecting because he hasn't played a full time role before. But if Pearce plays some outfield on days he's not at 1B, and/or he's really good then yes I agree Smoak's playing time should all but disappear.
  12. Bobthe4th
    Yeah at this point is it worth giving a major league deal to any of the remaining free agents when all Carrera has to do is not be awful until either Gurriel or Pompey is ready or a better player is available on waivers or a salary dump at the deadline. It'd be different if there was someone available who was a significant upgrade (i.e. not Jay Bruce!).
  13. Bobthe4th
    Gibbons said the plan was Pearce and Smoak would platoon at 1B. He didn't comment on whether Pearce would then move to the outfield on days Smoak starts.
  14. Bobthe4th
    So many clauses! And the options are flexible too: "He has a $6 million salary this year, and the agreement includes a $15 million conditional player option for 2018 that Holland could exercise if he has at least 50 pitching appearances or 30 games finished this year. If he fails to reach either of those, there would be a $10 million mutual option with a $1 million buyout if Holland declines to exercise it." Like this for the Rockies. If he's injured or no longer elite, they use him less and don't pay much beyond $6m and a $1m buy out. If he is elite and they are competing this season, they'll pay a lot of the bonuses this year (which will be worth it if they are competing) but then have the option to trade him once he picks up his player option, which is a high enough salary that he'd be unlikely to decline that option. I guess he could decline the player option if he's hoping to secure a longer deal but he'd be 32 by then.
  15. Bobthe4th
    Haha
  16. Bobthe4th
    Don't forget Floyd - he's more likely to win the longman role than Bolsinger.
  17. Bobthe4th
    Starting depth: Floyd Bolsinger House Oberholtzer Plus potentially Biagini and Sparkman. All of these players are just as likely to appear in the bullpen (Floyd, Biagini and Sparkman may be the only ones to start the season there though). It's not great depth to be honest, apart from Floyd, but he can't be relied on to stay fit if he's required as a starter.
  18. Bobthe4th

    NBA Thread

    Bobthe4th replied to admin's topic in Other Sports

    Only one All Star from the Spurs (Leonard) but Aldridge hasn't been significantly better than Jordan. Chris Paul arguably deserved a pick in the West over Hayward, but Paul is injured anyway.
  19. Bobthe4th

    NBA Thread

    Bobthe4th replied to admin's topic in Other Sports

    All Star reserves seem fair: East Reserves: John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, Kevin Love, Paul Millsap, Paul George, Kyle Lowry, Kemba Walker West Reserves: Russell Westbrook, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, DeAndre Jordan, DeMarcus Cousins, Gordon Hayward, Marc Gasol
  20. Bobthe4th
    If you liked him in Nightcrawler, watch Donnie Darko - another great film that's a bit different where he plays an oddball.
  21. Bobthe4th
    Looks like roughly $1.5million is a standard payout for MLB players, subject to the same potential invalidation that normal life insurance has (i.e. whether the incontestability clause has come into effect on the policy)
  22. Bobthe4th
    I really liked Nightcrawler, Jake Gyllenhaal is great in it. The end was also not what I was expecting at all.
  23. Bobthe4th
    Fair enough. I'd guess that'll depend entirely on how well they sell.
  24. Bobthe4th
    When we had Thole we accepted his was useless for anything else, but it was arguably a price worth paying to protect Martin. The Braves first choice catcher is only Tyler Flowers. Flowers has also said he'd be happy to catch the knuckleball: Dickey says he doesn't need a personal catcher
  25. Bobthe4th
    And infield depth to offset the possibility of Goins being claimed on waivers.
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