glory

Today's lineup: RF Springer 1B Vlad SS Bo 3B Turner DH Vogelbach 2B Clement LF Varsho CA Serven CF Kiermaier

The fact that they are 2-2 in their last 4 games given how they've hit is a damn miracle. Pitching as expected is going to be the key to how this season goes. Basically need a repeat of 2023 in the aggregate and then hope for either internal development offensively or more realistically a bunch of trades at the deadline.

The options are Serven and Vogelbach. So option 1 is another catcher who probably doesn't provide much difference in speed, and option 2 is the only athlete on earth that might be slower than Kirk. Really don't understand the point of Vogelbach being on this roster if he's playing 1 game in 8 days. Just put Lukes in that spot you at least have a pinch runner.

Might be time to call up AJ Preller and make a logical Vlad trade.

The sad thing is, if they told IKF that he was going to be a utility bench player moving forward, he'd probably be fine with it. Not his fault they want to give him 600 PA for some reason. Kiermaier seems like he'd have an ego given how great of a defensive CF he was/is, but f*** it, start DS and Clement together and have IKF/KK off the bench. Perfectly reasonable set up.

Clement and Schneider trying to save this season like 2023.

I think I would have respected Atkins’ off season more if he just went with internal options after he struck out on Ohtani. He could have still signed Turner or whoever at DH since that DH market had a big supply, but going internal with LF/3B made more sense than what they ended up doing. It was a bad FA market. Don’t spend for the sake of spending. Just go out and say “we trust our development process and believe in our young players”, and then stick Schneider in LF and Barger at 3B, or whatever. If it failed then at least you failed with a logical process.

DS starting, playing 2B, and batting 5th. Feels good man.

A lineup with both Jansen and Schneider in it does add an important dynamic (power) to a lineup that desperately needs it. At least they'll actually play Jansen once he comes back. He just can't stay on the field long enough. But if there is any question about who the starting catcher is, there shouldn't be. Jansen is it. Unfortunately he's not durable so Kirk will play a lot regardless.

Do other organizations talk about a young player's weaknesses to the media to justify not playing them like this? Schneider (the dipshit, not Davis) could have just said "we think this is the best lineup for the matchup today" and left it at that. I mean that would have been BS too but at least it wasn't shedding a spotlight on a perceived weakness of one of your own players.

Yeah this is a big issue and it has long term ramifications as it bleeds into the minor league system as well. The young players on this team aside from Bichette all seemed to perform at their highest during 2020-21 when they played like 90% of their games in a minor league facility, and then 2022-23 saw declines. Some gradual, some steep. The only SP they developed in 8 years went from good to absolute dog s*** in a span of like 6 months. They can't seem develop even swing man quality pitchers in nearly a decade of sample size. Something is not right with the coaching in this organization, and the fact that they think promoting Don Mattingly was going to fix/help the offense is kinda sad.

This is also a realistic possibility. Kirk has been a 90 wRC+ player (.090 ISO) since August 2022. He's been a below average player a lot longer (and more recently) than he was a good player since coming into the league. Varsho's xwOBA in 2022 when he was a near 5 WAR player was .298, so not only did the Jays buy high, but they likely overestimated what his offensive ceiling is/was. It's certainly possible that he's league average offensively but I don't think we can assume that at this rate with the expected numbers looking the way they have looked (nevermind the eye test). This is Springer's age 34 season and father time is undefeated. Vlad is the one wild card here as we know the ceiling is super high, but outside of 2021, he has a combined WAR of 3.9 in 4 seasons. At some point you have to stop looking at the outlier as something to expect/hope for and start looking closer to the average of what he's actually done. As I said before, if Vlad/Bo are superstars (5+ WAR players) this season, then we are not going to nitpick on the complimentary pieces as much and there will be a real chance to do damage. Failing that, it's hard seeing this offense as currently constructed being a factor. Even Davis Schneider who absolutely should be playing everyday has enough warts where he may not be what the projections say he is (high K rate). It's still early and the pitching should still be very good if healthy so by no means should anyone be throwing in the towel, but man it's hard to look at this roster and get excited. I think Laika's rant is closer to reality than we want it to be.

