glory

I'm really curious what his trade value is at this point. A wRC+ around 140, with recent performance being excellent. Only 25 years old with another year of control after this one. Reputation greater than his performance at this point but still considered a big star in the league. If the team can't find a way to get him extended, or he doesn't want to be extended, then at the very least he's probably increased his trade value to the point of getting something good back. I know Houston was mentioned as a team interested in him, but Seattle makes a lot more sense to me.

It's crazy that we all knew that Mayza was in trouble out of ST with decreased velocity and generally looking awful, and yet he's still in the pen heading into July. Kinda hope he stays all season. Halladay's 2000 ERA might be in jeopardy.

Pearson being a s***** reliever is so disappointing. I thought as a short reliever he’d finally breakout. Furthest thing from reality.

I want the Jays to extend Vlad, but obviously it takes two to tango, so if he's not ready to put pen to paper or wants to test free agency, then you have to consider moving him too.

From Mr. Arson Judge:

Worst part of the Varsho trade was putting him in LF for two years. You don’t pay a premium on defense only to use it in a much less important position. You wouldn’t trade your best prospect for prime Andrelton Simmons to put him at 2B/3B. Other than that, I’m surprised this trade is still a talking point.

Definitely on the extend Vlad/trade Bo train. I think the front office will eventually reach this position as well if they haven’t already.

This is what the end of a GM tenure looks like. No way Atkins survives this, if that wasn't obvious already. He's lost the room.

Bo waiting for that trade.

Yeah I think 8/200 is fine. He's already getting $20m coming off a 1 WAR season, and will likely get at least $25m in 2025 via arbitration, so that type of contract isn't completely unreasonable from the Jays standpoint given his age/upside. If Vlad is looking for a higher AAV or more total dollars, then that's where it gets complicated.

The Jays outbidding the Yankees and Steve Cohen is a pipe dream.

Plus, I'm not sure how good of a prospect Jimenez really is, but the fact that they have a SS in the minors with a 140 wRC+ and allegedly good defense (who also needs to be on the 26 man roster next season as he's out of options after 2024) should make trading Bichette a bit easier. Worst case they can stick IKF there for a year (and/or Clement if they remember he exists) as they reassess the position if playing a prospect terrifies them as much as it has over the past 12 months. I'm terrified of Atkins making that trade, but if his hands are more tied now due to his impending departure (best case), then someone else within the org (or Shapiro himself) can take the lead on a trade of that magnitude. If they wait until the winter, then there's a strong chance Bo will be starting SS to start 2025.

The only issue with trading him in the winter is that Adames and Kim are free agents. A team would have to weigh giving up prospects for 1 year of Bo versus just signing a 3+ WAR SS with better defense and losing nothing. That’s why I said before trading Bo prior to 2024 when the best FA SS was a washed Tim Anderson would have made more sense but whatever. I think the deadline is the time to move him. Take the best offer you can get.

He traded a year and a half of Stroman (who was performing really well at the time) for Anthony Kay plus an 18 year old pitcher. I’m legit terrified of what he’d get for Vlad and Bo.

Bo with a career 5.5 BB% and .340 BABIP. When he falls off, he'll never be able to get back up.

Don Mattingly definitely swears by this machine.

If he wants $200m, then over 8-9 years wouldn't be a terrible gamble, IMO. Lower would be better obviously. He's still only 25 with elite batted ball data. A late career Encarnacion type of breakout wouldn't surprise me at all (as long as Mattingly isn't in whichever org Vlad is in during that time). It would definitely be a risk because you don't know if Vlad is fixable or whether this is what he is, but the Jays lack impact talent everywhere in the org, and he's the only one with that upside. I think I'd take that risk. Bichette can kick rocks, though. Let his Tim Anderson phase happen somewhere else.

I'm actually starting to believe he will be extended this winter regardless of who the GM is. Rogers is going to want a "face of the franchise" over the long haul (nothing in the minors currently can come close to that) and Vlad is a 130 wRC+ bat with Luis Arraez's skill set, so there is a massive ceiling on him still if the team replaces their hitting/preparation coaches and hires somebody who could unlock it. Vlad presents far more value to the Jays than he does in a trade, so he's a very risky player to move off from even ignoring the marketing aspect.

