glory

This is honestly the most positive development of the season so far. They can't put lipstick on a pig. They stink and it's clear as day. If they were flirting with .500 with a -60 run differential by mid July, the FO could have easily gotten delusional, but that ain't happening now.

The only reason to keep the core group (aside from wanting to sell tickets in hopes that the team contends) is if you believe a new hitting coach/philosophy/preparation can make the existing talent better. Maybe that could work, maybe it won't. It's a risk with only a year of control left on Vlad/Bo. Honestly, that Mattingly quote about "damage is a scary word" has been brought up before, but the followup to that was even scarier: “I don’t really see us as a huge power club. But we do have a chance for, I think, four or five guys hitting 20 or above. That would be good for us.” They literally have a 25 year old with an elite statcast page that hit 80 home runs in 2021-22, but as soon as Donnie came on board, now he maybe, possibly, if he's lucky, could get to 20 or above. Even though he drills everything into the ground at an even higher rate than before, and his ability to hit a 4SFB suddenly disappeared out of thin air. Something isn't right. So between that and Bo having a down year, you could certainly argue that bringing them back for one more try with a new coaching staff would be more logical than having Atkins trade them for 42 years of control on the most mid prospects imaginable.

What makes matters more difficult as far as the GM situation is that Shapiro himself is a FA after 2025. Do you really want him hiring the next GM if he's gone in a year? Click is already in house so I guess they can go that route, but Chaim Bloom should be a cautionary tale for taking someone from the Rays org and expecting them to be great. Click's sample size in Houston wasn't big enough to really judge as their core was already in place when he took over. The only thing I remember about Click in Houston is he allegedly wanted to trade Urquidy for 2 months of Willson Contreras at the 2022 deadline and was vetoed by either Baker or ownership (or both). They ended up winning the WS anyway. I have no issues with waiting until the winter for the big decisions (Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc) to be made by the new GM. With Bo it might be the smart thing to do given how bad he's been, and Gausman will still have 2 years of control left in the winter so as long as he finishes reasonably well he should still have value. It's Vlad that is more complicated.

Yeah, at the minimum they have to get rid of Atkins, Schneider, Guillermo, Mattingly, and Shane Farrell. Ideally just get rid of Shapiro and the new president will take care of the rest.

Springer now has a 65 wRC+ in 295 PA this season. I'm kinda curious how low that wRC+ can go. Just get him to 600 PA and let's make some history.

The success the Guardians have had since Shapiro left will give me some hope. Thankfully the contract picture other than Berrios' deal isn't bad post 2026, so a new GM can have a clean slate, but Shapiro has to go as well.

Springer in the lineup everyday, Mayza in high leverage spots....this team has to be tanking, right?

Springer hitting like Rey Ordonez for 600 plate appearances sounds fun.

Yeah I think the defense is the key. If he's a legit above average SS defensively, then you have to consider trading Bo and giving Jimenez 2 months of big league time to end the season. According to Savant's minor league data, his average EV and hard hit % is right in line with Orelvis' on the season. It's hard to get a sense of what AAA numbers mean nowadays, but I don't think Jimenez is Espinal, at least I wouldn't say that yet.

Jimenez's xwOBA is right in line with his wOBA, so he's not fluking into anything. If his defense at SS is above average or better, then I think he's a real prospect, and might be the best one in the system (which isn't saying much but still).

The 2021 team had a 99-63 pythWL, and the 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL. They were doing just fine even with the lack of playoff success. In game 2 of the Wild Card round, the Jays were up 8-1 and had to get a replacement in LF (I think Merrifield had to leave the game but my memory is fuzzy there). There was a guy on the bench whose only skill was playing defense (JBJ), but at that point, with a 7 run lead just put your best defender in the game and hold it. Instead, they put Tapia into the game (someone who they non tendered like 5 minutes after the season ended) and he misplayed at least 1-2 balls that would have potentially saved the game for the Jays if a competent defender was out there. That wasn't due to an organizational weakness with defense, it was due to a manager not knowing how to manage (never mind Mayza facing Santana who kills LHP). They didn't need to deviate from what they were doing to the degree in which they did. Focusing on defense in 2023 wasn't the best decision, but whatever, they did it. The biggest issue as mentioned was doing the exact same thing in 2024 when it took completely unsustainable pitcher health/performance to succeed with that approach in 2023.

The Jays could trade Vlad, Bo, Gausman, Berrios (if they can), Varsho, etc, and use that saved money + the prospect capital they get back to field as competitive a team as they can. It doesn't have to be an Orioles style tanking. It doesn't have to be a tanking at all. Just maximize the returns on the existing players who won't be around the next time this team is actually good. Doing that should, in theory, help get the team to the next competitive window a lot sooner. They'd have to accept that 2025 will be pretty grim though, which I'm not sure ownership would want.

