glory

He could be Fisher (most likely) or could be Teoscar (less likely), but I'm fine with giving him plate appearances to see what he has. He shouldn't be batting 2nd though. The Jays need to hit on some lottery tickets, especially if they are avoiding a real sell off and are doing the same thing they did in 2017-19. They got lucky with Teoscar. They need to get lucky again, and probably lucky more often because there isn't a Vlad/Bo in the system that they can dream on once the 2025 "window" is closed (well, closed in the FO's mind....chances are in reality it already closed after the last out in Minnesota last year).

Vlad having this type of season when the competitive window is closed/closing rather than in 2022-23 is annoying. Fun to watch either way.

I think letting Vlad get to free agency is probably the best play here if they are that far apart in extension talks. Vlad will either test the market and realize he’s not as valuable as he thinks, which would make a reunion with the Jays more realistic, or he will get the money he wants from AJ Preller or Arte Moreno or whoever, and the Jays move on. You can’t go back in time and trade him a week ago and they won’t be trading him in the winter so this is what you’re left with. Well that or a deadline deal next July, which is also possible.

Yeah this seems like a pretty realistic outcome. The Jays will have a s*** ton of financial wiggle room after 2025 so whatever happens in 2025 (playoff team or sellers at the deadline) they will definitely reinvest that winter. Naylor isn't great but should be reasonably priced and is a good hitter. The fact that they can wrap the flag around him for marketing probably helps too.

$2m for a fat DH who they played like once a week for 2 months. If they pay the tax in 2024 when they'll have one of the worst teams in baseball and had tradeable assets that could have easily got them under, then heads have to roll. That's borderline incompetence.

Hopefully he has some defensive versatility. I don't expect the bat to be good enough at the big league level to start but might have value as a utility player who covers a bunch of positions.

If they want to contend in 2025 but still maximize trade assets and add to the farm system, then they'll need to get a bit creative with the roster. Something like trading Bichette for the best package of prospects they can get and then signing Adames. In that scenario they would have (hopefully) added at least one intriguing prospect to the farm system while not hurting the big league roster at all (if 2024 Bo is a sign of things to come then Adames over him is actually a massive upgrade). You can make an argument that holding on to Green and Bassitt was actually the smart play from a potential return standpoint. If both of those guys were rentals this past deadline, then they would have had more value than they did in reality having $10.5m and $21m respectively owed to them the following season. That's full FA freight on two older pitchers which likely lessened their trade value. That won't apply in July 2025. The IKF trade is exactly what they should be doing. They sold high on a marginal asset when he was still controllable and got an interesting prospect out of it. Stuff like that will add up. I really don't know what the right answer is. This is a very poor situation for a team to be in when everything is screaming for a rebuild but it's impossible to do for business reasons. They'll have to think outside the box and find a way to balance winning with stocking the farm system. Making matters worse, if they don't figure out why their player development sucks so much, then even if they rebuild it's not going to cure their problems.

I don't know if McAdoo will turn into anything, but it's a great return for IKF.

There's no doubt in my mind that Bichette will be super motivated in 2025. Seems like he's been wanting to test free agency for years now. The question isn't motivation, it's whether his body and/or skillset (low BB/.340 BABIP) will hold up. I would guess yes, but I wouldn't be too confident with that prediction. Either way, at this point if you want to maximize 2025 wins then you pretty much have to keep Bo and hope he has one more 4 WAR season in him. Then either trade him at the deadline or lose him to free agency if the team happens to contend. This off season will be very telling. Is Shapiro going to go scorched earth to try to get a playoff team (which will mean spending huge in free agency) or will it be some variation of what we saw in 2018 and 2024 where they go for the best 1 year deals they can find and then pivot in case things go wrong? The latter would be something he might do if he was going to stick around for a bit.

Yeah Rogers has to have some reservations at this point, though I'm sure Shapiro can talk them into it, especially if Vlad isn't signed to an extension. The only way to maximize (or at least attempt to maximize) what's left of this group is to spend big. If Rogers isn't willing to go into the 2nd tax threshold then they might as well sell in the off season. With that said, Soto is a pipe dream. They would be competing with the Yankees who are already going to make the playoffs with Soto on the roster (so there's familiarity there), in addition to the Mets who look like they might make the playoffs this year + have Steve Cohen, and I'm sure the Dodgers will take a run at him as well with $500m in deferred payments somewhere in there. No chance the Jays coming off a miserable season are going to compete with that unless they blow the other offers out the water, which won't happen. If they make a big splash anywhere, then I think it's probably Bregman, although not sure that's the best idea given his age and performance this season. Regardless he's the best combination of filling a big need and a realistic signing (I can't imagine the market for him will be crazy high).

