glory

The good thing about Lucas is that it doesn’t appear to be smoke and mirrors. He’s not this good obviously but past 2 starts he’s looked like someone who could be a serviceable back end SP/depth SP, and that has a lot of value. Saw Francis come out of no where last season, maybe Pete’s magic starting to take form. Only took a decade.

I really can't wait for the heater Tony is going to go on eventually, because he's been brutal so far.

Yeah middle relief is ass on this team. If they are still in it at the deadline then trade for as many high leverage rentals out of the pen as possible because the current pen is 2 deep, maybe 3 with Green sometimes, and that's it.

Wipe off the cobwebs from the HR jacket!

Looking at Gameday it was a ball but not a super obvious one, so it wasn’t a terrible call. Just the wrong one. That’s what happens though when you can’t hit home runs and have to hope for singles and walks. Sometimes you have to depend on umps and that’s not ideal.

Should be 1-0 Jays on a walk there. BS but until ABS comes into play we have to deal with the nonsense.

I said the same thing the last time Lucas started, but it would be the most baseball thing ever if the Jays win tonight looking at the pitching matchup and lineup. Crochet probably licking his chops looking at 5 through 9.

The Jays are definitely trying to emulate the 2015 Royals. On the plus side, John Schneider as Ned Yost isn't a stretch at all, so that's one positive.

What's more shocking, Vladdy getting $500M or the Jays winning a challenge?

Yeah, start Springer and Straw in CF until Varsho gets back. That’s an idiotic play by Lukes, no awareness at all.

Springer having a dead cat bounce would be incredible. Hope it continues.

Nice play by Wagner.

Yeah Berrios against this lineup in this park has ass kicking written all over it. Hope he can fluke his way through.

Kirk’s value comes mostly from defense. The Jays have to accept that at this point. He’s not going to hit like he did in 2022 again. Just bat him lower in the lineup and hope he’s around league average offensively.

Why is Kirk always up with the bases loaded?

2025 FA's: $66.5M (Bo, Bassitt, Scherzer, Green, Swanson) 2026 FA's: ~$70M (Varsho, Springer, Straw, Gausman, Garcia) How they reallocate this over the next couple of years combined with player development is going to determine their short term fate. Berrios opting out would be generous on his part as well, but I doubt it. If by some miracle that happens, then that frees up another $25M after 2026 (and another $25M in 2027). I don't know if Atkins is the guy to get the team there, but they basically need AJ Preller/Dave Dombrowski level of GM'ing over the next few years. Just aim as high as humanly possible in free agency and trade. They don't have the farm system to go full Preller, but at this point trade anyone other than Nimmala and get the best talent you can get.

Yeah the Phillies are probably the best case scenario for what the Jays are currently trying to build. Spend big in free agency, make trades for controllable impact talent, and then go from there. Even if the team falls out of it this season and has to sell at the deadline, they could try to sneak under the luxury tax and clear room for more spending in the winter. That's really the only option they have. As you said too much $ allocated to ~2 WAR talent right now (Springer, Berrios, Bassitt, etc). So far they've at least extended or acquired the contracts of players with 4+ WAR ceilings (Vlad, Kirk, Gimenez), but they are seeing the back end of the last round of FA spending so a lot of declining years all at once (Springer, Gausman, Berrios). The next round of FA spending has to be for elite level talent with longer shelf lives and the 2 WAR players should be the ones making $750k. Easier said than done. One thing is for sure, with all the money coming off the books, and Vlad's CBT hit only being about $6M more in 2026-beyond, they absolutely need to sign one of the FA starters available (Gallen, Cease, King, Valdez). Not much on the hitting side other than a pipe dream (Tucker) and re-signing Bo, so they probably have to be creative there.

I know it’s way too early for this but what’s the path for a contending team in 2026-2030? The only way to make this contract sensible is to have an incredible 5-6 year run where Vlad’s best remaining seasons are maximized to the fullest. I just don’t see a path there unless the Jays start developing talent out their asses starting right now but they’ll have a lot of money freed up after 2025 and 2026. If big name hunting is easier with an extended Vlad in the fold then that certainly helps, though I have no idea if that will make a significant difference.

Pros: he’s young enough to accumulate counting stats that might make him a Hall of Famer if he stays healthy, so a forever Blue Jay making it someday would be pretty cool. Cons: everything else. Horrible contract that will age really badly unless Vlad has a David Ortiz career arc (he won’t).

I can't wait for negative WAR Vlad getting 600 plate appearances a season for 8 years from ages 33-40 as he tries to accumulate enough counting stats for the HOF. At least the best remaining years of Vlad's career will be spent on the 2026-30 Jays, who if we're lucky will only be rebuilding for most of the years instead of all of them. Fun times ahead.

The best thing that could happen at this point is not signing him, then if/when the team doesn’t resemble a contender in July, the optics of trading Vlad will be fine. Just give it time. The Jays caving now and giving him 14 f’n years will be a disaster, and the frustrating part is Shapiro knows this but it’s probably out of his hands. That’s not to absolve him of blame, because if he was better at player development, then we wouldn’t be in this position.

It's the 2023 team except with a worse bullpen and worse (older) rotation. With Schneider on the last year of his contract, I think there's a real chance for a mid season firing here but not sure that's going to make a significant difference. They'll need the offense to compensate for a lot of their weaknesses this season, and not sure they have enough power for that.

I wish the season ended after the 7th game of the season. Happier times back then. I didn't watch the game, but Garcia and Hoffman combining for 11 pitches while Little and Sandlin face multiple batters and blow the game is vintage John Schneider.

Man please don't extend Vlad when the team could realistically be selling at the deadline. Absolutely insane if that reported contract happens.

X translation: "I've received information through various channels that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to a $500 million, 14-year deal. It seems an official announcement will be made any moment now. Congratulations to Vladi." Man, it's really happening, isn't it?