glory

The Braves making it was the worst case scenario. Dodgers/Astros was the ideal series from a rivalry standpoint given how 2017 ended, and even Dodgers/Red Sox would have at least been intriguing. There is nothing about the Braves, especially with Acuna out, that moves the needle for me. They were a team that won a crap division, and with Acuna out don't really have a marquee star that they could market the series around (as good as Freeman and Albies are, they aren't it). So you're left with a series that not many people outside of Houston and Atlanta are going to care about. There are no storylines, and the Braves don't give off a World Series vibe with their current roster. Other than Dusty finally winning his first ring as a manager, I can't think of one thing about this series that would resonate with the average fan. This series really needs to go 7, otherwise it will be largely forgettable.

The best direction to go, as boring as that might seem, is to follow the same path AA has done with the Braves. Just go for the best 1 year deals every winter. Atkins already did that last winter (aside from Springer), and it worked better than anyone could have dreamed of. Instead of falling in love with those 1 year deal players, just let them leave as free agents, and try to find the next Semien and Ray while continuing to build up the farm system. That's the safest "sustained contention" model, because if they add another big FA deal and/or trade more top prospects, then they run the risk of unintentionally building that short contention window much like the Cubs did. The Astros have done the opposite, where they let top FA's leave, and replaced them mostly internally. They did trade prospects, but it always seemed from a position of depth, rather than emptying the cupboard. I would love to trade for Ramirez, and he would fit this lineup/roster like a glove, but whether it's the right move with long term contention in mind is debatable, depending on who they would have to give up. If there is a trade for a player coming off a down year that will cost much less to acquire (ex. Chapman), then that's likely a better avenue to take. Otherwise, just like last year, try to find the best short term deals in free agency.

I agree, but if the farm system is not churning out top talent on a regular basis, then that talent will have to come via free agency (reduces long term $ flexibility) or prospect capital. They got really, insanely lucky with Semien and Ray for $26m combined, but that's not the norm. Building a consistent 90 win team in the AL East with bozo as a manager, and as the young core gets more expensive + closer to free agency is not going to be easy. I trust Shatkins either way.

Looking at the current Jays prospect list, there is a pretty noticeable drop after the top 3 (Moreno, Martinez, Groshans). That doesn't mean the system is bad, but it's not like the system is littered with talent that is close to contributing. We may look back on 2021 as one of the real opportunities to not only make the playoffs but go deep into it with this core. The fact that it was wasted due to (in large part) the manager, who isn't in any danger of getting replaced, is incredibly frustrating. It's hard to say how long this competitive window is. I think the team should be good for at least as long as Vlad/Bo are under control but the East is very difficult. Expanded playoffs would certainly help.

Rios was claimed off waivers by the White Sox in 2009, before AA took over (officially at least, depending on how much power Ricciardi had at that point). Considering they got nothing in return for him, I wouldn't call that a great move, although it did open up RF for Bautista in hindsight, so ultimately it served a greater purpose. The Wells deal was a heist. If only he kept Napoli. I think AA started to resemble a very good GM in the winter of 2014 (Travis trade, Saunders trade before he got hurt, JD trade, Martin signing). Considering he was fighting for a job at that point, he knocked that off season out of the park. Everything prior to that was more of a mixed bag, especially 2013 which was a colossal swing and a miss. Once he went to the Dodgers and got to see an elite front office at work, that's when he took a step forward as a GM.

Yeah. The baseball off season is slow and boring even when there is a CBA. If they have a lockout from December to Feb and then come to an agreement in March to avoid missing any regular season games, then fans probably wouldn't notice the difference much. Certainly not the casual fans. The diehards like us will, but we'll watch baseball whenever the sport comes back. It's the casuals they have to worry about, or the ones who will move on if the regular season schedule is disrupted.

Yeah, 2022 is a lot different than 1994. Baseball was more nationally popular 27 years ago, to the point where it was possible for the McGwire/Sosa chase to bring fans back. Not sure anything similar to that will bring fans back in 2022 if they end up losing regular season games. Hopefully they are smart enough to realize that and end up agreeing to something, even if it goes down to the final hours of their deadline.

AA is a good GM, but the only way he could have messed up the situation he inherited was if he operated like 2015 AA and traded every prospect under the sun for vets, and he had no reason to do that because (unlike his final year in Toronto) he had stability in his contract with Atlanta, and there was no urgency to win with the Braves when he took over. Like I said, he's done very well supplementing the roster, so that's a plus for him, but the team itself was mostly built before he got there. Although there is no shame in being 1998-2000 Brian Cashman if the Braves end up winning a WS or two.

He also had a thing on YouTube called "Bauer Bytes", where he sat in a table with 3-4 other players/ex players/personalities and would just shoot the breeze. Great way to display personality and hear from the players in a casual setting. He definitely did a lot to help the game from a marketing standpoint, and his ability to play the heel with crowds added a level of excitement to the games. I know people hate the "brand builders" on social media since it comes off as douchey (see the complaints about Stroman) but hopefully another player can pick up the baton and follow what Bauer was doing on social media before the explosion happened. It was helping the sport.

Exactly. AA's done well with supplementing the core guys with vets (Donaldson, Ozuna, Morton, all his trade deadline moves this year), but he inherited great young talent and a top farm system. It was almost impossible to f*** that up. If he stayed after 2015, he would have had to build from scratch after having to see the remnants of the 2015-16 teams go away. No chance I would have trusted him with that process after what we saw him do in 2010-15. He definitely learned and got better after his stint with the Dodgers, though. Working with Friedman was the right call for his career.

