Brownie19

same.

Not that I can see. Maybe I'm on his ignore list as he hasn't responded to a few of my questions. I can fly off the handle a bit, but I don't think I'm ignore list material. Maybe I'm wrong. That's certainly not what I was trying to imply.

That's essentially what we're saying man - you're a little behind.

Agree with all of that (and am not trying to suggest otherwise). The reality is that what you and I believe to be acceptable performance may be drastically different - and neither opinion matters. It's what the FO/Ownership believe. When you were a CEO, were you judged based on the promises you made to the President and/or BOD? Or were you judged on the based on the media talk to the general public? I suspect that quite often, those may have been different messages.

I'm sorry - I'll stop trying to learn and make personal improvements to better myself and my knowledge of baseball. Please continue to throw things that you think I've said in my face (with no proof - and of course I don't remember) from years ago. You must actually be a former politician.

Nah man - you're not understanding this very well. It would be more like this Olympic athlete says his goal is to win the gold - because well, what athlete goes in front of the public and tells you the honest truth that it's unlikely he'll ever win gold - especially when they're trying to get sponsorships. Athlete trains his ass off and finishes 3rd. There are always factors and other competition working against him and he does his very best. Have you ever seen a country kick someone off the team because they didn't deliver on their promise to win? I mean outside of someone who's extremely favored to win - have you ever seen a country turn on someone who finished in bronze instead of gold? Again - this is all perspective. From my perspective, we've been a contender the past 4 years and will again for another couple unless things go really far south. I don't use playoff wins as a measure because even the very best teams in baseball get bounced regularly with few to no wins. Others view playoff wins as the biggest measure (or one of them). They must view Baltimore, LA and Atlanta as massive failures last year. I certainly don't. Most of this is just a difference of opinion.

That's an interesting observation. Pre-season, you were really happy with the team (most were) and thought they had a legit shot. However, we ran into some really shocking and unexpected s***** years from several regulars and we sputter into a WC birth, s*** the bed and go home. The team may essentially roll out a very similar team in 2024 and that won't be good enough for you - we need to do better, which I assume you believe simply based on the results of last year. The issue is all the variability in the potential outcomes each year. If you simulated 2023 100 times, we might actually win the WS 5 times and win a playoff round or 2 like 60% of the time - yet rolling the dice with the same squad is deemed unacceptable, simply because it failed last year.

I don't think the suggestion that you should take anything a GM, Manager or Player says during a press conference with a grain of salt because it's just media talk, is pure wisdom or that I think I'm all that important. I think it's common sense. Yet everything there's a press conference, there are people dissecting what was said, bitching about it, drawing conclusions, etc. It's really sad to hear that people are still grasping to comments made 7+ years ago and holding grudge because they don't believe they've delivered on these "promises". What's funny is that a lot of this may simply be a misunderstanding or a difference of opinion as to what a "contender" really is. Is that making, or being in the playoff race every year? (which we've done for 4 straight years and are in position to make it 5 or 6). Or is that winning multiple rounds and contending for a WS? (which we haven't done). Are we a "window" team, or are we a perpetual contender? How many contributing prospects constitutes a "wave"? That all really depends on who you ask. I just got told we don't want to be like the Yankees because they haven't won the WS since 2009. Making the playoffs in 24 of the last 29 years (including 5 WS wins) isn't good enough for some fans I guess - which highlights the massive difference that fans have in terms of their expectations.

How many years of "contention" is required to no longer be considered a "window" team, but instead a perpetual contender? If we remain a contender until the end of 2026, that will be 7 straight years. I think that's close, if not past the tipping point is it not? When I think of "window" teams - I think they dart in for a 2-3 year window and then fall back into the abyss.....like, you know, the 2015-2016 Blue Jays. The reality may be that it's very difficult to build a true contender like the 2015-2016 Jays were and sustain that for 6-7 years. Very few teams ever achieve this and most (like the Dodgers or Yankees) have extremely deep pockets. If you want a better chance of remaining "in contention" for 6-7 years in a row, you may not be able to be that Top 3 contender on paper.

Are people really still clinging to some promise the FO made about "waves of talent" and "sustainable winning" from 7 years ago? I've told you guys multiple times to stop listening to anything a GM, Manager or Player tells you during a press conference FFS. It's just scripted media talk - they literally train people on how to speak to the media. I mean - perhaps they laid it on a bit too thick and should have known there are so many gullible fans out there who would hold onto those promises and throw it in their face 7 years later. Is there a GM out there who isn't trying to draft and develop waves of talent? Are there GM's who don't want to build a sustainable winner? I guess he could have told us the truth - that like every GM in baseball "We're going to try to draft and develop as best we can as draft picks provided the biggest opportunity for excess value, which will give us a chance for sustainable winning. But drafting and developing is a crapshoot - very few are able to do this consistently over a long period of time - and those that do often have a lot of factors simply go their way - so no promises we can deliver".

