glory

Watching the Padres team and their fans is making me root for them to come out of the NL. Would be fine with a Yankees/Padres World Series. I have no interest seeing an AL Central team play for any longer than necessary.

This got me thinking how different this competitive window would have looked had the Jays succeeded in trading for Lindor. This was 2021, so chances are trading for Lindor would have meant no Semien, and Bichette likely never plays SS again for this team from 2021-present. Of course it would help to know what the trade actually looked like in terms of which players the Jays were losing.

It's only been a week, but these playoffs have already made up for last year's snooze fest. Almost every game has been high drama and highly entertaining.

That was a great game to watch as a fan of neither team. Back and forth, and dramatic in the end.

Say what you want about the Yankees, but from an entertainment standpoint, I'd much rather see Judge and Soto in the World Series than any of the Central teams. The NL side is great. Division rivals with fans that despise each other. Should be fun.

The Jays don't have much to trade but trading for one of their needs in the form of a player who is somewhere in years 3-6 in service time would take some of the financial pressure off. There will be some teams that are shedding payroll, especially those who have uncertainty with their local TV rights. Or if you feel 2024 was a blip then see if buying low on Luis Robert is on the table. Something along those lines. Throwing FA money at all of their problems is going to be impossible. They'll need to hit on a trade or a cost effective pickup that really works out.

Sure, but then you have to factor which owners/front offices have a history of risk vs risk aversion (i.e. who is more likely to spend beyond a comfortable level), as well as team situation, and so on. The largest FA deal the Jays have ever given was 6/150. Soto is going to get at least double the term and maybe 3-4 times the total value. Whereas we have seen the Phillies sign players to decade long deals (Harper, Turner). We have seen Cohen shatter market norms on AAV (Verlander, Scherzer) as well as another decade+ deal (Lindor). The Yankees are far more conservative with their spending with Hal than George but they are still the Yankees. The Dodgers will spend (and defer) anything. I'm not denying Rogers would make a big offer, but all those things into consideration, for a player of this magnitude (plus his age), it doesn't strike me as a very realistic scenario. I think Vlad and what happens with him will be a big test. He'll require one of those "uncomfortable" decade+ long deals in order to stay. I think Ohtani was a special case. He's the only global superstar in MLB, so I'm sure Rogers saw a lot more revenue potential in that signing than just signing a great baseball player, but who knows. Vlad will be a test on what their level of risk really is.

Yeah I don’t know how sustainable the Padres success is, and there are some bad contracts on their payroll for many more years but the team they have now is a legitimate World Series contender and fun to watch. The fanbase is amazing too. Pulling for them to come out of the NL.

It was implied that Rogers outbidding the Mets for Springer somehow helped the argument that they could do that with Soto as well. I’m saying it’s an apples to oranges comparison because the level of player is totally different. Like, night and day different. Age, projections, talent, injury risk, you name it. Cohen not wanting to go 6 years for a 31 year old OF doesn’t mean he’ll have the same level of restraint for a 25 year old generational talent on a HOF track. If your argument is “we don’t know what will happen”, well no s***. Maybe the Jays offer something that no one else will touch and get him. Maybe Soto chooses the last place team with a poor farm system and only 1 more year of control on Vlad, and says no to the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Dodgers (all playoff teams). Like I said I hope I’m wrong but me getting pushback for saying this has a very small chance of happening is crazy. I guess we can dream until about December or so.

The Jays gave 6 years to a 31 year old FA when no other team in the league (including Cohen) was willing to do it. Soto is one of the best players in the game at age 25/26. Cohen is not going to stop at 6 years, or 12 years, or whatever it takes to get him. That's my point. To outbid someone who isn't afraid to destroy market norms is going to be very difficult. The Jays signing Bregman to a 7 year deal when no other team is willing to go above 5 or 6 seems like a more likely outcome. I hope I'm wrong on Soto and he ends up a Jay, but outbidding the Yankees and Mets (and probably Dodgers, knowing them) seems like a very unlikely situation.

We are one inning away from possibly having an ALDS with 3 Central teams. Yankees fans are going to go nuts if they don't make the World Series this year (more than usual).

Soto might be 4 times what Springer got in total value. It's a different stratosphere, one that doesn't involve significant revenue potential like Ohtani would have brought in (which was likely a major factor in Rogers wanting to do it). No one is denying that Rogers spends on players, but we are talking about the biggest contract in MLB history (once you factor Ohtani's deferrals), and competing directly with the Yankees and Mets. There is a reason the 4th CBT tier is unofficially called the Steve Cohen Tax. Outbidding Cohen for Springer who was in his 30's when signed vs a future HOF at age 25 is night and day. Regardless, signing Bregman is likely not going to be cheap either. If Rogers greenlights signing him, then that would be a significant expenditure as well (one that I don't necessarily want, but could see happening).

