Orgfiller
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Everything posted by Orgfiller
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$7M isn’t much but it doesn’t seem like the best use of resources for Cleveland on a decent not great reliever when they crank those guys out like it’s nothing. You’d think they would be putting the savings from Gimenez and Straw into a little more firepower than this.
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Just a note on the article, while Springer has been disappointing his last two seasons, he certainly hasn't been below replacement level. 3 fWAR combined the previous two seasons. Perhaps below average was the intended usage here? Also unless I'm misreading it appears that there's only 4 questions as opposed to 6. Four fair questions, mind you. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Orgfiller replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
This is great in theory, but we gotta have something of value to trade them for their assets. Only one that comes to mind is Bo Bichette, and that would just leave a hole for us elsewhere in the infield unless the contingency plan was to sing Alex Bregman. The Dodgers don't even care that they have too many pitchers because they know half of them will be injured, and they have ridiculous riches in ensuring there's excellent depth behind every one that goes down. I doubt they'll even have more than 7 healthy starters to begin the season, and they only care about guaranteeing the ones on MLB FA deals spots in the rotation. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Orgfiller replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Edit: accidentally quoted myself instead of editing the previous post and now I don't know how to delete this one. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Orgfiller replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Seeing we're connected to Profar still, and my question is...how would he fit? Don't get me wrong, I'd take him all day at a bargain contract, but it's a bit of an awkward fit after the recent transaction. Both he and Santander are bad OF defenders, with Profar rating even more unfavourably than the former. The obvious answer of course would be to split OF/DH duties with each other, but both players are starting calibre, so does it make sense to tie up the DH spot like this to not allow certain guys from getting days off the field? With all of that said, the fit from an offensive point of view would be fantastic. Profar projects well offensively, takes lots of walks, and like Santander is a switch hitter. Profar offsets Tony Tater's low OBP, trading some power for it. He strikes out little which we've seen this FO target more and more recently. Would really round out our top ~5 hitter core. Probably go something like Profar-Bo-Vlad-Santander-Springer/Kirk. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Orgfiller replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I mean this is essentially what decent depth looks like right? Bunch of young guys, most with options, who can play multiple positions and have shown success at the highest levels of MiLB. Of course they won't all be this good, but all you need is 3 hits from this group. We can group them even further: Can play SS: Jimenez Kasevich Clement Can play 2B/3B: Barger (3B only, badly) Schneider (2B only) Wagner (2B only?) Orelvis Clement Jimenez Kasevich Can play corner OF: Barger (badly, probably) Schneider (badly?) Roden Can play CF: Loperfido Clase The CF depth is rather weak, which isn't to excuse the Straw deal, but it does explain it a bit. Ernie is also currently slotted in at 3B, but at least there's options to take over SS and have others cover at 3B if Bo were to get injured (or traded). -
Is Roden himself a viable OF? I don't believe he is based on the scouting report. I could see him being marginally better on age alone, but I feel like Roden could use the occasional DH day of his own.
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People who can’t read Spanish should just stop posting tweets in Spanish and passing it off as news. You never get what’s actually being said so you’re click baiting yourself and others. Baerga is saying nothing here. He’s speculating that the Santander signing indicates to Vlad that the team is serious and he wouldn’t be surprised if this results in him signing a deal before ST. Proposed speculation amount will be between $450-550M.
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Not really. They'll be putting this money into escrow at which point they won't be touching it and just gathering interest on it to pay it off to the player in the future. This should have little impact on future teams. Arguably has positive impact in that their tax bill is lower for CBT purposes for future signings.
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The deferral just means the teams saves money over the lifetime of the contract. Barring Rogers entering a ponzi schema ala Bobby Bonilla, they get to spend a lot less on Santander than without these deferrals.
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As things currently stand it's 3B without question. If a 3B is signed or traded for then he's a utility guy all over the infield that gives guys days off from the field 1-2 days a week.
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If Vlad were Devers level defensively at 3B, that would actually be a massive boost to his defensive value lol. The difference between Devers' defensive value in his career compared to Vlad's has been about +1-2 WAR per season lol. If Devers could hit like Vlad or Vlad could field like Devers, that player would approach Miguel Cabrera levels of valuable.
