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Brownie19

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Everything posted by Brownie19

  1. Brownie19
    .195 with a wRC+ of 88 over 681 PA's isn't bad in A+/AA for someone age 19 to 21? Those are the numbers that Term was referring to. I hope he's made some massive, tangible changes and improvements though. I'm just not ready to get all that excited yet.
  2. Brownie19
    First - those numbers are still pretty bad no matter how old is he. I am using those numbers when considering whether or not I think he'll become a ML starter or not. As for his recent success - why are you so convinced it's tangible improvement and not simply a hot streak? All I'm saying is it could simply be a hot streak. There are LOTS of very s***** baseball players who tear the cover off the ball for short periods and never sustain that success. Orelvis went from a big time prospect with all kinds of helium to someone who's now a complete wild card. He was a legit star in A Ball as a 19 year old - like he had real production while being very young for the league. Did the Jays rush him and had that had a negative effect on him? Is this just another example of poor development within the system?
  3. Brownie19
    I wasn't ignoring it. The Cats Ass said "Looking of Fangraphs; there hasn't been anyone 21 or younger that has hit 30 for as far as they'll let me go back (2006) in AA." I was simply noting there probably aren't many minor league players who've ever hit 30 HRs with a wRC+ <100.
  4. Brownie19
    What do we think the chances of Manoah coming back as a legit Top 3 starter this year are? 15%? Chapman is what he is I think. He's the same guy he was last year. It's pretty hard to see Vlad reaching a 140 wRC+ by the end of the year. Probably more likely to fall into the 120-130 range. Is that good enough? Probably not.
  5. Brownie19
    Can this political nonsense please not overshadow my tirade and then legitimate question about what people on this board would do with the team in it's current state? Thank you.
  6. Brownie19
    OK - fair. How big would you go with the pen piece? Are we moving Orelvis now that he's hitting above the Mendoza line? Can this team afford to wait for them to 'fix' Manoah (something that may never happen)? Or should we add another starter right now before we fall further behind?
  7. Brownie19
    The only reason I broke out the recent hot streak was because when I spoke about his production over his past 847 PA's, I was told to ignore that because he's been great for the past 6 weeks. His BABIP has been historically low for quite a while now and is generally explained by his batted ball data. I'm not sure a huge component of it is bad luck. His BB% / K% improvements are obviously very encouraging.
  8. Brownie19
    C'mon - that's a legitimate question. What is this FO going to do with this team? Just sit there and HOPE we turn it around? or will they actually do something about it to try and change their own fate. Will they try all the gimmicky s*** like firing the manager or the hitting coach? Will they make an aggressive trade to bring in some help? This FO is taking a ton of criticism right now - what do the smart arm chair GM's think we should do?
  9. Brownie19
    Regardless of age, how many minor leaguers hit 30 HRs with a wRC+ < 100? There can't be many!
  10. Brownie19
    As I said - I hope the hot streak continues. Is 6 weeks (166 PA's) of good results a sign of development, or simply a hot streak? I just find it hard to ignore how bad the previous 681 PA's were. What do you think the chances are that Orelvis becomes a ML starter?
  11. Brownie19
    I guess, but it's still a .195 avg, 88 wRC+ man, with like a 25% pop up ratio man. It's been disgusting. Do we think this obvious "struggle" has helped, or hurt his development? Would he have been better staying in A ball?
  12. Brownie19
    Interesting. Would anyone here buy one of those hats? I would not.
  13. Brownie19
    How sad is this? That's probably the best case scenario right now. The real question is what will this FO do? Are we just going to do nothing and HOPE this best case scenario comes true? or will they start firing coaches/managers and trading losers now to try and change their own fate? My guess is they will do nothing and HOPE it works out. Unfortunately, HOPE isn't a f***ing strategy.
  14. Brownie19
    Is there any relevance to this? Does anyone think there's any accuracy in this type of projection? Honest question.