Barger 2-2 with a HR and double so far. Glad they traded IKF. Give Barger a look at 3B and see if he's capable there.

Well, Kay and SWR were acquired for Stroman (at age 28) who had a year and a half of control left and a 3 WAR in 124 innings at the time of the deal. The Jays weren't dealing anyone like that this deadline. If they were, then I'm guessing the return would have dwarfed the Stroman return from 2019 based on the market. The better comparable is Drury/McKinney vs what Kikuchi got; one was considered a heist, and it wasn't the Happ deal. That doesn't mean Bloss, Loperfido, and Wagner will pan out, they may all stink, but at the time of the trade it's a better return. As far as the rest of the deals, it's all subjective and since most prospects will fail or cease to be heard from again, it's pointless to debate them individually, but I'd easily take this deadline over 2018-19. I do think Atkins did really well in 2017 though, as Teoscar (even without hindsight) was a great return for Liriano who was a rental and awful that season.

- Either 1 high end SP or 2 SP's that are #3/4 caliber. I don't want to trust Yariel as one of the 5 starters out the gate, but I'd be fine with him as #5 SP if they signed someone like Burnes. - A 3B, Catcher, and DH. I'd be fine with using internal options for LF (Loperfido, Clase, DS, Barger, etc). - An entire bullpen aside from Green and Romano assuming he's healthy. Non tender Swanson. It's a long shot. If Vlad and Bo have monster FA years to cash in at the end of the season then the odds improve, but they can't get away with a KK/Turner/IKF master class type of off season they had this year. They need to go big and have it pan out right away. Not really sure where they go. A lot depends on who is calling the shots. As mentioned you kinda need to figure out what you want to do with Shapiro before you let him proceed with an off season that is going to dictate the course of the next few years. If I had to predict, then I'd say they extend Shapiro, reassign Atkins, and promote someone (Click) to take over. Maybe that's already been done since this past trade deadline was a lot better than what Atkins usually does as a seller.

I wanted them to trade Green, but you could at least argue that he's useful for a 2025 team that wants to contend. IKF was not necessary, as there is no shot he's going to sustain his current level of production and there are many internal options that could replace him. So from that standpoint, if they had to trade one, then they probably traded the right one for their goals. Whether they made the right decision to keep Green in general depends on what they turned down. Maybe another team didn't want to take his whole salary (very possible) and the Jays didn't want to eat any. Regardless, very pleasantly surprised with the deadline. The Jays didn't really trade much but they got way more back than anyone could have imagined.

Signing IKF to what looked like a bad contract, getting a 2 WAR out of him in half a season, and then trading him for at least a somewhat interesting prospect is a great outcome. Even if McAdoo ends up being nothing it’s still the best case scenario for this signing all the way around.

McAdoo is 22 and killing it in AA. What's the catch?

IKF going to the Pirates per Passan!

You got Morosi’d.

They’ll move on from IKF when he has a 79 wRC+ in 303 plate appearances next July.

We still don't know how much money the Jays are covering in the Turner deal ("cash considerations" was included based on the press release). I can't imagine the Jays are actually going to pay the tax this year because they don't want to trade anyone controlled through 2025. That seems idiotic, especially if the intention is to go AA-2015 in the off season. They are much better off getting under the tax to reset the penalties and then blowing through the 2nd tier in the off season. Still hoping for an IKF or Green deal in addition to the FAs being moved, but I guess it depends on what the payroll situation is. Maybe enough money is being covered in the Turner deal to get under it. Paying $2m for Vogelbach in hindsight (and hell at the time as well) was just awful.

Looks like Loperfido is joining the big league club. With KK likely to be moved, I could see him getting a chance at everyday LF reps.

A top 3 AAV would be over $40m, so if that's what Vlad is asking for over a 10+ year term, then most likely scenarios are 1) they will end up moving him next July or 2) if they are in contention then they will let him go to free agency and see what the market says. Both of the latter scenarios seem a lot less desirable than trading him now and maxing out his trade value, but the Jays want to compete in 2025, so it ain't happening now.

Unfortunately I think that’s probably more accurate than people assuming he will command a haul. It’s a sellers market but that $21m next season is a very large amount for any team to pick up for someone Bassitt’s age and projected value. As mentioned the same issue might apply to Green. He’d have way more value as an expiring rather than another team having to pay him $10.5m next year. The player to move to get under the tax is probably IKF.