Scherzer not starting Game 6. Huge blow to the Dodgers.

That's why I wonder if Ray's success is going to change that. He came here after completely s***ing the bed in 2020, and put up a Cy Young season with a pitching coach who seems to be able to help pitchers improve. No doubt the Jays will still have to offer the most money (like they probably did with Ray), but I'm curious if pitchers might view the Jays differently when Ray turns 1/8 into $100m+ a year later.

Aren't the Rockies going to qualify Gray? Maybe I'm misremembering, but that seemed to be their logic when they didn't trade any of their vets at the deadline, although maybe that was just meant for Story. I think Syndergaard takes a pillow contract due to his age, but Verlander is probably going to need at least a two year guarantee to choose Toronto over many of the other contenders that will be after him on a one year deal. I wonder if Toronto looks more appealing for FA's now after the success of Semien and Ray. Players looking for one year deals, especially pitchers, may have avoided Toronto in the past, but hopefully that is changing.

No, I’m using that term correctly. Using that logic, Grichuk at his best is an all star. That doesn’t mean it’s a realistic expectation over a full season. Matz has had two really good seasons in his career, and he’s been around the same type of pitcher (from a value standpoint) both years. That’s probably a best case for what he is. Now, if the team thinks 2nd half Matz is sustainable, then it would make more sense to try to get him on a longer term deal for less AAV.

I'm surprised that some people are on board with giving Matz the QO. I know a one year deal is a no risk kind of contract, but that would still be $18m of the team's available payroll being spent on a guy who had a 4.83 ERA/4.92 FIP (411 IP) in the NL from 2017-2020. As mentioned, that's the same money the team gave Semien who had MVP candidate upside based on his 2019 season and how he finished 2020. Matz at his absolute best is a sub-3 WAR SP with a spotty track record. I'd rather try to find the next Matz who another team wants to give up on rather than pay the real one $18m over a season. If the team is going throw $18m AAV's out there, then go for the bigger fish.

This post season is really showing how important rotation depth is. Having openers/bullpen games in playoff games, especially for a team like the Dodgers, is just awful. The Jays probably were nicely set up for a playoff run as they legit had 4 SPs they could have counted on.

The only reason for a FA to turn down the QO is if he knows he's going to get significantly more in free agency. Semien will turn it down. Ray will turn it down. Matz will accept 1/18 before Atkins even spits the offer out of his mouth. The question becomes, do the Jays want Matz taking up $18m of 2022 payroll? My guess is no. If the team wants to offer a big one year deal, then just go $20-25m on Syndergaard over a year and see if he bites. Aim as high as possible.

The Dodgers deserve this for bringing Urias in as a RP in game 2.

I will always know Laz Diaz because of Game 1 of the ALCS in 2016. The Upton called K in particular always stuck with me.

You could tell Masai was aiming to do this after the championship. He practically made no effort to improve the club after Kawhi left, and kind of just let core players leave (Green, Ibaka, Gasol) without adequately replacing them. Stanley Johnson, Chris Boucher, Patrick McCaw, Matt Thomas, Aron Baynes, etc, are not players you sign expecting to keep the team competitive. It was a very slick tank job, which didn't work in 2020 since they were still really good with Ibaka and Gasol still in the front court, but definitely worked after that with those two leaving and being replaced by Baynes. This issue with the current team is half court offense. They'll have trouble scoring most nights, especially with Siakam out. Defense will probably be excellent, but they lack a go-to scoring option. Another high lotto pick would be nice. The East is probably still bad enough in the bottom end for the team to have a real shot at a play-in game, but it really depends on whether they can score enough in the half court to be competitive. Defensively and effort-wise, they will be.

Yeah if the Raptors finish around .500, that would be a major accomplishment. A big reason for the team's regular season success in year's past was Lowry. Now the team is without him, plus have to deal with an injury to Siakam on top of that. It's going to be a growing year, most likely. The East is probably still bad enough for the Raps to be in the play-in games, but anything beyond that would require a lot of things going right (OG taking the next step, ROY Barnes, etc).

Kirk is 22, at catcher, with an excellent offensive profile. I don't think the Jays would have trouble getting value for him. It's not about shopping him necessarily, it's that he's probably the one catcher on the 40 man who is both expendable + should (in theory) have high value in a trade. The team is not going to get much value for either Jansen or McGuire, and there's a chance that Jansen still might be decent (we will have to get more sample size after his strong end to the season). They'll get a ton of value for Moreno, but he's not being moved. That leaves Kirk as the most logical piece to move in a deal. The one team that jumps out to me is the Marlins. They have SP's up the wazoo and badly need MLB level offense. There's probably some deal there with the 2 teams that could be worked out.

The Yankees have re-signed Aaron Boone to a 3 year deal, and Yankees fans on social media are acting like Jays fans will act when Montoyo gets his extension.

It wouldn't surprise me if he gets traded this winter. Montoyo is staying, possibly long-term/forever, and down the stretch he was playing McGuire over Kirk in the team's most important games of the season. The team will need to keep DH open for Springer (over 30, lower body injuries), Vlad, etc, as a rotating position to rest guys periodically, so Kirk doesn't really help in that area. His trade value likely exceeds the value he's going to give to the team at this rate, especially if Moreno is seen as the real deal.