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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    Yeah Jansen was basically a 2 WAR player in half a season worth of PA's from 2021-23. If you signed him to a reasonable extension with an AAV around $10-12m, then the floor was basically that (~2 WAR/80 games) and the ceiling is probably what we will see this season if he stays healthy. It was definitely worth pursuing, but it takes two to tango, and we don't know what either side was thinking.
  2. glory
    Contreras probably wasn't willing to sign his prime away for well under market value, so AA probably still considers that trade a win, but yeah, Contreras has looked better than Murphy since the trade. Maybe AA thought he was selling high.
  3. glory
    Yeah, Jansen since 2021 has a 128 wRC+ and 7.5 WAR in 832 plate appearances (235 games). It's unfortunate he hasn't been able to stay healthy because when he is healthy, he's an excellent player. With Kirk turning into a pumpkin, which the club probably did not anticipate a year ago, maybe they'll be more eager to extend Jansen now. If the team goes south then there's also the trade route, but as mentioned they won't be rebuilding, so it likely makes more sense to work out a long term deal with him. If he has the type of season he's capable of when healthy, then my guess is the AAV is going to be around $15m or so, give or take, but depends on the market. I think the days of him accepting 4/40 or something along those lines have passed.
  4. glory
    Agreed. If they are prepared to let Jansen go, then I'm even more confused about the team's direction than I was before. Once Moreno was traded, a Jansen extension should have happened within 12 months. Either he wants to test free agency, which is possible, or the Jays don't want to commit until he proves he can stay healthy, which I guess would be reasonable, but if you want a "sustainable contender" then you can't be paying market value on the players you extend. At some point you need some below market extensions early to maximize flexibility and value. This might be a moot point a month from now if the Jays are out of it, as they'd probably trade him at that point, although he'd be a QO candidate if he stays healthy all season (not that extra picks are that appealing with this FO making the picks but still).
  5. glory
    Yeah Horowitz isn't blocked. They've chosen not to use him. He's 26 with options left and the Jays would rather use those options than use him on the big league roster. I hope he's traded at the deadline for the sake of his career, assuming he isn't up with the team by then. He has an option in 2025 as well from the looks of it, so he'll be 28 by the time the Jays have to keep him on the 26 man roster. Personally I don't think a 1B/DH with no power is much of an asset, but he's destroyed RHP in AAA the past two seasons, and the Jays have a logical platoon mate for him (Turner), so his path to the big leagues is right there. If that's not an option for them, then that says a lot about how they view him. Or they are scared to platoon Turner, which given their ass kissing to vetrins over the years, might be the bigger issue.
  6. glory
    My guess is yesterday's price is not today's price. They really should have extended him a while ago, especially if they were willing to trade Moreno. Hopefully they bring him back even if they have to pay market value. They have nothing in the upper minors as far as catching prospects, and Kirk is a backup at best at this rate. They need him, especially since they will avoid a rebuild like the plague, so might as well keep good players in that case.
  7. glory
    IKF down to an 81 wRC+. Turner down to a 91 wRC+, and a wRC+ below 70 against RHP. I know these were the big off season pick ups, but Atkins can't possibly think these two should be playing regularly at this point. This is closer to what IKF actually is, and Turner is 100 so this might be it for him.
  8. glory
    De Jong having more home runs than Vlad and Bo combined is kinda depressing.
  9. glory
    A Barger/Clement platoon at 3B, Horowitz/Turner platoon at DH, and Martinez at 2B with DS in LF all seem doable to me. Even if it doesn’t turn things around this season, at least you’re getting a look at some players that maybe could contribute cheaply over the next few years. It would involve getting rid of Vogelbach, Biggio, and I guess KK to make it work, so not losing much of anything besides CF defense which Varsho already does well. With this club’s love for vetrins I can’t see them even considering this.
  10. glory
    Turner has a 71 wRC+ against RHP this season, and 98 since the start of 2023. The team has a 26 year old 1B/DH in the minors who is putting up big numbers for the 2nd straight season in AAA and is likely a platoon bat only. This is such a no brainer decision for a team that supposedly wants to build a sustainable contender with waves of prospects coming up, but maybe that doesn’t apply to the Jays anymore. I can’t stand having Vogelbach on this team but he should be platooned with Turner if he’s up here.