That's a fair point and we're going to find out over the next few years. He seemingly has a gift of being able to convince players to sign for a lot less than they are worth, but let's see if he can continue to draft/develop and manage the 40 man roster correctly. The reality is probably that no matter how good you really are, there's a f***ton of stuff that is outside of your control and you're inherently going to make a ton of moves that people look at in hindsight and claim it to be a poor decision. It's a tough gig.

How many current GM's would you classify as the cream of the crop? GM's you look at say "that guy is way better than Atkins"? How many - and who are they? I would agree that Atkins isn't a Top 5 GM in MLB right now. I mean there's only 5 guys in the world who are that good right? If Atkins is the 10th best GM in baseball right now - is that "good enough"? Should we fire him because he isn't Top 5? Who would we replace him with? Some guy who's currently outside the Top 30? Who are we going to get that's going to be better? Does Atkins have upside? He certainly could. I mean a lot of people hated AA between 2012-2014 and wanted to tossed him to the curb, only to watch him develop into one of the best baseball GM's in the world. What's the probability that we fire Atkins, hire someone else, let them reset s*** and move this team in another direction - only to find out that he's not a Top 5 GM either and the he has warts and needs to learn and develop more? I'd render a guess that there's a 90% chance that happens and we'll be having the same stupid conversations in 5 or 6 years - calling for the guys head. I mean we've seen this with AA and Atkins over the past 10+ years - not sure why we'd expect any other outcome. They aren't Top 5 GM's while they're here and so that's not good enough and we cycle through someone else - hoping for to find the needle in the haystack.

I don't get this. Cleveland lost in the WS in 2016 (after a 94 win season) and won 104 games in 2017 - then won 91-93 games 3 more times between 2018 and 2022. They've made the playoffs in 5 of the last 8 years. I'd certainly consider that to be a sustainable winner. It sometimes feels like anything short of being the Yankees or Dodgers is a massive failure.

I mean - if the rest of the FO, including Ownership and Shapiro generally agree (with my take), then whey would they want to fire the GM? For all we know, they went into the offseason with the gameplan of doing everything they could to land Ohtani and/or Yama - and if they couldn't, they all agreed there was likely very little else they could do to make tangible improvements this offseason unless the market for guys like Chapman and Bellinger crumbles and you can land them on a sweetheart deal. If Shapiro and Ownership believe Atkins did everything physically possible to execute that plan - and the price of Chapman and Bellinger doesn't drop, then it is what it is. You can't have the GM going rogue - signing Bellinger for $250M simply because he feels like he's going to lose his job if he doesn't win a playoff series or 2 this year. That's no way to run a team. Of course some fans will still expect Atkins to pull off multiple miracles this year - or they'll suggest they don't give a f*** if Atkins signs a bunch of average players to massive contracts - as long as we have a better chance to win this year. Regardless, they'll call for his head/job if it doesn't all work out. That's basically how it works. Offseason isn't over yet though...still time for markets to change and solid additions to become more reasonable adds. Also still time to keep working the trade market - hoping to find that perfect fit. It may happen, it may not.

There's probably a very good possibility that Atkins knows there's almost nothing this team can do to become a true contender this year that wouldn't completely sacrifice the future (while probably only increasing the probability of winning the WS by 5-10%) and I doubt Rogers or Shapiro are supportive of that approach. Fans may not like that, but it's probably true. The most likely outcome for this team is probably to land in a wild card and hope to hell they get some luck/momentum on their side at just the right time. There's a low probability that we have some massive bounce back seasons from Vlad, Kirk, Varsho, Springer, combined with repeat seasons from the rotation - which would probably give us a chance to win the AL East and contend this year....there's also a probability we don't get any bounce backs and Berrios and Gausman blow out their arms and we a last place team. No GM is going to go in front of the public and walk them through this reality - or tell them how they really feel. So go plan a parade, or go cheer for another team - nobody really cares.

All I'm suggesting is that by making some strategical improvements on the bases, it will help us score more runs and that teams that run the bases well can score more runs than their hitting abilities (wRC+) suggest they should. This seems like something we may need to score/win more in 2024 if we don't end up adding a bit bat or 2 to help the offense. A ton of our players posted career low (or near career low) BsR stats last year. Outside of the catchers and Vlad, there shouldn't really be any terrible base runners on this team. I was wondering whether with the right adjustments, if that's an area we can improve without many big changes in player personnel. Perhaps a different philosophy and a new 3rd base coach may help this year. Better base running, combined with a middle of the pack RISP results this year could push us back in the Top 5-10 teams in runs scored - even if we just add Joc Pederson and call it an offseason. Perhaps I need to articulate my thoughts more clearly.

