KingKat
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Everything posted by KingKat
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Look I agree that Candy would have been better off leaving you alone but for god's sake if he baits you into an argument, you are under no obligation to take the bait. If you want to let him provoke you into getting yourself banned, go right ahead but if you do that, you're only doing exactly what he wants you to do.
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If this going to be the tone of your posts, you might just have to go back into forced hiding. Behave please. I know you were somewhat provoked but your reaction is out of proportion.
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I followed the Jays religiously back then. Every single game. I thought Olerud was great in 1993 but I also sided with those who thought Molitor was better and I was disappointed (stupidly) with everything Olerud did as a Jay after 1993.
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From what I understand there was too much value placed on 1B defense so a good fielding one like Olerud would be overly rewarded and a negative one like Delgado overly punished.
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Oh no doubt. Some really terrible player evaluation and the crazy thing is that none of us fans knew any better. It's crazy the strides that have been made in player evaluations since then.
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I think there are issues around defensive WAR for 1B around that time period. Which isn't to say that Olerud's career isn't generally underated (it is) bus his WAR might be a bit inflated and the gap between him and Delgado is probably smaller.
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I guess you subscribe to the Hal McRae school of managing.
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I didn't realize until now that Lowry was acquired by BC. You're right that Ujiri's best moves seem to have been addition by substraction (Gay, Bargnagni) moves.
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Maybe not. I know some people on this board have said that they figured the difference between Donaldson and Trout in WAR this year could easily just be noise but I may have just assumed you agreed with that view when you never actually stated such a thing. I guess your argument for Donaldson as MVP was more about Donaldson's edge in context dependent stats and didn't imply that the difference in WAR was not true.
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I don't love Wilner but I don't agree with that characterisation. Wilner is not the smartest, most current baseball thinker by any stretch but he does have certain core beliefs, essentially the ones laid out in Moneyball, OBP is better than AVG, OPS is a good measure of offensive value. While a lot of the baseball world uses wOBA or wRC+ for offensive value now and quotes WAR as a measure of total value, Wilner hasn't really embraced these concepts. OBP and OPS have been his go to stats for years and while it's true that he is a homer and will put a positive spin on certain things, it's not really needed here. Gibbons putting Tulo in the leadoff spot aligns perfectly with what Wilner has been trumpeting for at least a decade.
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I don't subscribe to the theory that defensive value is poorly measured because of outliers and variances. I absolutely do believe in good and bad defensive seasons. Players take stuff to the field, they are not always at their best, physically or emotionally and s*** happens on both sides of the ball. My not at all well researched impression though is that a lot of noises comes pretty early in the process at the data collection level. I could be very wrong though. I'm admitedly well out of my depth. I know that you have argued that the difference between Trout and Donaldson in WAR this year might just be noise but I didn't realize that you assumed an even distribution of noise. I guess I just assumed it was mostly from defense and positional adjustment.
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I was going to play devil's advocate here and argue something along the lines that you get a truer measure of value from someone who provides value on offense than from someone who mostly provides it on defense since D is noisy as hell but Aybar's offensive value is a lot murkier than I first realized. He's coming off a dreadful season and doesn't project very well at all. I don't hate the thought process here but the valuations on basically everyone involved seem really, really off.
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I don't hate the idea of trading Simmons for Aybar and prospects in theory. It's a lot of faith to put in Albies but if the other prospects are good enough, the trade could be a win and setup an interesting young core. The problem is that the team that owned Aybar didn't have the prospects to make a trade like this work. I think the Braves liked Aybar and squinted a little too hard at the other pieces to convince themselves to pull the trigger.
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AA has had some very conservative offseasons. I'm not saying the comparison would hold up to rigorous analysis but on that point I'd argue that AA has been mostly conservative with the notable exception of two attempts (one failed, one successful) at going all in. Masai, I assume, would probably do something similar if he started feeling some heat and needed to make a splash (in as much as the Raptor resources and situation would allow him).
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He's probably a lot like AA with strengths in soft skills rather than in rigorous analysis. He can work the phones, he can surprise you with some of the trades he pulls off but he isn't necessarily very deep in his understanding. Both would probably have been elite GMs in another era but might be a bit behind the times in this one (though not flat out bad by any stretch).
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War is not leverage weighted. Kimbrel and Hendriks had the same fWAR this year despite the later getting next to no leverage. Their context neutral performance was essentially the same but their context independent performances were radically different. If you want a stat that compares leverage, you need to look a WPA (Win Probability Added). Kimbrel had a 3.32 while Hendriks was -0.42. So Kimbrel's value was basically doubled because of good high leverage performance while Hendriks' performance accomplished very little when it came to game situations, he basically just ate innings despite pitching very well. -
The seal is broken-- another qualifying offer accepted
KingKat replied to jglicksm's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Maybe he was going to fail his physicals... -
The seal is broken-- another qualifying offer accepted
KingKat replied to jglicksm's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Or maybe he did his client a solid. The first ever player to accept a Q.O. in the old system was Greg Maddux, a Boras client. Maddux read the tea leaves and determined that was the best return for Maddux. The Braves didn't really want to pay him either but they just assumed he would decline because everyone else had. -
Yeah don't understand why they didn't just ride Uehara for one more season and worry about finding a closer after that.
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Kind of ironic because he's gotten in trouble in the past for not understanding what his role on the team is. Delusions of grandeur.
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Asuaje is Margot's translator. As much as I've held a torch for the guy, he might not really have any value beyond that. I'm not at all surprised that they were packaged together.
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Pillar going full Arencibia. Never go full Arencibia.
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Logan Allen is only 18 with 8 games played. Could be absolutely anything at this point. Drafted in the 8th round.
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Interesting...
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Pretty much up in the air now.
