glory

Kikuchi to the Dodgers seems inevitable.

Yes, especially in the AL East. Vlad and Bo would have to have monster FA years. The rotation would have to stay healthy and effective despite age (Gausman 34, Bassitt 36) and issues with stuff/underlying numbers (Berrios). The pen is highly volatile to begin with, but will be losing Garcia, and there's questions about health with Romano. Springer will be one year older. Varsho has an 87 wRC+ in his last 900 plate appearances and will be 29 next season. I mean, I guess it's possible with the extra WC spot and if they have a great off season (plus internal development), but that's asking a lot.

I’ve said before I think a Vlad extension eventually gets done. Probably will be an ownership call and might be for a term/dollar amount that will make people squirm but I think it happens. Bichette is the one who seems mentally checked out, and with a skill set not worth a long term deal but if they are fine with losing him for nothing after next season or being in this same position next July, then it is what it is. As long as he’s not extended for big years/dollars, that’s all that matters in the end.

Robert Murray: Not surprising. I’d imagine they would have done this even if Bo was hitting like 2019-23 Bo. They didn’t learn their lesson. We just have to hope 2025 doesn’t mirror 2018 as much as 2024 has mirrored 2017.

You're not trading Bo to open up a spot for Jimenez, that's just an ancillary part to it. Just like you wouldn't trade Vlad with Horwitz in mind, you'd trade him to maximize value before he leaves, and then stick Horwitz at 1B full time as the in house replacement. In this case, Bo already has one foot out the door, so you're just speeding up the process. As far as trading Bo and competing in 2025, as unlikely as it would be to compete without Bo, how likely it is to compete with him? I wouldn't rule it out completely, especially with some smart off season moves (and a new front office!!), but the 2023 team required completely unsustainable pitching performance/health to sneak into the playoffs, and the 2024 team is the result of that unsustainability crashing back to earth. What can we reasonably expect with this same group one year older and one year closer to FA in 2025? You can trade Bo and still make an effort to compete. Ideally you get a piece or two for him that could help the 2025-30 teams, stick Jimenez at short, and then reallocate the saved money to fill another need(s). Or use that money to sign one of the FA SS's. Whatever, just be a little creative and retool rather than what we saw in 2017-18. I'm not saying that's going to work any better than running it back, but if you're going to aim to contend every year due to ownership mandate, then you can't expect to just let important FAs walk without getting anything in return when the team can't draft or develop talent on its own. Of course, if Bo is hurt, or other teams are offering literally nothing, then that changes things, but I have a hard time believing Bo's value would be that shot with 3 bad months at his age and the fact that he has one more cost certain year of control.

That blurb from Law about Moore has Blue Jays written all over it. I liked the Nimmala pick last season, but I'm a little nervous about what the Jays will do here.

I have no idea if it will work (it probably won't), but I'd have no issues with the Jays converting Pearson to a SP. I thought the moment he became a short reliever that his career would blossom, but if he's an average RP, then he really holds no value. Stretch him out and see if you catch lightning in a bottle.

Unfortunately there is no comparison that I can think of as far as a player of Bo's caliber traded at low value with 1.5 years of control left. Really depends on what the offers are. If it's Billy McKinney 2.0, then obviously not, but I don't think the offers will be quite that bad with the extra year of control in there. Other teams will view him as a buy low, so the offers won't be 100% what his 2019-23 value would have been, but you have to weigh the pros and cons pretty heavily here. They also have an internal SS option who might be the best prospect on the team (not necessarily a huge compliment but still a reality), and that player is out of options after this season. At some point the Jays need more young players in years 0-6 (closer to 0 than 6) on the roster filling spots, and that's true even if they plan to contend in 2025.

Honestly, if he's healthy by the deadline, then I think I'd still move him. The off season is going to be difficult since there will be competition (Adames/Kim in free agency), and next July he will have 2 months of control left so the return is going to be diminished either way. Selling low on Bo and seeing him have a big 2025 will be a lot less hurtful than seeing Vlad succeed elsewhere because you get the sense Bo's had one foot out the door for a while now, and it's not like he's been a perpetual underachiever. He gave the Jays 4 really good seasons with a very risky profile for dirt cheap. Take the win there. Keeping him in 2025 with no shot at an extension and hoping he has one more .360 BABIP/5% BB% season in him before he bounces seems like a really bad way to go. We've seen how this movie ends.

From what I read, if no one claims KK, then the Jays can keep him, so it’s really not a big deal. He won’t get claimed. This is just a prayer that someone takes his salary, which isn’t happening barring some desperation by a team out there.

