Brownie19

I agree with this. Very tough to expect Whit to be anything more than a 1.5 - 2 WAR player moving forward. There's obviously a possibility he can repeat, but I suspect it's down in the 10-20% range.

Royals win!

Dylan Crews is already hitting .333/.381/.692 with a 193 wRC+ and 4 home runs in 8 games / 42 PA's in Single A ball. Kid is a beast.

I'd say Cincy. Battle of Ohio and you get to see Joe Burrow. Ravens would be my 2nd choice.

Boy was I right. I'm out of this convo.

This isn't true. The difference is I'm able to see and understand the logic in their decisions and can accept that results don't define whether the move was a good one or not. A bad decision and a bad result are mutually exclusive. A GM can make several moves that make 100% sense, even if the results all turn out to be awful. The GM can control the probability of success, but they can't control the results. Hand and our current version of Hicks are GREAT examples of this. Should we have sold the farm to 'go for it' in 2021? Perhaps, but I must say that at the time, it looked like we we building a sustainable winner and I'd rather have a sustainable winner than a 1 and done team - so I was supportive of adding cheaper options in the pen and trying to find lightning in a bottle. Hicks is a good example of how added the "big name guy" and paying the price doesn't aways work out either. Bullpens are so unpredictable, that I generally support the idea of throwing a ton of s*** against the wall and hoping it sticks (like we just did with Cabrera). Should Atkins have known in 2021 that it would have been their "best" chance to go for it? I don't think that's reasonable. Do you think he ought to have known that Vlad would fall back to a replacement level player? That Kirk would regress to a slapdick hitter? That Manoah would eat himself out of the majors? I don't think that's a reasonable expectation and it's really unfortunate that these things have all happened to 3 players who should be leading this team to a division title right now. I don't blame Atkins for that. Nobody should IMO.

Of course there was and of course they knew that. That's why they cut him after 8.2 innings and moved on. There was also a chance he came in an pitched better - like he did with the Mets after the Jays cut him. They took a flyer on him and it was a disaster - one bigger than I think anyone would have predicted. Was the Mets GM brilliant for bringing in Hand, who pitched great for them? Obviously not, he took a flyer and it worked out great. The results are generally outside of the GM's control, especially with such small sample sizes, which is why blaming him is stupid. That's my point. The Hand situation is a perfect example of why blaming the GM is stupid. Could Atkins have added a RP with a higher chance of success at the deadline, it would have cost a lot more. Cubs had to give up a 4th overall pick to get Kimbrel at the deadline. Jays already moved 2 big prospects to get Berrios at the deadline and obviously opted to add some veterans arms for a cheaper price, hoping to catch lightning in the bottle...and maybe we would have if we kept Hand and just stuck it out, as he immediately started pitching better as soon as they cut him. Maybe their decision to cut him actually cost the Jays that 1 missing win that kept them out of the playoffs... Sometimes nobody is to blame - sometimes it's just baseball and you can't guarantee things will break you way. That's life.

Hand threw 8.2 innings for the Jays man. I completely agree his peripherals weren't great that year, but he did have 21 saves at the time, a proven track record and a history of outperforming his xFIP. The issue is - when do you pull the plug on a RP in high leverage situations? After 3 bad games in a row? 5? 1? You play Manager/GM because you're so smart. Hicks has pitched in 5.2 innings for the Jays so far and he's been s*** (4.76 ERA, 4.95 xFIP, 4.7 K/9). Are you pulling him out of high leverage situations right now like you wanted Charlie/Atkins to with Hand? Very difficult to know if a crappy SSS trend will continue, or if the RP will throw 15 straight scoreless innings...

Completely agree. Everything seems to be going his way this year and he's just savy enough to get enough production out of the bat, despite the decline he's in. No way I want him back next year.