  11. glory
    I think best case for this season is to figure out how to get Horowitz, Barger, Martinez, and Jimenez into the roster, and let them get their feet wet in the 2nd half playing regularly. Not sure how they do that when the FO is not likely to rebuild but that’s the only way this season would feel like it accomplished anything. Tiedemann too but no chance I'm going to count on a pitcher staying healthy.
  12. glory
    Based on what I’m seeing on the field, I think it’s over too. This team is not good by any objective metric. I’m just saying WC3 field looks pretty weak this year so if they want to make up ground then they are going to have to win the games against bad/average teams coming up.
  13. glory
    6 vs CWS, 4 vs DET, 3 vs PIT. The Jays have to pull off something like 10-3 in this stretch, or 9-4 at worst (which would put them at .500 before their series with BAL). The Tigers are decent now and the Pirates games could involve Skenes/Jones, so I wouldn’t count on it, but they need some type of run to make up ground. Luckily the Wild Card field looks weaker than normal with the Astros having a down year and the Rays looking human due to injuries but still going to be a massive uphill battle.
  14. glory
    Manoah has looked good so far.
  15. glory
    They’ll get Cole and Dominguez back soon as well. That team looks dangerous.
  16. glory
    Hoskins has a 132 wRC+ and 9 home runs as well. It’s crazy that in a weak FA market, the only position that had actual options was DH, and the Jays ended up going with a 40 year old on the decline.
  17. glory
    Add Yariel Rodriguez to that group (0.1 WAR), and Otto Lopez has a higher WAR than the Jays entire off season right now. Sadly we can’t even say “if the Jays kept him” because you know damn well he wouldn’t have 3 home runs in May if he was still in this org. I think the off season moves are playing out as expected. Green getting hurt obviously sucks but he’s a RP so volatility in any form kinda comes with the territory. Not surprised with any of the other results. The position player adds in the off season were gross.
  18. glory
    Shapiro’s contract ends after 2025 and Atkins after 2026. They have no in incentive to rebuild, and they won’t. At most they will trade the impending free agents, slither under the luxury tax to reset the penalties, and try again in 2025. I don’t see any realistic scenario where they trade anyone controlled through 2025 unless it’s someone insignificant. Maybe Atkins surprises us and gets a haul for Kikuchi and Garcia, but I have a feeling that Chris Black guy on Twitter will be working overtime trying to gas up the slapdick prospects the Jays get back at the deadline.
  19. glory
    Haven't seen this much s***ing on the team (by the mainstream media and now Keegan) in a while, changes are coming Not sure why he starts with “I don’t understand why” when a month ago he got the explanation.
  20. glory
    It’s incredible how similar this season (and the off season leading up to it) has been to 2017. They’ll even repeat the biggest mistake they made in 2017 which was not starting the rebuild at the deadline. I’m legit terrified of what the Jays get back for Kikuchi, Jansen, Garcia, etc.
  21. glory
    Justin Turner now with a 97 wRC+ in 150 PA, and that’s with a 187 wRC+ against LHP. A well run team probably runs him in a platoon with Horowitz, but he’s playing everyday until he’s traded at the deadline most likely.
  22. glory
    If there was nothing Atkins could do to fix the offense, then why stick with the same core in 2024? If you don’t want to blame Atkins for the offense due to lack of options, then fine (I agree the FA options sucked) but then why make the most boring cosmetic changes (KK, Turner, IKF) to a core that you know wouldn’t be good enough when you could have sold reasonably high on Bichette (for example) and pivoted from the core? I think that’s the point of contention here. Atkins wasn’t able to put lipstick on a pig (aka the offense) but he had other options that he decided not to pursue. So either way, he (and/or Shapiro) deserve blame for this mess. What you want to blame them for is just semantics at this point.
  23. glory
    That's the sad part. If the Jays hold on to win Game 2 (which they should have), then who knows what the trajectory of this franchise would have been. Maybe they win Game 3 and then lose to the Astros, but in that scenario they may not have been eager to change the direction of the team so drastically. The 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL. It was a really good team even with the pitching and defensive warts. They could have cleaned those things up without making it the most boring vanilla "need 4 singles to score 1 run" team in baseball. The 2023 and now 2024 seasons have been the most frustrating Jays seasons I can recall watching. I really don't want this team within striking distance in July. This is a bad team in just about every objective metric. Even if they don't start a rebuild this July, a bad season has to at least cause some change within the org.
  24. glory
    A Rays perfect game the night before Atkins is available to the media would be kinda funny.
  25. glory
    This might be the only solution that makes sense for this front office.
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