Orgfiller
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Everything posted by Orgfiller
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TIL Dick Fitts is/was a top 100 prospect. I guess with that in mind his ceiling is likely higher as a SP4/5, which makes even more sense why the Cards are fine sending this much money back,
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He's trash with decent max EV and can play all infield positions. Likely just sticks in AAA most of the year covering all over the infield. Unlikely we see him unless we suffer multiple 60 day IL stints.
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This makes it far more reasonable for the Red Sox. Reduces the luxury tax hit significantly. On the Cards side, they shed salary, gain a top 100 50 FV prospect plus an optionable depth arm that has a chance to be a rosterable SP5/6.
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It's 1/35 with an attached club option for 1/30 that has a $5M buyout. So 1/40 if the Sox decline the club option. But it's essentially a mutual option since Gray can decide to opt out if the club option is picked up.
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It's $35M for 2026 with a $30M club option for '27 with a $5M buyout. The Cards are eating money it seems, so we'll see just how much which will inform the value both teams are getting from it. Gray is still quite good and projects for 4 WAR - this seems like an error tbh, he's been at 3.8 and 3.6 the last two seasons and they somehow expect him to pitch more innings in his age 36 season than he has since 2015. Nevertheless, he's still a very good pitcher and I could see the Sox potentially accepting the club option if he's in the 3.5 WAR range again. Of note though, is that the velo declined by a tick last season. This kind of thing doesn't tend to bounce back as a pitcher ages, and Gray is already undersized as an SP, so will be interesting to follow if it keeps declining and how it could affect his performance. Edit: just saw Gray can opt out if the team picks up the club option, in which case the buyout is forfeited. Interesting contract structure.
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He doesn’t really seem like a target for either team tbh. Guy who was never overpowering or had elite stuff (Rays love these), not a command artist (Guardians love these), and has a big ego. Not exactly within their model of unheralded guys that they can squeeze more out of.
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Mark Leiter Jr. and Ian Hamilton both non-tendered by the Yankees. Potentially decent cheap options for middle relief depth. Aaron Boone used Leiter like the second coming of Andrew Miller, but he’s actually been pretty good for the last 3 seasons despite the mixed results in 2025. Use him in low to medium leverage and he could be a valuable part of a bullpen.
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Jeff Passan Links Blue Jays to Cody Bellinger
Orgfiller replied to Bryan Jaeger's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Easy with the hyperbole Jonn. Santander got basically the exact contract Josh Naylor just got, while being a year older with the same production, and cheaper when factoring in deferrals. Seriously, look them up, Santander from 2022-2024 was basically the exact same player as Naylor from 2023-2025. Obviously him being injured all year and pure garbage when he did play will make you cringe, but if he had met projections then he wouldn't be viewed as some black hole contract. That's the luck of FA sometimes, not like you could've expected him to be literally one of the worst players in the league. -
Jeff Passan Links Blue Jays to Cody Bellinger
Orgfiller replied to Bryan Jaeger's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Bellinger would also allow you to dump Straw since we wouldn't need an extra CF, and Lukes would seamlessly take on the 4th OF role who can actually pinch hit and you wouldn't cringe. -
Yeah at that price point I’d rather let him go elsewhere. I’m assuming the elevated dollars is due to only being a one year deal.
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The Red Sox will generally play at the top of the FA market when they deem it necessary. The O's have not shown any sort of willingness to do so.
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I don't either, but it could just mean they can't realistically afford both Bo and Tucker so they're going for Bo and Belli, alongside an SP of course. Daydreaming lol.
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Yup, that's the one.
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Definitely not ready to say Holliday is a bust and won't develop further, but Witt Jr. is much more of a freak athlete. 100th percentile speed since he's been in the league, with max exit velos indicative of a premium power hitter, and these tools translated into him also becoming an elite defender at SS. Holliday has already shifted down the defensive spectrum and was horrendous at 2B last season. Holliday's ceiling is probably like Robinson Cano? But even post prime Cano had a grade/grade+ higher in raw power output. Whereas Bobby Witt Jr. is trending like an inner circle HOF.
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Did not realize how bad Cowser was in 2025. This is an excellent discovery.
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Yes, hence the comment about his performance declining. He basically performed like a worse version of Chris Bassitt. Not sure if he should even have been offered the QO. Kind of a blessing in disguise for Arizona that he turned it down, not that a 1/22 commitment is awful or anything for an average innings eater.
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Rodriguez is definitely cooked if this is what they’re getting back for him. Still a strange roster fit for the O’s.
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I honestly have no idea what Zac Gallen is expecting out of FA by rejecting the QO. His performance has been declining for two straight years to the point where he was a below average innings eater this year. He’s also on the wrong side of 30 now. Now with a QO attached it’s gonna kill his market. Hope for like a 3/45-50 deal? Maybe he just really hates Arizona and the bad vibes that it’s brought to their pitching staff.
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If his fastball velo jumps back up at least a tick I think he's still in for a big payday.
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I feel like all of these guys are expensive enough at that price point that they should take it, lest their market be even more hampered by the fact that teams will now have to forfeit a draft pick to sign them. I feel like nobody is giving them a 4 year deal, and if they are they could make anywhere from 30-50% of the deal value in just taking the QO.
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To be fair, regression to the mean could have you believe that Bo could very well work himself back into shape, and return to his "bad but good enough because he's a shortstop" defensive value. Naturally the projections don't have all the information available. Bo is entering his age 28 season, and this isn't normally where you'd expect defensive utility to fall off a cliff. The Varsho projection on the other hand, makes absolutely no sense. Has to be an error in the inputs.
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Non negative in this case means the positional adjustment from SS makes up for his otherwise below average defense at the position. Historically Bo has never provided "negative" defensive value because relatively bad defense at SS is still valuable. In 2025 he was horrendous though. The projections are regressing him to his career mean, but it doesn't account for the fact that he's a beefy boy now with leg injuries beginning to mount.
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The only real question marks for Iglesias is that he's getting up there in age. He's as rock solid as they come otherwise. Been aging as one of the best "old guy" relievers out there, but you start to worry that eventually he'll hit a wall. Sign me up for a reasonable one year deal of course.
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The Blue Jays didn't even give Yarbrough a second look as a depth option following a half a season where he was legitimately kind of good for them. The Yankees guaranteed him a roster spot two weeks into FA after he was injured for most of the year and not even that good for them, lol. Entering his age 34 season btw. Stark difference in what winning organizations do vs those struggling to keep up.
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Not sure what Austin Martin you're talking about, but the one on the Twins that lives on the injured list, has no power, and plays every position he's assigned poorly is most certainly not showing 2-3 WAR potential. If anything SWR is the one we'd like to have back from that deal the most. Horwitz does seem like a decent piece who might carve out a nice career, but I don't think we should be crying about losing Lyle Overbay for our starting SS in the WS and next year and beyond.
