glory

Soto is going to get the highest AAV ever (when you factor deferrals in Ohtani’s deal). It’s going to be Cohen, the Yankees, or Dodgers. If the Jays want to make a splash in free agency then it will probably be Bregman.

Even if the Jays volunteered to pay the remainder of Turner's contract, would any contending team actually have a use for him? He can't hit RHP and can't field. At least KK plays a premium position really well.

We will never know, but I'm kinda curious whether the Jays would have traded him this trade deadline even if he were healthy and putting up a normal Bo season. If anything it feels like the injury and bad performance gives Shatkins a good excuse to hold on to him in order to try to compete in 2025.

The luxury tax issue is going to be interesting to watch. Paying the tax and dealing with the penalties for a team as bad as the 2024 team would be foolish. However, no one is taking Turner and KK's salaries, and the Jays want to repeat 2018 by pretending to contend next season so they won't be dealing anyone who is controllable beyond this season. I can't see how they get under the tax just by trading Kooch, Garcia, Richards, and Jansen. They won't be trading Bassitt no matter how much sense that makes. The only other option is probably Chad Green but I don't see his $10.5m salary in 2025 being an asset right now. He seems like a 2025 trade deadline piece. This team paid an obese DH $2m to play once a week, so maybe they deserve whatever the get. Sad that the two biggest FA pickups this season are players other teams wouldn't take for free (Turner/KK). Maybe some team would have taken IKF if he was healthy, but will be harder to trade him when he's hurt. If a team is willing to take him though, make the damn deal.

I am completely on the "trade Bo" bandwagon, but if there's any player on the 2025 team that will bust his ass next season, it's him. Dude has been waiting for free agency for years it feels like. He'll put in the work. Whether he's any good remains to be seen.

Agreed, I think selling high on Bassitt would be a great idea, but the Jays (under Shapiro at least) do not operate like that. It’s one of the reasons they need to invest so heavily in free agency in the first place.

No chance the Jays trade Bassitt. They are going to try to contend in 2025, for better or worse.

I tend to agree. DS should absolutely be playing everyday on this sad sack team, but by no means is he a lock to be a 2-3 WAR long term. For me, the players with the best chance of sticking as good non-star MLB starters are Horwitz at 2B and Jimenez at SS. Horwitz loses a lot of his shine at 1B. I'm conflicted on Barger. If he still had his 2022 skill set, then I'd be a lot more intrigued by him as he seems to have good exit velo. He needs to trade approaches with DS or something. There's also a question of which position he should be playing long term.

Horwitz's future value changes a lot if he's primarily a 2B. I haven't watched much of the games this season, but he currently has a +2 OAA at 2B. If he's even average defensively there for a few years, then I think he has a chance to be a pretty good player. The issue with the farm system as others have said is lack of impact talent. Tiedemann is obviously one but he's barely thrown any innings in years and is hurt again. The Buffalo Boys look like they could be big league contributors, which is helpful, but looking at A- to AAA aside from those guys, and it's hard to even squint and see a future big league contributor based on current data. If they finally decide to get rid of Atkins, then hopefully a complete overhaul of their current player development team follows.

The only downside to Joc was he’d have to be platooned. Otherwise it was a no brainer if he was willing to sign here. Power, LHB, and as mentioned the expected numbers pointed to 2023 being an unlucky year for him. Ideal bounce back guy, which Atkins is typically good at identifying but not this off season for some reason. Turner is 39 and showed signs of decline last season, especially against RHP. There was no reason to expect a big year from him. Joc at least had the potential to have one, and he’s showing it.

Yeah, by KK's own admission he was surprised at the lack of interest in him. The Jays already got the best case scenario out of him in 2023. Signing him again and expecting anything resembling the 2023 season was not wise. Aside from that, the Jays trading a top prospect in baseball for an elite defensive CF with an xwOBA below .300 even his best seasons and then proceeding to play that player in LF for 2 consecutive seasons is crazy. I don't care if you think KK is better defensively at CF, it makes no sense from a roster construction standpoint, and certainly didn't help the Jays fix their biggest issues (power/offense). If the Jays never traded for Varsho, then sure bring KK back as many times as you want until a better CF option presented itself. I thought IKF was an awful signing, but from a positional standpoint, his signing was the only one that made sense.

Wow. The narrative was Joc preferred the West Coast. If he actually was interested in the Jays and Atkins decided that 67 year old Justin Turner was the better option, then holy s***.

Shapiro’s run as GM of the Indians was ass. Drafting wasn’t good. They made the playoffs once in 9 years. Average attendance dropped nearly 2 million from the time he started as GM (3.2m) until his final season in that role (1.4m). He got bumped to team president after that, and the team didn’t really take off until after he left the org entirely. Looking back, Jays fans (myself included) were a little too optimistic about this guy based on his track record. He has done some good things here but almost all of the good has been unrelated to baseball decisions. I think Shapiro is the guy to get rid of here. Rogers could definitely hire someone worse, so there’s risk there, but I don’t think things will truly change until he’s gone.