Yeah, but I'm curious if it's "getting too cute" or simply trying to rationalize two awful signings (IKF/KK). Maybe a little bit of both.

This season is going to be infuriating to watch much like 2023 was.

In Kirk's last 649 PA dating back to 2022, he has a 90 wRC+ and .090 ISO. I don't think a Jansen extension will happen, but it really should. Kirk ain't it.

It's certainly possible. The difference in this case is that there is not much to dream on. Chapman has 4+ WAR upside, IKF doesn't. Kiermaier had a 104 wRC+ last season but can we reasonably expect him to repeat that? I guess it's possible but I think something around 90 is probably more realistic for him given his talent level and age. I have no clue what Varsho is as an offensive player but his statcast numbers even prior to 2023 were not good. It's going to come down to Vlad, Bo, Springer, Kirk, and Jansen. DS being a wild card with some upside is why he should be playing everyday as the Jays need more of those types. Clement is another one. I don't know, on paper it screams middle of the pack offense to me. Of course if the big guys in the lineup play like big guys, then it makes having lesser talented hitters around them more palatable. This window was predicated on Vlad and Bo being superstars, and they basically need to be this season.

Something happened to this front office in 2023. I don't know if it was James Click, or Mattingly, or someone else they added, but the way they have operated since compared to pre-2023 seems like a completely different FO. Like, I can't imagine pre-2023 Atkins thinking IKF was a starting 3B. Dude was shooting for the stars with almost every pickup (Gausman, Semien, Springer, Ray, Chapman, Berrios, etc) and didn't give a s*** about defense if he saw even a tiny bit of offensive potential. I miss that front office a bit right now.

Exactly. The sample size is nothing. We all get that. No one is overreacting because of a 6 game sample. It’s the fact that the 2023 lineup was one of the most frustrating and unentertaining offenses I have ever seen as a Jays fan, and 2024 (on paper and so far on the field) looks like an extension of 2023 except with a much worse player at 3B. The Jays needed amazing pitching performance and health in order to sneak into the playoffs last year (including DS being Barry Bonds for 30 games). Hoping for that again is not realistic, so they kinda need the offense to improve, and there’s very limited upside in the players the team seems to want to count on. Being worried about this offense seems like a fairly logical emotion right now. You can be worried and still acknowledge that it is super early and the record so far is fine.

Vlad is still very young so I wouldn’t rule out him becoming a great hitter someday but it does feel like if it ever happens it will probably be for another organization. This is year 6 for him now and the Jays have not been able to get the most out of him other than in 2021 which had a bunch of caveats. My prediction for Vlad has always been that he will have an absolutely monster 2025 season right as he hits free agency and I’m sticking to that. We just have to hope he figures something out before then. I think if he’s 2022 Vlad in 2024 then it would still be disappointing relative to expectations but not a terrible outcome. A repeat of 2023 Vlad would be horrendous obviously.

Mookie Betts is unreal right now.

I’d be shocked if he’s starting tomorrow.

He also had a 1.011 OPS against RHP in AAA last season. There's really no logic to the platoon label that they seemed to have put on him, and there's no reason why he should be buried behind a bunch of 1.5 WAR talent who mainly get there with defense. Hopefully as the season progresses they figure out a way to play him everyday and learn to live with his bad games, but we'll probably have to wait a bit longer for that. As long as he keeps helping the team win when he does play, then that's all you can hope for in the meantime.

Seriously, he’s losing playing time against RHP to Kiermaier, IKF and Biggio. This org is crazy to not give DS at least a chance to prove he’s as good as the projections. Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t, but he’s one of the few guys on the roster with some impact potential. If it’s just a case of not liking his defense then that’s BS. Just stick him in LF and sub in KK late in games. Or replace KK in that scenario with IKF/Biggio if it’s 2B. Just frustrating to know he won’t be in tomorrow’s lineup (unless sanity prevails).

Man DS has been saving this team for months now dating back to last season. Of course he won’t play again until next week since the Jays aren’t facing a lefty again for a while but whatever. Take what you can get.