glory

Losing Fred and still trying to run it back is insanity. They were a .500 team with Fred last season. They lost the play in game at home against an awful Bulls team. Now they are bringing the same group back except replacing FVV with an inferior player. Not sure what they are expecting the outcome to be.

Look at how the Jays operated in 2017. That team was old and bad, but they still didn’t sell off their vets at peak value. They waited until the summer of 2018 when practically every asset they moved was at the dirt lowest in value with minimal control left. If the Jays ever trade Bo it will be in July 2025 if the team is selling. Otherwise he’s here until the end of the 2025 season. That’s just how the current regime operates, and it’s likely an extension of how Rogers wants them to operate.

The last sentence is the real issue. Where do you make the improvement? You're not replacing Vlad, Bo, Springer, Varsho, Kirk/Jansen. That's your core group at least through 2024. After that you have a group of impending free agents. They currently rank 2nd (Chapman), 3rd (KK), 4th (Merrifield), and 9th (Belt) on the team in WAR, and Belt ranks 3rd in wRC+ on the team, so it's not like any of them make sense to move or improve on either. The only thing I can think of is moving Varsho back to CF full time and finding a LF (trade KK for whatever piece you can get), but that's about it. Maybe there's a DH with more power than Belt has shown so far who makes more sense on this team, but he's still one of the best hitters on the team at the moment. Getting rid of the hitting coach and making some fundamental changes in player development has to be considered at this point. The lack of power up and down the lineup and organization as a whole (other than Orelvis in the minors) is mind boggling. I tend to agree with not touching the system at the deadline. It's in a bad enough spot as it is, and this is not the roster that anyone should be doubling down on. Stand pat, live with the consequences (either miss the playoffs or hope for a Philly 2022 run), and go from there.

He needs to be a CF. A 90-100 wRC+ as a great defensive CF would be valuable. As a LF it’s simply not enough. I’ve said before, trade KK, and then make a subsequent trade for a LF with some pop.

I think it's safe to write 2023 off for Manoah, but what he does in the off season to prepare for 2024 will be critical. Looking at Vlad (who actually tried to get in shape at one point) and Kirk, I'm not counting on anyone in this org to get into great shape who isn't already motivated to get in that shape, but Manoah's diet/conditioning might be costing him generational wealth, so you just have to hope there's enough incentive in there to change. Hitting rock bottom is usually a good thing in that regard.

Fat Boy letting Francis go 4 innings was a nice surprise. Maybe he will let him go one more.

Might as well keep stretching Richards out and see what happens at this point. Starting depth is already poor and Manoah looks done for 2023 so an unexpected SP developing would be a nice outcome.

Yeah ideally both the Jays and Angels make it in, but it might be one or the other (or neither) depending on how the Yankees/Astros/Rangers finish.

Genuinely hoping the Angels get one of the WC spots (or overtake the Rangers in the West). This will be the last season Ohtani and Trout will be on the same team. At least end it with a playoff appearance.

The Dodgers basically did nothing this past winter in preparation for going after Ohtani. They’ll get him IMO, and I think the total value starts with 6. I doubt he’d even consider Toronto if the money is anywhere near equal, and the Jays won’t be blowing the Dodgers and Cohen out the water with an offer so that’s a pipe dream.

Do the Jays trade for a SP or hope that Ryu comes back? From the looks of it they'd rather take a bullet to the chest than start Francis, so their options are kind of limited beyond that if Manoah is done for the year.

Vlad and Manoah have been collectively replacement level for 3 months, so that almost negates the positives for Kooch and Berrios. Not to mention Kirk is a singles hitter now (on top of being the slowest man on earth). Last season the ancillary pieces disappointed while the stars played like stars. It has been somewhat the opposite now aside from Bo and Gausman, as guys like KK, Berrios, Kikuchi, Merrifield, etc, have picked up some of the slack for Vlad, Manoah, Kirk, Springer (who has picked it up lately), Varsho, etc.

