Orgfiller
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Everything posted by Orgfiller
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With Clement I feel like you just hope that the BABIP favours him somewhat, because if he's swinging at everything and not necessarily hitting the ball particularly hard, there's bound to be some variance to the profile. As long as he's not getting totally exploited on pitches that even he couldn't hit - thinking breaking balls far outside the plate. Doubtful he'll gain any plate discipline, but I think the article shows that it's not a mirage that his ability to make contact is legit. If he can stick around league average on offense with excellent defense and good baserunning we'll take that. The defense is legit and he can play all over the infield at a high level. -
He's pretty much a butcher everywhere. The Reds didn't even play him at 3B in 2024 and they continually trotted out some serious butchers at the position in that campaign. He has some decent physical tools, above average as a runner (73rd percentile) and arm strength (78th) so maybe you hope you can teach him routes in LF to become playable? But the profile is a bad 1B/LF defender with average hitting for the position. It's not like he crushes the ball or is particularly good at squaring it up or hitting it at a good launch angle. You could platoon him, but then why spend resources acquiring a guy like that via trade unless he's basically given away when you could sign a lefty masher like Grichuk for cheap in FA.
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He has options, the Reds don't need to move him. Also, he was WOEFUL at 3B last season, there's a very high likelihood that Ernie is 2+ wins better and that's not even saying much about him.
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Would never take a pitcher over a hitter in this kind of challenge trade. Langford just put up a very respectable age 22 season, and projects very well, this is without even taking into account the absurd prospect pedigree he carries. Excellent runner with SB potential, power potential, and in no risk of not having a position any time soon, decent defensive metrics for whatever that's worth.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Orgfiller replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I wonder if the Scherzer and other players' deferrals are baked into it. Either way, Strasburg and Patrick Corbin have been some tough pills to swallow for Washington. At least they've properly built a solid farm system and have a nice young core, I'm sure they'll spend again when another contention window opens up. The Rockies though? Big yikes -
Steer sucks and Candelario can’t play 3B anymore. I feel like either McClain moves to 3B, or Elly moves there with the former taking over SS duties. Lux could also be a platoon option for some of these guys, Steer and Marte are both RHH.
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Brent Rooker signs 5/60 extension with the Athletics
Orgfiller replied to Stangstag's topic in Other Baseball
This is fair for both sides. On the surface it seems like a steal for the A’s, but Booker still had a lot of cheap years of control and is 30 years old as a DH only player. One season of regression or some age related decline as he enters free agency and he’s lucky to see half of that figure over the rest of his career. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Orgfiller replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
lol @ the Rockies. The f***ing Dodgers though, god damn. Light years ahead. -
It kind of makes sense that as a switch hitter he'd gain some HRs at the RC compared to the atrocity in Candem Yards in LF over the past couple of seasons. The dimensions are more extreme both ways, tall wall in RF, tall and absurdly far wall in LF (which is now coming back in). RC became harder overall but probably still more favourable for pull power hitters than Candem Yards.
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Yeah, basically split the difference on a 5/90 deal, reduce the tax hit with a lower AAV while spreading out the risk with the added year.
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I just can't see anyone actually willing to go to 5/100 for Santander. Either he really doesn't want to come here and is pushing us to go above our limit, in which case someone else will get him for the reported ~4/82 figure, or he's overvaluing himself and he'll remain unsigned until he settles at his projected price with another team closer to ST.
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The translation and the tweet you posted don't line up. All the tweet says is the Jays are rumoured to have the strongest interest and are probably leading the pack among the other interested teams - which include the Tigers and Yankees. What is this "BeisbolPlay" you're referring to? Nowhere does it say a deal is imminent.
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For what it's worth, MLBTR has him projected at 4/56 and in general they've been more closely aligned from projected to actual signing terms. I'd feel a bit icky going to 4 years on a 30 year old reliever with only two years of elite performance, but if you could bring down the AAV by making the total guaranteed amount closer to $50M or below I could be on board. Even a 3 year deal with higher than Fangraph's projected AAV I could stomach better, although at that point that's really taking a big chunk out of the budget room to add remaining.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)
Orgfiller replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Wagner will be close to retirement age by the time he's a free agent anyway so I think we'll survive on waiting on him to hit the open market lol. -
The Cleveland red was holding him back. 6 WAR season incoming.
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Meh, Bellinger has the biggest pumpkin risk of the group. He was already worse than both, defense has been declining, exit velos cratering. Shortest commitment helps but the likeliest of the group to just provide negative value straight up. I have more faith in Santander and Teo to be boring 2 WAR guys with big power and bad defense throughout the duration of most of their contracts.
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What about Christian Walker as a right handed hitter who mostly pulls his flyballs would make him especially more suited to Yankee Stadium?
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Fans say lots of things, but elite defense is really easy to sell. Look how much of a fan favourite Kiermaier was in his one season, how much Varsho endeared everyone with his constant elite play in the outfield. Not to mention the collection of scrappy scrubs with good defense like Ryan Goins, John McDonald, Darwin Barney, etc. I'm sure Gimenez will draw lots of "Alomar used to make those kinds of plays" comments from Buck and the fans will forget if he's hitting at or below league average. He'll be well liked, as they say: defense never slumps.
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I don't think you want Bellinger playing 1B with his current offensive output. He was already around the league average 1B production last year, and the Statcast/xwOBA numbers suggest even that was a mirage. His defense has also fallen off in the outfield, but you gotta play him there otherwise his value will tank even more.
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I think Gleyber Torres makes little sense now with the acquisition of Gimenez while Bo is still around. Assuming there's still interest given the expected price and potential upside, Gimenez to 3rd in a Torres signing would be the most inefficient scenario IMO. Bo and Torres up the middle would be woeful defense. If all those 3 guys existed in the field, the best course of action would be to slide Gimenez to SS and Bo to 3rd so that the former can cover for the deficiencies of the other two poor defenders around him. But that seems unlikely to happen unless the team is comfortable with changing Bo's position as he enters his FA walk year. Of course, a Bo trade could always be in the works, with Gimenez sliding to SS in his absence, in which case Torres becomes an appealing option once again.
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If this is the case then half the league is already offering him this price and he's holding out for a desperate team looking for power (e.g. Toronto Blue Jays) to offer him a 4th of 5th year. Something like 4/90 or 5/100-110 to keep the tax hit AAV low since apparently that's what every team cares about these days. The Dodgers are probably offering "4/100" with deferrals that make it closer to a 4/80 deal and Teoscar is being smart to hold out for more present value money.
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Wagner basically projects to be Spencer Horwitz, a year younger, with better exit velos and a bunch of MiLB options.
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Gimenez is a year younger than Horwitz.
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Jesus Sanchez is a poor man’s Teoscar who hits from the left side. I don’t know how long you can continue to buy his potential, he might just be mediocre. Tantalizing power but he’s got a bit of a low IQ reputation. I guess so did Teoscar and then he broke out anyway.
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Yeah definitely possible. Although while he's almost certainly better than Vlad, he'll be 2 years older entering free agency.
