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Everything posted by Brownie19
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Blue Jays (Francis) vs Rangers (Eovaldi): 5/27/25, 8:05pm
Brownie19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Game Thread Archive
I just read they seem to have "fixed" Gausman's splitter, so hopefully they can do the same for Bowden. And the negativity in here is embarrassing. Bunch of miserable c*nts. You guys just can't resist the urge to blame someone for every bad outcome (like baseball isn't primarily bad outcomes). -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
It certainly seems like these injuries are the type that feel good one day and not the next. Takes 4-5 days off, feels better, then a few days later it doesn't feel as good. And even when it does feel good, it would be pretty normal to suggest he just needs more at bats to get his timing back, but then as soon as he does, the injuries start barking at him again - or a new injury develops (I believe he's battling both a shoulder and hip injury). Then you're constantly questioning if it's a slow start, if it's the injuries, if it's just him not getting into a groove. This leads to a very frustrating situation and poor results. We don't know when this started, what the injuries are or how much they are affecting him. To sit on the sidelines and say "stupid organization - they f*cked this all up" is quite ignorant and shortsighted. This kind of stuff happens regularly - here are some other players who are playing terrible this year. Are all these organizations full of morons too? Texas - Semien, Adolis Garcia Braves - Michael Harris, Albies Red Sox - Trevor Story Royal - Sal Perez, Massey, India Dodgers - Conforto Astros - Walker, Diaz Giants - Adames Brewers - Yelich Lots of proven, established hitters/players who have been horrendous this year. You can guarantee several of these guys aren't 100% healthy and they are going through a similar situation as Santander. Players rarely play a large chunk of the season at 100% and teams are constantly trying to determine if they can work through it, or if they need to hit the IL and miss a bunch of time. You don't need to blame someone for every bad thing that happens in baseball. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
It certainly sounds like someone misunderstood what was said. It would make more sense that he was trying to say the injuries are limiting his ability to swing big and thus he's focusing more on making solid contact (or something like that). Santander is a leader type who just came here on a big deal. It seems likely that Santander is pushing to play through it, or perhaps it's just a pain tolerance thing and he can't hurt himself further (or the chances are low). Odd move to blame the organization for this situation when we really know very little about it (Glory). You don't need to make up narratives to hate on this FO - there's lots of low lying fruit to grab man. My takeaway is that he's playing hurt - that's why he can't hit. That's a good thing IMO because it means he may not have falling off the proverbial cliff. It's probably at the point where the Jays need to step in and tell Santander to hit the IL. I think they've given him a chance to try and play through it and it's time to let him heal up. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Do in-season projections take injuries into consideration? It seems obvious that Santander hasn't been anywhere near 100% healthy for a large chunk of this season and it doesn't look like the injuries are going away anytime soon. I think common sense just suggests it's unlikely he's going to produce anywhere near what we would have expected preseason. Although that frustrates me, I'm certainly willing to give him a pass this season and am not yet overly concerned he's completely collapsed as a hitter. I expect he will provide some quality seasons for us over the next couple of years (assuming he can regain a clean bill of health). He's only making $13M a year, we didn't pay him to be a star. -
Traded to the A's for cash
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Blue Jays (Gausman) vs. Rangers (deGrom): 5/26/25, 4:05pm
Brownie19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Game Thread Archive
Birdsong has that nasty kick change. -
Pretty interesting article from David Laurila on Fangraphs https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-stearns-on-how-analytics-have-impacted-a-general-managers-job/ David Laurila: I’ll start with the question I asked Atkins, Cashman, Dipoto, and Mozeliak: How has the continued growth of analytics impacted the job? David Stearns: “Over the span of my career, we’ve been inundated with more and more sources of information — information sources that are increasingly granular in nature, increasingly have to do with the processes of playing baseball, and not necessarily the results or outcomes of playing baseball. Those lead towards more and more complex algorithms and models that require greater numbers of analysts, and really smart, creative people to have in a front office. So, one of the greatest changes is just the size of the departments within baseball. The information has grown to such a enormous extent that we need more and more people to manage the information. That’s the first thing that comes to my mind. And then we need to make all that information actionable.” Laurila: The GMs I spoke to earlier all stressed the importance of the hiring process. It’s not just bringing in enough people, but also bringing in people with a high degree of expertise. Stearns: “Yes. That is certainly true in