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This point doesn't make any sense and is a bad faith argument. Kim projects for a 105 wRC+ and Clement for a 103 wRC+. If "you can hit Kim near the top of the lineup" because he has an okay OBP, then "you can hit Clement near the middle of the lineup" since he hits for more power and average and would thus drive more runs in with runners on base. Either way, you don't want either of those guys hitting that high because overall they're just alright hitters, and you'd hope you have at least 5 or 6 more reliable bats in front of them.
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And why should we believe he all of a sudden will become this guy? Alex Bregman could also all of a sudden become a 90 wRC+ bat upon signing him, could backfire. What if Daulton Varsho all of a sudden becomes a 125 wRC+ bat? We can't just be pulling hypotheticals out of our ass without legitimate reasons to back them up. Literally any free agent signing could be a disaster, that's the name of the game. Bo Bichette all of a sudden became a replacement level player in 2024, doesn't mean I'm commending the FO for expecting that chance and not extending him to a Corey Seager contract before that happened.
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You're gonna have a hard time convincing me that a player who is in the 2nd percentile of range at 1B might actually be a viable option at a more difficult position. Vlad, 100 lbs lighter in 2019, was a -20 OAA defender holy s*** that's bad. I hadn't even looked at the data from that far back. Now that he's even less mobile, I'm just not picturing him magically being even a -5 defender level of bad.
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For who? There's basically no downside to the team doing deferrals, they have to put the money into escrow anyway, so for them it means paying less now and pocketing/investing the savings into something else.
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This is a pretty significant amount deferred, I wonder what this entails for tax calculations. Pulling this out of my ass, if we use similar convertion rates for Ohtani's 10/700 figure to the "actual" 10/460 that it costs the Dodgers, the original 5/92 guarantee is actually more like a 5/60-75 deal in terms of what the team has to actually pay? That's substantial for the AAV hit in the CBT.
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I wonder how bad it can get for Vlad at 3B. He's already pretty much as bad as it gets at 1B, which is insane to think about, but he legitimately has a good arm. There's like a +10 run adjustment between 1B and 3B, the worst case scenario here is 2007 Ryan Braun at -32 DRS (lol) good for -27 runs of value defensively, i.e. 2.7 WAR lost to defense. Would Vlad be the worst 3B defender ever, or can he hide his brutal range with enough arm strength to "only" provide -15 to -20 runs of defensive value. It wouldn't help of course that his current projected partner at SS is Bo Bichette, it would be a complete nightmare on the left side of the infield.
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I can't see Kim happening at this rate. Set to miss the start of the season and he projects to be Ernie Clement with more walks and Ks, for FA prices. Just doesn't make sense. If we're shooting for a big improvement at 3B it's Bregman or (trade) or bust. Or like, Yoan Moncada on a 1 year deal lol.
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Not sure why you would filter for RF and not OF as a whole when Teoscar spent all of 2024 in LF. When you include all OF, Teoscar is at -16 OAA/-6 DRS. Granted ol' Tony Taters is at -12 OAA/-12 DRS so not exactly Kiermaier out there. OAA in particular has Teoscar as being unplayable over the last 1-2 seasons with Santander being below average but not catastrophic. Last 1-2 seasons being more relevant since Teoscar is two years older and at 32 might be entering his physical decline phase.
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Both Santander and Springer are playable in the outfield still. Santander the weaker of the group with below average range, but he's not a total butcher out there like a Teoscar. Springer just needs to clean up his throws, still providing average range with above average arm strength, but he's been brutal in terms of arm value. It won't really matter if Straw is on the team or not. Loperfido, Clase, Berroa are all fast athletic types who can go get it out there. Straw is of course the superior defender and quite elite at that, but the others would get the job done. A Varsho, Springer and one of Straw/Loperfido/Clase/Berroa in the 9th inning defensively would be good enough for added run prevention.
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Show the other part of the slash you blanket wetter.
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This is not a “f*** it ball out” type of contract lol. It’s a compromise between the two parties, 5 years at a lower than projected AAV.
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I wouldn't want to speculate, but I wonder if the deferred money calculations would actually have us under this threshold. That could mean this is our last signing of the offseason which would be underwhelming considering that we've added in an effort to compete but still have some holes to fill.
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I wonder by how much the deferred money brings down the AAV for tax calculations. Seems like decent business on our end even if the 5 years guarantee is steep.
