glory

Rosenthal suggesting the Mets still want to bring Baez back. That was before they signed Marte so not sure if it still applies, but if Baez/Lindor/Escobar is their IF, then a more interesting target might be McNeil. A LH bat who can play 2B/3B (not sure how he looks defensively), and is coming off a down season where he had a public fight with their new star.

I think this is an understated part of this off season. The Jays were in a great spot last winter when they were one of maybe 3-4 teams that was actually spending money. It made signing top free agents far more realistic, and Shatkins did the right thing by spending big when the opportunity was there. A Springer type of FA in this winter's market is likely much more coveted and would be more difficult to sign. This winter has way more teams involved, which means more competition for FA's (driving the prices up), and way more money being spent in general. Granted, the Jays should be a much more attractive team to FA's after 2021 than they were after 2019-2020, so maybe that helps a bit, but they are still in a tough position when it comes to free agency. In that scenario, maybe Rodon actually is a realistic target. It's possible that teams get scared of his medicals/injury history combined with his likely asking price (Boras), leaving him looking for a contract late into the winter. To some degree, that's how the Jays ended up with Ryu, as they were the only team willing to take the risk of giving him more than 2-3 years. With more conventional FA targets, even with the success of the 2021 season, I think the Jays are at more of a disadvantage again.

I would agree with that, but I feel like we are missing something with Rodon. The White Sox did not give him the QO. As a Boras client he was almost surely going to reject it, but even if the White Sox were afraid he would accept, why would that thought scare them? A 1/18 deal for a SP like him, especially if they wanted him to prove that 2021 was not a fluke, was pretty much a no brainer contract. The only reason not to qualify him (that I can think of) was if they were afraid of his health. Who knows, maybe this is a Ryu situation where health concerns are overblown and his market will be lessened because of it. If that's the case, then I think you might be on to something.

The issue is as long as the Rays exist in their current form, it's going to be in St. Pete with the Trop as their stadium. It doesn't appear a better stadium in a better location is in the cards. So there's really no justification to keep them where they are. A perennial 90+ win team in a market that has more baseball fans would make a killing. The Rays were giving away tickets in September just to get 10k in the stands. I'm not sure if Montreal is the answer, but at this point anything would be better than the current Rays.

Matz would have accepted the QO 20 seconds after it was offered to him.

I know it was a different GM, but this is a guy they traded away for scraps a year ago. Just because he came up in the org, it doesn't mean he owes them anything. Good for Matz. I wouldn't have gone 4 years on him, so glad he went elsewhere.

Great move for Tampa, and probably not that bad for Franco compared to other long extensions that young players usually sign. Mookie Betts made about $60m in years 0-6 before free agency. Even if you bumped Franco up to $70m, that means he gave up 6 years of FA years for $153m ($25.5m AAV). Likely well below market value if he's as good as expected, but not Acuna levels of "I'll give up my prime for a hamburger". Usually I'd hate one of the game's young stars signing with that poverty franchise, but they'll probably be in Montreal (or somewhere else) soon enough, so probably a good thing in the long run.

I'd be fine with signing Matz if the deal is reasonable, but I agree that he's more of a small fish. There's going to be a borderline non tender on some team coming off a down year that the Jays could trade for like they did with Matz last season, or a pitcher looking for a pillow contract in free agency. I think I'd rather go that route for the back end of the rotation and go big on the other SP acquisition. But if Matz at ~$12m AAV doesn't prevent future moves, then it certainly wouldn't hurt to add more rotation depth. That's a big org weakness right now.

Yeah the reason he signed for what he did was because he was hurt, and the Jays signed him anyway on the chance he would remain healthy. I mean, I guess it had high reward and the cost was minor, but if his physicals look like s*** to the point where other teams are backing off, then the risk is clearly much higher than any reward. Hopefully this year when Atkins buys low on relievers it will be RP's coming off down years, and not RP's who can't pass physicals. Relievers are volatile enough as it is. If you know one of them is hurt before they put pen to paper, then it's probably not the best risk to take.

