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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    I double checked this after reading a 538 article that had Ohtani rated higher, had him headed for 9 and the next best guy headed for 7 and claimed the 2 WAR difference was historical. However that is more that no one else having a 9 WAR season this year, and many years there is. A fair number of hitters and pitchers have put up 10 WAR seasons in the last 30 years. Pedro Martinez, Clemens, Johnson, A-Rod, Bonds, Trout, Ripken, Henderson, Mookie Betts Truly historic value would be more like 11, 12 WAR. Which Ohtani could do if he pitched more innings and improved his on base percentage.
  2. Olerud363
    Trout, A-Rod and Bonds alone will have like 20 seasons of equivalent fWAR and a few that are better. Weird. Ohtani looks like he is headed for 5 or so position player WAR and 3 pitching WAR. Every year someone has 9 or 10 WAR. The Vlad vs. Ohtani race will probably be closer in WAR then the 2012/13 Cabrera vs. Trout races. The story is great but the value isn't historical.
  3. Olerud363
    Just meant in the HR race. Semien has out-homered Vlad 5-4 I believe since Detroit Series, making up ground on him even though Vlad hit his 40th. It will be interesting to see who gets more MVP votes. They will be close in WAR. I will have to check tomorrow but fWAR is 5.8 to 5.6 for Vlad, but bWar is Semien. Say the WAR is tied. Argument for Semien is "leadership" (not saying I buy that but voters might). Argument for Vlad might be that the system's aren't registering his 1b defense. Maybe others more knowledge-able about D metrics will chime in. Vlad is still around -10 on fangraphs. Really good first basemen usually manage a slightly positive fangraphs defense rating.
  4. Olerud363
    26 games left. Assuming Springer can still walk after today, isn't there some Kawhi Leonard like load management thing, where Springer DHs 18/26 games left, Kirk 8, and that optimizes the number of wins? Or do you think Springer every day no matter what optimizes the number of wins?
  5. Olerud363
    Yes. Vladdy makes it to 40 homeruns. Semien still in range of Vladdy in HR just because Semien is crazy hot right now. Vladdy seems to be going opp-field a lot the last week. Maybe a slight adjustment to go with outside pitches (which he is good at), instead of pulling them into the ground.
  6. Olerud363
    His numbers in his 20s are very Randy Johnson'ish. Great k-rate, bad control, breakthrough at 29... control wasn't quite as bad as Johnson's.
  7. Olerud363
    Weird. Weird that Martin isn't playing any more I guess. Looks like he was still a positive player even in 2019. If the power bounced back a bit could of matched the 2.7 WAR Perez put up. Looking at fangraphs Martin's D is mind blowing, so is Molina's. They are the same age. Martin has just as many career WAR in a few hundred less games. Martin was still better in 2019... but retired? While Molina get's 3 more years. I think it's better to be a firey .240 .289 .412 hitter with 17 homeruns and aggressive catching then a patient .250 .350 .400 hitter with 15 homeruns and quietly good defense. The latter get's more WAR per game... but the former gets like 50 times as much credit.
  8. Olerud363
    has more HR than walks many years, sometime twice as many.
  9. Olerud363
    They've gained 2 games against the Yankees and 3 against the As that helps.
  10. Olerud363
    At 20 A-Rod was winning a batting title and had 90+ extra base hits with Seattle.
  11. Olerud363
    I am sure that doesn't really work, can't just go 7-1 for the best hitter in baseball, unless Austin Martin really turned the power on and Woods-Richardson didn't have a 5.x ERA... I guess I'm still sour about this. How did 1.3 years of Marcus Stroman plus the 5th overall pick go back to 1.3 years of Marcus Stroman?
  12. Olerud363
    Austin Martin, Woods-Richardson, Riley Adams, D'Orazzio, Perdoma, and Griffin Conine.
  13. Olerud363
    That's not that point... Vlad or Juan or Soto or anybody varies just as much as Randall. At this point in his life Randal is a .230 hitter and his bad months are .170... his bad 3 months are .200... you notice it more than if Vlad or Juan Soto hit .260 without power for 2 months.
  14. Olerud363
    If you cherry pick August 3rd to August 29th, that is about 25 game stretch where he slugged .330 and had a crazy ground ball rate. At this point if you believe in streaky players, you have to lump Vlad in with Randall... as he deviates from his average just as much if not more.
  15. Olerud363
    I haven't seen the park factors for Buffalo or Dunedin, however the dimensions are pretty standard. In fact I believe Buffalo has the same dimensions as Jacobs Field or whatever it's called in Cleveland (it was designed to be the same when Buffalo was Clevelands farm team). Dunnedin was traditionally known as a tough place to hit for minor leaguers.