Aren't GM's always looking to improve the roster? It certainly seems like the "we like what we have" response is always just to pump the tires of the current roster. It's just lip service to reporters who are asking stupid questions, knowing they aren't getting real answers. Rinse and repeat. It's just posturing BS.

I know one thing you should do - it's stop taking things that GM's or players say in interviews very seriously. That would be a good start. Did anyone actually expect him to say "well f*** - we swung and missed on a couple of big name guys already, this offseason f***ing blows so far. I really hate this team as it's currently constructed - we're going to average like 2 runs a game with these bums. I can't seem to find a team to give me anything good for Espinal - sure wish he didn't s*** the bed last year and tank his value. We need some more offense, but Teo thinks he's worth a 5 year deal and Boras wants the world for that 1 year wonder Bellinger - f*** that guy - too much risk at that price. I told him to call me back when he realizes nobody is stupid enough to give him 8 years. We're in a s***** spot here - we really need Vlad and Kirk to get in shape and hit like they can or this window is going to slam shut. Can't have Springer and Varsho suck goats either - need 25 HRs from both of them this year. Oh and I'm still trying to find someone stupid enough to give me the world for Ricky T - I read a rotowire article that he has red flags. I'm going to lose my job soon if s*** doesn't improve". I mean - I'm sure that's what he's actually thinking, but obviously he can't say that in public.

Machado's also a f***ing douche. Very easy to see him coasting his way to the end of that contract, giving zero f***s about his performance.

Dude - you're out here complaining about SP depth, suggesting Ricky T should be treated like an opener / Pearson. It's unrealistic to expect them to bring in better SP depth than Ricky T as your 6th or 7th starter. Not many teams in baseball have a stable of guys in the minors who are ML ready to go 6-7 innings a start. There have to be higher priorities than this.

That's probably because their wRC+'s were 114 and 112, which was 4th and 5th in all of MLB, combined with better results with RISP? Maybe you're right - BsR doesn't make any difference? If that makes you feel good - then great. I think historically, you'll find that teams with the 7th highest wRC+ typically finish top 10 in runs scored. I think if you simulated last year 100 times, the 746 runs they scored would be right near the bottom in terms of actual results.

Are there any SP prospects who don't have red flags? I mean, people in the industry write s*** about everyone - because they need to create content. IMO, it's not reasonable to suggest the Jays better go find another 7th starter because there's a chance that Ricky T is Pearson and won't be of any use to the team this year. You simply can't cover yourself for every "what if" situation. If Gausman has a major injury this year AND Ricky T is an injury prone flop - the Jays are probably going to suck. That's life. Most teams would LOVE to be in the position we're in, with one of the top pitching prospects in baseball ready to go as your #6 or #7 starting pitcher. This is an ideal position for the team to be in - yet here we are with the wet blanket crowd, complaining the FO hasn't done more to improve the SP depth.

How do you propose we add rotational depth - outside of just signing or trading for another SPer and pushing Manoah to AAA as the 6th starter? (which likely erodes his relationship with the Jays FO even more). Are we trading for solid SPing prospects who are near ready in AA/AAA? IMO, it's very hard to improve your SP depth in the offseason. Nobody wants to sign with a team to be their 6th or 7th starter - there's always a shittier team out there willing to give them a rotation spot in the majors. Having Francis, White and Ricky T as depth - to go along with a very proven, solid starting rotation that's going to feature Manoah as the 5th guy seems like it's a lot better position to be than most teams in baseball. Given what Montas and Giolito just cost on the FA market, it's hard to see us adding another SPer. I think that what you see is that you're going to get at this point, unless we bring in Yariel Rodriguez or someone like that - who would just replace White (who we'd have to DFA)

Very good base running is clearly one of the factors that allowed the Cubs and Cincy to score a lot more runs than their wRC+ would suggest. Even if we are middle of the pack on the bases this year, it could have a tangible impact on how many runs we score. We finally fired that stupid f*** who was standing at 3rd base, sending runners when he shouldn't have. He alone probably cost us 10+ runs last year.

If the offense produces the same wRC+ it did last year, there's a good probability that results in a lot more runs scored than last year - especially if they clean up their s***** base running. In theory, outside of Vlad and the catchers, this team shouldn't be so awful on the bases. KK, Varsho, Bo, Springer, IKF, Biggio, etc. should all be solid base runners. There's no reason for KK, Bo and Springer to be negative BsR guys. I wonder if the comments re: better support to the players might be geared towards cleaning that s*** up this year. This would also help lead to more runs scored by the same offensive group. We can't be 27th in BsR again in 2024.