Olerud363

I'm being sarcastic. I don't really think he was playing Chess. He used some of his relievers and they performed. He did exactly as you wanted (removed Chatwood) in one of the Tampa games, and the next guy imploded too. So no guarantee removing Chatwood a couple of batter earlier would of worked. This is the point. Charlie's mistake don't lose games. They lose 10% of a game. Over a season? Maybe they lose a game or 2. Even really good teams often don't do good in 1 run games. Tampa Bay this year has a losing record in 1 run games, same with Yankees in 2019. 2015 Jays 15-28 in one run games. But unbelievably still won 93. One run games are luck. No magic manager is going to win the pennant (consistently) by going 30-15 in 1 run games every year. Charlie just splits the close games like everyone else.

I don't think he was trying to prove a point. They probably discussed this scenario before hand and decided they wanted to avoid having a guy warm up behind Chatwood because it didn't work last time. It's weird that they did things both ways 1. In the Tampa game they had a guy warming up behind Chatwood and did bring him in, Bergen blew it and they lost 2. In the Cleveland game they did it the other way, tried to avoid having a guy warm up, because maybe it got in Chatwood's head... this didn't work either. All of this complaining is contingent on Romano being a great reliever and available whenever we want. How do we know Romano can pitch both ends of double header ? Or 4 times in 5 days? He also has a bit of an injury history. And how do we even know Romano is that good? He looks great in 30 career innings, but so did Steve Delebar.

He did a fantastic job at managing the bullpen last night. He went all out knowing the Jays were fighters and could crawl back, he played Chess with the scrub relievers choosing the right one inning after inning. They managed to hold the Marlins to 1 run over 5 1/3. Great stuff. In particular he chose to use Carl Edwards at a critical moment. And it worked out. Great move. He also has refused to move Bo Bichette off short stop or from second in the order. A Cito Gaston like confidence builder which led directly to the key triple in the 9th. Great stuff.

Donaldson June and July of 2016, Olerud first half of 1993, was .411 .500 .700 in mid June. Delgado, Bautista, EE all had 2 month stretches as good. EE was Barry Bonds on horse steroids insane August 2015, and very good September 15, so those two months together are about as good as anyone else's two months. However as mentioned Vlad is doing this in a year where offense is way down... He's quietly now leading the batting race by 20 points somehow. He's kind of hovered in the .330s while everyone else has dropped. The guy LaRussa yelled at for swinging 3-0 went from .380 to .310 in like 10 days after LaRussa yelled at him... lol

The Board needs to contact the Jays organization Dear Mr. Shapiro and Mr. Atkins Our message board has shown that Charlie Montoya is costing the Jays 10 games a year. Given 110 games left this season he will cost them 7-8 more games. It has been a tough 2 years, and we are hoping to see the Blue Jays back in Toronto in late August, God, Justin, and Doug Ford willing. Wouldn't it be great for the city to have a wild card race and potential playoffs? An additional 7 wins is likely the difference between 83 win also-rans, and 90 win wild card winners. Firing Charlie is not only the right thing for the fans, but would be a great financial move, as it could add 10s of millions of dollars in profit for Rogers, given the value of a playoff race and some playoff games. Thank you BJMB

Buck Martinez and Carlos Tosca were also removed mid season It's happened 4 times in Blue Jays history

Managers are removed mid season every year. It happened to the Jays twice already. 1. Jimy Williams removed May 1989 - Cito Gaston Hired 2. John Gibbons removed June 2008 - Cito Gaston Hired You are saying that Jimy Williams and Gibby, by all accounts half decent managers were removed mid season but Charlie, a historically bad manager costing a team 10 wins a year, can't be?

The problem with the Waterloo Math nerd is that this person will know the true percentages and won't be a great convincer. "Charlie, don't bunt, if you hit away we have a 52.5% chance of winning and if you bunt it's only 51.8%". Charlie "I like those odds". You need one of the fine posters on this board to do the job. "For GOD'S sake Charlie, don't f***ing bunt! If you do we will lose, you will blow the game and the season and get your f***ing self fired and probably I'll get fired too. For all that is good on earth, you moron DO NOT BUNT. You're costing us 5 games a week!!!!" Charlie "That guy is loud, but he might have a point"

This is insane. 8-10 wins is a 50 million dollar player. It's Mike Trout. If this was true all of them should be fired. This team will end up with 80 something wins. To throw away 8-10 is throwing away a playoff spot. There is zero chance this front office is just throwing away 8-10 wins. They've looked at every move Charlie has made and they know it's not costing much.

Like Vlad he also has a fairly high ground ball rate. Could be he (and Vlad) are the next level down from Ted Williams/1990s Frank Thomas and while they will look that good for a couple of months at a time, they will also sometimes go a few weeks with 2 homers and a bunch of double plays. Is it possible to be 1990s Frank Thomas with a 50% ground ball rate?

We are 1/3 of the way through the season. If Charlie has changed the win total by 1,2,3, or 4 games at this point it would amount to 3,6,9 or 12 games over a season. Is there any evidence that is true? We can never get an exact answer. However there are some things you can do 1. Look at win probabalities in games and note how Charlie's moves change the win probabilities. 2. Look at WAR and evaluate how Charlie's playing time decision are changing team WAR. 3. Look at Shapiro and Atkins actions, they have better information then we do, and have a team of analysists assigned to answer this question. Are they acting like Charlie is costing the team many wins?