I don't expect you to comprehend this, but 'blaming' Atkins for trading absolutely nothing to add Brad Hand wasn't a bad move at all. You can s*** all over the results if you want, but the fact Hand went on to pitch well for the Mets after the Jays released him (2.70 ERA, 9.5 K/9) tells you all you need to know about statistical anomalies and the volatility of bullpen arms. That is completely out of the GM's control and thus it's really shortsighted to blame anyone for Brad Hand sucking. Now if you want to suggest he should have traded for 'more' bullpen help, or better bullpen help - sure. Go ahead and speculate over who was available and what it would have cost us and give your opinion he should have done more. As for Hicks, he was coming off a couple of the best months of his career (xFIP around 3) prior to the trade. In the 2 months leading up to the trade, he was 10th in FIP and 18th in xFIP, 17th in WAR, 3rd in velocity for relivers. He was pitching great and he was the best RP traded at the deadline. If he completely shits the bed for the Jays, it's going to be pretty tough argument to suggest that Atkins f***ed up.

I just had to look this one up. Had no idea. Wowsers. Their kid went on to be drafted by the Bills and play in the NFL.

LOL - that wasn't exactly it. But he knew his own kinks and figured he better cash in before people found out. Tough to bet on yourself when you're creeping 14 year olds.

No wonder Wander decided to sign that long term deal with TB instead of betting on himself.

What do you mean by this? Do you mean across all levels in that the farm system isn't overly strong right now? You aren't talking about the ML level are you?

Cole Hamels just announced his retirement also. He threw 1 game in 2020, after a solid 2019 season. I just looked it up and I guess he was actually trying a comeback with the Padres this year.

Dude - it's just a poor comparison. One comp I've often thought about is Bryce Harper (with that bat). Bryce put up some VERY solid seasons at age 19 and 20, then fell off a bit in his age 21 season (115 wRC+, while missing time) before exploding in his age 22 season (197 wRC+). The following year, he fell back to a 111 wRC+ season. Since then, he's settled in more as a 140 wRC+ hitter, but did have a huge 2021 (170 wRC+). Vlad's wRC+ numbers have always been behind Harpers, but it seemed like a similar pattern. 2 solid, yet unspectacular seasons as a 20 and 21 year old, followed by an MVP type season at age 22 and then a drop off the following season. Unfortunately Vlad hasn't really made the adjustments this year to right the ship. They obviously get it done in different ways (Harper walks and K's more), but the results seemed similar for 2 very young phenoms.

absolutely I do.

stop with this terrible comparison please.

Ohtani is now in the Top 6 in the triple crown stats for BOTH hitting and pitching. Insanity.

Ha, you're so hilarious. Amazing stuff.

7th in MLB in wRC+. Enough of your BS.

dude?

I'm concerned you don't even understand the situations where people suggest "it's still early". The most common scenario is early in the season when the Jays lose a few games. Maybe someone in the bullpen blows the game, or a starter lays and egg or the offense is MIA. Some Jays fans are upset that they lost and these events happened and they suggest change is needed. Cut that player, bench him, trade that guy, change the lineup, fire the manager, etc. They often look at SSS results (which are wayyy more evident early in the season as hitting and pitching stats can be skewed early in the year) to defend their positions and argue the team should start making changes right now because every win matters and obviously the players with s***** results so far suck and should be replaced. If the same player goes into a slump in August, those same fans typically don't even notice it. Rational fans understand it's really stupid to make rash/significant changes based on a SSS and that you need to stay the course for a longer period. You don't want to start cutting/losing assets on your 40 man roster that you may need over the course of a 162 game schedule. That's where the "it's still early" argument comes from. I also don't understand how this is so difficult to understand. It literally has nothing to do with the importance of winning games in April/May - obviously everyone wants to get off to a good start and those games do matter, but you don't make wholesale changes if you start the year 7-12. That said - will you sometimes come upon the situation like we have with Manoah where removing the 2022 Cy Young finalist from the rotation after 4 starts would have actually been the right decision? Of course you do - and of course this happens more often with fringe players like Anthony Bass or Cimber and such. But this is very difficult to predict and often if you're talking about a player with a proven track record, the early season slump is often countered with a hot streak as they revert back to the career norm. I hope this helps.

I think most just doubt his production will translate at the ML level. Most of those comps you include had a higher slugging percentages in the minors. Shawn Casey hit .380/.446/.613 in 352 PA's in AA/AAA as a 22 year old. Grace skipped AAA and was starting in the majors at age 24. Keith Hernandez was in AAA at age 20/21 and in the majors full time by age 22. Lyle Overbay is probably your best comp and I suspect there are a lot of guys like Lyle Overbay who fail and never become anything.

Holy f***. So much stupid in here. Metafour hit the nail on the head.