glory

Ohtani might be an exception: Once he becomes a free agent and signs a $500m+ contract (assuming he stays healthy), his brand value is only going to grow, especially since it appears he's either going to be Steve Cohen's next piece of art or a Dodger, and those two competing with each other is only going to drive his price up. The only other NBA star with New Balance is Kawhi (I think), and while Kawhi is a big star in the NBA, he's not the household name that other NBA stars are (LeBron, Curry, KD, etc). Wouldn't shock me if Ohtani's deal with NB is close to Kawhi's, but I don't think the numbers are out yet.

I think Green could accept it if he doesn't pitch much (or at all) in 2023, but yeah with the way the market is today for relievers, he'd probably be able to get that ($6.25m) guarantee or very close to it regardless if he were a FA (assuming he is healthy). Likely just a cushion in case he's hurt. As others have mentioned, it's going to be interesting what the Jays do with their options. 3/27 is better than 2/21 for the team ($1.5m less on the lux tax payroll), so I can't imagine the Jays preferring the 2/21 over the 3/27. Best case scenario is Green looks like the Green of 2017-21 and they probably accept the 3/27. Atkins usually doesn't spend on relievers but getting a RP with Green's performance/upside might change that.

I guess it plays out like this: 2023: Green gets $2.25m guaranteed. After the season ends, the Jays get a team option for 3/27 that covers 2024-26. If they decline that, then Green has a player option for 2024 at $6.25m. If that's also declined, then the Jays get a 2/21 team option that covers 2024-25. Pretty convoluted. I'd say the most likely scenario is the Jays turning down the 3/27 option and Green exercising the 2024 player option, but a lot will depend on how Green does in 2023, if he pitches at all. I would think a reliever would be more likely to contribute coming off TJS than a SP like Ryu, so it wouldn't shock me if he shows up in Aug/Sept.

If those 2025-26 options are team options then great move.

Didn't Ryu after TJS in June? Unless the recovery period has drastically improved over the years, I'd be pretty surprised if he was back by mid season, much less pitching well enough to actually help the team down the stretch. I think 2023 will be a write off for him, but I guess we will see.

Really hoping Brown can hit even a little bit as he moves up. A Kiermaier or Jarrod Dyson (probably could have started on some teams during his peak) type of career path would be a huge positive.

Yeah there is still a lot of red on Barlow's Savant page, including 89th percentile for whiff % and 97th percentile for chase rate last season. Velocity dip seems pretty significant though.

Man, Jays fans should be thankful that we have Shapiro and Atkins. Bloom is not only terrible at being a GM, but that whole 4 minute clip was embarrassing/uncomfortable. The Red Sox are going to pay Story and Yoshida $220m over the next 5 years (counting the posting fee), while Betts will get $265m from the Dodgers over the next 10 with a lot of that deferred, and this clown is trying to rationalize that as a positive. Bloom's job security is good for the Jays, I guess.

I guess Jays fans can no longer complain about Yankee Stadium home runs anymore.

I was going to suggest Espinal and Otto Lopez for Chisholm, but Sandy works too.

I think I'd be fine with a 11-12 year deal for Vlad, even acknowledging the weight issues and possibility for some dead money towards the end. He had a 132 wRC+ at age 23 in a down year. We all know what the ceiling is. Seems like a worthwhile gamble to take. Maybe a 11/285.5m extension would work. Once you add his 2023 arb figure it comes out to 12/300, so it's a round enough number for Vlad, and it's $25-26m AAV from 25-35, so it wouldn't be like Pujols or Cabrera where you're running him out there in his late-30's/40's. I'm guessing he would sign a deal like that. Whether the Jays would offer it, I have no idea, but that's probably what it takes to get it done.

The bright spot for the Twins is that they are in the Central so they have a shot at the division by virtue of how mid the division is. Of course now there is a balanced schedule, and the Guardians are probably still better than them. Division still gives them a shot though. Not exactly sure what the Marlins are doing.

For luxury tax purposes, any Vlad extension should begin in 2024 so it doesn't impact 2023 lux tax payroll, so now that his 2023 arb figure is taken care of, maybe they will start the extension talks.

