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Orgfiller

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Everything posted by Orgfiller

  1. Orgfiller
    Interesting note about Kirk, he's actually not having all the bad of a hitting season if you look under the hood. His BABIP on the season sits at a lowly .257, which even with his poor foot speed is uncharacteristically low for a hitter with his all-fields, line drive approach. He has a .339 xwOBA, which is a 53 point underperformance from his actual wOBA. Sure, you can claim that Kirk will always lose a bit of expected output due to his pathetic baserunning ability costing him numerous infield singles and doubles, but never to this extent. His avg. exit velo and xwOBA sit comfortably in the 70th percentile, he doesn't swing and miss, draws a decent number of walks, and he's never been a barrel chaser but does connect hard. If his underperformance was more in the ballpark of 10-15 wOBA points lost due to his legs, we'd be probably be looking at him with a ~110 wRC+ and comfortably providing 3-4 WAR of value.
  2. Orgfiller
    The Jays signed IKF to a bargain 2/15 price, got an elite 2 WAR half season out of him, flipped him at his highest value for a stud in Charles McAdoo who RAKES in AA at a good age for the level, and then replaced IKF internally with literally another IKF at the league minimum. Absolute masterclass from Ross.
  3. Orgfiller
    It's all SSS and adjusting to the new level though. He was very good in A+ for them, albeit at not the best age for the level, and had only played 8 games in AA in his first taste.
  4. Orgfiller
    This is Buxton's second best hitting season lol. Your ability to be consistently confidently incorrect is incredible.
  5. Orgfiller
    Don't forget Wagner at 2B for maximum chaos. The new market inefficiency is gonna be pairing Berrios and other slick fielding pitchers to cover up for the abysmal infield defense.
  6. Orgfiller
    A big reason for their turnaround is Carroll has been closer to the level we saw from him last season in the second half. 149 wRC+ with an ISO nearing .350. Eugenio Suarez also rocking a 141 wRC+ since the break. Gabby Moreno at 152 wRC+ (limited playing time). They basically coasted long enough to not bottom out and now one hot streak has put them right back into real contention.
  7. Orgfiller
    Bieber for like a 2/$40-50M deal would be a dream, not sure if that's realistic though, and for a team that's on the low end of contention he might not even want to come here to have his bounceback. Maybe 1/20 deal with a player option for 2/60 for the next two seasons after that could get it done, but the risk is major with a relatively low reward if he's not fully healthy by May 2025. Buehler would be nice on a pillow deal, Gleyber you'll probably need some opt out laden contract to convince him.
  8. Orgfiller
    No way Manoah or Ricky T are options for next season. Best case they start real pitching around July ish, go on rehab for a month+, and between the inevitable setbacks and s*** performance from coming back from major arm surgery, best case they can relief for 2 innings at a time tops in late September. They're both strictly 2026 depth options at this point, let's hope they at least recover decently from their injuries, but I have even less faith in Ricky than I do Manoah to make it back as a contributor in the rotation. I can see Manoah coming back as a rock solid 4/5 innings eater with some potential for more, Ricky I think is doomed to relief, the innings just aren't there and he can't seem to handle a starter's load.
  9. Orgfiller
    To play devil's advocate to the notion that he would be a plus outfielder still, you kind of have to consider the fact that he's now 30 and has played the outfield in competitive games for all of 8 innings in his entire MLB career, and he never received one opportunity to make a play in those instances. How ever much he's out there shagging flyballs in BP pregame doesn't hold a candle to the instincts and muscle memory he's probably lost since playing the outfield in competitive games back in Japan. It's entirely possible the DH penalty is still more favourable than having him play defense at this point in time. After all, his teammate Teoscar Hernandez is the perfect example of a guy who should have all the tools to play an elite - let alone average - corner OF, and he's struggled immensely to do so his entire career, despite countless opportunities out there to improve. Won't argue with you about most talented player in history. That just goes without saying lol.
  10. Orgfiller
    Ah yes, and Elly has a totally sustainable .360 BABIP right? Not to mention the very sustainable 30 points of xWOBA overperformance right? Come on Jim, don't be obtuse just because you own one guy in fantasy. Elly has just as much variance as anyone with that K rate, the defense has been just above average but nowhere near Witt's level, and they're 1A and 1B in terms of sprint speed in the majors, both will post big numbers baserunning wise. Witt is clearly a much better player now, ELDC still has another level to reach to get there.
  11. Orgfiller
    Witt is projected to finish the season around 9-10 WAR, that would blow Tatis' 2021 season out of the water. With that said, I think Tatis' ceiling as a hitter is/was higher than Witt's, better plate discipline with 70 power whereas Witt is a 70 contact 60 power who chases (but makes contact) outside the zone a lot more. Witt is a more complete player though, elite defense at SS to Tatis who was average to bad, and both made an impact on the bases.
  12. Orgfiller
    Not sure if you just looked at the boxscore, but the Y. Rodriguez that got demolished today (and has been awful all season) isn't Yariel, it's some scrub AAAA reliever by the name of Yerry.
  13. Orgfiller
    Our pitching today is arguably worse than what he's been seeing at AAA all year.
  14. Orgfiller
    Walks too much.
  15. Orgfiller
    They're probably trying to stretch the trade being official for as long as possible so they can figure out the roster crunch from other trades going down.
  16. Orgfiller
    Gunnar Henderson is like the most valuable asset in baseball lol, he's not getting traded for Vlad and his $20+M arb salaries with not that much control left, let alone having to tack on to him. The Orioles arguably don't trade Vlad for Westburg straight up, although the Blue Jays don't do that either.
  17. Orgfiller
    I'm not sure how serious they are about selling Bassitt given his general dependability, but it's always in the cards to eat up some of his contract to improve the prospect return. I could see a Chad Green deal also having us eat some money.
  18. Orgfiller
    lol Dipoto
  19. Orgfiller
    I mean he's a smoke and mirrors guy that throws 92-93, it's not exactly irresponsible to be over using him. Former starter, doesn't get injured all that often, doesn't throw hard, is generally mediocre so it's not like you're saving him for high leverage. Trevor Richards is perfectly cromulent.
  20. Orgfiller
    You can see how it can come across though, don’t you?
  21. Orgfiller
    Famously immature players with long locks like Andrew McCutchen couldn't make it work so good thing it was the hair that was holding him back. It was all downhill for Manny Ramirez once he grew out his hair in Boston. Jose Reyes really matured for the Blue Jays once he got rid of his.
  22. Orgfiller
    Varsho’s defense has reached an insane level. Every night it’s a blockbuster catch guaranteed.
  23. Orgfiller
    He's been throwing it most of the season to get hitters to not sit on his sinker. It...has not been yielding results.
  24. Orgfiller
    Horwitz is another in the Davis Schneider mold in that the physical tools aren't huge - Horwitz's exit velos indicate 40-45 raw power at best - but he's an absolute sweet spot fiend. Unlike the Babe however, Horwitz has enough bat control and plate discipline to put a lot more balls in play.
  25. Orgfiller
    Buehler was elite he just broke. Coming back from major injury and closing in on 30. He could be cooked, but I'd take 2024 as a throwaway anyway, 2025 is the make or break year for him to determine if he can get back to being good or this is who he is.
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