Kikuchi to the Dodgers seems inevitable.

Yes, especially in the AL East. Vlad and Bo would have to have monster FA years. The rotation would have to stay healthy and effective despite age (Gausman 34, Bassitt 36) and issues with stuff/underlying numbers (Berrios). The pen is highly volatile to begin with, but will be losing Garcia, and there's questions about health with Romano. Springer will be one year older. Varsho has an 87 wRC+ in his last 900 plate appearances and will be 29 next season. I mean, I guess it's possible with the extra WC spot and if they have a great off season (plus internal development), but that's asking a lot.

I’ve said before I think a Vlad extension eventually gets done. Probably will be an ownership call and might be for a term/dollar amount that will make people squirm but I think it happens. Bichette is the one who seems mentally checked out, and with a skill set not worth a long term deal but if they are fine with losing him for nothing after next season or being in this same position next July, then it is what it is. As long as he’s not extended for big years/dollars, that’s all that matters in the end.

Robert Murray: Not surprising. I’d imagine they would have done this even if Bo was hitting like 2019-23 Bo. They didn’t learn their lesson. We just have to hope 2025 doesn’t mirror 2018 as much as 2024 has mirrored 2017.

You're not trading Bo to open up a spot for Jimenez, that's just an ancillary part to it. Just like you wouldn't trade Vlad with Horwitz in mind, you'd trade him to maximize value before he leaves, and then stick Horwitz at 1B full time as the in house replacement. In this case, Bo already has one foot out the door, so you're just speeding up the process. As far as trading Bo and competing in 2025, as unlikely as it would be to compete without Bo, how likely it is to compete with him? I wouldn't rule it out completely, especially with some smart off season moves (and a new front office!!), but the 2023 team required completely unsustainable pitching performance/health to sneak into the playoffs, and the 2024 team is the result of that unsustainability crashing back to earth. What can we reasonably expect with this same group one year older and one year closer to FA in 2025? You can trade Bo and still make an effort to compete. Ideally you get a piece or two for him that could help the 2025-30 teams, stick Jimenez at short, and then reallocate the saved money to fill another need(s). Or use that money to sign one of the FA SS's. Whatever, just be a little creative and retool rather than what we saw in 2017-18. I'm not saying that's going to work any better than running it back, but if you're going to aim to contend every year due to ownership mandate, then you can't expect to just let important FAs walk without getting anything in return when the team can't draft or develop talent on its own. Of course, if Bo is hurt, or other teams are offering literally nothing, then that changes things, but I have a hard time believing Bo's value would be that shot with 3 bad months at his age and the fact that he has one more cost certain year of control.

That blurb from Law about Moore has Blue Jays written all over it. I liked the Nimmala pick last season, but I'm a little nervous about what the Jays will do here.

I have no idea if it will work (it probably won't), but I'd have no issues with the Jays converting Pearson to a SP. I thought the moment he became a short reliever that his career would blossom, but if he's an average RP, then he really holds no value. Stretch him out and see if you catch lightning in a bottle.

Unfortunately there is no comparison that I can think of as far as a player of Bo's caliber traded at low value with 1.5 years of control left. Really depends on what the offers are. If it's Billy McKinney 2.0, then obviously not, but I don't think the offers will be quite that bad with the extra year of control in there. Other teams will view him as a buy low, so the offers won't be 100% what his 2019-23 value would have been, but you have to weigh the pros and cons pretty heavily here. They also have an internal SS option who might be the best prospect on the team (not necessarily a huge compliment but still a reality), and that player is out of options after this season. At some point the Jays need more young players in years 0-6 (closer to 0 than 6) on the roster filling spots, and that's true even if they plan to contend in 2025.

Honestly, if he's healthy by the deadline, then I think I'd still move him. The off season is going to be difficult since there will be competition (Adames/Kim in free agency), and next July he will have 2 months of control left so the return is going to be diminished either way. Selling low on Bo and seeing him have a big 2025 will be a lot less hurtful than seeing Vlad succeed elsewhere because you get the sense Bo's had one foot out the door for a while now, and it's not like he's been a perpetual underachiever. He gave the Jays 4 really good seasons with a very risky profile for dirt cheap. Take the win there. Keeping him in 2025 with no shot at an extension and hoping he has one more .360 BABIP/5% BB% season in him before he bounces seems like a really bad way to go. We've seen how this movie ends.

From what I read, if no one claims KK, then the Jays can keep him, so it’s really not a big deal. He won’t get claimed. This is just a prayer that someone takes his salary, which isn’t happening barring some desperation by a team out there.

And unlike JD, Bichette comes with a very risky offensive profile (BABIP, low walks), so while I'd still expect Bo to bounce back next season, it's far from a certainty. Very slim chance a team trades anything good for him in the winter when that team can keep their prospects and just sign someone like Adames or Kim. He's either traded this July (unlikely), next July (probably), or leaves as a FA (if the 2025 team competes for a playoff spot). Not ideal.