Yeah they have two players with 5-6 years of control left who already project to have as good (slightly better) a combined WAR next season as Vlad and Bo (Adley/Gunnar). They absolutely should have spent on pitching. Maybe they tried and failed (as mentioned it takes two to tango in free agency) but only adding Kyle Gibson to a core that has 3 really good players (those two + Mullins) and more position player talent on the way just seems like a huge waste. Say what you want about Atkins, but he called up Vlad/Bo in 2019, and then it was Ryu/Roark/Anderson in 2020, Springer/Semien/Ray/Matz in 2021, Gausman/Chapman in 2022, etc. He didn't waste a single season he had Vlad/Bo under team control. Now there's only 3 seasons left, but they made the "playoffs" in 2020, just missed in 2021, made it again in 2022, and project to be one of the top 5 best teams in the league at the moment for 2023. You can't accuse them of being cheap or wasting years. The Orioles better start building soon because Adley's 2022 counted as a full year of service so that service time is going to start dwindling quickly. Next year's SP market looks very good so maybe that's when they'll spend, or at least try.

That was my first thought. The org went out of their way to intentionally hand him 400+ plate appearances last season, including using in Game 2 of the WC series with a huge lead rather than someone who actually knew how to play defense. All that just to non tender him after the season and watch him sign a minor league deal somewhere else. Ultimately I am just thankful that it is the Red Sox giving him the minor league deal and not the Jays. For much of 2022 I thought the Jays might actually tender him a contract given how often they were playing him, but I guess they really just wanted a LH bat in the lineup (even if he stunk).

Yeah that's the way it's looking to me as well. Merrifield is going to start a bunch at 2B but he's also the 4th OF. A Biggio/Espinal platoon at 2B is still there if Merrifield has to play the OF due to need, injury, etc. I don't think it makes much sense to spend $5-8m on a platoon outfielder at this point. If the going rate for that type of player was a lot cheaper, then sure, but at this point I don't think the Jays are in a bad spot as is. Save some financial bullets for the deadline. Also as mentioned, Otto Lopez is an option for that last spot, and the one thing he did really well offensively in the minors is hit LHP. He doesn't have any power so upside is probably minimal, but it's also a reason why you can put him on the bench and not worry about playing time.

The Jays do need to start developing that next wave of talent, preferably around 2025 when Vlad/Bo's time might be coming to an end, but a lot can happen (good and bad) for a farm system in a year. Overall, 2022 was a down year for the system as a whole aside from a couple of bright spots (Tiedemann, Barger) so things might not look as good now. The Jays also traded a whole bunch of prospects for big league help in the past year and a half, including 3 first round picks (Groshans, Martin, Hoglund), a top 10 prospect in the game (Moreno), and a former top 100 prospect (SWR). There are still enough intriguing prospects in the system to expect better outcomes in 2023.

Yeah, now that there is no catcher surplus, an extension for Jansen makes a lot of sense.

Yeah with Bo I don't think it's about Toronto or the organization as much as wanting to get paid what he feels he's worth. He clearly disagrees with the CBA and how baseball salaries are structured for younger players, so the only way he can maximize his worth is to test free agency. I don't even blame Bo. He should try to get everything he can get. It's up to the Jays to decide whether they want to just accept the next 3 years and then look for a replacement SS after that, or trade him before free agency. If they want to be a "sustainable contender" rather than having to do a mini retool after 2025, then they probably should consider trading Bo at some point because losing both him and Vlad at the same time would be pretty difficult to recover from short term. Although I still think the Jays and Vlad will work something out at some point. For some reason I feel that has a good chance of happening.

Swanson agrees to $1.25m, and Bichette (somewhat predictably) is going to an arbitration hearing.

Jansen gets $3.5m (projected at $3.7m).

Outfield defense, along with Schneider ignoring logic/stats, also cost the Jays Game 2 of the Wild Card game. Could definitely understand why Atkins did what he did after a full season of Hernandez, Gurriel, and Tapia in the OF.

Would have been a fit for the Jays, but this seems like a more fitting place for him to sign.