the analytics space. I think it’s true throughout the baseball operations department in general. Again, these groups have gotten much bigger throughout baseball operations, and so hiring is incredibly important. Ultimately, the people within the group dictate a lot of the successes or failures of a particular organization.” Laurila: Are you making most all of the hiring decisions, or are you delegating some those responsibilities within different departments? Stearns: “You have to delegate. If you include medical personnel, coaches, scouts, analysts… baseball operations departments right now are 200-250 people deep. One person can’t possibly do all of that hiring. You need the other leaders in the organization to spend a considerable amount of their time on the hiring process, on the management of those departments. So yes, delegating the hiring process is a big part of it.” Laurila: Has that always been the case for you? Stearns: “I think I’ve increasingly recognized the importance of the hiring process over the course of my career. I imagine when I first started, I didn’t really think about how the people you hire in certain positions really impact the entire organization. Now I have a keen awareness of that. So that has certainly changed, although I think it has to do more with just gaining experience in the position, rather than anything particular to analytics.” Laurila: Has the way you view analytics changed over time? Stearns: “So, I think analytics… when advanced information, when models, first entered the baseball realm, in broad strokes they were largely looked at in the player acquisition spaces. They’re going to help you acquire players. We are now at the point where information sources, housed within the analytics umbrella, impact everything we do. It impacts the acquisition, it impacts development throughout the organization, it impacts medical, it impacts mental skills. There isn’t a group within our base of operations that analytics and information sources don’t impact. “That has evolved over time — certainly over my time in baseball, for sure. I think that speaks to the growing granularity and process-oriented metrics that we’re able to have right now. Analytics, in general, can impact and serve a purpose throughout the baseball umbrella.” Laurila: Would I be correct in assuming that you were initially as knowledgeable as most analysts, but that is no longer the case given the explosion of information? Stearns: “Yes. When I first started in the industry, and throughout my time as assistant general manager, and as a general manager — in the beginning — I think I had a very clear understanding of how our models were made. I probably didn’t have the background to be the one creating our models, but I could certainly connect the dots on how a particular equation was being solved. That’s not the case anymore. Our modeling techniques, because of the sophistication of the data, and frankly, because competitors across the league keep pushing each other to get better and better… our modeling techniques have become much more complicated to the extent that what we’re doing now rivals what’s being done on Wall Street, or with any business that is dealing with enormous volumes of data.” Laurila: Keeping a core group of talented people you trust is important, but at the same time, can a group get stagnant if you don’t introduce new voices into the equation? Stearns: “Organizations can absolutely get stagnant. You constantly try to guard against that, whether it’s with new voices, with brainstorming sessions, with being very aware of what your competitors are doing, with trying to understand what’s going on in different industries. So yes, stagnation and complacency are certainly hurdles that organizations need to overcome.” Laurila: How do you bring people into the fold that you know will add value? Stearns: “Well, you don’t know. You just try to put together the best hiring processes you can. Recommendations are very, very important. But certainly, I haven’t been 100% in the hiring process throughout my career. I’ve been fortunate to work with some really talented people, but sometimes it doesn’t work out the way you anticipated.” Laurila: What is an example of something you’ve been wrong about over the years? Not in terms of hiring, but a way in which you approached a certain aspect of the game? Stearns: “Without getting too deep into specifics here, I think we are constantly learning about how different skill sets, how different attributes in the game, contribute to wins. That’s all we’re trying to do — win games — and I think we are constantly learning how different elements can contribute to winning. The balance of of those elements, in my mind, has certainly changed from when I first started in the game.” Laurila: Former players populate front offices, some at the highest positions. How valuable are the skill sets they bring to the table? Stearns: “For those in the position I have, or in similar leadership capacities, I think having played the game at the major league level, or at a very high level, lends an immediate credibility that maybe someone like me didn’t have at the outset. Increasingly, as our models become more complex, as our data becomes more sophisticated, translating that information and making it more actionable… I think executive leaders who have played the game at a high level probably have a pretty good understanding of how to make that information actionable. They understand how to get it in the hands of people who can actually make the impact of helping players perform better, rather than just living in a fancy-looking model up in the baseball ops office.”
