Orgfiller
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Everything posted by Orgfiller
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Jeff Passan Links Blue Jays to Cody Bellinger
Orgfiller replied to Bryan Jaeger's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Bellinger would also allow you to dump Straw since we wouldn't need an extra CF, and Lukes would seamlessly take on the 4th OF role who can actually pinch hit and you wouldn't cringe. -
Yeah at that price point I’d rather let him go elsewhere. I’m assuming the elevated dollars is due to only being a one year deal.
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The Red Sox will generally play at the top of the FA market when they deem it necessary. The O's have not shown any sort of willingness to do so.
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I don't either, but it could just mean they can't realistically afford both Bo and Tucker so they're going for Bo and Belli, alongside an SP of course. Daydreaming lol.
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Yup, that's the one.
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Definitely not ready to say Holliday is a bust and won't develop further, but Witt Jr. is much more of a freak athlete. 100th percentile speed since he's been in the league, with max exit velos indicative of a premium power hitter, and these tools translated into him also becoming an elite defender at SS. Holliday has already shifted down the defensive spectrum and was horrendous at 2B last season. Holliday's ceiling is probably like Robinson Cano? But even post prime Cano had a grade/grade+ higher in raw power output. Whereas Bobby Witt Jr. is trending like an inner circle HOF.
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Did not realize how bad Cowser was in 2025. This is an excellent discovery.
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Yes, hence the comment about his performance declining. He basically performed like a worse version of Chris Bassitt. Not sure if he should even have been offered the QO. Kind of a blessing in disguise for Arizona that he turned it down, not that a 1/22 commitment is awful or anything for an average innings eater.
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Rodriguez is definitely cooked if this is what they’re getting back for him. Still a strange roster fit for the O’s.
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I honestly have no idea what Zac Gallen is expecting out of FA by rejecting the QO. His performance has been declining for two straight years to the point where he was a below average innings eater this year. He’s also on the wrong side of 30 now. Now with a QO attached it’s gonna kill his market. Hope for like a 3/45-50 deal? Maybe he just really hates Arizona and the bad vibes that it’s brought to their pitching staff.
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If his fastball velo jumps back up at least a tick I think he's still in for a big payday.
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I feel like all of these guys are expensive enough at that price point that they should take it, lest their market be even more hampered by the fact that teams will now have to forfeit a draft pick to sign them. I feel like nobody is giving them a 4 year deal, and if they are they could make anywhere from 30-50% of the deal value in just taking the QO.
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To be fair, regression to the mean could have you believe that Bo could very well work himself back into shape, and return to his "bad but good enough because he's a shortstop" defensive value. Naturally the projections don't have all the information available. Bo is entering his age 28 season, and this isn't normally where you'd expect defensive utility to fall off a cliff. The Varsho projection on the other hand, makes absolutely no sense. Has to be an error in the inputs.
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Non negative in this case means the positional adjustment from SS makes up for his otherwise below average defense at the position. Historically Bo has never provided "negative" defensive value because relatively bad defense at SS is still valuable. In 2025 he was horrendous though. The projections are regressing him to his career mean, but it doesn't account for the fact that he's a beefy boy now with leg injuries beginning to mount.
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The only real question marks for Iglesias is that he's getting up there in age. He's as rock solid as they come otherwise. Been aging as one of the best "old guy" relievers out there, but you start to worry that eventually he'll hit a wall. Sign me up for a reasonable one year deal of course.
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The Blue Jays didn't even give Yarbrough a second look as a depth option following a half a season where he was legitimately kind of good for them. The Yankees guaranteed him a roster spot two weeks into FA after he was injured for most of the year and not even that good for them, lol. Entering his age 34 season btw. Stark difference in what winning organizations do vs those struggling to keep up.
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Not sure what Austin Martin you're talking about, but the one on the Twins that lives on the injured list, has no power, and plays every position he's assigned poorly is most certainly not showing 2-3 WAR potential. If anything SWR is the one we'd like to have back from that deal the most. Horwitz does seem like a decent piece who might carve out a nice career, but I don't think we should be crying about losing Lyle Overbay for our starting SS in the WS and next year and beyond.
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Yes, but he'll now be 26 coming off injury and hasn't sniffed AAA. It's hard to keep those guys in the 40-man even if they'd be nice to have in the minors as depth and they might pop up as guys elsewhere.
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I agree, but he could just be completely broken. The last time he even had a reliever's workload of innings was in 2022. He could come back throwing 93 with no command.
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I doubt they give up on Tiedemann entirely although I could see it, but nobody could give less of a f*** about Cooke and Brock. Definitely think we retain Arias, although can't really see any team keeping him on the MLB roster for the full year. 21 and with only 150 bad PAs in AA or above.
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Diaz is excellent, but you could probably sign Suarez and Fairbanks for less money and term than Diaz would command on his own.
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The difference maker here is the defense. Straw plays premium OF defense including at CF, whereas Clase seem average at best in a corner. Clase is a much (like 10 points of wRC+) better hitter, and at least is a switch hitter for whatever little that means since he's not exactly a world beater against either side. Speed is probably a wash although Clase might be more willing to go for a stolen base in a key spot, for better or for worse.
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Is he becoming their hitting coach? If so makes sense that he would leave/they would let him. Mense seemed to be close with a number of the players like Davis Schneider, you always saw them together during the celebrations. Hopefully we bring in another young forward thinking guy who's up with the times.
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This feels worse than just sending back $50M in straight cash to the Padres along with a couple of prospects lol. Having to pay Bogaerts until 2033 and a rehabbing old Darvish until 2028 is so gross lol. If you play the salary dump game you're gonna have a bad time. It would kill our tax bill and depth. I'd only consider eating the Darvish contract and even then it kills our financial flexibility. Rogers will spend but not outrageously so.
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Oh yeah, wasn't trying to imply he'd be the best arm in our bullpen or anything, there's definitely some concerning warning signs. Just mentioning that while the stuff has declined, he's somewhat tried to adjust by locating better so he doesn't totally fall off the table. He's not the monster he was in 22-23, but he should be a valuable reliever in the bullpen who you can feel comfortable putting into high leverage spots. And hopefully the red flags in his profile bring his price down to account for the risk.
