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keggy

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Everything posted by keggy

  1. keggy
    Hendricks was acquired by Anthopoulos. Hendricks for Chavez was post-Anthopoulos pre-Atkins.
  2. keggy
    It takes about 4 seconds of Google searching to find out that Tellez is a Spanish surname.
  3. keggy
    Starter in the offseason, reliever at the deadline.
  4. keggy
    Ignoring context such as win curve, competitive window, etc., the team that gets the best player wins the trade. The Yankees are masters at using leverage to position themselves to acquire the best player. Trading Paxton for a guy who might turn into Paxton was considered by most in the industry as a light haul. The last time the Yankees traded without leverage they traded Sonny Gray for a 40 FV outfielder in low-A. The Jays need to acquire a prospect who has a good chance of being better than Stroman in order to win the trade. Collecting controllable 1-win players spread over multiple roster spots is a lateral move.
  5. keggy
    This is exactly the kind of move a rebuilding team with financial flexibility should be making.
  6. keggy
    Nothing wrong with a minor league contract, but it's important to note that he's borderline unplayable at Dunedin in his current state. It's not fair to compare Ken Giles last year who had a mediocre year in the Majors underperforming his peripherals with a guy who put up -0.4 wins in while recording 19 outs.
  7. keggy
    The Verducci effect has been disproven repeatedly over the better part of a decade. The development team might be using different metrics to justify shutting Pearson down, but a pure innings increase is a poor predictor of future injury.
  8. keggy
    The lasting effects of gutting a system for a playoff run are probably overstated. Anthopoulos gutted the system multiple times and recovered within a couple of years with astute drafting and some self-control. I think what sets the Yankees apart is their willingness and ability to acquire undervalued major league talent, even when they 'should be' rebuilding. If the team performs well, they can keep the players; if they don't, they can trade up for better prospects. It requires more effort and risk than the classic tank and rebuild strategy, but they obviously make it work.
  9. keggy
    All those trades are a win, but the Osuna trade isn't in the same ballpark in terms of scale. Donaldson provided like $100-150 million in surplus value including 2 playoff runs with Lawrie the main piece going back. Wells was a replacement level sunk cost making $80 million in 2010 dollars. To add insult to injury the Jays got major league assets in return. Osuna was a good trade making the best of a bad situation. Donaldson and Wells are the types of moves that change the entire trajectory of a franchise.
  10. keggy
    It's very, very difficult to evaluate the models without knowing exactly what they did, but the problem is that all of those things are correlated to each other. Also, these principles might work at a population level of all minor league prospects but not an individual prospect level. Low minor walk rate is obviously somewhat important for a given prospect because it's correlated with his walk rate in the high minors, which is highly predictive of reaching the majors.
  11. keggy
    I thought Montoyo was fully responsibility for lineup decisions?
  12. keggy
    I think .500 is a very reasonable expectation for the near future. Our negative assets this year were so bad and given so much playing time that all we need to do is replace them with marginal players from free agency or low-risk trades (e.g., Aledmys Diaz). The problem is that the front office tried a similar strategy of adding cost-effective wins in 2017 and 2018 with very poor results (both of those teams were projected to contend for the playoffs). They'll have to re-evaluate their major league valuation strategies moving forward. Building a perennial playoff contender is a separate goal altogether and will rely almost entirely on how the current wave of prospects pans out.
  13. keggy
    This is a guy who has trouble with control throwing to college level batters, so no.
  14. keggy
    I didn't realize DeJesus was such a WAR king in his day. I think DeJesus' WAR totals are pretty heavily inflated from the pre-statcast valuation of his defense, which seems to think he played left field better than prime Alex Gordon. I basically see DeJesus as a league average bat who played solid LF defense.
  15. keggy
    Completely ignoring the political aspect of the tweet, I'm not sure how drafting a woman or trans person independent of merit would strengthen the activist cause. Forcing fans to watch a woman throw a 65 mph max effort four-seamer or getting the bat knocked out of their hands on a bunt attempt would make a mockery of the game.
  16. keggy
    Wall's profile reminds me a LOT of David DeJesus, a LF tweener with no power but just enough hit and secondary skills to hang around the big leagues for 10 years. If Wall turns into that it would be an amazing find, but he'll have to keep hitting at every single stop to prove himself.
  17. keggy
    Willingly rolling the dice on a playoff spot in May to save a few million dollars in arbitration would be pretty reckless, even with a large lead in the standings. It's much more likely that they want to let their major league assets improve and/or give Alvarez more seasoning.
  18. keggy
    Accounting for historical performance and an extra year of control for Osuna, he is definitely the more valuable pitcher on the field. All other points still stand though.
  19. keggy
    Bobby Cox very publicly pulled Andruw Jones during an inning in progress for hot-dogging a fly ball. This was when Jones was having an MVP calibre year. A more recent example is when BJ Upton jogged after a ball in the gap for a triple and Evan Longoria got in his face in the dugout.
  20. keggy
    On the positive side, Grichuk has a much higher floor than Morales who was basically un-rosterable due to his negative defensive and baserunning value. If Grichuk can handle center field over time, basically he will never be worse than a 4th outfielder. This is more of a curious low-risk low-reward lateral move similar to signing Maicer Izturis.
  21. keggy
    If Grichuk turns into a 7 win player Atkins deserves to win executive of the year. That's like a 99%ile projected outcome for him.
  22. keggy
    Toronto has had a top 10 payroll in all of MLB for the better part of a decade. Rogers is willing to pay for a winning team. The problem is that paying for elite talent through free agency is inefficient. Even with free agent signings, the team will need Guerrero, Bichette, and at least one other player to perform at an all-star level for dirt cheap before we can even think about contending.
  23. keggy
    As you mention, the precedent for elite relievers to contenders at the deadline is very favorable to the sellers. Andrew Miller got traded for Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield at the deadline, and Eduardo Rodriguez before that. The Cubs traded Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren, and Billy McKinney for half a season of Chapman. Brad Hand fetched Meija as you mentioned. Even the fact that the Astros gave up so much to take wife-beating Osuna off our hands shows how much of a premium contenders are willing to pay to upgrade the bullpen. Any return less than a shiny prospect for Giles should be considered a failure.
  24. keggy
    Guerrero's weight is absolutely a problem for a 20 year old kid with a history of injuries. Young Tony Gwynn was lean, stole 50 bases, and stayed in the outfield for his entire career. Fielder and Vaughn were fatter than Vlad, but they were first basemen with no defensive value and were finished as elite players by age 30. Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones were huge third basemen who stayed at the position, but they were built like tanks and quick enough to cover shortstop. Guerrero is one undisciplined winter away from looking like Pablo Sandoval or Kendrys Morales. I think we can agree that Vlad is a generational asset that could be worth $100 million in surplus value over the life of his controllable years. If upper management hasn't hired a nutritionist to count every single calorie that goes into his body 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, they need to pick up the phone and do so today.
  25. keggy
    Successful organizations don't agonize over fringe players like McKinney and Dwight Smith. This is similar to the choice between Danny Valencia and Chris Colabello during the playoff run.
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