  15. Brownie19
    Good point, so before his current hot streak, Orelvis was hitting .195 with a wRC+ of 88 over his previous 681 PA's in A+ and AA. Let that one soak in. Let's hope the hot streak continues.
  16. Brownie19
    Piling new s*** next to the existing s*** pile isn't going to do much bud. Vlad is the largest piece of s*** in the pile - if you're going to get ride of the stink in Toronto, it starts with him. You can't build teams around losers. I wonder what we could get for him. Maybe a couple of prospects in the 50-100 range?
  17. Brownie19
    He's hitting .208 in his past 850 PA's in A+ and AA. Typically, we wouldn't project that forward to suggest he'll hit .225 at the ML level. Typically, we'd project he'd hit .150 at the majors. Now maybe you're correct that a player who seemingly only hits HRs or pops out in the minors will maintain his minor league average at the ML level, but .208 isn't .225. If he's .225 to .250 with a f***ton of power, then yes, I can see him becoming a contributor for this team (or another team) - Eugenio Suarez would be a good comp. But when Suarez hits around .200 - he's been f***ing s*** at the ML level.
  18. Brownie19
    I agree. We need flashy lineups and pictures at the top that nobody sees once we're past the 1st page. That is essential.
  19. Brownie19
    Amazing. What we really need is another .200 hitter who can't hit righties. How soon will he be ready? Start printing the jerseys now - I can't wait until he arrives, needs to platoon at 3rd base, hits some home runs and helps this team finish 4th place. It will be swell.
  20. Brownie19
    To clarify, I don't consider anyone with a 5% chance of becoming a ML starter to be a prospect. For me, a prospect is someone who can have a real impact on the team. I know that may be a different bar than some. I don't really give a f*** about minor league players who become ML bench players. They are a dime a dozen - JAGs if you will. Those aren't prospects in my books. Orelvis has hit .208 over his past 847 PA's (with a wRC+ barely over 100). It's sad this is about the only prospect we even talk about...
  21. Brownie19
    He's not a prospect. There's probably a 5% chance he becomes a starter at the ML level at this point.
  22. Brownie19
    Why stop there? I wonder what we could get for Bo, Vlad, Gausman, Berrios and Kirk. This team is s***. I'd hate to see Bo go because he's a fantastic baseball player, but he'll never have success here. Vlad's a POS. Fat, entitled rich boy who doesn't give a f*** about winning or being the best player he can be. You can't build around this guy as he sets no example for his team. Go back and work on your home run derbies in the DR with your buddies while eating grandma's fatty meals. Not many players waste as much talent as Vlad does. Think of the rebuild if we had a fire sale. Bo, Vlad, Gausman, Berrios, Kirk, Chapman, Whit, KK, Belt, Romano, Bassit, Swanson. We're probably stuck with Varsho unfortunately after making the worst trade in franchise history. The issue is we obviously need a new GM first, so we may need to defer this until the offseason. I just had to tell my 12 year old that we're cancelling his birthday at the dome because we don't support f***ing beta losers like the Jays.
  23. Brownie19
    I don't see what's interesting abou Ashcraft (I guess velo) or Williamson. I also expect McLain to drop off a cliff. That .441 BABIP won't last and he hit .232 with a 116 wRC+ in AA last year. I do see a lot of solid players - I just don't see them keeping it up this year and may need to spend to round out the team.
  24. Brownie19
    Everyone seems to be throating the Reds right now like they are this new young, great team and the team to beat in the NL Central. While they certainly are hot and everyone loves Elly - I just don't see this ending well for them. They don't have the depth or the pitching to keep this up.
  25. Brownie19
    That's the type of bullpen we have right now. We're 2nd in MLB in K/9 out of the bullpen at 10.35 K/9...which is producing the 24th best WAR, 20th best FIP, 14th best ERA, but 2nd best xFIP. Richards, Romano, Garcia, Swanson, Pearson, Jackson, Pop, White are all over 9K/9, with Mayza just a bit below. It's only Cimber who can't strike anyone out and I can't imagine he's going to see the field in meaningful games for a while now.
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