I don't think Rogers will significantly outbid both the Yankees and Mets/Cohen, which is what it will take. If the contracts are close then I'm guessing Soto will prefer staying in NY. Soto is more realistic than Ohtani (who clearly preferred the West Coast/LA while Soto is probably more a $$ guy) but I'd still call it a massive long shot at best.

I wasn't even thinking of Soto when I said that as I don't think there's a chance in hell he signs with the Jays, but yes Soto would obviously be the prize (K rate or not). I was just looking at the more realistic FAs (meaning, everyone other than Soto).

The Jays have been pretty good with K% over the last few years. The 2021 team in particular, though skewed due to the ball parks, ranked 1st in HR/ISO and 2nd in K% (man, that team not making the playoffs hurt badly). Even the 2022 wasn't bad in both areas. It was 2023-24 when the bottom started falling out, especially 2024. The Jays have routinely been at about 20% K% since 2021 every year. They just haven't been able to develop power hitters or acquire them recently. I don't know if the dimension changes factor in here either, maybe or maybe not. Although 2024 wasn't the dimensions, as there isn't a drug in the world strong enough to convince anyone that KK/IKF/JT was going to add thump to the lineup. The FA available that is the best combination of low K's and good power is Bregman, so if this is Ross' 2015 AA moment, then that's probably his target.

I think Shapiro and Atkins are a package deal at this point, but who knows. What complicates things is Shapiro's deal ends after 2025 so I'm not sure it even makes sense for him to hire a new GM until it's clear that he's staying long term. Which leads to another issue: if he's not extended beyond 2025, then you have a lameduck president with a GM who is only sticking around because of said president making decisions during what could be one of the most important off seasons in Jays history.

The only way for real change is chopping off the head, which is Shapiro. Until that happens I think this is the GM and coaching staff the team is stuck with. At least Hague seemed to have success with the Buffalo guys and might be an improvement in a bigger role.

Yeah whoever wins Game 1 is going to rest everyone good in Game 2 and essentially tank that game. D-Backs are probably done.

Man, I thought the 2023 season was frustrating and sometimes boring as a Jays fan, but at least that team was good. Holy s*** 2024 was a long season. Glad it's over. Time for the playoffs and hopefully a fun month of baseball before Shatkins goes full 2015 AA in the winter.

Even Teo's road wRC+ in 2023 was right in line with this season and what he's done since 2020. He was just awful at Safeco. He would have been fine in Toronto.

Yeah the 2024 attendance is at least somewhat related to the 2021-23 (regular season) success. Much like 2017 had great attendance due to 2015-16 despite a s***** product. If the Jays have a monster off season then maybe 2025 attendance won’t take a big hit but I would imagine attendance will be down early in the season and either rise or fall based on team performance after that.

I wouldn't go that far in saying Kim would be redundant because of Clement. Over the past 3 seasons, Kim has consistently been a slightly above average bat without any major swings in xwOBA, and he's great defensively and on the bases. Clement's offensive profile doesn't seem all that appealing, especially the low walk rate. As a utility player he's fine, but nothing beyond that. Kim is a legitimate MLB starter with 3-4 WAR potential. I would prefer the Jays target a power bat if they spend big in free agency, but Kim at 3B would make the team better, if not significantly so. He would also allow them to trade Bo or at least make it easier to move on from him after 2025. As far as what he'd command, I think he's more a 5/80 or 5/85 player rather than someone who gets 9 figures, but who knows. Having to outbid AJ Preller is probably going to be difficult, and Kim fits the Dodgers perfectly as well.

Never thought of Kim as a 3B option, more so a SS, but I guess you're right the Jays could try to sign him to play 3B. I believe they were interested in him when he was coming out of the KBO a few years ago.

Yeah it would certainly hurt the defense, but this set up has far more potential to help the offense with the right moves. The question is whether the offensive improvement would be worth the defensive downgrade. Depends on what's out there and what's realistic for the team to acquire, I guess. I just don't see a realistic avenue to add a legit starting 3B unless you want to give Alex Bregman more money than Chapman just got.

He grades out very well defensively at SS and 3B so he has value as a utility IF, but offensive profile looks awful. He's basically what IKF typically is from a value standpoint. If they sign Soto, then sure start Clement everyday, but given the amount of improvement they need from the offense, they should aim a lot higher. Vlad at 3B continues to feel like the best option for next season.