  16. Olerud363
    Just mentioned Snider as one of the successful teenagers in A ball, obviously it didn't translate in the majors... He hit .313 with 16 homers in 118 games at Lansing, Vlad hit .320 or so with 13 homers in 120 games, Trout .320 with 11 homers in 90 games Seems like a lot of great hitters, who eventually show huge power have a .300 season with 10-15 homeruns first time in a-ball. I was just curious if there is any reason. Like for example they are coached to cut down there swing and hit for average when young. Martinez is a bit different, more like .265 with more power.
  17. Olerud363
    On MLB Luciano is 5, Orelvis 49, huge difference for 2 players so similar stats wise. Orelvis has better numbers. Orelvis is showing more power. So the scouts must think Luciano is better Scouting grades Luciano: Hit: 55 | Power: 65 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60 Scouting grades Orelvis: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55 Pretty much the same on everything, except Luciano is scouted as having more power even though Orelvis is already showing a bit more.... You rarely see a teenager sell out for big time power. Travis Snider, Vlad, Bo, even Trout they were all like 11, 12 homeruns their first go around low a/ high a. I wonder if Martinez is just stronger already then the other guys (doesn't seem like the case) or just has his own style, selling out for power, and when/if it doesn't work he might cut down on his swing a bit, kind of end up in the same place as Bo, but different direction.
  18. Olerud363
    Is there any evidence Grichuk is prone to slumps? Technically is his standard deviation greater than other hitters? Vladimir Guerrero jr hit .350 with a .490 on base percentage in April... then in June he was like prime McGuire, then in August he hit something like .240 and probably had an almost 4 week stretch between August 2 and Aug 30 (before his 2 homer game Monday) with a sub .300 slugging. Teoscar Hernandez won player of the week then went like 3 for 40 or something. George Springer was injured, then a dissapointment then he won back to back player of the week. So if Randal is true talent .240 .290 .450, his bad months will be like .150 .225 .300 and good .300 .350 .600... but that's not too weird. Everyone else goes up and down around their averages for weeks at a time within a season. So is it just that Randal is a bad hitter so his bad months make it seem way worse? Or is there actual proof he has more variation than the average hitter?
  19. Olerud363
    Well then, this may happen with Polonco. 29 year old 'vet' with a sweet left handed swing. Unless you think Charlie is a racist and only favors white vets with a sweet left handed swing.
  20. Olerud363
    Sort of. Bautista had about 400 games with the Pirates, while Polanco had 800... so yeah given a lot of chances. And he was OK his first few seasons, but absolute garbage the last 3. Polanco's also 2 years older than Bautista was when he joined the Jays. Bautista kind of had 2008 and 2009 to get hitting tips from Murph and Cito, before breaking out in 2010. if Polanco needs the same two years to get hitting tips from Martinez and Bichette he'll be 31 before being ready for a big break out. Unlikely.
  21. Olerud363
    What will happen is Berrios will lay an egg in one of the games with the As, and Austin Martin will have a good night, and it will be obvious that yes it was just a hand injury that sapped the power. And Riley Adams will do something good as Brad hand sits at home. And maybe at some point this month Conine will hit his 40th homer... and yes he will strike out like 200 times in 100 minor games (well not exactly that much but almost), but still... And we will say 'we solved our 40 man roster problem... we didn't win the pennant, we lost some intrigue in the minors, Hand is at home, Berrios lost to the As, but we solved the 40 man roster problem. Something we can hang our hats on!'
  22. Olerud363
    Season will feel like it's over tonight when Harvey beats us. However it won't be. It will be over when As take 2/3 in some soul crushing fashion.
  23. Olerud363
    In retrospect so weird that the was available so cheaply. He is basically Randy Johnson in his 20s with slightly better control. Doesn't mean he'll be Randy Johnson in his 30s, but it's also not as if he came from no where. According to fWAR his 2017 season was about as good as 2021 so far, in the same number of innings. This season will probably end up being better because he'll get 30 more innings pitched.
  24. Olerud363
    What in the hell is going on? There has been peace on the board for the months, and 5 threads basically. Around Baseball Blue Jays thread Minor league thread Fire Charlie thread Send Vlad to Indy ball thread 5 threads, no politics, no covid. If I wanted to know whether Vlad hit grounders or rocket drives, or what stupid thing Charlie did, or if a minor leaguer did good, it was quite easy... Last few days though things seem a bit out of order.
  25. Olerud363
    Note I'm not saying that either Guerrero or Soto is going to hit .350 with 50 homeruns... no idea if either can improve the ground ball rate as they get older or improve that without screwing up something else like becoming a pop-up machine... just that both hit ball mega-hard, have good eyes (Soto better) and have the same super potential if things went right.
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