And unlike JD, Bichette comes with a very risky offensive profile (BABIP, low walks), so while I'd still expect Bo to bounce back next season, it's far from a certainty. Very slim chance a team trades anything good for him in the winter when that team can keep their prospects and just sign someone like Adames or Kim. He's either traded this July (unlikely), next July (probably), or leaves as a FA (if the 2025 team competes for a playoff spot). Not ideal.

I’ve said before, trade Bichette at the deadline. It won’t be for 100% value but 1) waiting doesn’t guarantee the return will be better (see Donaldson 2018) and 2) the extra year of control could balance out the performance in a trade return. It won’t be a franchise altering return but the Jays have an internal replacement and need cheap, young talent badly that they have been unable to draft themselves.

Gord Ash was the worst GM in Jays history, but his seasons were generally more entertaining than 2023-24 and the JP Ricciardi years. The JP years in particular were some of the blandest teams imaginable. Lose Delgado and "re-create him in the aggregate" with Koskie and Hillenbrand, draft 22 year old white dudes pretty much in every round for years, ignore the international market completely, etc. Halladay's prime was the only thing that made that era watchable. Atkins was actually fine with me from 2020-22, but lost me completely in 2023, and it got worse in 2024.

The Yankees biggest strength is creating/repairing relievers, so it will be interesting to see what they can do with Mayza despite the lower velocity. Probably not much but who knows.

Were Happ and Stroman the best SP’s available in the 2018 and 2019 deadlines respectively? I don’t recall but if they weren’t the best, then they were damn close. Atkins can still mess this up. Regardless, the Orioles would be an interesting trade partner. If any team has expendable position player prospect depth, it’s them. Joey Ortiz was expendable to them while he’d have been the Jays best prospect by a landslide before this season. They’d likely have interest in Kooch and Garcia (if healthy).

Dodgers have a bunch of injuries to the rotation and want every good Japanese player in the Majors, so I think that’s where he ends up. Plus they have a bunch of ready or near ready prospects/young players, and if Atkins is making the trades, then that’s what he’s going to be aiming for in return. The Jays really need to get this trade right. Him and Garcia are the only ones who might actually get a decent return. The others will get Thomas Hatch and Forrest Wall 2.0’s.

I could see Berrios being shopped in the off season if someone like Click or some other actual nerd took over, but if it's the same FO trying to put together a winning team in 2025, then I just don't see any of the top 3 (Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios) being moved. Tiedemann is still a big question mark, Manoah is hurt, and they don't seem in any rush to promote Macko (unless I missed it) who is the only other pitching prospect in the org with a pulse, so they will need innings from others. I'd bring Jansen back as well, whether by extending him now or trading him + bringing him back as a FA. His 2024 season has been disappointing (last 120 PA or so have been horrendous), but I think the offensive profile is worth betting on, especially now if his price has dropped due to a dip in performance. If you can get him at an AAV around $10m or slightly less, then it's a no brainer. But depends on what his market is. I'm really curious who is the one making the deals at the deadline. Atkins is obviously the GM but if his standing with the org is on thin ice then it doesn't make sense for him to make these deals.

Wins aren’t as important as team direction. If the team has already internally decided to sell at least the impending FAs and use the rest of 2024 on the prospects, then they can win or lose as much as they want. It is ultimately irrelevant, especially with the draft lottery now. I’d rather the prospects look good and if leads to wins then that might be a good thing for future teams, but if they end up losing 95 games then so be it. I just don’t want to watch an old, expensive, bad team.

If Horwitz is a passable/average 2B, then that’s a much better outcome for him and the team than if he were a 1B/DH. His bat obviously plays better at 2B and if the team decides to extend Vlad (which I still expect to happen) then it’s a better roster fit as well. Still too small of a defensive sample though.

Zach Pop should be warming up right now. Our high leverage tank leader.

KK allowed to hit a LHB but Horwitz pulled for DS against a lefty. If the Jays don’t trade some vetrins soon, a season that is already unwatchable will be downright torture.

Nimmala up to a 106 wRC+ in A ball now. Holding his own at 18 after a brutal start. Still very much a boom or bust prospect, but the season certainly looks a little better now. A front office change, if/when it happens, would come at a great time for him and others in low A. Don't corrupt anyone with even a modicum of upside by telling them to level their swing to hit more grounders in order to reduce swing and miss. Let that mindset drift off with Atkins, Donnie, and the rest of the think tank currently in charge.

Varsho is closing in on 900 PA since the trade. Streaky or not, the 89 wRC+ combined with the horrid expected/statcast data is probably more in line with what he is. Still a useful player, probably around a 2.5-3 WAR as long as his defense remains, but clearly not the type of player the Jays were envisioning when they traded Moreno for him. At least I hope not.