Jump to content
Jays Centre
  • Create Account

BigCecil

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,648

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Toronto Blue Jays Videos

2026 Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects Ranking

Toronto Blue Jays Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2025 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker

News

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by BigCecil

  1. BigCecil
    Biggest predictors of pitching health are past IL history and number of pitches thrown. I agree with the bold. I don't think the Jays have any unique IP for "keeping SPs healthy". The Rays lost McLanahan, Springs and Rasmussen last yr, as a well regarded org. Robbie Ray had been a horse, until he wasn't. After all the research its still can be pretty random and unpredictable. One of the theories posed for Manoah's '23 decline was his jump to 196 IP in '22. Who knows? Bassitt hit 200 IP in '23 for the 1st time. Will that affect him @ 35 in 2024? Pitching should remain a relative strength even though its improbable that '23 rotation health will be repeated.
  2. BigCecil
    LOL...I'm not going to take this at face value on Jan. 3rd, but if I did, seppuku might be in order.
  3. BigCecil
    Good report. Flags on health and durability offset some by the AFL outings. The stuff isn't in question. I'm not surprised, according to Sorrow, they would move him for a 4-5 WIN player, 3-4 years of control. Unfortunately, they are unicorns.
  4. BigCecil
    Plan the parade for non PTSD sufferers.
  5. BigCecil
    Joc is a useful piece. As usual your take in optimistic IMO. Nothing wrong with that. However, Pederson's career wRC+ vs LHP & RHP are based on 4000 PAs. I think they are indicative of what we can truly expect from him, regardless of Belts actual or under lying numbers the last couple years.
  6. BigCecil
    We have only had extremely healthy rotations in 2016 and 2023. Its rare. Manoah is a total wild card we hold.
  7. BigCecil
    Agreed. 6 WAR down with Chappy and Belt gone. KK projects 1. '23 he was 2.2. I don't expect Varsho WAR to improve - unless he plays more CF. Joc is a poor man's Belt. Career 73 wRC+ vs LHP - virtually unplayable. 125 vs RHP with power. Useful piece. Belt 136 in 2023. Both Bo and Vlad need to be 5 ish WAR players again, with increased O from Kirk & Springer. Its possible. Based on projections, its not probable. Springer was healthy last year which is rare. He is another year older and 29th percentile Avg EV is concerning. I expect some pitching regression (health and/or performance) and concerned about our overall depth there, so the offense and D will have to be solid. Pitching is still a relative strength.
  8. BigCecil
    No, I don't give a s*** about the order of signings. Just the total projected WAR value add. I think they are still looking to add a bat and working on a major trade. Extrapolating '23 WAR calculations for a RP with their inherent volatility, especially one coming off major arm surgery, is risky. I'll make you a friendly wager between a couple Albertans for $100 we don't see 1.6 fWAR from Green in 2024. (that was his '21 total)
  9. BigCecil
    I hope the Jays don't see him as that. IKF has a career 80 wRC+ in 2500 PAs. The math on the probability he has offensive upside is not good. He is a glove - relatively expensive depth IF/OF piece.
  10. BigCecil
    Ya. IKF's "GG" came in 58 games in 2020 with Tex. Elite D numbers small sample size a lifetime ago. Wasting a 3B power position for him in the AL East does not seem very enticing. It why they are dumpster diving for Gio and other options.
  11. BigCecil
    "WAR is WAR" calculations. KK projects 1 WIN. IKF was 0.2 in '23. Chappy & Belt were 6 WAR now gone. Will the rotation be as healthy/productive as '23? Are Berrios and Kooch going to be '22 or '23 level in '24? Does Manoah come back and offset any rotation WAR regression? The pen has some question marks like most pens. They spent a lot exercising Green's option, so hopefully he is healthy and effective. They picked up Hicks for solid reasons. If Vlad and Bo are both 5 ish WAR players again - problem pretty much solved. With hope Springer, Kirk and Varsho add to their '23 totals. Their projections are interesting. The rest of this off season and 2024 are going to be really fascinating as the window narrows further.
  12. BigCecil
    lol. My 6 year old daughter got one of those for Christmas and is driving me nuts with it. Cute though.
  13. BigCecil
    We saw what? 5 weeks of Green. Mostly promising results to be sure but he is coming off major surgery. There is still a lot of risk there. This Board is always talking about the extreme volatility of relievers. Not without some good rationale.
  14. BigCecil
    Of course. The off season isnt complete. Some fan's reaction's are related to their perception of the last few seasons and a number of other things including heightened expectations surrounding the hunt for Sho and Soto and other big names Jays were in on or rumored to be in on (whether true or reporter's ********). While not "outraged", I happened to really hate watching IKF play when he was in pin stripes and I am really not looking forward to 2 seasons of him here. I get he is a glove and Espy sucks, but it sticks in my craw having to pay that kind of depth coming off a 0.2 WAR season 2/15. I dont know what the budget is other than what Shapiro said but we have spent $30M ish AAV on OF and IF D and a set up man coming off elbow surgery - so far. I still think a more major move via trade is in the works (that may or may not happen) and we pick up a Hoskins or a JD type bat.
  15. BigCecil
    Won a gold glove? Is that now a credible metric?
  16. BigCecil
    Fair take. Varsho needs to move to CF to be full value. Who doesn’t like KK, but $10M for D depth. We do need increased offense wherever it comes from. At 2+ WAR in '23 he was a bargain. I don't expect 130 gms and over 400 PAs again given his age and IL history.
  17. BigCecil
    Great morning. It just wouldn't be Christmas without my brother in law's 75 year old Dad trapping me at a family get together last night to tell me "Jays just need to play a little more small ball and they need to sign Chapman for $20M next year because they got nobody else to play 3B". Merry Christmas All!
  18. BigCecil
    Nothing wrong with that bud. I can be a little too much the other way sometimes. The world needs optimists. Jay's need optimists right now.
  19. BigCecil
    Great. Look forward to seeing what assets for taking on that boat anchor contract for free. I don't think its going to happen.
  20. BigCecil
    Just watched it. Man that is sooo classic.
  21. BigCecil
    Broken down 32 year old Yelich coming off a dead cat bounce season, and signed until 2029 on $24M AAV reeks of desperation. Maybe if he is free.
  22. BigCecil
    Every time I think of Irabu I can't help but think of that Seinfeld scene of George Constanza's Dad Frank raving in court about Steinbrenner giving him $12M.
  23. BigCecil
    Good piece. Passan stock is up in this off season. He has resisted the pressure to be first on a story and resisted joining the herd.
  24. BigCecil
    Max is far from stupid. He is however the all time champ of arguments of convenience glass half full cherry picking.
  25. BigCecil
    100% Greg. Total $200M crap shoot I'd prefer to avoid...unless it works out of course!
×
×
  • Create New...