Why isn't Shapiro and/or Atkins firing him? They are smart guys. They just want to throw away 5 wins a year? If they don't care about wins yet, why the Springer signing? Why pay 150 million for what (optimistically) would amount to 4 wins a year, but throw away that many by refusing to fire Charilie. Don't stop at Charlie, fire Shapiro and Atkins if you believe this s***. If I was Rogers I'd be pissed at paying 150 million for 4 wins, when I could of got it just by firing Charlie.

lol. This board has lost it's collective mind. Answer me this. If Charlie is such a huge problem why isn't he fired? There are two possibilities a) the front office believes Charlie isn't costing them any games the front office believes Charlie's decisions might cost them a couple of games a year, but aren't concerned about this yet, as they are happy with other aspects of his job. c) the front office believes Charlie is costing the team 5 or more games a year but don't care. The math says he's costing them a couple games a year. If the math is wrong and c) is true the front office is incompetent. You guys are implying the front office is fine tossing away 5-10 games a year? That is insane.

If he used a 6-8 WAR player (like 2021 Vladdy appears to be) as a pinch hitter he'd reduce team WAR by about 80% of 6-8, as he'd reduce Vladdy's at bats by 80%. That would be an obvious 5-6 WAR reduction. It would reduce team runs by 50 or something. Choosing one crappy reliever over another isn't anywhere close to that kind of decision. He's actually reducing team WAR by almost nothing because none of these reliever will have much of a difference between them in the end. He's not really changing the run differential. It comes down to whether managers can out-perform the run differential. Which I don't think there is evidence that they can. Point in case Gibby. In 2015 he was horrible in 1 run games and vastly underperformed the run differential. His performance until AA went berzerk was similar to Charlie's this year... he had better relievers for the first 4 months, and a bullpen of insanity the last 2... still 13-28 in 1 run games, and 10 game under-performance in pythagoran. And Gibby is a good manager, but luck was against him that year..

Key events 1. Espinal made a key error 2. Matz lost it after 5 dynamite innings 3. Chatwood had nothing and f'd up the rest of the 6th. 4. Chatwood began the 7th and walked 2. 5. Chatwood was left in too long and walked 2 more. 6. Castro gave up a hard line drive deep enough to score the run. Number 5 is what people are going crazy about, my point is that everyone is acting like that was the game... it wasn't. It was 15% of the game or something. And that is why the Manager actually doesn't have as much effect on the game as this board thinks. The 15 most idiotic crappy things Charlie does over 162, are each 15% of a game, and add up to 2 games over the season.

In 2015 Gibby was 15-28 in 1 run games, and underperformed the teams Pythagoran by 10 games. And he had a killer bullpen. If Gibby is such a genius why did this happen? Mostly bad luck. I am sure he made many good moves and they still went wrong. Manager does not have that much effect on the games. Different moves with the same talent will lead to a similar record long term, just different things will go wrong in different games. Gibby had a talented team the first 4 months of 2015, with a better back of bullpen (Osuna, Hendricks, Cecil first 4 months), and it was doing the same as this team, even though they had the legendary Gibby.

What moves would you have made? Are you suggesting they should of released Chatwood? Are you suggesting as of yesterday he should of been already moved out of the top 3 arms? In retrospect the right move would of been to remove Chatwood after two walks in the 7th. Even at that point most of the damage had been done. Leaving him in for an extra batter didn't "lose" a game. It lost 15% of a game or something. According to Blue Jays message board, there are mythical teams that are medium talent, with bad bullpens, that go 30-18 in 1 run games because of savy managing. It doesn't matter that this doesn't exist. It makes Blue Jays Message Board happy to pretend it does. A different manager, would lose different games, in different extruciating ways with this horrible bullpen, but the end result wouldn't be much different.

I like Gibby too, and would be perfectly happy to see him still in charge. However in 2015 he had a lights out 20 year old Roberto Osuna a lights out 22 year old Aaron Sanchez who was nails as a reliever Liam Hendricks in the midst of his first great, great relief season that no one appreciated for some reason Brett Cecil having a great season Mark Lowe Latroy Hawkins Ryan Tepara as like the 7th guy This board has lots it's mind. No Gibby would not be 6 games better with crap bullpen we have, he'd make different choices and they'd lose different games, different ways, and still be about the same maybe 1 game better.

The problem is there is no one else. Castro is a no-name rookie with 10 innings under his belt. Maybe A.J. Cole could of been used.

I totally agree with this. However what reliever on this team does have good career stats? I think it was reasonable to use Romano in the first game. A lot of people think that using Romano was the mistake. However we don't have a second reliever we can trust, so had to just take the first win there.

Matz and Stripling were both cruising. Matz stopped cruising as often happens. He made the exact decision you wanted (let a cruising pitcher go a bit further) and it back-fired.

He was, until last week the second best reliever on the team. Unless there is a health issue or a mental issue you have to go with him. The real problem is the 3 of the 4 relievers on the team are going to miss either the entire season or most of it. They have an assortment of the scrub relievers and Chatwood looked good for almost 2 months. I don't think you can give up on him after one outing. After two it's obvious something is wrong

They don't. Chatwood walked several guys. That's why the Jays lost. If Chatwood is used in the first game instead of Romano and he does the same, they lose that one. If they bring in Castro one batter earlier, they still probably lose. Not very many managers would bring in Castro two batters earlier as you have to give Chatwood a chance to work it out.

On the other hand Ray's xFIP is fine. His homerun per fly ball rate will also probably normalize. In fact Stripling, Ray and Matz all have lower xFIP then ERAs. I don't think the three of them will regress as a group. If anything they will be a bit better in run prevention. Neither Hatch, Pearson or Kay are needed right now as starters (that could change fast though), so there is the possibility of using those guys as relievers if others in the bullpen implode.

Gio Urshella is hitting at his career average. That's really all the projection system does. You can make your own. Career average * (1 - (age-27)/27*a) I think the above is right -- maybe a typo -- the idea would be you improve a bit up to 27 then decay a bit, so career average * an age factor