Springer was signed post Covid season, so I think the Jays and Padres might have been the only teams actually spending money at the time. Cohen had just taken over as Mets owner so while they could have signed Springer they opted to trade for Lindor instead (right call). Springer was definitely an overpay even at the time. The sixth year was likely the clincher. I think Gausman allegedly had a higher offer from the Mets but chose the Jays, so he might be the only player who looked at situation out of the names listed.

I recall reading a blurb from Baseball America prior to the season stating that Addison Barger intentionally focused on contact instead of launch angle in 2023, so his contact rates improved significantly but he was hitting line drives and GB's instead of home runs (he hit 26 HR's between 3 levels in 2022 and then 9 in 2023). I'm not a hitting expert by any means, but when I read that I thought why would you take someone that hits the ball really hard and in the air, and try to get him to hit the ball in the air less? Seems like the Guardians took the opposite approach with Kwan, wanting more damage (sorry Donnie) instead of contact, and it has worked, but then again Kwan was so good at making contact that even if his contact ability regressed a little bit it likely wouldn't have been that drastic. The fact that it improved even with the added power is remarkable. Really shows how complicated hitting is.

Yeah whether it's Atkins making the decisions or Shapiro, the trade deadline will likely be used to find as many potential 2025 contributors as they can in order to compete next season. The 2017 deadline is an example of that with Teoscar ready for the bigs but blocked in Houston, and Pannone who looked ready for a AAA promotion when he was acquired. This FO doesn't benefit from acquiring low minors lotto tickets as it's possible the current structure won't even be around by 2026 (depends on what happens with Shapiro). They will look at 2024 as a down year and try again in 2025. It's just a matter of who will be the one making those decisions. Hopefully it's not Atkins. So yeah, look at some AAA rosters for contenders/buyers at the deadline, find guys who are blocked, and you'll see potential Blue Jays in there.

This is honestly the most positive development of the season so far. They can't put lipstick on a pig. They stink and it's clear as day. If they were flirting with .500 with a -60 run differential by mid July, the FO could have easily gotten delusional, but that ain't happening now.

The only reason to keep the core group (aside from wanting to sell tickets in hopes that the team contends) is if you believe a new hitting coach/philosophy/preparation can make the existing talent better. Maybe that could work, maybe it won't. It's a risk with only a year of control left on Vlad/Bo. Honestly, that Mattingly quote about "damage is a scary word" has been brought up before, but the followup to that was even scarier: “I don’t really see us as a huge power club. But we do have a chance for, I think, four or five guys hitting 20 or above. That would be good for us.” They literally have a 25 year old with an elite statcast page that hit 80 home runs in 2021-22, but as soon as Donnie came on board, now he maybe, possibly, if he's lucky, could get to 20 or above. Even though he drills everything into the ground at an even higher rate than before, and his ability to hit a 4SFB suddenly disappeared out of thin air. Something isn't right. So between that and Bo having a down year, you could certainly argue that bringing them back for one more try with a new coaching staff would be more logical than having Atkins trade them for 42 years of control on the most mid prospects imaginable.

What makes matters more difficult as far as the GM situation is that Shapiro himself is a FA after 2025. Do you really want him hiring the next GM if he's gone in a year? Click is already in house so I guess they can go that route, but Chaim Bloom should be a cautionary tale for taking someone from the Rays org and expecting them to be great. Click's sample size in Houston wasn't big enough to really judge as their core was already in place when he took over. The only thing I remember about Click in Houston is he allegedly wanted to trade Urquidy for 2 months of Willson Contreras at the 2022 deadline and was vetoed by either Baker or ownership (or both). They ended up winning the WS anyway. I have no issues with waiting until the winter for the big decisions (Vlad, Bo, Gausman, etc) to be made by the new GM. With Bo it might be the smart thing to do given how bad he's been, and Gausman will still have 2 years of control left in the winter so as long as he finishes reasonably well he should still have value. It's Vlad that is more complicated.

Yeah, at the minimum they have to get rid of Atkins, Schneider, Guillermo, Mattingly, and Shane Farrell. Ideally just get rid of Shapiro and the new president will take care of the rest.