I think he'll get it from the Tigers based on rumors of their interest in him. They apparently want to make a big splash this winter.

Very surprised that Samad Taylor was not protected.

I still expect Ray to sign elsewhere. Some team is going to bet on 2021 being close to the new norm for him, and I'd rather it be someone else. My guess is Atkins goes after one bigger SP either in free agency or trade, and then gets a 2nd SP who is more of a project. It was mentioned in another thread, but Kikuchi seems like someone Atkins would give to Pete Walker to see if he can turn it into something (LHP, throws 95, misses bats at a decent clip). He's more in the project category. The bigger fish is harder to predict, but there are still a bunch of options in free agency, and also short term options in trades (A's SP's, Castillo/S.Gray, Marlins SP's, etc).

Only 6 pitchers in MLB history have gotten contracts for $200m or more. Cole: $324m Strasburg: $245m Price: $217m Kershaw: $215m Scherzer: $210m Greinke: $206m I like Berrios as a pitcher, but I don't think there was a chance he was going to get $200m as a FA after 2022, unless his 2022 season was suddenly bonafide ace quality.

I don't think he would have gotten $200 million offers in free agency. He's a very good starter, but even someone similar to him like Stroman is probably not coming close to that figure. If you assume his FA years were essentially signed at 6/120, then I think he left some money on the table by taking the extension, but not $200m.

Don't do it, Wander.

Could definitely see Atkins going after Kikuchi.

I have no interest in bringing Ray back on a monster deal either. He was great in 2021, but let someone else overpay for him. There’s just too much potential volatility with his performance. If he loses a tick on his FB or suddenly command disappears again and who knows. I’d argue Stroman would be the better long term investment, but I know that’s not happening in a million years. Either way, congrats to Ray. Amazing turnaround from 2020. Hope him and Semien get paid in free agency. They bet on themselves and earned this payday.

Apparently the player option is also for $25m, so worst case he gets 2/50. I can see why he stayed with the Astros.

I would think the Jays would have to significantly beat the other offers (not just come close) for Verlander to choose Toronto over New York or Boston. Probably would have to be something like 2/50 guaranteed. I would still be open to something like that given the short term nature of the signing, and Verlander probably still has some juice left, though I have no doubt he was using spider tack in Houston so there will be some drop off even without factoring age/TJS. I guess it depends on what others are offering.

I would have been fine if the Jays gave him that deal. I like it for the Angels. He was always going to take a one year deal because his upside is huge and he can cash out big time next season. About time the Angels made a good pitching move, even if it’s only for one year.

The extension using MLBTR's arb projection is essentially ~6/130 (he had a $10.9m arb projection). That's around what I thought it would take to get him extended, give or take. Edit: Davidi saying it's 7/131, so 6/120 as the extension using the above example. Seems fair for a SP like him who had to be convinced to forgo free agency. Jays really couldn't afford to lose him after 2022. It had to get done.

Cleveland seems to like Kirk a lot. Apparently asked for him in return for Kluber a couple of years ago, and there was a report in SI that said "the Blue Jays reportedly rejected a deadline ask for Ramírez that built a package around Alejandro Kirk and an assortment of top prospects and major league players." I don't think the Jays give up Moreno regardless, but if that report is true, then my guess is they could probably make something work with Kirk instead. Who they have to add in addition to him is the question.

Yeah I think they trade Kirk before they move Moreno to 3B.

On one hand, a lockout sucks and the next 2-3 months without any baseball news would suck. On the other hand, the thought of February having a month long flurry of big signings/trades, followed by spring training, and then right after that the regular season is pretty interesting. The NBA off season is basically one week of excitement followed by months of down time. Baseball winters are big moves spaced out over 4-5 months so at times it can seem boring as hell. A February-March stampede of moves followed by the regular season immediately after that would be crazy.

Agreed. A young SP with history of shoulder issues, even if it hasn't lead to a major surgery, is a huge red flag. I wouldn't mind if the Jays acquired him but I'd be careful not to give up too much.