Only 6 teams have worse run differentials than the Jays do: White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, A's, Angels, and Rays. That's 5 god awful teams, and a good team that has lost a lot of players due to injury/legal issues (and they'll still finish better than the Jays in all likelihood). Standing pat and hoping the team gets hot down the stretch would be an insane expectation based on what we have seen so far. The fact that they are 7 games back of a playoff spot with about 100 teams to pass makes it even worse. The team has one of the worst farm systems in the league, a tax paying big league roster that stinks, and like 80% of the roster is not controlled beyond 2025 or 2026. The only reason you (and frankly me too) are afraid of a Jacob Waguespack, Corey Copping, and Billy McKinney trade deadline is because of the guy who would be making the deals. So if your argument is stand pat so that Atkins can't trade Jansen for a 26 year old starter in AA with a 92 MPH fastball, then I could see the logic in that. But sometimes you have to see a team for what it is, and if you're not trading Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc, now, then you're guaranteeing the asset being diminished/wasted by waiting a year. We have seen how this story ends. The spoilers are the 2017-18 seasons.

Yup, the 2021-23 competitive window could have been much better had they sold assets in July 2017 rather than waiting a year or two like they did and getting practically nothing. I have no faith in them to do it, but it’s sort of a no brainer from a baseball standpoint. Rogers may not agree from a business standpoint but on the other hand telling them they can field a 65-70 win team with a $100m payroll instead of a 75 win team with a $240m (or whatever it is now) payroll might be somewhat convincing.

On the bright side, the Jays not playing Orelvis due to a suspension is less embarrassing than not playing him so they can get Springer and Kiermaier into the lineup.

All you can do is laugh at this point.

The Jays are either low key tanking or they actually think this is their best lineup. Hopefully it's the former, but the latter seems more likely given this team's recent history. We were fooled by Atkins' dorkiness. He is not a nerd. Old school to the core.

Springer batting clean up today. Save us, Ed Rogers.

Losing sucks, but this team stinks and has a front office that has more incentive to go for it then take a step back. Losing, and losing a lot, in 2024 is probably the best thing to happen to the team at this point. They aren't good enough to go on a run, so the further they get in the standings from a playoff spot, the more likely they will react logically at the deadline. At least that's the way I'm trying to rationalize this s***.

Berrios contract: 2027-28 salaries may increase up to $5M each season: $1M each for 300, 350 combined innings pitched in 2025-26 $500,000 each for 375, 400 combined IP in 2025-26 $2M each for Cy Young award in 2025 or 2026 $1.5M each for second-fifth place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote $750,000 each for sixth-10th place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote There's a good chance those player options will be for more than $24m per. I doubt any team expects him to opt out, including the Jays if they were being honest with themselves. If you just want to dump the contract, then maybe there's a team desperate enough to do it, but I don't see it. The contract is not team friendly at all aside from a reasonable AAV in 2025-26. Stroman is a similar valued pitcher (~3 WAR innings eater) and when he hit the market at age 32, he got 2/37. Berrios would have to be a Cy Young contender in 2026 for him to opt out. Maybe he will surprise and be one, but not a risk I'd take if I were a team trading for him. He'd likely provide more value to the Jays than he would in a trade at this point, but depends on what the team's goals are. Ultimately, I expect Kikuchi traded and no one else. Only exception would be if they replace Atkins and the new GM is given free autonomy to do what he wants. Then maybe it's more realistic to see other SPs moved.

It’s not about wanting to keep him as much as what makes sense for a team that won’t rebuild and won’t get anything meaningful in return for him. If you’re trading Gausman and Berrios, then there’s no shot this team is good in 2025, which is fine with me but probably not fine with the decision makers. So you trade the guy who is going to fetch the most value in return (Gausman) and hold the one who is less likely to bring a haul back in a trade and use him to eat up innings. It’s possible I’m underselling Berrios’ trade value but I don’t think I am. Those two player options amount to nearly $50m over 2 years, and that’s two years from now. I really don’t see a team taking that contract, much less giving up high value for it, but maybe I’m wrong.

I’d keep Berrios and Bassitt only to eat up innings. Those two if nothing else are durable, and I don’t think you’d get a haul for either one of them. Of course if a team gives up something good for Berrios you do it but those two player options on the back end of that deal don’t seem very team friendly. Gausman is a different story. Maybe a team won’t give up an ace return for him anymore but even something a little below that would be worth pursuing. That might be the most sensible compromise for the team that clearly will not bottom out. They can use the $20m+ on another SP in the winter plus whatever prospects they get back to help the team try to contend in 2025. It won’t happen (Kikuchi is probably the only SP they even consider trading next month) but it’s a good idea.

When he's trading a prospect for a veteran, he's good. When he's trading a veteran for a prospect, that's when it gets dicey.

As long as Shapiro is employed by this team, it will be Level 1. Trade all the impending FAs, slide back under the luxury tax to reset the penalties, and try again in 2025. As others have said that may not even be the worst thing to do with the expanded playoff format, but they would just be delaying the inevitable. Unless Atkins can get massive hauls for Kikuchi, Jansen, Garcia, etc. I'm not holding my breath on that.

The problem is he only has 1.5 years of control left, and there's no guarantee that he ever bounces back to what he was. I know that's crazy to say about someone his age, but his offensive profile is incredibly volatile. He doesn't draw walks and relies a lot on BABIP/contact. Players like that can fall off unexpectedly. Maybe this is just an extended cold stretch for Bo and only a matter of time before he bounces back, but I wouldn't be against trading him now depending on the return. The extra year of control, especially if the acquiring team thinks they can fix him, is probably enough to not get a completely s***** offer, if not a good one. The biggest reason to hold on to Bo is you don't want Atkins being the one trading him. Otherwise I'd have no issues with it.