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Blue Jays (Gausman) vs. Rangers (deGrom): 5/26/25, 4:05pm
Brownie19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Game Thread Archive
That's an interesting thought. The risk with RPers turned starters is often longevity (beyond the risk that they may just suck at it). Reynold Lopez died after his first year back in a rotation (shoulder injury), Hicks wore down big time after a strong start last year and while his peripherals are fine this year, his ERA is over 6. Lugo is the best recent example, but he lost 1.4 MPH on the fastball in his 2nd full season in the rotation and his statcast page is noticeably worse so far this year in his 3rd full season in the rotation. They were skipping his last start before his strained his finger. There used to be all kinds of "experts" warning against big jumps in innings pitcher per year (I think the number was 50 - if you increase your innings pitched by 50+ from the previous year, your risk of injury and/or reduced effectiveness increased significantly). Although you don't hear "experts" touting that anymore, so maybe it was BS. But - starting pitching is hard to find, so there's certainly a risk/reward conversation to be had. -
Blue Jays (Gausman) vs. Rangers (deGrom): 5/26/25, 4:05pm
Brownie19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Game Thread Archive
He didn't throw a single ball in the first 2 innings. Only starter to do that this season... -
Charlie Condon has 1 professional HR to date and is hitting for almost no power. The Rockies literally screw everything up don't they?
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How soon until the Royals callup Jac Caglianone? Their lineup desperately needs help and he's destroying the minors. It can't be long now.
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Article: Is 2025 Daulton Varsho For Real?
Brownie19 replied to Jim Scott's topic in Jays Centre Front Page News
How many PAs until those stats stabilize? -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Heiny to the IL with a conky and Josh Walker DFA'd? -
Article: Is 2025 Daulton Varsho For Real?
Brownie19 replied to Jim Scott's topic in Jays Centre Front Page News
I thought something looked different this year. I hope it's sustainable. Lock this guy up please. He's easy to root for and an absolute rock in CF. If he's a 115 wRC+ guy who runs into 30 HRs a year, he's a star in this league. -
The Boston Herald’s Gabrielle Starr reports the Red Sox are calling up top prospect Marcelo Mayer from Triple-A Worcester. It’s happening. Mayer will arrive at Fenway Park prior to the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader against the Orioles with veteran third baseman Alex Bregman (quad) likely heading to the injured list.
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Blue Jays (Lauer) vs Rays (Rasmussen): 5/23/25, 7:05pm
Brownie19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Game Thread Archive
Must win game. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
That's what I remember. I said "could". I'm excited to see him return - we need the pitching depth. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Jays offense in May is: - 3rd in MLB in average - 4th in MLB in OPS - 5th in MLB in wRC+ -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Brownie19 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
They said a soft target for Manoah is to return at the start of August. That could be a huge shot in the arm for the rotation. -
Padres (Kolek) vs Blue Jays (Francis): 5/22/25, 1:07pm
Brownie19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Game Thread Archive
I saw he posted something yesterday. Let's not wake the beast please? -
Appreciate the banter gentlemen. I love this kind of stuff and still find it so fascinating how difficult it is to predict who will hit at the ML level and who will fall flat on their face (even if they've tore up the minors).
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Padres (Kolek) vs Blue Jays (Francis): 5/22/25, 1:07pm
Brownie19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Game Thread Archive
Man oh man - so many people are just full of negativity and hate. Like someone has to be to blame for everything bad that happens. Sad. -
Padres (Kolek) vs Blue Jays (Francis): 5/22/25, 1:07pm
Brownie19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Game Thread Archive
So glad I'm wrong. Brooms baby! -
Padres (Kolek) vs Blue Jays (Francis): 5/22/25, 1:07pm
Brownie19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Game Thread Archive
It's not ideal, but we didn't use anyone yesterday and by not extending them today, most should be available tomorrow to throw on a B2B. This feels like one of those games the Jays never win. -
Padres (Kolek) vs Blue Jays (Francis): 5/22/25, 1:07pm
Brownie19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Game Thread Archive
They might. Bullpen is rested though, so JS has options.