Yeah if the playoffs started today it would be: Rays (1) and Rangers (2) get a bye Jays (6) at Twins (3) - Wild Card Yankees (5) at Orioles (4) - Wild Card Winner of Yankees/Orioles vs Rays - ALDS Winner of Jays/Twins vs Rangers - ALDS

Using the off days to push starters up is not something this FO has done often. I don’t know if it’s desperation or not trusting internal depth options. Maybe both. Maybe Francis sucks or is a RP long term but having him start a few games in place of Manoah should have been done. If you wonder why this FO can’t even luck their way into developing a SP, stuff like this is why.

The Yankees are running minor league lineups out there due to injuries and the Astros are missing Yordan, while the Jays are having great luck with health, yet here we are. I guess when Vlad and Manoah are collectively replacement level heading into July it’s almost as bad as having injuries but still hard to see the Jays finishing ahead of the Yankees and Astros once they get healthy. That’s not even factoring the O’s, Red Sox, Angels, Mariners, etc. The Jays have a +8 RD, and that’s with a 20-1 win (or whatever the final score was) included. This isn’t like 2021 where they were underperforming their RD until August. It’s still very possible for this team to go on a run and end up in a playoff spot but it does feel like even if they get one it’s going to be hard to advance.

Unless Atkins is fired this month, the only direction they will go is doubling down on what they have now. So we will see prospects traded for big league help regardless. Only way it doesn't turn out like that is if the bottom falls out and they are like 10 games back of a playoff spot by the deadline, which likely isn't happening.

Analytically speaking, the team is 2-0 since boooobz started a game thread, so yes.

He has had a really good career so far. Very consistent and embraces the big game. I still wish the Jays kept him long term.

That lineup against Sandy is pretty gross, but it’s baseball.

It won't happen, but I think trading Kiermaier makes sense regardless. He's almost certainly going to decline offensively the rest of the way, and Varsho's value to the team is severely diminished as a LF where his bat isn't quite good enough. Trade KK, trade for a stop gap LF who has a better offensive profile, and put Varsho in CF. That type of move works whether they are buyers or sellers. Of course there needs to be a LF available that makes sense. Maybe they could steal Tyler O'Neill for little (assuming he comes back) and take a chance with him. But to answer your question, it would have to be a significant amount of games back for the Jays to be sellers. Atkins has no reason to sell given that he doesn't/shouldn't have job security, and the team is going to prioritize asses in seats with all their stadium renovations. They'll be buyers unless the bottom falls out in the next month.

The problem with this team is that this 2019-2025 window was predicated on Vlad and Bichette both being superstars. Bichette has basically been a 4-5 WAR player every season so he’s living up to the expectations but Vlad hasn’t even been a 4 WAR player if you combined his WAR in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023. How do you fix this? Find a superstar piece to pair with Bichette and expect Vlad to be a 2-3 WAR player until 2025 when he will undoubtedly have a prime Pujols type of year before hitting the open market. I wouldn’t have any issue with a trade deadline retool that involves trading impending FAs (Merrifield, KK, Chapman, Belt, etc) and even a riskier move like selling high on Romano. The issue with that is I don’t want Ross Atkins to be the one making those trades, and replacing Romano for a smart front office would be a lot easier than Atkins having to replace him. I really don’t see any realistic scenario other than Atkins doubling down on this roster and trading prospects for immediate help. Thankfully the farm system is ass cheeks right now so whoever he trades probably won’t hurt the team unless he moves Tiedemann, but still.

This looks very much like a mid/high 80s win team. Good enough to contend for a WC, possibly sneak in, but not a roster that I’d want to double down on which Atkins almost certainly will at the deadline.

Samad Taylor gets the game winning walk off hit for the Royals in his big league debut.

This front office extended Randal f’n Grichuk two years before free agency when the team was openly tanking so I would hope they prioritize someone like Jansen during a competitive window. If they think they are set at catcher long term then they might be in for a rude awakening. Extend Jansen, keep splitting time with him and Kirk to keep both healthy/fresh, and go from there. Kirk hasn’t hit for any power in 12 months so I’m not sure a grossly out of shape singles hitter is a huge asset even at catcher. The Jays need Jansen.

If Atkins is aware that it's not against the CBA to actually extend young players, I think Jansen should be a priority. Catching depth in the system isn't great anymore and Kirk hasn't hit for any power in 12 months (that's not factoring the fact that he's fat, slow, and a lot more likely to decline early).